2013 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2013, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Yasiel Puig 432
100
(332.0)
100
(332.0)
100
(332.0)
100
(332.0)
Ed Lucas 384
100
(284.0)
100
(284.0)
100
(284.0)
100
(284.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ángel Pagán 647 305 341.9
2 Matt Carpenter 412 717 305.1
3 Ben Revere 640 336 303.8
4 Josh Rutledge 614 314 299.9
5 Jed Lowrie 370 662 292.2
6 Marlon Byrd 296 579 283.4
7 Eric Young Jr. 318 598 280.4
8 Aaron Hill 633 362 271.0
9 Lyle Overbay 217 486 269.1
10 Dustin Ackley 693 427 265.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jedd Gyorko 100 525 425.0
2 Nolan Arenado 100 514 414.0
3 Victor Martinez 255 668 413.0
4 Manny Machado 315 710 395.0
5 Andrelton Simmons 300 658 358.0
6 Matt Carpenter 374 717 343.0
7 Brett Gardner 276 609 333.0
8 Jean Segura 293 623 330.0
9 Juan Lagares 100 421 321.0
10 Matt Dominguez 269 589 320.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Dozier 205 623 417.9
2 Matt Carpenter 328 717 389.2
3 Lyle Overbay 104 486 382.2
4 Ángel Pagán 684 305 378.8
5 JB Shuck 100 478 378.0
6 Marlon Byrd 219 579 359.8
7 Eric Young Jr. 258 598 339.8
8 Daniel Nava 203 536 333.2
9 Brandon Barnes 116 445 328.6
10 Juan Lagares 100 421 321.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Rutledge 670 314 356.0
2 Brad Miller 666 335 331.0
3 Jed Lowrie 332 662 330.0
4 Ángel Pagán 610 305 305.0
5 Ben Revere 639 336 303.0
6 Aaron Hicks 603 313 290.0
7 Jurickson Profar 610 324 286.0
8 Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 584 307 277.0
9 David Lough 606 335 271.0
10 Melky Cabrera 641 372 269.0

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jimmy Rollins 0.0117
0.0343
(15.1)
0.0361
(15.9)
0.0322
(13.6)
0.0364
(16.4)
Jason Castro 0.0583
0.0248
(16.4)
0.0282
(15.0)
0.0268
(15.5)
0.0228
(17.4)
Chris Davis 0.1352
0.0758
(40.0)
0.0640
(48.2)
0.0792
(37.7)
0.0723
(42.4)
Miguel Cabrera 0.0950
0.0716
(15.3)
0.0713
(15.8)
0.0712
(15.5)
0.0720
(15.0)
Marlon Byrd 0.0606
0.0254
(20.4)
0.0249
(20.9)
0.0263
(19.9)
0.0245
(20.9)
Carlos González 0.0942
0.0648
(12.8)
0.0593
(15.4)
0.0642
(13.1)
0.0655
(12.5)
Raul Ibanez 0.0890
0.0418
(23.4)
0.0448
(22.1)
0.0403
(24.1)
0.0432
(22.7)
Paul Konerko 0.0302
0.0607
(15.9)
0.0648
(17.8)
0.0590
(14.9)
0.0625
(16.8)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brandon Moss 0.0624 0.0971 17.5
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.0697 0.0478 15.1
3 Brian Dozier 0.0167 0.0404 14.8
4 Coco Crisp 0.0230 0.0480 14.6
5 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1106 0.0839 13.5
6 Dustin Pedroia 0.0335 0.0157 12.9
7 Allen Craig 0.0543 0.0315 12.8
8 Ben Zobrist 0.0408 0.0227 12.6
9 Prince Fielder 0.0665 0.0489 12.5
10 Will Venable 0.0361 0.0601 12.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Pedro Álvarez 0.0612 0.0957 21.5
2 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0487 0.0778 21.0
3 Domonic Brown 0.0336 0.0670 18.3
4 Chris Carter 0.0667 0.0970 18.0
5 Josh Hamilton 0.0752 0.0492 16.2
6 Juan Francisco 0.0474 0.0849 14.6
7 Matt Adams 0.0339 0.0787 14.4
8 Jayson Werth 0.0421 0.0683 14.2
9 Evan Gattis 0.0394 0.0761 14.2
10 Nate Schierholtz 0.0290 0.0561 13.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brandon Moss 0.0640 0.0971 16.7
2 Pedro Álvarez 0.0703 0.0957 15.7
3 Anthony Rizzo 0.0698 0.0478 15.1
4 Domonic Brown 0.0392 0.0670 15.0
5 Brian Dozier 0.0166 0.0404 14.8
6 Coco Crisp 0.0242 0.0480 13.9
7 Allen Craig 0.0562 0.0315 13.9
8 Prince Fielder 0.0679 0.0489 13.4
9 Will Venable 0.0355 0.0601 12.7
10 Ben Zobrist 0.0405 0.0227 12.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brandon Moss 0.0607 0.0971 18.4
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1145 0.0839 15.4
3 Coco Crisp 0.0218 0.0480 15.3
4 Anthony Rizzo 0.0695 0.0478 15.0
5 Brian Dozier 0.0167 0.0404 14.7
6 Dustin Pedroia 0.0350 0.0157 13.9
7 Carlos Pena 0.0845 0.0423 13.8
8 Ben Zobrist 0.0410 0.0227 12.7
9 Andrelton Simmons 0.0113 0.0304 12.5
10 Joey Votto 0.0705 0.0535 12.3

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Rajai Davis 0.5114
0.3216
(69.7)
0.3455
(64.2)
0.2857
(79.4)
0.3585
(59.7)
Daniel Murphy 0.1377
0.0461
(66.5)
0.0567
(65.2)
0.0404
(64.2)
0.0517
(69.0)
Elvis Andrus 0.2111
0.1210
(65.5)
0.1381
(59.7)
0.0971
(75.9)
0.1450
(55.2)
DJ LeMahieu 0.1682
0.0628
(47.4)
0.0357
(62.9)
0.0503
(48.9)
0.0750
(46.1)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.2955
0.1779
(77.2)
0.1759
(84.0)
0.1481
(90.4)
0.2091
(63.2)
Coco Crisp 0.1419
0.2616
(67.7)
0.2951
(82.1)
0.2382
(59.3)
0.2857
(76.4)
Starling Marte 0.2847
0.1613
(72.0)
0.1594
(78.0)
0.1341
(82.3)
0.1905
(60.7)
Nate McLouth 0.2041
0.0992
(64.4)
0.0957
(71.7)
0.0957
(61.2)
0.1028
(67.8)
Alexei Ramirez 0.1840
0.0776
(74.3)
0.0882
(73.0)
0.0690
(74.0)
0.0861
(74.8)
Leonys Martin 0.3000
0.1355
(85.5)
0.1176
(99.0)
0.1103
(93.7)
0.1613
(77.1)
Alfonso Soriano 0.1475
0.0340
(73.5)
0.0446
(72.3)
0.0301
(70.3)
0.0381
(76.7)
Hunter Pence 0.1325
0.0419
(64.8)
0.0596
(58.7)
0.0284
(68.0)
0.0559
(61.6)
Alex Rios 0.2642
0.1251
(94.5)
0.1473
(85.7)
0.1014
(104.3)
0.1493
(84.7)
Jean Segura 0.2716
0.1633
(69.9)
0.1067
(110.6)
0.1347
(82.1)
0.1912
(58.2)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Young Jr. 0.2325 0.3151 51.7
2 Mike Trout 0.2164 0.1410 51.3
3 Brett Gardner 0.2332 0.1538 46.0
4 Clete Thomas 0.1452 0.0135 41.2
5 Maicer Izturis 0.1115 0.0103 38.9
6 Jason Kipnis 0.1098 0.1648 38.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Young Jr. 0.2418 0.3151 51.3
2 Brett Gardner 0.2405 0.1538 45.1
3 Michael Bourn 0.2442 0.1565 43.2
4 Mike Trout 0.2119 0.1410 41.8
5 B.J. Upton 0.2308 0.1250 41.6
6 Pedro Florimón 0.0794 0.1531 38.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Young Jr. 0.1833 0.3151 75.7
2 Jose Altuve 0.1242 0.2023 49.0
3 Carlos González 0.0933 0.2000 44.3
4 Juan Pierre 0.1640 0.2949 41.5
5 Maicer Izturis 0.1071 0.0103 40.7
6 Jason Kipnis 0.1021 0.1648 37.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Trout 0.2582 0.1410 74.6
2 Brett Gardner 0.2772 0.1538 67.2
3 Starlin Castro 0.1420 0.0584 49.8
4 Grégor Blanco 0.2000 0.0952 46.9
5 Clete Thomas 0.1690 0.0135 45.9
6 Michael Bourn 0.2473 0.1565 44.8

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jimmy Rollins 0.0976
0.1345
(22.6)
0.1362
(22.7)
0.1290
(19.0)
0.1399
(26.2)
Starlin Castro 0.0837
0.1245
(26.7)
0.1158
(19.5)
0.1240
(26.3)
0.1250
(27.0)
Matt Holliday 0.1711
0.1334
(24.5)
0.1412
(20.7)
0.1354
(23.3)
0.1314
(25.7)
Jayson Werth 0.1579
0.1249
(19.1)
0.1256
(19.6)
0.1281
(17.4)
0.1218
(20.8)
B.J. Upton 0.0673
0.1327
(27.9)
0.1293
(25.7)
0.1282
(25.9)
0.1371
(29.8)
Chris Davis 0.1530
0.1202
(24.1)
0.1201
(25.2)
0.1279
(18.9)
0.1125
(29.3)
Matt Carpenter 0.1757
0.1060
(52.1)
0.1203
(42.9)
0.1052
(52.7)
0.1069
(51.5)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Pablo Sandoval 0.1293 0.0890 21.8
2 Daniel Nava 0.1072 0.1437 21.1
3 Adeiny Hechavarría 0.0909 0.0519 20.8
4 Marlon Byrd 0.0977 0.1295 20.1
5 Anthony Rizzo 0.1342 0.1029 19.6
6 Paul Konerko 0.1189 0.0788 19.3
7 Hanley Ramirez 0.1336 0.1845 18.1
8 Jose Altuve 0.1244 0.0952 17.6
9 Yasiel Puig 0.1155 0.1528 17.4
10 Josh Willingham 0.1290 0.0892 17.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Starling Marte 0.1074 0.1466 24.7
2 Adeiny Hechavarría 0.0975 0.0519 23.8
3 Shin-Soo Choo 0.1217 0.1503 23.5
4 Josh Hamilton 0.1517 0.1148 20.6
5 Coco Crisp 0.1287 0.1592 20.4
6 Trevor Plouffe 0.1277 0.0843 20.3
7 Brandon Belt 0.1026 0.1331 20.0
8 Hanley Ramirez 0.1298 0.1845 19.9
9 Adam Lind 0.0956 0.1286 19.5
10 Daniel Murphy 0.1087 0.1320 19.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Paul Konerko 0.1304 0.0788 25.3
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.1343 0.0890 24.7
3 Marlon Byrd 0.0906 0.1295 24.3
4 Prince Fielder 0.1519 0.1152 24.0
5 Billy Butler 0.1317 0.0928 24.0
6 Anthony Rizzo 0.1361 0.1029 20.8
7 AJ Pollock 0.0941 0.1328 20.1
8 Hanley Ramirez 0.1294 0.1845 19.5
9 Buster Posey 0.1362 0.1025 18.3
10 Josh Willingham 0.1303 0.0892 18.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adeiny Hechavarría 0.0994 0.0519 25.7
2 Daniel Nava 0.1005 0.1437 24.7
3 Daniel Murphy 0.1045 0.1320 21.2
4 Paul Goldschmidt 0.1194 0.1451 20.3
5 Darwin Barney 0.1269 0.0883 19.8
6 Jose Altuve 0.1265 0.0952 19.0
7 Yadier Molina 0.0936 0.1257 19.0
8 Pablo Sandoval 0.1243 0.0890 18.9
9 Dustin Ackley 0.1406 0.0937 18.8
10 Anthony Rizzo 0.1324 0.1029 18.3

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Starlin Castro 0.0624
0.1098
(30.0)
0.1002
(23.8)
0.1064
(27.4)
0.1132
(32.6)
Brandon Phillips 0.1547
0.1134
(30.7)
0.1115
(31.4)
0.1058
(35.9)
0.1209
(25.5)
Jayson Werth 0.1541
0.1097
(26.2)
0.1023
(29.7)
0.1135
(24.3)
0.1058
(28.2)
B.J. Upton 0.0583
0.1218
(26.2)
0.1172
(24.5)
0.1203
(25.4)
0.1233
(26.9)
Marlon Byrd 0.1520
0.0982
(33.9)
0.0881
(39.3)
0.1024
(31.7)
0.0941
(36.2)
Miguel Cabrera 0.2101
0.1720
(28.0)
0.1724
(27.2)
0.1749
(26.3)
0.1692
(29.7)
Chris Davis 0.2051
0.1411
(46.3)
0.1220
(58.5)
0.1465
(42.9)
0.1357
(49.8)
Joey Votto 0.1006
0.1449
(28.7)
0.1378
(24.2)
0.1396
(24.7)
0.1503
(32.7)
Wilson Ramos 0.1947
0.1129
(26.2)
0.1111
(26.5)
0.1165
(25.2)
0.1093
(27.3)
Paul Goldschmidt 0.1761
0.1451
(25.4)
0.1327
(33.6)
0.1475
(23.9)
0.1426
(27.0)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.1623 0.1159 28.7
2 Jimmy Rollins 0.1003 0.0586 24.6
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1737 0.1230 23.1
4 Starling Marte 0.1068 0.0618 22.7
5 Brandon Moss 0.1327 0.1723 22.4
6 Shin-Soo Choo 0.1118 0.0758 22.2
7 Michael Brantley 0.0886 0.1195 21.8
8 Domonic Brown 0.1195 0.1537 21.1
9 Mike Moustakas 0.1272 0.0817 20.9
10 Alexei Ramirez 0.1066 0.0712 20.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Hamilton 0.1746 0.1242 29.6
2 Adam Jones 0.1189 0.1567 28.8
3 Freddie Freeman 0.1320 0.1733 28.5
4 Jimmy Rollins 0.0997 0.0586 24.8
5 Evan Gattis 0.1106 0.1702 24.2
6 Josh Willingham 0.1568 0.1019 24.0
7 Carl Crawford 0.1210 0.0661 23.9
8 Miguel Montero 0.1426 0.0884 23.9
9 Domonic Brown 0.1141 0.1537 23.5
10 Marco Scutaro 0.1035 0.0567 23.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1751 0.1230 23.7
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.1549 0.1159 23.3
3 Michael Brantley 0.0882 0.1195 22.2
4 Brandon Moss 0.1338 0.1723 22.0
5 Mike Moustakas 0.1295 0.0817 21.9
6 Freddie Freeman 0.1435 0.1733 21.9
7 Domonic Brown 0.1182 0.1537 21.9
8 Justin Upton 0.1476 0.1089 21.6
9 Pedro Álvarez 0.1351 0.1629 20.2
10 Eric Young Jr. 0.0922 0.0535 20.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.1698 0.1159 34.0
2 Shin-Soo Choo 0.1279 0.0758 33.8
3 Jimmy Rollins 0.1092 0.0586 30.7
4 Starling Marte 0.1176 0.0618 29.0
5 Chase Headley 0.1294 0.0833 24.9
6 Adam Jones 0.1258 0.1567 24.5
7 Miguel Montero 0.1443 0.0884 24.3
8 Adam LaRoche 0.1506 0.1051 24.1
9 Alexei Ramirez 0.1101 0.0712 23.1
10 Brandon Moss 0.1316 0.1723 22.9

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jed Lowrie 0.2902
0.2457
(28.4)
0.2526
(25.5)
0.2456
(29.3)
0.2457
(27.5)
Starlin Castro 0.2447
0.2926
(34.9)
0.2896
(30.9)
0.2917
(33.3)
0.2936
(36.5)
David Murphy 0.2202
0.2787
(28.6)
0.2848
(30.3)
0.2823
(29.7)
0.2751
(27.5)
Darwin Barney 0.2076
0.2694
(35.2)
0.2617
(29.5)
0.2689
(34.2)
0.2698
(36.2)
Jayson Werth 0.3182
0.2568
(31.8)
0.2681
(27.1)
0.2601
(30.7)
0.2535
(32.9)
B.J. Upton 0.1841
0.2481
(29.3)
0.2442
(26.4)
0.2453
(27.4)
0.2509
(31.1)
Dan Uggla 0.1786
0.2376
(32.6)
0.2445
(34.9)
0.2369
(31.5)
0.2382
(33.6)
Chris Johnson 0.3210
0.2580
(33.6)
0.2725
(27.0)
0.2620
(32.1)
0.2540
(35.1)
Josh Donaldson 0.3005
0.2418
(38.1)
0.2437
(38.5)
0.2501
(33.4)
0.2336
(42.7)
Hanley Ramirez 0.3454
0.2680
(25.4)
0.2633
(27.9)
0.2693
(25.5)
0.2668
(25.4)
Matt Carpenter 0.3179
0.2634
(37.9)
0.2736
(32.4)
0.2697
(34.3)
0.2570
(41.5)
Daniel Nava 0.3035
0.2472
(29.3)
0.2460
(31.3)
0.2540
(26.4)
0.2404
(32.2)
Freddie Freeman 0.3194
0.2738
(27.7)
0.2653
(34.6)
0.2734
(28.8)
0.2742
(26.6)
Michael Cuddyer 0.3313
0.2798
(26.9)
0.2691
(34.1)
0.2757
(29.8)
0.2839
(24.0)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.2772 0.2327 31.9
2 Alcides Escobar 0.2711 0.2339 24.9
3 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2674 0.3023 23.6
4 Yasiel Puig 0.2645 0.3194 23.0
5 Mike Trout 0.2896 0.3226 22.4
6 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2774 0.2401 22.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Hamilton 0.2992 0.2500 30.7
2 Eric Hosmer 0.2582 0.3018 30.3
3 Jose Iglesias 0.2262 0.3029 29.6
4 Justin Ruggiano 0.2814 0.2217 27.8
5 Paul Konerko 0.2958 0.2441 26.4
6 Pete Kozma 0.2727 0.2171 24.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.2756 0.2327 29.9
2 Alcides Escobar 0.2714 0.2339 24.3
3 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2819 0.2401 24.2
4 Yasiel Puig 0.2645 0.3194 23.6
5 Manny Machado 0.2508 0.2834 22.9
6 Marlon Byrd 0.2534 0.2914 21.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.2787 0.2327 33.8
2 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2593 0.3023 28.5
3 Mike Trout 0.2817 0.3226 27.2
4 Alcides Escobar 0.2708 0.2339 25.6
5 Yasiel Puig 0.2645 0.3194 22.4
6 Paul Konerko 0.2840 0.2441 22.3

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Johnny Cueto 242
826
(583.5)
769
(527.0)
829
(587.0)
822
(580.1)
José Fernández 681
214
(467.0)
100
(581.0)
214
(467.0)
100
(581.0)
Wandy Rodriguez 260
769
(509.0)
758
(498.0)
770
(510.0)
768
(507.9)
Clayton Richard 239
764
(524.5)
754
(515.0)
815
(576.0)
712
(473.1)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Roy Halladay 756 282 474.5
2 Brandon Morrow 674 242 432.0
3 Jaime García 649 234 415.0
4 Eric Stults 442 857 414.5
5 Vance Worley 633 234 399.0
6 Liam Hendriks 620 224 396.5
7 Andy Pettitte 433 784 351.1
8 Wade LeBlanc 608 259 349.0
9 Luke Hochevar 608 262 345.5
10 Tommy Hanson 668 327 340.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hyun Jin Ryu 100 783 683.0
2 Shelby Miller 165 722 557.0
3 Julio Teheran 221 774 553.0
4 Wily Peralta 295 802 507.0
5 Andrew Cashner 228 707 479.0
6 Luke Hochevar 735 262 473.0
7 Eric Stults 406 857 451.0
8 John Lackey 330 778 448.0
9 Tom Koehler 155 601 446.0
10 Hisashi Iwakuma 442 866 424.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hyun Jin Ryu 213 783 570.0
2 Jeff Locke 215 711 496.0
3 Eric Stults 365 857 492.0
4 Roy Halladay 768 282 486.0
5 Julio Teheran 298 774 476.0
6 Mike Leake 334 801 467.0
7 Dallas Keuchel 220 682 462.0
8 Brandon Morrow 678 242 436.0
9 Garrett Richards 219 620 401.0
10 Esmil Rogers 201 598 397.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Liam Hendriks 725 224 501.0
2 Roy Halladay 745 282 463.0
3 Jaime García 694 234 460.1
4 Jeremy Bonderman 705 246 459.0
5 Brett Cecil 703 250 452.9
6 Luke Hochevar 698 262 436.1
7 John Lannan 763 332 431.0
8 Vance Worley 663 234 428.9
9 Brandon Morrow 670 242 428.0
10 Drew Smyly 730 303 426.9

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Aníbal Sánchez 0.2708
0.1815
(58.5)
0.2091
(43.0)
0.1852
(57.8)
0.1779
(59.6)
Yovani Gallardo 0.1863
0.2337
(45.0)
0.2302
(37.1)
0.2288
(39.1)
0.2386
(50.5)
A.J. Burnett 0.2609
0.1891
(48.8)
0.2011
(44.7)
0.1943
(46.9)
0.1840
(51.2)
Scott Kazmir 0.2411
0.1425
(59.0)
0.1705
(44.7)
0.1459
(58.5)
0.1390
(59.8)
Luke Hochevar 0.3130
0.1669
(35.4)
0.1741
(35.3)
0.1720
(34.8)
0.1619
(36.2)
Trevor Rosenthal 0.3473
0.2189
(36.6)
0.2089
(41.8)
0.2258
(35.3)
0.2119
(38.1)
Justin Masterson 0.2428
0.1706
(49.3)
0.1779
(48.8)
0.1705
(51.6)
0.1708
(47.4)
Yu Darvish 0.3294
0.2620
(47.5)
0.2444
(68.0)
0.2527
(57.7)
0.2713
(37.9)
Danny Farquhar 0.3465
0.1773
(36.1)
0.1909
(34.5)
0.1771
(36.8)
0.1776
(35.5)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Cashner 0.2346 0.1810 45.5
2 Esmil Rogers 0.2210 0.1605 42.7
3 John Lackey 0.1419 0.2069 42.1
4 Dallas Keuchel 0.1100 0.1804 40.6
5 Julio Teheran 0.1649 0.2196 34.0
6 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1952 0.2497 33.9
7 Jose Quintana 0.1457 0.1971 33.7
8 Jake Westbrook 0.1364 0.0841 33.0
9 Aroldis Chapman 0.2954 0.4341 33.0
10 Rick Porcello 0.1373 0.1929 32.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Fernández 0.1999 0.2746 48.1
2 Dylan Axelrod 0.1891 0.1246 40.2
3 Lucas Harrell 0.1750 0.1259 37.6
4 Greg Holland 0.2555 0.4039 36.8
5 Jake Westbrook 0.1488 0.0841 36.0
6 Andy Pettitte 0.2046 0.1633 35.6
7 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2003 0.2497 35.2
8 Max Scherzer 0.2411 0.2871 35.0
9 Scott Diamond 0.1451 0.0903 33.9
10 Rick Porcello 0.1444 0.1929 32.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Cashner 0.2529 0.1810 56.5
2 Dallas Keuchel 0.1093 0.1804 42.9
3 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1896 0.2497 40.4
4 Esmil Rogers 0.2195 0.1605 40.1
5 John Lackey 0.1500 0.2069 38.0
6 Danny Salazar 0.1309 0.3081 35.7
7 Dylan Axelrod 0.1773 0.1246 35.7
8 Jake Westbrook 0.1384 0.0841 32.6
9 Andy Pettitte 0.1967 0.1633 32.6
10 Rick Porcello 0.1408 0.1929 32.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Lackey 0.1338 0.2069 46.8
2 Esmil Rogers 0.2225 0.1605 44.9
3 José Fernández 0.1999 0.2746 42.0
4 Aroldis Chapman 0.2648 0.4341 40.3
5 Dallas Keuchel 0.1107 0.1804 38.7
6 Julio Teheran 0.1567 0.2196 38.6
7 Jason Hammel 0.2067 0.1571 38.2
8 Jose Quintana 0.1394 0.1971 37.2
9 Bud Norris 0.2245 0.1902 36.6
10 Wily Peralta 0.1904 0.1608 34.2

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Matt Moore 0.6296
0.3956
(162.5)
0.2195
(221.0)
0.4411
(141.3)
0.3548
(183.7)
Francisco Liriano 0.6154
0.3436
(193.7)
0.2162
(221.9)
0.3904
(170.9)
0.3000
(217.6)
Cole Hamels 0.2424
0.4646
(183.8)
0.3421
(149.9)
0.4781
(184.7)
0.4516
(179.1)
Max Scherzer 0.6562
0.4522
(186.5)
0.3421
(207.5)
0.4838
(170.5)
0.4194
(207.5)
Phil Hughes 0.1333
0.3957
(156.2)
0.3333
(170.7)
0.3988
(150.1)
0.3929
(159.3)
Martín Pérez 0.5000
0.2283
(153.8)
0.1154
(168.6)
0.2238
(162.8)
0.2333
(147.1)
Julio Teheran 0.4667
0.2991
(144.5)
0.1429
(199.6)
0.3116
(144.4)
0.2857
(148.8)
Jordan Zimmermann 0.5938
0.4072
(177.9)
0.2500
(240.3)
0.4306
(168.5)
0.3846
(190.7)
Ian Kennedy 0.2258
0.4344
(150.5)
0.3333
(137.7)
0.4313
(138.1)
0.4375
(159.1)
Clay Buchholz 0.7500
0.4061
(151.0)
0.2973
(160.9)
0.3956
(160.6)
0.4167
(143.4)
Bartolo Colon 0.6000
0.3976
(170.3)
0.2286
(234.9)
0.3954
(181.7)
0.4000
(162.5)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Corey Kluber 0.1503 0.4231 177.4
2 Joe Blanton 0.3541 0.0714 161.1
3 Mike Leake 0.2707 0.4516 160.2
4 Jeff Samardzija 0.4308 0.2424 154.8
5 Stephen Strasburg 0.4760 0.2667 139.1
6 Justin Verlander 0.5457 0.3824 133.5
7 Matt Cain 0.4518 0.2667 126.2
8 C.J. Wilson 0.3968 0.5152 125.5
9 Jeremy Guthrie 0.3360 0.4545 124.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Shelby Miller 0.1176 0.4839 216.8
2 Jorge De La Rosa 0.1818 0.5333 203.9
3 Kris Medlen 0.1750 0.4688 186.8
4 Adam Wainwright 0.3056 0.5588 179.1
5 Patrick Corbin 0.1765 0.4375 167.8
6 Jeremy Guthrie 0.2162 0.4545 156.0
7 Jhoulys Chacín 0.2069 0.4516 145.9
8 Chris Tillman 0.2500 0.4848 142.7
9 Corey Kluber 0.1333 0.4231 136.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Corey Kluber 0.1188 0.4231 204.2
2 Joe Blanton 0.4172 0.0714 192.0
3 Mike Leake 0.2668 0.4516 173.3
4 Stephen Strasburg 0.4947 0.2667 143.6
5 Matt Cain 0.4842 0.2667 141.3
6 Justin Verlander 0.5608 0.3824 135.9
7 Jeff Locke 0.1804 0.3333 131.2
8 Jeff Samardzija 0.4171 0.2424 130.8
9 Chris Tillman 0.3626 0.4848 130.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jeff Samardzija 0.4444 0.2424 174.3
2 Gio Gonzalez 0.5625 0.3438 169.9
3 Mike Leake 0.2759 0.4516 149.9
4 Yu Darvish 0.5862 0.4062 141.8
5 Samuel Deduno 0.1538 0.4444 139.2
6 Stephen Strasburg 0.4583 0.2667 131.8
7 Lance Lynn 0.3125 0.4545 131.3
8 Jeremy Guthrie 0.3214 0.4545 130.7
9 A.J. Griffin 0.2903 0.4375 130.5

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ernesto Frieri 0.5522
0.3571
(55.9)
0.1667
(117.5)
0.3556
(56.3)
0.0000
(152.7)
Kevin Gregg 0.5323
0.0000
(142.1)
0.2105
(91.0)
0.0000
(142.2)
0.0301
(127.2)
Edward Mujica 0.5692
0.0000
(144.2)
0.0204
(144.2)
0.0000
(144.2)
0.0000
(137.7)
Aroldis Chapman 0.5588
0.2594
(76.3)
0.2800
(76.2)
0.2266
(84.7)
0.0000
(136.6)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Axford 0.5769 0.0000 167.8
2 Jim Henderson 0.0000 0.4590 112.4
3 Carlos Marmol 0.4959 0.0385 103.8
4 Wilton Lopez 0.2664 0.0000 86.7
5 Joaquín Benoit 0.0331 0.3636 86.6
6 Danny Farquhar 0.0000 0.3478 78.4
7 Koji Uehara 0.0000 0.2877 75.2
8 Huston Street 0.8431 0.5690 61.7
9 Jarred Cosart 0.2427 0.0000 60.6
10 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.6407 0.4068 59.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Greg Holland 0.1556 0.6912 140.8
2 Sergio Romo 0.1000 0.5846 125.3
3 Grant Balfour 0.1538 0.5846 117.2
4 Glen Perkins 0.1200 0.5902 116.8
5 Jason Grilli 0.0500 0.6111 116.7
6 John Axford 0.4151 0.0000 115.1
7 Steve Cishek 0.1333 0.4928 105.7
8 Casey Janssen 0.1556 0.6071 98.3
9 Jim Henderson 0.0800 0.4590 97.7
10 Jim Johnson 0.3673 0.6757 94.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Axford 0.5795 0.0000 168.6
2 Jim Henderson 0.0000 0.4590 112.4
3 Carlos Marmol 0.4933 0.0385 103.2
4 Wilton Lopez 0.2917 0.0000 94.8
5 Joaquín Benoit 0.0343 0.3636 86.3
6 Danny Farquhar 0.0000 0.3478 78.4
7 Koji Uehara 0.0000 0.2877 75.2
8 Huston Street 0.8750 0.5690 68.8
9 Chris Perez 0.7160 0.4630 62.4
10 Mariano Rivera 0.9211 0.6875 60.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jim Johnson 0.0000 0.6757 188.1
2 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.7353 182.2
3 Greg Holland 0.0000 0.6912 168.8
4 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.6875 168.5
5 Rafael Soriano 0.0000 0.6324 167.0
6 Addison Reed 0.0000 0.5882 164.9
7 Joe Nathan 0.0000 0.6418 153.1
8 Fernando Rodney 0.0000 0.5441 149.3
9 Grant Balfour 0.0000 0.5846 145.5
10 Sergio Romo 0.0000 0.5846 138.8

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ryan Vogelsong 5.7299
3.9001
(1009.0)
3.3155
(1185.6)
4.1159
(862.3)
3.6836
(1151.4)
Josh Johnson 6.1967
3.9339
(995.9)
3.3952
(1123.5)
4.1827
(862.7)
3.6846
(1125.7)
Lucas Harrell 5.8568
4.7095
(1045.0)
3.9130
(1462.1)
4.6653
(1006.8)
4.7554
(1075.1)
Joe Blanton 6.0377
4.1993
(1325.3)
4.5782
(967.7)
3.9161
(1438.4)
4.4896
(1202.0)
Edinson Volquez 5.7065
4.1055
(1500.9)
4.3970
(1114.0)
4.1272
(1407.7)
4.0830
(1587.2)
CC Sabathia 4.7773
3.6073
(1362.6)
3.3223
(1433.9)
3.6110
(1270.1)
3.6036
(1446.4)
Roy Halladay 6.8226
3.4455
(1045.6)
3.3586
(1011.9)
3.4719
(1010.5)
3.4190
(1078.0)
Ian Kennedy 4.9136
3.7952
(1150.6)
3.6695
(1086.5)
3.8789
(1006.2)
3.7109
(1287.8)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Jackson 3.9375 4.9791 1066.3
2 Jeremy Hellickson 4.0791 5.1724 1049.5
3 Barry Zito 4.4979 5.7375 954.7
4 Ervin Santana 4.7215 3.2844 950.4
5 Dan Haren 3.6861 4.6680 941.1
6 Aníbal Sánchez 4.1377 2.5714 921.7
7 Clay Buchholz 4.2812 1.7446 917.7
8 Tyler Chatwood 5.3407 3.1527 884.1
9 Hisashi Iwakuma 3.9994 2.6631 870.8
10 Philip Humber 4.8879 7.9024 866.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jeremy Hellickson 3.2466 5.1724 1510.9
2 Joe Saunders 3.9880 5.2623 1146.8
3 R.A. Dickey 3.1148 4.2062 1146.4
4 John Lackey 5.0670 3.5176 1108.8
5 Brandon Maurer 3.7669 6.3000 1068.3
6 Aaron Harang 3.8532 5.4000 1046.1
7 Francisco Liriano 4.7079 3.0186 1042.3
8 José Fernández 3.7669 2.1892 989.8
9 Wade Davis 3.8445 5.3202 988.8
10 Scott Diamond 3.8436 5.4275 983.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hisashi Iwakuma 4.1396 2.6631 1077.3
2 Dan Haren 3.4721 4.6680 1024.2
3 Clay Buchholz 4.3976 1.7446 1006.9
4 Clayton Kershaw 3.1608 1.8305 996.8
5 Matt Harvey 3.9077 2.2710 968.9
6 Edwin Jackson 3.9698 4.9791 964.9
7 Dylan Axelrod 4.2777 5.6805 958.3
8 Philip Humber 4.5212 7.9024 936.0
9 José Fernández 3.7888 2.1892 931.0
10 Aníbal Sánchez 4.0455 2.5714 926.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jeremy Hellickson 3.7792 5.1724 1335.8
2 Edwin Jackson 3.9047 4.9791 1160.6
3 Ervin Santana 5.0477 3.2844 1154.5
4 Barry Zito 4.3110 5.7375 1122.2
5 Joe Saunders 4.3169 5.2623 1119.0
6 Matt Cain 2.9900 4.0036 1089.0
7 Jeff Samardzija 3.6213 4.3385 1038.7
8 Jason Hammel 3.7218 4.9737 1021.1
9 Scott Kazmir 5.9785 4.0443 1018.0
10 John Lackey 5.2441 3.5176 1017.0

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Barry Zito 1.7025
1.4083
(212.9)
1.3687
(212.8)
1.4386
(185.3)
1.3780
(239.5)
Joe Saunders 1.6011
1.3779
(228.9)
1.3413
(226.2)
1.3956
(202.0)
1.3600
(254.6)
Wade Davis 1.6773
1.3909
(211.6)
1.3034
(241.1)
1.4052
(193.5)
1.3764
(228.9)
Matt Harvey 0.9308
1.3282
(235.6)
1.2446
(205.4)
1.3216
(241.4)
1.3350
(231.0)
Josh Johnson 1.6598
1.2926
(162.5)
1.2307
(171.0)
1.3233
(144.9)
1.2617
(179.5)
Justin Verlander 1.3145
1.1294
(223.0)
1.0751
(236.4)
1.1564
(184.1)
1.1026
(260.2)
Lucas Harrell 1.7050
1.4959
(187.4)
1.3822
(239.6)
1.4727
(193.1)
1.5199
(179.9)
Joe Blanton 1.6131
1.2435
(260.0)
1.3136
(192.8)
1.2213
(264.4)
1.2663
(254.3)
CC Sabathia 1.3697
1.2069
(198.6)
1.2011
(167.7)
1.2028
(188.6)
1.2111
(207.0)
Ian Kennedy 1.3952
1.2376
(169.6)
1.2285
(145.2)
1.2432
(153.2)
1.2320
(184.7)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hisashi Iwakuma 1.2820 1.0061 190.5
2 John Lackey 1.4448 1.1567 180.6
3 José Fernández 1.2969 0.9788 178.5
4 Chris Archer 1.5222 1.1269 178.1
5 Edwin Jackson 1.2940 1.4601 172.6
6 Dylan Axelrod 1.4272 1.6597 169.1
7 Edinson Volquez 1.4253 1.5851 167.7
8 Max Scherzer 1.2259 0.9705 166.7
9 Ervin Santana 1.3891 1.1422 164.0
10 Scott Kazmir 1.6102 1.3228 155.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Max Scherzer 1.3041 0.9705 265.4
2 Hisashi Iwakuma 1.2903 1.0061 232.2
3 John Lackey 1.4611 1.1567 224.3
4 José Fernández 1.2778 0.9788 192.7
5 Yu Darvish 1.2952 1.0731 173.2
6 Tyson Ross 1.5053 1.1520 169.9
7 Dylan Axelrod 1.3947 1.6597 164.8
8 Ryan Vogelsong 1.2537 1.5627 151.8
9 Vance Worley 1.3741 1.9932 148.6
10 Tyler Cloyd 1.2837 1.7901 147.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hisashi Iwakuma 1.3166 1.0061 233.5
2 Dylan Axelrod 1.3443 1.6597 208.8
3 José Fernández 1.2969 0.9788 188.8
4 Edinson Volquez 1.3874 1.5851 185.4
5 Clayton Kershaw 1.1451 0.9153 171.5
6 Chris Archer 1.4863 1.1269 167.2
7 Edwin Jackson 1.2865 1.4601 166.7
8 Ervin Santana 1.3709 1.1422 161.4
9 Vance Worley 1.3692 1.9932 155.6
10 Tyler Cloyd 1.2894 1.7901 152.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Lackey 1.5118 1.1567 222.3
2 Scott Kazmir 1.6876 1.3228 198.5
3 Max Scherzer 1.2748 0.9705 196.4
4 Alex Torres 1.8257 0.8966 194.3
5 Chris Archer 1.5595 1.1269 190.7
6 Edwin Jackson 1.3016 1.4601 177.1
7 Jeff Samardzija 1.2249 1.3479 175.9
8 Corey Kluber 1.6160 1.2624 172.8
9 Ervin Santana 1.4077 1.1422 168.5
10 Neal Cotts 1.7668 0.9474 167.3