2015 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2015, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alex Rodriguez 620
373
(246.8)
211
(409.0)
340
(280.5)
407
(213.0)
Delino DeShields 492
119
(372.6)
100
(392.0)
119
(372.6)
100
(392.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yasiel Puig 639 311 328.1
2 Matt Duffy 297 612 315.2
3 Addison Russell 220 523 302.9
4 Cameron Maybin 265 555 289.9
5 Giancarlo Stanton 605 318 286.9
6 Logan Forsythe 330 615 284.7
7 Billy Burns 310 555 245.0
8 Alex Gordon 653 422 230.8
9 Francisco Cervelli 282 510 228.4
10 Leonys Martin 537 310 227.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kris Bryant 100 650 550.0
2 Odúbel Herrera 100 537 437.0
3 Anthony Gose 100 535 435.0
4 Addison Russell 100 523 423.0
5 Mark Canha 100 485 385.0
6 Eddie Rosario 100 474 374.0
7 Matt Duffy 239 612 373.0
8 Jung Ho Kang 100 467 367.0
9 Jace Peterson 234 597 363.0
10 Joc Pederson 227 585 358.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Duffy 100 612 512.5
2 Addison Russell 33 523 489.8
3 Billy Burns 101 555 454.0
4 Carlos Correa 1 432 431.0
5 J.T. Realmuto 62 467 405.1
6 Eddie Rosario 80 474 394.4
7 Cameron Maybin 171 555 383.9
8 Chris Colabello 1 360 359.0
9 Clint Robinson 1 352 351.0
10 Kevin Pillar 290 628 337.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yasiel Puig 656 311 345.0
2 Francisco Cervelli 211 510 299.0
3 Maikel Franco 634 335 299.0
4 Giancarlo Stanton 614 318 296.0
5 AJ Pollock 399 673 274.0
6 Logan Forsythe 357 615 258.0
7 Randal Grichuk 593 350 243.0
8 Alex Gordon 663 422 241.0
9 José Ramírez 584 355 229.0
10 Anthony Rendon 583 355 228.0

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alex Rodriguez 0.0857
0.0498
(19.9)
0.0493
(20.4)
0.0426
(24.2)
0.0570
(15.6)
Nelson Cruz 0.1030
0.0677
(20.7)
0.0700
(19.3)
0.0662
(21.5)
0.0692
(19.9)
Kris Bryant 0.0712
0.0914
(15.6)
0.0416
(16.9)
0.0898
(14.6)
0.0932
(16.6)
Matt Carpenter 0.0656
0.0207
(27.3)
0.0223
(26.4)
0.0217
(26.5)
0.0197
(28.2)
J.D. Martinez 0.0903
0.0567
(19.6)
0.0489
(24.8)
0.0560
(19.9)
0.0574
(19.3)
Justin Bour 0.0744
0.0359
(15.5)
0.0294
(18.5)
0.0384
(14.3)
0.0333
(16.8)
Nolan Arenado 0.0812
0.0383
(26.1)
0.0354
(28.1)
0.0419
(23.5)
0.0346
(28.7)
Bryce Harper 0.1066
0.0649
(24.8)
0.0510
(34.0)
0.0616
(26.8)
0.0683
(22.8)
Manny Machado 0.0663
0.0380
(17.5)
0.0338
(20.6)
0.0388
(16.8)
0.0372
(18.3)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.0192 0.0703 20.4
2 Brandon Moss 0.0896 0.0586 18.3
3 Chase Headley 0.0486 0.0245 17.9
4 Xander Bogaerts 0.0370 0.0135 17.9
5 Adam LaRoche 0.0723 0.0403 17.3
6 José Abreu 0.0843 0.0633 16.5
7 George Springer 0.0888 0.0563 16.3
8 Chris Davis 0.1000 0.1270 15.6
9 Luis Valbuena 0.0407 0.0755 15.3
10 Brandon Crawford 0.0228 0.0536 15.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joc Pederson 0.0325 0.0828 27.4
2 Miguel Sanó 0.0416 0.1111 22.1
3 Josh Donaldson 0.0509 0.0822 19.7
4 Delino DeShields 0.0416 0.0060 19.3
5 Chris Davis 0.0952 0.1270 18.9
6 Mike Trout 0.0676 0.0972 17.7
7 Mark Teixeira 0.0581 0.0994 17.4
8 Carlos González 0.0618 0.0935 17.1
9 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0883 0.1444 16.7
10 Khris Davis 0.0580 0.0989 16.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Xander Bogaerts 0.0412 0.0135 20.7
2 Carlos Correa 0.0185 0.0703 20.7
3 Chris Davis 0.0944 0.1270 19.2
4 José Abreu 0.0875 0.0633 18.8
5 Brandon Moss 0.0878 0.0586 17.4
6 Brandon Crawford 0.0215 0.0536 15.8
7 Luis Valbuena 0.0396 0.0755 15.8
8 Mike Trout 0.0708 0.0972 15.3
9 Mark Teixeira 0.0636 0.0994 14.7
10 Nick Markakis 0.0228 0.0057 14.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chase Headley 0.0559 0.0245 22.4
2 Adam LaRoche 0.0801 0.0403 21.0
3 Carlos Correa 0.0199 0.0703 20.3
4 George Springer 0.0970 0.0563 19.9
5 Delino DeShields 0.0416 0.0060 19.3
6 Brandon Moss 0.0915 0.0586 19.1
7 Luis Valbuena 0.0418 0.0755 14.9
8 Xander Bogaerts 0.0329 0.0135 14.9
9 Brandon Crawford 0.0242 0.0536 14.5
10 Josh Donaldson 0.0583 0.0822 14.5

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jake Marisnick 0.3200
0.1695
(60.6)
0.1282
(74.1)
0.1668
(60.6)
0.1721
(60.5)
Brandon Phillips 0.1345
0.0387
(67.5)
0.0492
(57.7)
0.0329
(69.3)
0.0444
(65.2)
Anthony Rizzo 0.0854
0.0362
(43.3)
0.0397
(37.1)
0.0367
(40.9)
0.0357
(45.1)
Jason Kipnis 0.0674
0.1424
(40.0)
0.1528
(50.0)
0.1294
(33.6)
0.1553
(46.9)
Ryan Braun 0.1633
0.0931
(47.0)
0.1016
(39.2)
0.0790
(53.3)
0.1069
(40.3)
Charlie Blackmon 0.2416
0.1381
(79.1)
0.1324
(79.5)
0.1375
(77.6)
0.1387
(80.2)
Justin Upton 0.1242
0.0609
(47.0)
0.0658
(40.7)
0.0492
(52.4)
0.0723
(41.3)
Carlos González 0.0154
0.1082
(48.8)
0.1196
(58.9)
0.0880
(38.3)
0.1287
(60.0)
Delino DeShields 0.1880
0.2662
(32.3)
0.0598
(66.7)
0.2663
(33.8)
0.0598
(70.3)
AJ Pollock 0.2143
0.1447
(55.2)
0.1183
(69.5)
0.1264
(65.6)
0.1630
(44.3)
Billy Hamilton 0.5327
0.4226
(55.7)
0.3471
(87.6)
0.4369
(47.9)
0.4091
(62.8)
Manny Machado 0.1058
0.0420
(54.4)
0.0381
(53.5)
0.0444
(50.6)
0.0397
(57.6)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joc Pederson 0.1338 0.0256 55.9
2 Jace Peterson 0.1721 0.0795 47.8
3 Jimmy Paredes 0.1748 0.0444 45.2
4 Billy Burns 0.2601 0.1699 43.1
5 Jason Heyward 0.0838 0.1369 40.0
6 Alcides Escobar 0.1746 0.1043 38.2
7 Addison Russell 0.1105 0.0342 33.4
8 Carlos Santana 0.0222 0.0585 32.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kevin Pillar 0.0492 0.1656 77.7
2 Anthony Gose 0.0598 0.1716 63.8
3 Kevin Kiermaier 0.0674 0.1607 53.8
4 Mike Trout 0.1421 0.0564 53.5
5 César Hernández 0.0405 0.1496 52.6
6 Michael A. Taylor 0.0577 0.1416 46.6
7 Alcides Escobar 0.1752 0.1043 42.1
8 Chase Headley 0.0647 0.0000 36.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joc Pederson 0.1284 0.0256 54.5
2 Jason Heyward 0.0807 0.1369 40.1
3 Jimmy Paredes 0.1475 0.0444 35.9
4 Cameron Maybin 0.0976 0.1523 35.7
5 Billy Burns 0.2434 0.1699 35.4
6 Addison Russell 0.1099 0.0342 34.6
7 Jace Peterson 0.1470 0.0795 34.6
8 José Reyes 0.1382 0.1935 33.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jace Peterson 0.1967 0.0795 61.3
2 Joc Pederson 0.1389 0.0256 57.7
3 Jimmy Paredes 0.2039 0.0444 55.6
4 Billy Burns 0.2754 0.1699 50.4
5 Alcides Escobar 0.1849 0.1043 43.7
6 Jason Heyward 0.0870 0.1369 39.4
7 Ben Revere 0.2426 0.1685 37.7
8 Nick Ahmed 0.1395 0.0430 37.6

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Michael Bourn 0.0809
0.1184
(19.7)
0.1253
(22.5)
0.1132
(19.3)
0.1235
(20.0)
Lorenzo Cain 0.1672
0.1082
(33.6)
0.1131
(31.3)
0.1069
(31.7)
0.1094
(35.5)
Josh Donaldson 0.1716
0.1303
(27.0)
0.1291
(28.6)
0.1312
(23.2)
0.1293
(30.8)
DJ LeMahieu 0.1371
0.0941
(24.5)
0.1040
(19.1)
0.0923
(23.0)
0.0960
(26.1)
Delino DeShields 0.1687
0.0987
(32.8)
0.1179
(23.9)
0.0987
(30.6)
0.1179
(25.5)
Bryce Harper 0.1804
0.1326
(29.1)
0.1317
(30.3)
0.1320
(26.6)
0.1332
(31.6)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 AJ Pollock 0.1237 0.1649 25.4
2 Brandon Moss 0.1273 0.0894 21.7
3 Yadier Molina 0.1002 0.0642 20.9
4 Nick Castellanos 0.1022 0.0706 20.8
5 Victor Martinez 0.1197 0.0804 20.7
6 Nolan Arenado 0.1119 0.1459 20.3
7 Pablo Sandoval 0.1218 0.0851 20.2
8 Danny Valencia 0.0996 0.1561 20.1
9 Adam LaRoche 0.1220 0.0847 19.7
10 Melky Cabrera 0.1274 0.1025 19.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Martinez 0.0992 0.1416 26.3
2 Yadier Molina 0.1104 0.0642 25.7
3 AJ Pollock 0.1269 0.1649 24.0
4 Kole Calhoun 0.1457 0.1137 23.6
5 Danny Valencia 0.0924 0.1561 23.2
6 Brandon Moss 0.1306 0.0894 22.9
7 Russell Martin 0.1029 0.1499 22.6
8 Eric Hosmer 0.1107 0.1469 22.6
9 Nolan Arenado 0.1102 0.1459 22.2
10 Chris Colabello 0.0892 0.1528 22.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 AJ Pollock 0.1046 0.1649 35.4
2 Victor Martinez 0.1299 0.0804 27.8
3 Nick Castellanos 0.1061 0.0706 25.8
4 Brandon Moss 0.1284 0.0894 24.6
5 Yadier Molina 0.1021 0.0642 24.2
6 Pablo Sandoval 0.1245 0.0851 23.8
7 Grégor Blanco 0.0880 0.1586 23.4
8 Adam LaRoche 0.1206 0.0847 21.1
9 Matt Duffy 0.0848 0.1258 20.3
10 Gerardo Parra 0.1001 0.1409 19.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nolan Arenado 0.1039 0.1459 28.6
2 Russell Martin 0.1038 0.1499 23.9
3 Danny Valencia 0.0960 0.1561 23.1
4 Kole Calhoun 0.1478 0.1137 22.7
5 J.D. Martinez 0.1082 0.1416 22.6
6 Yunel Escobar 0.0906 0.1269 22.1
7 Jedd Gyorko 0.1234 0.0742 22.0
8 Melky Cabrera 0.1355 0.1025 21.8
9 Ángel Pagán 0.1398 0.0998 21.5
10 Dexter Fowler 0.1179 0.1478 21.4

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Brandon Crawford 0.1497
0.1010
(26.5)
0.1019
(25.0)
0.0892
(31.5)
0.1128
(21.5)
Josh Donaldson 0.1730
0.1417
(21.1)
0.1324
(26.6)
0.1400
(20.3)
0.1435
(21.9)
Kendrys Morales 0.1659
0.1274
(23.6)
0.1190
(27.8)
0.1221
(25.1)
0.1328
(22.0)
Nolan Arenado 0.1955
0.1253
(45.6)
0.1142
(51.9)
0.1326
(38.9)
0.1180
(52.5)
Justin Bour 0.1637
0.1126
(22.1)
0.1107
(22.2)
0.1087
(22.6)
0.1166
(21.6)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.0935 0.1574 26.9
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.1397 0.0931 24.3
3 George Springer 0.1422 0.0909 23.9
4 Adam LaRoche 0.1384 0.0909 23.8
5 Marcus Semien 0.1125 0.0749 23.6
6 Mark Trumbo 0.1576 0.1174 22.8
7 Marcell Ozuna 0.1333 0.0891 22.7
8 Matt Carpenter 0.0909 0.1263 22.5
9 Matt Duffy 0.0902 0.1258 20.8
10 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0924 0.1256 20.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Gose 0.1132 0.0486 36.3
2 Bryce Harper 0.0994 0.1514 31.9
3 Justin Smoak 0.1000 0.1799 25.1
4 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0851 0.1256 24.3
5 Starling Marte 0.0879 0.1280 23.3
6 Kris Bryant 0.1132 0.1523 23.3
7 Adam LaRoche 0.1352 0.0909 23.0
8 Ian Desmond 0.1293 0.0967 23.0
9 David Peralta 0.1037 0.1509 22.7
10 Xander Bogaerts 0.0865 0.1239 22.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.0826 0.1574 30.4
2 Matt Carpenter 0.0833 0.1263 25.7
3 Pablo Sandoval 0.1382 0.0931 25.0
4 Marcus Semien 0.1114 0.0749 24.6
5 Anthony Gose 0.0894 0.0486 24.2
6 Matt Duffy 0.0832 0.1258 23.4
7 Daniel Murphy 0.0897 0.1357 22.4
8 Mike Zunino 0.1248 0.0725 21.9
9 Brandon Moss 0.1474 0.1103 21.8
10 Ryan Zimmerman 0.1272 0.1872 21.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mark Trumbo 0.1780 0.1174 32.3
2 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0821 0.1256 29.2
3 Adam LaRoche 0.1498 0.0909 27.8
4 Bryce Harper 0.1107 0.1514 27.5
5 George Springer 0.1501 0.0909 26.1
6 Gregory Polanco 0.1193 0.0798 24.9
7 Xander Bogaerts 0.0873 0.1239 24.8
8 Marcell Ozuna 0.1402 0.0891 24.6
9 Pablo Sandoval 0.1412 0.0931 23.6
10 Carlos Correa 0.1044 0.1574 23.5

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Nelson Cruz 0.3017
0.2496
(30.1)
0.2654
(22.3)
0.2497
(28.7)
0.2496
(31.6)
Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3333
0.2686
(38.2)
0.2680
(41.2)
0.2557
(45.3)
0.2814
(31.3)
Jason Kipnis 0.3027
0.2544
(27.0)
0.2593
(26.3)
0.2525
(26.9)
0.2563
(27.2)
Xander Bogaerts 0.3197
0.2612
(34.3)
0.2431
(48.7)
0.2596
(34.0)
0.2628
(34.7)
Matt Duffy 0.2949
0.2478
(25.1)
0.2535
(24.0)
0.2478
(23.9)
0.2478
(26.4)
Logan Forsythe 0.2815
0.2281
(29.1)
0.2394
(24.5)
0.2321
(25.3)
0.2240
(32.9)
Omar Infante 0.2205
0.2712
(25.9)
0.2735
(25.2)
0.2737
(27.9)
0.2687
(23.8)
Torii Hunter 0.2399
0.2818
(27.2)
0.2926
(31.1)
0.2850
(30.2)
0.2787
(24.3)
Victor Martinez 0.2455
0.3057
(32.2)
0.3072
(31.1)
0.3082
(34.4)
0.3033
(30.0)
Chris Colabello 0.3213
0.2378
(27.8)
0.2305
(31.9)
0.2460
(24.2)
0.2298
(31.5)
Bryce Harper 0.3301
0.2794
(29.2)
0.2689
(38.5)
0.2787
(28.3)
0.2800
(30.2)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Billy Burns 0.2309 0.2942 31.7
2 Francisco Lindor 0.2391 0.3128 29.6
3 AJ Pollock 0.2715 0.3153 25.3
4 Jayson Werth 0.2807 0.2205 25.1
5 Chris Owings 0.2636 0.2272 23.5
6 Pablo Sandoval 0.2850 0.2447 23.5
7 Ian Desmond 0.2633 0.2333 23.2
8 Yunel Escobar 0.2693 0.3140 22.8
9 Wilson Ramos 0.2682 0.2295 22.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yunel Escobar 0.2549 0.3140 33.6
2 Mike Moustakas 0.2306 0.2842 31.5
3 Jayson Werth 0.2931 0.2205 28.3
4 AJ Pollock 0.2722 0.3153 27.4
5 Nick Hundley 0.2284 0.3005 27.2
6 Chase Utley 0.2693 0.2118 25.3
7 René Rivera 0.2530 0.1779 24.7
8 Ian Desmond 0.2690 0.2333 24.4
9 Adam LaRoche 0.2543 0.2075 23.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Billy Burns 0.2281 0.2942 32.2
2 AJ Pollock 0.2604 0.3153 31.4
3 Francisco Lindor 0.2341 0.3128 30.9
4 Jayson Werth 0.2857 0.2205 27.7
5 Pablo Sandoval 0.2913 0.2447 27.6
6 Odúbel Herrera 0.2395 0.2970 26.5
7 Wilson Ramos 0.2693 0.2295 24.2
8 Ender Inciarte 0.2545 0.3034 22.9
9 Chase Utley 0.2564 0.2118 22.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Billy Burns 0.2338 0.2942 31.4
2 Chris Owings 0.2755 0.2272 28.9
3 Francisco Lindor 0.2441 0.3128 28.4
4 Prince Fielder 0.2618 0.3051 27.2
5 Yunel Escobar 0.2676 0.3140 25.1
6 Jung Ho Kang 0.2301 0.2874 24.9
7 Ian Desmond 0.2679 0.2333 24.8
8 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2829 0.3210 23.7
9 Mike Moustakas 0.2418 0.2842 23.5

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Brett Anderson 750
272
(478.2)
316
(434.0)
308
(442.4)
236
(514.1)
Jordan Lyles 212
637
(425.0)
610
(398.0)
628
(415.9)
646
(434.1)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Holland 713 245 468.1
2 Justin Masterson 716 273 443.3
3 Chris Heston 304 746 442.4
4 Matt Cain 667 271 395.9
5 Daniel Norris 589 251 337.6
6 Michael Lorenzen 185 515 330.4
7 Justin Verlander 864 535 328.7
8 Tim Lincecum 659 333 326.3
9 Jarred Cosart 619 296 323.4
10 Mike Pelfrey 392 714 322.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Heston 169 746 577.0
2 Anthony DeSclafani 241 785 544.0
3 Carlos Rodón 100 607 507.0
4 Noah Syndergaard 100 603 503.0
5 Matt Harvey 320 755 435.0
6 Eduardo Rodriguez 100 522 422.0
7 Lance McCullers Jr. 100 520 420.0
8 Carlos Martinez 336 755 419.0
9 Michael Lorenzen 100 515 415.0
10 Williams Pérez 100 514 414.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Heston 4 746 741.7
2 Derek Holland 864 245 619.2
3 Chris Rusin 4 594 589.7
4 Lance McCullers Jr. 5 520 515.4
5 Michael Lorenzen 4 515 510.6
6 Williams Pérez 4 514 509.6
7 Carlos Rodón 100 607 507.0
8 Matt Cain 763 271 491.8
9 Trevor May 39 492 452.6
10 Justin Masterson 724 273 451.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Liam Hendriks 730 261 469.0
2 Justin Masterson 708 273 435.1
3 Kyle Lobstein 710 280 430.1
4 Edwin Jackson 651 228 423.0
5 Mike Pelfrey 301 714 413.1
6 Colby Lewis 451 861 410.0
7 Jerad Eickhoff 607 203 404.1
8 Mike Wright Jr. 605 204 400.9
9 Kyle Ryan 630 237 392.9
10 Aaron Brooks 635 250 385.0

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jake Arrieta 0.2713
0.2264
(33.6)
0.2314
(33.8)
0.2335
(29.3)
0.2193
(37.9)
Chris Archer 0.2903
0.2051
(68.5)
0.2069
(71.5)
0.2070
(68.8)
0.2033
(68.2)
Kyle Hendricks 0.2260
0.1678
(38.4)
0.1762
(36.0)
0.1729
(36.2)
0.1627
(40.5)
Jeff Samardzija 0.1791
0.2294
(51.4)
0.2284
(45.8)
0.2211
(41.9)
0.2376
(61.0)
Carlos Carrasco 0.2959
0.2236
(48.2)
0.2232
(52.3)
0.2287
(46.1)
0.2185
(50.3)
R.A. Dickey 0.1425
0.1825
(40.9)
0.1995
(51.3)
0.1832
(39.5)
0.1818
(42.2)
Phil Hughes 0.1444
0.2057
(44.0)
0.2061
(40.9)
0.1993
(38.4)
0.2120
(49.5)
Chris Sale 0.3208
0.2749
(33.9)
0.2619
(49.4)
0.2835
(28.4)
0.2662
(39.4)
Clayton Kershaw 0.3382
0.2855
(41.4)
0.2673
(62.2)
0.2886
(40.5)
0.2823
(42.2)
Travis Wood 0.2816
0.1786
(40.5)
0.1861
(39.6)
0.1781
(41.7)
0.1791
(39.4)
Dallas Keuchel 0.2371
0.1740
(51.8)
0.1795
(51.6)
0.1748
(53.1)
0.1731
(50.6)
Alex Wood 0.1735
0.2233
(44.9)
0.2296
(45.7)
0.2265
(45.7)
0.2200
(44.0)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.1877 0.1261 37.1
2 Jacob deGrom 0.2175 0.2730 37.0
3 Brett Anderson 0.1961 0.1547 35.8
4 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1783 0.2481 33.0
5 Jered Weaver 0.1761 0.1345 32.0
6 Matt Garza 0.1971 0.1562 31.5
7 Carlos Martinez 0.1967 0.2437 30.8
8 Wily Peralta 0.1815 0.1255 29.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Noah Syndergaard 0.2059 0.2753 41.2
2 Mark Buehrle 0.1582 0.1100 40.7
3 James Shields 0.2042 0.2512 39.5
4 Justin Nicolino 0.2059 0.0764 39.3
5 Jered Weaver 0.1911 0.1345 38.6
6 Max Scherzer 0.2677 0.3070 34.4
7 Dellin Betances 0.2917 0.3946 33.8
8 Williams Pérez 0.2059 0.1420 33.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.1901 0.1261 37.2
2 Jacob deGrom 0.2201 0.2730 36.7
3 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1769 0.2481 34.9
4 Carlos Martinez 0.1974 0.2437 31.9
5 Brett Anderson 0.1930 0.1547 31.8
6 Matt Garza 0.1982 0.1562 30.7
7 Wily Peralta 0.1849 0.1255 30.3
8 Mark Buehrle 0.1425 0.1100 30.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Anderson 0.1992 0.1547 39.8
2 Jered Weaver 0.1830 0.1345 38.1
3 Jacob deGrom 0.2149 0.2730 37.2
4 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.1853 0.1261 37.0
5 Yovani Gallardo 0.1892 0.1526 35.8
6 Matt Garza 0.1960 0.1562 32.2
7 Marco Estrada 0.2156 0.1807 31.5
8 Jonathon Niese 0.1788 0.1468 31.2

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jake Arrieta 0.6667
0.3446
(275.2)
0.2222
(328.0)
0.3825
(237.5)
0.3103
(320.6)
Zack Greinke 0.5938
0.4257
(136.8)
0.3684
(133.1)
0.4181
(138.6)
0.4333
(145.5)
Michael Wacha 0.5667
0.3447
(164.7)
0.1765
(246.0)
0.3717
(140.0)
0.3200
(197.3)
Collin McHugh 0.5938
0.3646
(191.9)
0.2162
(266.4)
0.3623
(189.2)
0.3667
(205.6)
Colby Lewis 0.5152
0.3332
(151.7)
0.2222
(194.2)
0.3331
(147.1)
0.3333
(167.1)
Kyle Lohse 0.1351
0.3395
(139.8)
0.2973
(152.6)
0.3327
(138.9)
0.3462
(132.2)
Dallas Keuchel 0.6061
0.3870
(194.3)
0.2250
(285.8)
0.3816
(194.3)
0.3929
(205.4)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marco Estrada 0.1197 0.3824 186.2
2 Corey Kluber 0.4603 0.2812 163.7
3 Carlos Carrasco 0.2518 0.4667 152.7
4 Josh Tomlin 0.1177 0.7000 144.7
5 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1902 0.3750 141.6
6 Chad Bettis 0.1130 0.4000 141.2
7 Shelby Miller 0.3366 0.1818 138.1
8 Chris Heston 0.1987 0.3871 136.2
9 Gerrit Cole 0.4242 0.5938 136.2
10 Nathan Eovaldi 0.3104 0.5185 136.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Martinez 0.0682 0.4516 238.6
2 Nathan Eovaldi 0.1707 0.5185 188.7
3 Rubby De La Rosa 0.1471 0.4375 180.5
4 Carlos Carrasco 0.1538 0.4667 179.2
5 Gerrit Cole 0.3143 0.5938 176.5
6 Danny Salazar 0.1714 0.4667 172.5
7 Félix Hernández 0.3077 0.5806 169.8
8 Garrett Richards 0.2143 0.4688 161.8
9 Chris Heston 0.1111 0.3871 155.6
10 Matt Harvey 0.1905 0.4483 143.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marco Estrada 0.0852 0.3824 207.3
2 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1330 0.3750 182.6
3 Chris Heston 0.1384 0.3871 177.2
4 Gerrit Cole 0.3849 0.5938 164.4
5 Josh Tomlin 0.0816 0.7000 152.4
6 Corey Kluber 0.4375 0.2812 148.4
7 Chad Bettis 0.0951 0.4000 147.4
8 CC Sabathia 0.3698 0.2069 126.4
9 Andrew Cashner 0.3380 0.1935 125.2
10 Scott Kazmir 0.3771 0.2258 124.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Carrasco 0.1714 0.4667 224.5
2 Johnny Cueto 0.5556 0.3438 172.8
3 Corey Kluber 0.4839 0.2812 168.7
4 Nathan Eovaldi 0.2857 0.5185 164.9
5 Tanner Roark 0.4643 0.1000 164.4
6 Shelby Miller 0.3667 0.1818 148.4
7 Rubby De La Rosa 0.2759 0.4375 140.7
8 Chad Bettis 0.1389 0.4000 137.2
9 Félix Hernández 0.4375 0.5806 128.3
10 CC Sabathia 0.3889 0.2069 123.2

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Andrew Miller 0.6000
0.1705
(103.7)
0.0204
(146.4)
0.1831
(100.7)
0.0000
(139.9)
Brad Ziegler 0.4545
0.0416
(106.5)
0.0577
(108.4)
0.0431
(106.2)
0.0000
(111.4)
Brad Boxberger 0.5942
0.1401
(120.9)
0.0488
(152.0)
0.1292
(123.9)
0.0000
(152.6)
Shawn Tolleson 0.4795
0.0480
(126.2)
0.0244
(140.2)
0.0462
(126.8)
0.0000
(133.6)
AJ Ramos 0.4507
0.0185
(117.5)
0.0208
(123.4)
0.0182
(117.7)
0.0000
(116.2)
Francisco Rodríguez 0.6333
0.3366
(62.4)
0.3265
(69.6)
0.3477
(60.0)
0.0000
(130.1)
Jeurys Familia 0.5658
0.1045
(139.6)
0.0652
(158.9)
0.1036
(140.0)
0.0000
(164.7)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joaquín Benoit 0.5148 0.0299 125.2
2 Steve Cishek 0.5126 0.0678 110.0
3 Addison Reed 0.4925 0.0727 103.1
4 Dellin Betances 0.4109 0.1216 98.7
5 John Axford 0.0385 0.4167 92.5
6 Fernando Rodney 0.5192 0.2353 80.9
7 Roberto Osuna 0.0000 0.2941 77.5
8 Brett Cecil 0.3931 0.0794 68.8
9 Neftalí Feliz 0.5066 0.2083 64.9
10 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.0183 0.2453 58.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Rosenthal 0.2830 0.7059 125.8
2 Mark Melancon 0.2692 0.6538 117.2
3 Luke Gregerson 0.0556 0.4844 106.2
4 Cody Allen 0.1636 0.4857 96.5
5 Drew Storen 0.1020 0.5000 94.3
6 Santiago Casilla 0.2045 0.5672 92.3
7 David Robertson 0.2653 0.5667 79.2
8 Addison Reed 0.4167 0.0727 79.2
9 Steve Cishek 0.4000 0.0678 77.0
10 Roberto Osuna 0.0313 0.2941 75.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joaquín Benoit 0.5246 0.0299 127.6
2 Steve Cishek 0.5138 0.0678 110.3
3 Addison Reed 0.4954 0.0727 103.7
4 John Axford 0.0400 0.4167 92.2
5 Dellin Betances 0.3677 0.1216 84.3
6 Fernando Rodney 0.5169 0.2353 80.2
7 Roberto Osuna 0.0000 0.2941 77.6
8 Brett Cecil 0.4000 0.0794 70.3
9 Neftalí Feliz 0.5123 0.2083 66.1
10 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.0169 0.2453 58.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0000 0.7059 193.7
2 Mark Melancon 0.0000 0.6538 182.5
3 Huston Street 0.0000 0.6452 156.6
4 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.6393 145.4
5 Zack Britton 0.0000 0.5625 134.4
6 David Robertson 0.0000 0.5667 133.9
7 Aroldis Chapman 0.0000 0.5077 132.5
8 Santiago Casilla 0.0000 0.5672 130.8
9 Cody Allen 0.0000 0.4857 130.0
10 Kenley Jansen 0.0000 0.6667 127.1

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Aníbal Sánchez 4.9873
3.5507
(984.7)
3.3500
(998.8)
3.6654
(887.4)
3.4342
(1080.1)
Jake Arrieta 1.7686
3.6222
(1564.4)
3.6200
(1718.5)
3.5710
(1548.3)
3.6747
(1585.7)
Kyle Kendrick 6.3232
4.8810
(942.0)
4.3840
(1141.9)
4.7756
(987.7)
4.9880
(892.4)
Shane Greene 6.8845
4.4456
(930.4)
3.7576
(1120.1)
4.4149
(929.6)
4.4776
(928.9)
Zack Greinke 1.6572
3.0446
(1122.8)
3.0457
(1274.9)
3.0256
(1134.4)
3.0638
(1115.4)
Jeff Samardzija 4.9626
3.9150
(1003.8)
3.5887
(1137.6)
3.9328
(957.8)
3.8969
(1045.8)
Matt Garza 5.6300
3.9595
(1149.5)
3.7548
(1166.4)
4.0978
(1035.6)
3.8217
(1260.0)
Matthew Boyd 7.5349
4.1400
(869.5)
3.8355
(901.0)
4.1382
(861.7)
3.8355
(953.3)
Odrisamer Despaigne 5.8011
3.8956
(1072.6)
3.5570
(1159.8)
4.1383
(922.0)
3.6516
(1221.5)
Jeremy Guthrie 5.9461
4.4078
(1058.3)
4.1461
(1112.9)
4.4238
(1025.9)
4.3916
(1087.6)
Bud Norris 6.7229
4.1317
(997.8)
3.9598
(995.0)
4.0549
(1014.4)
4.2109
(978.5)
Kyle Lohse 5.8490
4.1063
(1195.8)
3.4516
(1511.9)
4.3017
(1044.1)
3.9130
(1342.9)
Dallas Keuchel 2.4828
3.7637
(1116.4)
3.8364
(1346.0)
3.7253
(1111.2)
3.8028
(1126.5)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 5.6547 3.2228 1235.7
2 Drew Hutchison 4.1391 5.5676 985.4
3 Cody Anderson 5.6279 3.0547 918.9
4 Rick Porcello 3.7861 4.9186 875.6
5 David Buchanan 4.6038 6.9911 857.4
6 David Price 3.4497 2.4508 837.8
7 Ross Detwiler 4.6004 7.2514 779.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alfredo Simon 3.4034 5.0535 1251.5
2 David Buchanan 3.7934 6.9911 1078.9
3 Chris Tillman 3.5228 4.9942 998.5
4 John Lackey 3.7306 2.7661 975.2
5 Gerrit Cole 3.6225 2.5962 957.0
6 Ross Detwiler 3.8272 7.2514 950.5
7 David Hale 3.4433 6.0894 872.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 5.2569 3.2228 1045.9
2 Drew Hutchison 4.0565 5.5676 1018.5
3 Chris Rusin 3.8520 5.3316 892.4
4 Shelby Miller 4.0562 3.0244 867.8
5 Yovani Gallardo 4.5238 3.4177 859.1
6 David Buchanan 4.5718 6.9911 857.2
7 Jacob deGrom 3.6968 2.5445 848.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 6.0772 3.2228 1440.9
2 Cody Anderson 6.3391 3.0547 1168.3
3 David Price 3.6735 2.4508 1011.6
4 Drew Hutchison 4.2234 5.5676 948.0
5 Rick Porcello 3.7235 4.9186 942.4
6 Andrew Cashner 3.2739 4.3375 922.3
7 Marco Estrada 4.4366 3.1326 884.9

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jake Arrieta 0.8646
1.2526
(320.6)
1.1650
(265.7)
1.2290
(308.8)
1.2767
(334.8)
Gio Gonzalez 1.4231
1.2512
(145.0)
1.2184
(151.4)
1.2575
(132.7)
1.2449
(155.8)
Zack Greinke 0.8443
1.1211
(217.0)
1.1788
(286.1)
1.1199
(224.4)
1.1223
(211.4)
David Buchanan 1.8482
1.3976
(165.0)
1.2893
(194.5)
1.3980
(161.3)
1.3973
(167.8)
Andrew Cashner 1.4404
1.2171
(195.1)
1.1810
(204.6)
1.2465
(163.5)
1.1878
(225.0)
Matt Garza 1.5673
1.2603
(217.4)
1.2195
(228.3)
1.2893
(191.4)
1.2314
(241.9)
Jacob deGrom 0.9791
1.2225
(168.2)
1.2073
(175.1)
1.2286
(180.3)
1.2163
(157.7)
Ross Detwiler 2.0229
1.4161
(180.3)
1.3443
(194.0)
1.4486
(168.1)
1.3834
(192.0)
Dallas Keuchel 1.0172
1.2904
(231.2)
1.3134
(274.3)
1.3078
(256.1)
1.2728
(208.0)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 1.6821 1.1857 248.0
2 Raisel Iglesias 1.5920 1.1434 169.6
3 James Shields 1.1617 1.3344 165.2
4 Kyle Lohse 1.2503 1.4639 155.0
5 Drew Hutchison 1.2704 1.4834 154.3
6 Roberto Osuna 1.4947 0.9187 150.8
7 Cody Anderson 1.5366 1.1058 150.2
8 Jeremy Guthrie 1.3456 1.5506 149.0
9 Sonny Gray 1.2778 1.0817 146.8
10 Chris Rusin 1.3941 1.6025 135.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Max Scherzer 1.1496 0.9184 212.3
2 Michael Lorenzen 1.2682 1.6588 198.6
3 Kyle Lohse 1.1734 1.4639 189.9
4 Alfredo Simon 1.2185 1.4385 176.3
5 Erasmo Ramírez 1.3772 1.1327 166.2
6 Eddie Butler 1.3714 1.8151 162.3
7 Chris Rusin 1.3522 1.6025 145.8
8 Colby Lewis 1.4004 1.2362 145.7
9 Williams Pérez 1.2682 1.5514 143.0
10 Danny Salazar 1.3079 1.1297 138.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 1.6007 1.1857 210.9
2 Chris Rusin 1.2829 1.6025 195.5
3 Sonny Gray 1.2978 1.0817 171.7
4 Drew Hutchison 1.2589 1.4834 155.3
5 Roberto Osuna 1.4947 0.9187 153.5
6 Jeremy Guthrie 1.3537 1.5506 137.0
7 CC Sabathia 1.2452 1.4223 135.4
8 Max Scherzer 1.0750 0.9184 132.4
9 Chris Archer 1.2947 1.1368 128.9
10 Erasmo Ramírez 1.3344 1.1327 128.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 1.7685 1.1857 288.9
2 James Shields 1.1285 1.3344 200.6
3 Kyle Lohse 1.2064 1.4639 189.4
4 Cody Anderson 1.6174 1.1058 176.8
5 Julio Teheran 1.1324 1.3056 169.1
6 Raisel Iglesias 1.5920 1.1434 166.4
7 Jeremy Guthrie 1.3373 1.5506 159.7
8 Drew Hutchison 1.2822 1.4834 151.7
9 Alex Wood 1.1978 1.3550 147.8
10 Jerome Williams 1.3873 1.6116 139.1