2010 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2010, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Juan Pierre 734
468
(266.0)
448
(286.0)
468
(266.0)
Rickie Weeks Jr. 754
389
(365.0)
339
(415.0)
389
(365.0)
Brennan Boesch 512
100
(412.0)
100
(412.0)
100
(412.0)
Dustin Pedroia 351
659
(308.0)
637
(286.0)
659
(308.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ángel Pagán 322 633 311.0
2 Justin Morneau 648 348 300.0
3 Michael Brantley 604 325 279.0
4 Jimmy Rollins 667 394 273.0
5 Wilson Valdez 100 363 263.0
6 Ryan Sweeney 591 331 260.0
7 Álex González 401 640 239.0
8 Danny Valencia 550 322 228.0
9 Jason Bay 622 401 221.0
10 Luis Valbuena 530 310 220.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 100 675 575.0
2 Jason Heyward 100 623 523.0
3 Ike Davis 100 601 501.0
4 Gaby Sanchez 215 643 428.0
5 Starlin Castro 100 506 406.0
6 Jose Tabata 100 441 341.0
7 Daric Barton 357 686 329.0
8 Ian Desmond 250 574 324.0
9 Justin Smoak 100 397 297.0
10 Giancarlo Stanton 100 396 296.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ángel Pagán 322 633 311.0
2 Justin Morneau 648 348 300.0
3 Michael Brantley 604 325 279.0
4 Jimmy Rollins 667 394 273.0
5 Wilson Valdez 100 363 263.0
6 Ryan Sweeney 591 331 260.0
7 Álex González 401 640 239.0
8 Danny Valencia 550 322 228.0
9 Jason Bay 622 401 221.0
10 Luis Valbuena 530 310 220.0

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Corey Hart 0.0733
0.0455
(17.9)
0.0427
(19.6)
0.0455
(17.9)
Tyler Colvin 0.0763
0.0303
(18.7)
0.0323
(17.9)
0.0303
(18.7)
Vernon Wells 0.0609
0.0392
(14.9)
0.0346
(17.8)
0.0392
(14.9)
Jonny Gomes 0.0453
0.0791
(18.5)
0.0711
(14.0)
0.0791
(18.5)
Carlos González 0.0741
0.0442
(19.9)
0.0393
(23.0)
0.0442
(19.9)
Joey Votto 0.0871
0.0588
(19.2)
0.0582
(19.6)
0.0588
(19.2)
Colby Rasmus 0.0714
0.0391
(18.0)
0.0401
(17.4)
0.0391
(18.0)
José Bautista 0.1182
0.0459
(50.3)
0.0425
(52.6)
0.0459
(50.3)
Paul Konerko 0.0878
0.0562
(20.8)
0.0599
(18.5)
0.0562
(20.8)
Ben Zobrist 0.0221
0.0475
(15.8)
0.0577
(22.5)
0.0475
(15.8)
Jim Thome 0.1276
0.0760
(18.0)
0.0870
(14.3)
0.0760
(18.0)
Jason Bay 0.0230
0.0911
(26.8)
0.0693
(18.0)
0.0911
(26.8)
Ryan Howard 0.0783
0.1183
(23.9)
0.1040
(15.1)
0.1183
(23.9)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Stubbs 0.0256 0.0620 22.0
2 Raul Ibanez 0.0670 0.0348 19.6
3 Evan Longoria 0.0789 0.0478 19.6
4 Ryan Braun 0.0752 0.0483 17.5
5 Michael Cuddyer 0.0511 0.0269 15.4
6 Ryan Ludwick 0.0734 0.0452 14.9
7 Nick Markakis 0.0426 0.0222 13.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0395 0.0928 21.6
2 Austin Jackson 0.0395 0.0088 19.8
3 Kelly Johnson 0.0319 0.0588 18.9
4 Starlin Castro 0.0395 0.0075 15.5
5 Mark Reynolds 0.0865 0.1092 14.4
6 David Wright 0.0471 0.0662 13.7
7 Elvis Andrus 0.0215 0.0000 13.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Stubbs 0.0256 0.0620 22.0
2 Raul Ibanez 0.0670 0.0348 19.6
3 Evan Longoria 0.0789 0.0478 19.6
4 Ryan Braun 0.0752 0.0483 17.5
5 Michael Cuddyer 0.0511 0.0269 15.4
6 Ryan Ludwick 0.0734 0.0452 14.9
7 Nick Markakis 0.0426 0.0222 13.5

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Alex Rodriguez 0.0282
0.0943
(42.6)
0.0933
(38.2)
0.0943
(42.6)
Brandon Phillips 0.0941
0.1678
(54.3)
0.1583
(43.4)
0.1678
(54.3)
Will Venable 0.2566
0.0652
(82.8)
0.0645
(85.9)
0.0652
(82.8)
B.J. Upton 0.3088
0.2096
(57.3)
0.2025
(65.5)
0.2096
(57.3)
Franklin Gutierrez 0.1667
0.0625
(62.2)
0.0935
(46.6)
0.0625
(62.2)
Cliff Pennington 0.2071
0.1078
(54.1)
0.0909
(67.5)
0.1078
(54.1)
Rafael Furcal 0.1864
0.0769
(44.6)
0.0927
(40.5)
0.0769
(44.6)
Ángel Pagán 0.2256
0.1500
(44.5)
0.1250
(64.3)
0.1500
(44.5)
Coco Crisp 0.3765
0.1935
(58.2)
0.1685
(68.5)
0.1935
(58.2)
Andres Torres 0.2047
0.1011
(56.0)
0.1045
(57.7)
0.1011
(56.0)
Alex Rios 0.2222
0.1477
(42.7)
0.1460
(47.7)
0.1477
(42.7)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 0.0667 0.1687 64.2
2 José Reyes 0.3028 0.2113 58.4
3 Julio Borbon 0.2398 0.1210 58.1
4 Jayson Nix 0.1429 0.0139 48.8
5 Rajai Davis 0.2617 0.3497 46.3
6 Alcides Escobar 0.1534 0.0769 45.2
7 Elvis Andrus 0.2138 0.1546 43.5
8 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1250 0.1883 42.4
9 Hunter Pence 0.0526 0.1146 37.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.1250 0.0521 54.2
2 Austin Jackson 0.0679 0.1467 53.9
3 Corey Hart 0.1327 0.0500 50.2
4 Adrian Beltré 0.0877 0.0129 47.3
5 Drew Stubbs 0.1316 0.2083 45.3
6 Torii Hunter 0.1190 0.0529 42.1
7 Erick Aybar 0.0809 0.1467 39.3
8 Jose Tabata 0.0679 0.1557 39.2
9 Sean Rodríguez 0.0536 0.1529 37.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 0.0667 0.1687 64.2
2 José Reyes 0.3028 0.2113 58.4
3 Julio Borbon 0.2398 0.1210 58.1
4 Jayson Nix 0.1429 0.0139 48.8
5 Rajai Davis 0.2617 0.3497 46.3
6 Alcides Escobar 0.1534 0.0769 45.2
7 Elvis Andrus 0.2138 0.1546 43.5
8 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1250 0.1883 42.4
9 Hunter Pence 0.0526 0.1146 37.3

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Josh Hamilton 0.1664
0.1323
(23.9)
0.1325
(22.9)
0.1323
(23.9)
Carl Crawford 0.1659
0.1398
(22.5)
0.1404
(21.0)
0.1398
(22.5)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1713
0.1332
(29.7)
0.1311
(30.1)
0.1332
(29.7)
Carlos González 0.1745
0.1341
(30.7)
0.1328
(30.4)
0.1341
(30.7)
Joey Votto 0.1636
0.1324
(25.2)
0.1322
(24.3)
0.1324
(25.2)
Chone Figgins 0.0883
0.1483
(36.7)
0.1473
(37.1)
0.1483
(36.7)
Aubrey Huff 0.1497
0.1201
(25.0)
0.1187
(24.8)
0.1201
(25.0)
Austin Jackson 0.1526
0.0978
(42.2)
0.1214
(25.2)
0.0978
(42.2)
Paul Konerko 0.1410
0.1135
(22.3)
0.1175
(18.7)
0.1135
(22.3)
Drew Stubbs 0.1561
0.1207
(25.2)
0.1287
(19.5)
0.1207
(25.2)
Lance Berkman 0.0998
0.1517
(21.2)
0.1444
(18.5)
0.1517
(21.2)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nyjer Morgan 0.1692 0.1040 33.1
2 Ike Davis 0.0880 0.1215 24.8
3 Adam Jones 0.1640 0.1224 21.0
4 Robinson Canó 0.1262 0.1480 20.6
5 Michael Saunders 0.1586 0.0887 20.3
6 Alex Rios 0.1198 0.1442 19.9
7 Tyler Colvin 0.1101 0.1519 19.6
8 Luis Valbuena 0.1415 0.0710 19.5
9 Kevin Youkilis 0.1412 0.1770 19.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Bautista 0.1219 0.1596 29.9
2 Martín Prado 0.1263 0.1536 21.8
3 Adam Lind 0.1336 0.0930 21.1
4 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1352 0.1011 20.5
5 Alex Rodriguez 0.1644 0.1244 20.2
6 Howie Kendrick 0.1383 0.1018 20.0
7 Hunter Pence 0.1193 0.1413 18.5
8 Brett Gardner 0.1444 0.1705 18.3
9 Orlando Hudson 0.1173 0.1431 17.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nyjer Morgan 0.1692 0.1040 33.1
2 Ike Davis 0.0880 0.1215 24.8
3 Adam Jones 0.1640 0.1224 21.0
4 Robinson Canó 0.1262 0.1480 20.6
5 Michael Saunders 0.1586 0.0887 20.3
6 Alex Rios 0.1198 0.1442 19.9
7 Tyler Colvin 0.1101 0.1519 19.6
8 Luis Valbuena 0.1415 0.0710 19.5
9 Kevin Youkilis 0.1412 0.1770 19.0

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Brandon Phillips 0.0859
0.1452
(33.8)
0.1372
(32.2)
0.1452
(33.8)
Delmon Young 0.1827
0.1356
(35.1)
0.1266
(37.2)
0.1356
(35.1)
Troy Tulowitzki 0.1796
0.1331
(30.0)
0.1343
(26.3)
0.1331
(30.0)
Carlos González 0.1840
0.1210
(46.5)
0.0952
(59.3)
0.1210
(46.5)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1944
0.1611
(28.2)
0.1618
(24.0)
0.1611
(28.2)
Prince Fielder 0.1162
0.2067
(57.3)
0.1672
(33.2)
0.2067
(57.3)
Erick Aybar 0.0492
0.1074
(28.2)
0.1048
(30.1)
0.1074
(28.2)
José Bautista 0.1816
0.1263
(44.7)
0.1106
(51.5)
0.1263
(44.7)
Bengie Molina 0.0865
0.1770
(33.4)
0.1522
(25.4)
0.1770
(33.4)
Paul Konerko 0.1759
0.1294
(35.8)
0.1320
(30.5)
0.1294
(35.8)
Nick Markakis 0.0846
0.1474
(37.3)
0.1374
(34.3)
0.1474
(37.3)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Stubbs 0.0777 0.1321 37.7
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.1705 0.1023 35.8
3 Álex González 0.0973 0.1375 32.3
4 Alex Rodriguez 0.1667 0.2101 31.9
5 Ian Desmond 0.0702 0.1132 30.5
6 Ryan Ludwick 0.1873 0.1248 28.9
7 Orlando Hudson 0.1272 0.0662 28.4
8 Scott Rolen 0.1121 0.1546 28.3
9 Yuniesky Betancourt 0.0955 0.1327 27.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 0.1167 0.0607 34.7
2 Corey Hart 0.1248 0.1661 28.1
3 Adrian Beltré 0.1207 0.1591 27.5
4 Yunel Escobar 0.1099 0.0617 24.8
5 Robinson Canó 0.1258 0.1566 24.5
6 Chris Young 0.1063 0.1370 23.4
7 Vladimir Guerrero 0.1473 0.1788 23.2
8 Neil Walker 0.0978 0.1407 22.2
9 Buster Posey 0.1065 0.1512 21.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Stubbs 0.0777 0.1321 37.7
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.1705 0.1023 35.8
3 Álex González 0.0973 0.1375 32.3
4 Alex Rodriguez 0.1667 0.2101 31.9
5 Ian Desmond 0.0702 0.1132 30.5
6 Ryan Ludwick 0.1873 0.1248 28.9
7 Orlando Hudson 0.1272 0.0662 28.4
8 Scott Rolen 0.1121 0.1546 28.3
9 Yuniesky Betancourt 0.0955 0.1327 27.8

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Josh Hamilton 0.3591
0.2833
(44.4)
0.2857
(44.5)
0.2833
(44.4)
Pablo Sandoval 0.2682
0.3199
(30.7)
0.3165
(26.9)
0.3199
(30.7)
Dan Uggla 0.2869
0.2458
(29.0)
0.2505
(27.7)
0.2458
(29.0)
Aaron Hill 0.2045
0.2746
(39.6)
0.2807
(41.5)
0.2746
(39.6)
Carlos González 0.3356
0.2705
(42.6)
0.2659
(47.3)
0.2705
(42.6)
Casey Kotchman 0.2174
0.2709
(23.6)
0.2757
(24.5)
0.2709
(23.6)
Aramis Ramirez 0.2409
0.2952
(26.6)
0.2966
(25.9)
0.2952
(26.6)
Matt Kemp 0.2492
0.3002
(32.8)
0.2962
(28.3)
0.3002
(32.8)
Carlos Lee 0.2463
0.2976
(32.1)
0.2992
(31.4)
0.2976
(32.1)
Nick Swisher 0.2880
0.2427
(30.0)
0.2452
(30.1)
0.2427
(30.0)
Paul Konerko 0.3120
0.2685
(28.6)
0.2614
(34.9)
0.2685
(28.6)
Carlos Pena 0.1963
0.2432
(26.2)
0.2511
(29.2)
0.2432
(26.2)
Adrian Beltré 0.3209
0.2762
(29.9)
0.2670
(37.5)
0.2762
(29.9)
Mark Reynolds 0.1984
0.2585
(34.7)
0.2562
(31.7)
0.2585
(34.7)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 0.2468 0.2929 32.4
2 John Buck 0.2208 0.2812 27.2
3 Chris Johnson 0.2433 0.3079 24.1
4 Garrett Jones 0.2852 0.2466 24.0
5 José Bautista 0.2271 0.2601 23.9
6 Brendan Ryan 0.2739 0.2232 23.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Jeter 0.3143 0.2700 29.4
2 Nelson Cruz 0.2637 0.3183 26.4
3 Carlos Ruiz 0.2480 0.3019 25.4
4 Adam Lind 0.2829 0.2373 25.2
5 Buster Posey 0.2539 0.3054 24.9
6 Mark Teixeira 0.2951 0.2562 24.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 0.2468 0.2929 32.4
2 John Buck 0.2208 0.2812 27.2
3 Chris Johnson 0.2433 0.3079 24.1
4 Garrett Jones 0.2852 0.2466 24.0
5 José Bautista 0.2271 0.2601 23.9
6 Brendan Ryan 0.2739 0.2232 23.7

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Brett Myers 936
514
(422.0)
425
(511.0)
514
(422.0)
Ian Snell 227
862
(635.0)
663
(436.0)
862
(635.0)
Mike Leake 604
100
(504.0)
100
(504.0)
100
(504.0)
Brad Penny 232
670
(438.0)
666
(434.0)
670
(438.0)
Jake Westbrook 860
231
(629.0)
267
(593.0)
231
(629.0)
Jason Marquis 276
814
(538.0)
791
(515.0)
814
(538.0)
Tim Hudson 920
484
(436.0)
388
(532.0)
484
(436.0)
C.J. Wilson 850
289
(561.0)
290
(560.0)
289
(561.0)
Ian Kennedy 810
363
(447.0)
261
(549.0)
363
(447.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Carpenter 394 969 575.0
2 Gil Meche 798 281 517.0
3 Chris Tillman 728 236 492.0
4 Aníbal Sánchez 357 841 484.0
5 Andy Sonnanstine 817 355 462.0
6 Aaron Laffey 708 253 455.0
7 Hector Ambriz 673 224 449.0
8 Jose Contreras 673 233 440.0
9 Jason Berken 686 262 424.0
10 Freddy Garcia 249 671 422.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Colby Lewis 114 844 730.0
2 Rodrigo Lopez 295 874 579.0
3 Jaime García 134 695 561.0
4 Mitch Talbot 168 696 528.0
5 Shaun Marcum 295 800 505.0
6 Chris Narveson 239 724 485.0
7 Jeremy Bonderman 277 754 477.0
8 Jonathon Niese 334 770 436.0
9 Jhoulys Chacín 155 583 428.0
10 Hisanori Takahashi 100 516 416.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Carpenter 394 969 575.0
2 Gil Meche 798 281 517.0
3 Chris Tillman 728 236 492.0
4 Aníbal Sánchez 357 841 484.0
5 Andy Sonnanstine 817 355 462.0
6 Aaron Laffey 708 253 455.0
7 Hector Ambriz 673 224 449.0
8 Jose Contreras 673 233 440.0
9 Jason Berken 686 262 424.0
10 Freddy Garcia 249 671 422.0

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Roy Oswalt 0.2306
0.1786
(34.2)
0.1826
(37.0)
0.1786
(34.2)
Jon Lester 0.2613
0.2023
(41.3)
0.2157
(36.1)
0.2023
(41.3)
A.J. Burnett 0.1749
0.2072
(36.0)
0.2205
(41.0)
0.2072
(36.0)
Javier Vazquez 0.1772
0.2264
(41.2)
0.2371
(43.5)
0.2264
(41.2)
Carlos Marmol 0.4157
0.2978
(35.5)
0.2557
(51.8)
0.2978
(35.5)
Scott Kazmir 0.1364
0.2158
(61.8)
0.2141
(55.6)
0.2158
(61.8)
Jered Weaver 0.2575
0.1827
(57.6)
0.1910
(56.7)
0.1827
(57.6)
Randy Wolf 0.1517
0.1828
(39.5)
0.1883
(37.8)
0.1828
(39.5)
Colby Lewis 0.2322
0.1686
(44.3)
0.1754
(44.7)
0.1686
(44.3)
Rich Harden 0.1744
0.2687
(45.3)
0.2586
(37.8)
0.2687
(45.3)
Mat Latos 0.2527
0.1616
(59.9)
0.1799
(51.6)
0.1616
(59.9)
Brandon Morrow 0.2830
0.2126
(37.3)
0.2087
(44.3)
0.2126
(37.3)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Johan Santana 0.2374 0.1763 59.0
2 Zack Greinke 0.2433 0.1970 52.8
3 Jhoulys Chacín 0.1352 0.2367 52.7
4 Jonny Venters 0.1209 0.2657 46.8
5 Tommy Hanson 0.2438 0.2047 42.4
6 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1860 0.2394 37.8
7 Matt Belisle 0.1362 0.2493 37.3
8 Sean Marshall 0.1719 0.2932 33.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Francisco Liriano 0.1935 0.2494 42.0
2 Billy Wagner 0.2288 0.3881 41.7
3 Stephen Strasburg 0.1850 0.3358 40.3
4 Carl Pavano 0.1676 0.1291 38.3
5 Joel Hanrahan 0.2128 0.3401 36.3
6 Adam Wainwright 0.1913 0.2341 35.5
7 Rafael Betancourt 0.2146 0.3589 34.8
8 Mitch Talbot 0.1726 0.1264 34.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Johan Santana 0.2374 0.1763 59.0
2 Zack Greinke 0.2433 0.1970 52.8
3 Jhoulys Chacín 0.1352 0.2367 52.7
4 Jonny Venters 0.1209 0.2657 46.8
5 Tommy Hanson 0.2438 0.2047 42.4
6 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1860 0.2394 37.8
7 Matt Belisle 0.1362 0.2493 37.3
8 Sean Marshall 0.1719 0.2932 33.8

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Kevin Millwood 0.1290
0.3333
(177.7)
0.2632
(176.7)
0.3333
(177.7)
Jon Lester 0.5938
0.3939
(166.2)
0.3250
(166.2)
0.3939
(166.2)
Gio Gonzalez 0.4545
0.2308
(184.7)
0.1765
(172.2)
0.2308
(184.7)
Trevor Cahill 0.6000
0.3000
(229.6)
0.2143
(242.7)
0.3000
(229.6)
Tim Wakefield 0.1250
0.4231
(185.9)
0.3226
(166.7)
0.4231
(185.9)
Brett Cecil 0.5357
0.2414
(208.8)
0.2059
(184.5)
0.2414
(208.8)
David Price 0.5938
0.3103
(238.2)
0.2222
(254.7)
0.3103
(238.2)
Ervin Santana 0.5152
0.3571
(144.3)
0.2647
(166.7)
0.3571
(144.3)
Phil Hughes 0.5806
0.1750
(291.2)
0.1316
(272.5)
0.1750
(291.2)
R.A. Dickey 0.4074
0.1351
(189.3)
0.0968
(167.5)
0.1351
(189.3)
C.J. Wilson 0.4545
0.0758
(316.2)
0.0784
(255.3)
0.0758
(316.2)
Carl Pavano 0.5312
0.3158
(189.1)
0.2750
(163.6)
0.3158
(189.1)
Clay Buchholz 0.6071
0.3548
(174.6)
0.2188
(222.3)
0.3548
(174.6)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Myers 0.1818 0.4242 220.6
2 Brandon Morrow 0.1000 0.3846 174.8
3 Dan Haren 0.5000 0.3429 162.9
4 Zack Greinke 0.4706 0.3030 160.2
5 Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.3333 0.0370 154.5
6 Bruce Chen 0.1111 0.3636 149.4
7 Javier Vazquez 0.5312 0.3226 147.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2927 0.5758 185.4
2 Colby Lewis 0.0833 0.3750 182.3
3 Roy Halladay 0.3784 0.6364 181.0
4 Jaime García 0.1429 0.4643 170.8
5 Adam Wainwright 0.3590 0.6061 155.9
6 Francisco Liriano 0.1842 0.4516 154.5
7 Clayton Richard 0.1707 0.4242 153.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Myers 0.1818 0.4242 220.6
2 Brandon Morrow 0.1000 0.3846 174.8
3 Dan Haren 0.5000 0.3429 162.9
4 Zack Greinke 0.4706 0.3030 160.2
5 Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.3333 0.0370 154.5
6 Bruce Chen 0.1111 0.3636 149.4
7 Javier Vazquez 0.5312 0.3226 147.1

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Billy Wagner 0.5211
0.0000
(132.3)
0.2800
(69.8)
0.0000
(132.3)
Kevin Gregg 0.5873
0.0000
(142.2)
0.3077
(76.0)
0.0000
(142.2)
John Axford 0.4800
0.0000
(107.7)
0.0714
(101.9)
0.0000
(107.7)
Heath Bell 0.7015
0.0000
(193.5)
0.2400
(138.0)
0.0000
(193.5)
Carlos Marmol 0.4935
0.0000
(154.7)
0.1071
(134.7)
0.0000
(154.7)
Juan Carlos Oviedo 0.4412
0.0000
(111.7)
0.1915
(72.7)
0.0000
(111.7)
Neftalí Feliz 0.5714
0.0000
(146.3)
0.0952
(133.3)
0.0000
(146.3)
Matt Capps 0.5676
0.0000
(164.8)
0.3256
(79.7)
0.0000
(164.8)
Matt Lindstrom 0.3966
0.0000
(90.1)
0.1364
(68.2)
0.0000
(90.1)
Brian Wilson 0.6857
0.0000
(204.7)
0.4400
(82.5)
0.0000
(204.7)
David Aardsma 0.5849
0.0000
(112.6)
0.2653
(68.5)
0.0000
(112.6)
Rafael Soriano 0.7031
0.0000
(160.1)
0.2292
(116.9)
0.0000
(160.1)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joakim Soria 0.0000 0.6515 168.5
2 Francisco Cordero 0.0000 0.5333 159.9
3 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.5692 155.5
4 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.5410 118.1
5 Ryan Franklin 0.0000 0.4576 113.6
6 Bobby Jenks 0.0000 0.4909 107.1
7 Jose Valverde 0.0000 0.4333 105.1
8 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0000 0.4717 104.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.2157 0.0000 166.8
2 Octavio Dotel 0.0426 0.3235 83.8
3 Chris Perez 0.0698 0.3651 81.8
4 Brett Myers 0.1000 0.0000 75.4
5 Hisanori Takahashi 0.0281 0.1509 73.4
6 Alfredo Simon 0.0476 0.3469 70.8
7 Brandon Morrow 0.1316 0.0000 70.5
8 Jon Rauch 0.0926 0.3559 69.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joakim Soria 0.0000 0.6515 168.5
2 Francisco Cordero 0.0000 0.5333 159.9
3 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.5692 155.5
4 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.5410 118.1
5 Ryan Franklin 0.0000 0.4576 113.6
6 Bobby Jenks 0.0000 0.4909 107.1
7 Jose Valverde 0.0000 0.4333 105.1
8 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0000 0.4717 104.9

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Gio Gonzalez 3.2292
5.2143
(1363.7)
5.3818
(1675.6)
5.2143
(1363.7)
Chad Qualls 7.3220
3.5634
(1163.7)
3.7370
(1059.0)
3.5634
(1163.7)
Charlie Morton 7.5690
4.1159
(1465.2)
4.7897
(1131.8)
4.1159
(1465.2)
Josh Beckett 5.7807
3.9629
(1269.6)
3.9344
(1171.2)
3.9629
(1269.6)
Zack Greinke 4.1727
3.1062
(1331.7)
3.0628
(1188.7)
3.1062
(1331.7)
Trevor Cahill 2.9746
4.8734
(1187.3)
4.5116
(1059.7)
4.8734
(1187.3)
David Price 2.7173
4.6339
(1320.8)
4.3200
(1221.9)
4.6339
(1320.8)
Brett Myers 3.1386
4.8324
(1227.3)
4.5547
(1153.6)
4.8324
(1227.3)
Javier Vazquez 5.3199
3.5255
(1486.9)
3.7420
(1203.1)
3.5255
(1486.9)
Scott Kazmir 5.9400
4.2579
(1408.1)
4.1557
(1342.1)
4.2579
(1408.1)
James Shields 5.1787
3.9367
(1460.5)
3.9990
(1225.6)
3.9367
(1460.5)
R.A. Dickey 2.8394
5.0400
(1296.3)
4.6721
(1175.9)
5.0400
(1296.3)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 6.7500
4.0527
(1570.7)
3.8393
(1578.1)
4.0527
(1570.7)
Clay Buchholz 2.3321
4.4628
(1243.0)
4.7203
(1567.5)
4.4628
(1243.0)
Livan Hernandez 3.6567
5.6654
(1457.1)
5.2878
(1297.0)
5.6654
(1457.1)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Haren 3.0439 3.9064 1237.5
2 Kevin Correia 3.9320 5.4000 1186.2
3 Brian Duensing 5.1830 2.6173 1168.0
4 Jaime García 4.7488 2.7000 1158.0
5 Jonny Venters 5.4187 1.9518 1079.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 A.J. Burnett 4.0820 5.2554 1124.9
2 Jonathan Sánchez 4.5803 3.0724 1075.4
3 Zach Duke 4.4278 5.7170 1075.1
4 Kyle Lohse 4.3485 6.5543 1029.8
5 Mat Latos 4.4796 2.9242 1026.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Haren 3.0439 3.9064 1237.5
2 Kevin Correia 3.9320 5.4000 1186.2
3 Brian Duensing 5.1830 2.6173 1168.0
4 Jaime García 4.7487 2.7000 1158.0
5 Jonny Venters 5.4187 1.9518 1079.5

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Livan Hernandez 1.3228
1.6049
(201.6)
1.5588
(180.6)
1.6049
(201.6)
Gio Gonzalez 1.3106
1.5714
(173.3)
1.5731
(194.2)
1.5714
(173.3)
Trevor Cahill 1.1085
1.4813
(247.2)
1.4203
(217.3)
1.4813
(247.2)
Josh Beckett 1.5352
1.1903
(232.0)
1.2186
(202.5)
1.1903
(232.0)
Javier Vazquez 1.3983
1.1561
(204.5)
1.1834
(170.3)
1.1561
(204.5)
Scott Feldman 1.5991
1.3533
(194.2)
1.3684
(169.9)
1.3533
(194.2)
James Shields 1.4607
1.2106
(276.1)
1.2650
(206.7)
1.2106
(276.1)
R.A. Dickey 1.1874
1.5440
(213.5)
1.5027
(200.4)
1.5440
(213.5)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 1.6921
1.3083
(224.8)
1.3194
(207.6)
1.3083
(224.8)
Rich Harden 1.6630
1.2540
(200.5)
1.2664
(185.3)
1.2540
(200.5)
Dan Haren 1.2723
1.0805
(247.4)
1.1344
(171.3)
1.0805
(247.4)
Zach Duke 1.6541
1.4021
(225.6)
1.4118
(202.0)
1.4021
(225.6)
Ian Kennedy 1.2010
1.4815
(180.9)
1.4966
(211.6)
1.4815
(180.9)
Kyle Lohse 1.7826
1.3987
(190.1)
1.3470
(202.6)
1.3987
(190.1)
Paul Maholm 1.5647
1.3539
(225.1)
1.3855
(179.4)
1.3539
(225.1)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ricky Romero 1.5864 1.2905 210.7
2 Scott Kazmir 1.3581 1.5800 190.3
3 Aaron Harang 1.2719 1.5851 186.6
4 Chad Qualls 1.2183 1.7966 178.6
5 Tim Lincecum 1.1333 1.2716 175.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Félix Hernández 1.2756 1.0574 184.0
2 Cliff Lee 1.2526 1.0031 181.3
3 Mat Latos 1.3575 1.0830 179.6
4 Roy Oswalt 1.2640 1.0252 171.2
5 Jered Weaver 1.2968 1.0743 170.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ricky Romero 1.5864 1.2905 210.7
2 Scott Kazmir 1.3581 1.5800 190.3
3 Aaron Harang 1.2719 1.5851 186.6
4 Chad Qualls 1.2183 1.7966 178.6
5 Tim Lincecum 1.1333 1.2716 175.2