2011 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2011, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Eric Thames 394
654
(260.0)
100
(294.0)
654
(260.0)
Denard Span 311
705
(394.0)
628
(317.0)
705
(394.0)
Chone Figgins 313
628
(315.0)
616
(303.0)
628
(315.0)
Dustin Ackley 376
683
(307.0)
100
(276.0)
683
(307.0)
Jacoby Ellsbury 732
467
(265.0)
313
(419.0)
467
(265.0)
Mike Moustakas 365
658
(293.0)
100
(265.0)
658
(293.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hanley Ramirez 677 385 292.0
2 Stephen Drew 645 354 291.0
3 Jose Tabata 671 382 289.0
4 Mike Carp 595 313 282.0
5 Joe Mauer 614 333 281.0
6 Miguel Tejada 615 343 272.0
7 Eduardo Núñez 608 338 270.0
8 Trevor Plouffe 582 320 262.0
9 Daniel Descalso 623 375 248.0
10 Franklin Gutierrez 587 344 243.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Hosmer 100 563 463.0
2 Freddie Freeman 221 635 414.0
3 Danny Espinosa 264 658 394.0
4 Mark Trumbo 213 573 360.0
5 Carlos Santana 303 658 355.0
6 Jemile Weeks 100 437 337.0
7 Alex Gordon 364 690 326.0
8 Darwin Barney 247 571 324.0
9 Ryan Roberts 269 555 286.0
10 Emilio Bonifácio 358 641 283.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hanley Ramirez 677 385 292.0
2 Stephen Drew 645 354 291.0
3 Jose Tabata 671 382 289.0
4 Mike Carp 595 313 282.0
5 Joe Mauer 614 333 281.0
6 Miguel Tejada 615 343 272.0
7 Eduardo Núñez 608 338 270.0
8 Trevor Plouffe 582 320 262.0
9 Daniel Descalso 623 375 248.0
10 Franklin Gutierrez 587 344 243.0

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Logan Morrison 0.0627
0.0271
(18.8)
0.0244
(20.5)
0.0271
(18.8)
Aaron Hill 0.0175
0.0517
(19.3)
0.0526
(19.6)
0.0517
(19.3)
Curtis Granderson 0.0965
0.0651
(21.9)
0.0565
(28.2)
0.0651
(21.9)
Hideki Matsui 0.0270
0.0536
(15.3)
0.0532
(14.8)
0.0536
(15.3)
Mark Trumbo 0.0686
0.0455
(13.4)
0.0333
(20.7)
0.0455
(13.4)
Matt Kemp 0.0867
0.0517
(24.4)
0.0524
(24.2)
0.0517
(24.4)
Russell Martin 0.0529
0.0270
(12.5)
0.0243
(14.0)
0.0270
(12.5)
Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.0507
0.0165
(23.0)
0.0167
(23.3)
0.0165
(23.0)
Adam Dunn 0.0458
0.1258
(39.5)
0.0947
(23.8)
0.1258
(39.5)
Adrian Beltré 0.0724
0.0474
(13.3)
0.0433
(15.7)
0.0474
(13.3)
Josh Willingham 0.0838
0.0556
(16.1)
0.0579
(15.1)
0.0556
(16.1)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.0558
0.0159
(29.5)
0.0202
(26.8)
0.0159
(29.5)
J.J. Hardy 0.0679
0.0373
(17.5)
0.0337
(19.8)
0.0373
(17.5)
Lance Berkman 0.0777
0.0503
(16.3)
0.0547
(14.0)
0.0503
(16.3)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Morse 0.0480 0.0775 17.2
2 Vladimir Guerrero 0.0526 0.0255 15.8
3 Chris Heisey 0.0373 0.0874 15.5
4 Adrián González 0.0739 0.0523 15.2
5 Andrew McCutchen 0.0307 0.0507 13.8
6 Jason Bay 0.0613 0.0351 13.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Bautista 0.0795 0.1059 17.9
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0672 0.0955 17.5
3 J.P. Arencibia 0.0437 0.0735 14.9
4 B.J. Upton 0.0349 0.0569 14.6
5 Ben Revere 0.0309 0.0000 14.4
6 Jemile Weeks 0.0386 0.0057 14.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Morse 0.0480 0.0775 17.2
2 Vladimir Guerrero 0.0526 0.0255 15.8
3 Chris Heisey 0.0373 0.0874 15.5
4 Adrián González 0.0739 0.0523 15.2
5 Andrew McCutchen 0.0307 0.0507 13.8
6 Jason Bay 0.0613 0.0351 13.2

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Rajai Davis 0.5312
0.3534
(60.6)
0.3158
(71.8)
0.3534
(60.6)
Carl Crawford 0.1667
0.2635
(51.4)
0.2453
(44.0)
0.2635
(51.4)
Eduardo Núñez 0.2785
0.1409
(47.0)
0.1186
(53.0)
0.1409
(47.0)
Will Venable 0.2680
0.1333
(56.0)
0.1491
(47.7)
0.1333
(56.0)
Aaron Hill 0.1591
0.0320
(73.4)
0.0407
(66.0)
0.0320
(73.4)
Ryan Braun 0.1908
0.1078
(53.1)
0.0897
(61.7)
0.1078
(53.1)
Orlando Hudson 0.1532
0.0483
(48.3)
0.0552
(43.2)
0.0483
(48.3)
Sam Fuld 0.2469
0.1163
(45.7)
0.0492
(67.4)
0.1163
(45.7)
Jeff Francoeur 0.1517
0.0355
(77.2)
0.0417
(70.3)
0.0355
(77.2)
Erick Aybar 0.2128
0.1232
(55.1)
0.1042
(63.9)
0.1232
(55.1)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.2053
0.3280
(88.8)
0.2892
(63.6)
0.3280
(88.8)
Jemile Weeks 0.1964
0.0899
(47.2)
0.0753
(51.6)
0.0899
(47.2)
Juan Pierre 0.1317
0.2761
(101.6)
0.2614
(94.3)
0.2761
(101.6)
Jordan Schafer 0.2500
0.1266
(42.2)
0.0526
(65.7)
0.1266
(42.2)
Cameron Maybin 0.2837
0.1119
(98.4)
0.0816
(113.1)
0.1119
(98.4)
Coco Crisp 0.3451
0.2500
(56.3)
0.2323
(64.0)
0.2500
(56.3)
Alex Rios 0.0965
0.1688
(40.4)
0.1778
(48.0)
0.1688
(40.4)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nyjer Morgan 0.2345 0.1102 52.7
2 Mike Aviles 0.0776 0.2295 47.4
3 Torii Hunter 0.0929 0.0296 40.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ben Revere 0.0536 0.2537 94.9
2 Alcides Escobar 0.0726 0.1926 70.0
3 Tony Gwynn Jr. 0.1171 0.2619 48.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nyjer Morgan 0.2345 0.1102 52.7
2 Mike Aviles 0.0776 0.2295 47.4
3 Torii Hunter 0.0929 0.0296 40.1

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Bobby Abreu 0.0923
0.1306
(19.2)
0.1365
(22.5)
0.1306
(19.2)
Howie Kendrick 0.1475
0.1153
(21.9)
0.1189
(20.0)
0.1153
(21.9)
Ryan Braun 0.1733
0.1431
(22.4)
0.1459
(20.8)
0.1431
(22.4)
Curtis Granderson 0.1968
0.1449
(39.6)
0.1426
(41.4)
0.1449
(39.6)
Ryan Roberts 0.1550
0.1130
(26.3)
0.1152
(25.2)
0.1130
(26.3)
Aubrey Huff 0.0777
0.1332
(29.0)
0.1304
(27.2)
0.1332
(29.0)
Matt Kemp 0.1669
0.1375
(24.0)
0.1332
(27.1)
0.1375
(24.0)
Omar Infante 0.0859
0.1204
(18.6)
0.1224
(19.7)
0.1204
(18.6)
Matt Wieters 0.1307
0.1013
(19.2)
0.0898
(25.6)
0.1013
(19.2)
Adam Dunn 0.0726
0.1332
(27.4)
0.1248
(23.1)
0.1332
(27.4)
Brennan Boesch 0.1589
0.0945
(33.0)
0.1034
(28.9)
0.0945
(33.0)
Adrian Beltré 0.1562
0.1252
(19.1)
0.1226
(20.6)
0.1252
(19.1)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.1626
0.1370
(22.7)
0.1374
(22.6)
0.1370
(22.7)
Melky Cabrera 0.1445
0.1002
(35.1)
0.1068
(30.6)
0.1002
(35.1)
José Reyes 0.1724
0.1418
(21.1)
0.1344
(25.6)
0.1418
(21.1)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Robinson Canó 0.1263 0.1527 21.7
2 Yadier Molina 0.0714 0.1062 20.8
3 Andrew McCutchen 0.1621 0.1283 19.2
4 Shane Victorino 0.1350 0.1621 19.1
5 Nick Markakis 0.1317 0.1006 18.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jayson Werth 0.1497 0.1063 24.4
2 Justin Upton 0.1301 0.1558 21.1
3 Casey McGehee 0.1167 0.0767 20.6
4 Mike Napoli 0.1268 0.1667 19.7
5 José Bautista 0.1384 0.1603 18.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Robinson Canó 0.1263 0.1527 21.7
2 Yadier Molina 0.0714 0.1062 20.8
3 Andrew McCutchen 0.1621 0.1283 19.2
4 Shane Victorino 0.1350 0.1621 19.1
5 Nick Markakis 0.1317 0.1006 18.4

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Curtis Granderson 0.1722
0.1208
(37.8)
0.1107
(44.6)
0.1208
(37.8)
Robinson Canó 0.1733
0.1339
(29.0)
0.1333
(29.2)
0.1339
(29.0)
Michael Young 0.1538
0.1159
(28.3)
0.1186
(26.3)
0.1159
(28.3)
Alex Avila 0.1488
0.1022
(27.4)
0.1091
(23.5)
0.1022
(27.4)
Matt Kemp 0.1829
0.1375
(33.5)
0.1316
(37.4)
0.1375
(33.5)
Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.1379
0.0926
(32.4)
0.1002
(27.2)
0.0926
(32.4)
Adam Dunn 0.0847
0.1612
(36.4)
0.1504
(31.1)
0.1612
(36.4)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.1434
0.0835
(46.2)
0.0863
(44.0)
0.0835
(46.2)
Drew Stubbs 0.0646
0.1043
(24.8)
0.1199
(35.6)
0.1043
(24.8)
Adrian Beltré 0.2000
0.1389
(33.7)
0.1297
(38.5)
0.1389
(33.7)
Josh Willingham 0.1741
0.1184
(33.1)
0.1210
(31.6)
0.1184
(33.1)
Andrew McCutchen 0.1313
0.1004
(23.1)
0.0983
(24.4)
0.1004
(23.1)
Alex Rios 0.0772
0.1279
(27.1)
0.1228
(24.3)
0.1279
(27.1)
Alfonso Soriano 0.1732
0.1332
(22.0)
0.1296
(23.7)
0.1332
(22.0)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Morse 0.1114 0.1652 32.8
2 Todd Helton 0.0928 0.1405 25.0
3 Melky Cabrera 0.0912 0.1232 24.8
4 Mike Moustakas 0.1520 0.0822 24.3
5 Maicer Izturis 0.1250 0.0769 22.2
6 Kosuke Fukudome 0.0975 0.0580 21.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Logan Morrison 0.0847 0.1371 29.1
2 Jayson Werth 0.1344 0.0894 27.3
3 Andres Torres 0.1149 0.0477 25.5
4 J.P. Arencibia 0.1116 0.1605 25.2
5 Vladimir Guerrero 0.1509 0.1068 24.3
6 Mark Trumbo 0.1127 0.1518 24.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Morse 0.1114 0.1652 32.8
2 Todd Helton 0.0928 0.1405 25.0
3 Melky Cabrera 0.0912 0.1232 24.8
4 Mike Moustakas 0.1520 0.0822 24.3
5 Maicer Izturis 0.1250 0.0769 22.2
6 Kosuke Fukudome 0.0975 0.0580 21.8

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Mike Napoli 0.3198
0.2541
(28.1)
0.2563
(28.4)
0.2541
(28.1)
Michael Young 0.3376
0.2850
(35.8)
0.2899
(34.4)
0.2850
(35.8)
Alex Avila 0.2953
0.2388
(30.8)
0.2448
(29.0)
0.2388
(30.8)
Matt Kemp 0.3239
0.2710
(36.0)
0.2740
(35.9)
0.2710
(36.0)
Kelly Johnson 0.2220
0.2749
(32.8)
0.2709
(28.6)
0.2749
(32.8)
José Bautista 0.3021
0.2489
(34.5)
0.2505
(35.3)
0.2489
(34.5)
Alex Gordon 0.3028
0.2435
(40.4)
0.2437
(42.3)
0.2435
(40.4)
Adam Dunn 0.1590
0.2515
(46.2)
0.2571
(47.5)
0.2515
(46.2)
Casey McGehee 0.2234
0.2717
(29.3)
0.2827
(34.2)
0.2717
(29.3)
David Ortiz 0.3086
0.2600
(29.0)
0.2579
(32.0)
0.2600
(29.0)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.3212
0.2840
(26.7)
0.2792
(32.4)
0.2840
(26.7)
Melky Cabrera 0.3055
0.2695
(25.0)
0.2613
(32.8)
0.2695
(25.0)
José Reyes 0.3371
0.2843
(30.5)
0.2821
(33.5)
0.2843
(30.5)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jemile Weeks 0.2176 0.3030 37.0
2 Carl Crawford 0.3123 0.2549 31.3
3 Miguel Cabrera 0.3037 0.3444 27.6
4 Alex Rios 0.2727 0.2272 26.3
5 Hanley Ramirez 0.3091 0.2426 25.9
6 Victor Martinez 0.2857 0.3296 25.7
7 Michael Bourn 0.2589 0.2942 25.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrián González 0.2830 0.3381 41.0
2 Casey Kotchman 0.2500 0.3060 32.8
3 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3175 0.2718 31.4
4 Jayson Werth 0.2778 0.2317 28.4
5 Emilio Bonifácio 0.2547 0.2956 27.7
6 Vernon Wells 0.2720 0.2178 27.5
7 Hunter Pence 0.2755 0.3135 26.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jemile Weeks 0.2176 0.3030 37.0
2 Carl Crawford 0.3123 0.2549 31.3
3 Miguel Cabrera 0.3037 0.3444 27.6
4 Alex Rios 0.2727 0.2272 26.3
5 Hanley Ramirez 0.3091 0.2426 25.9
6 Victor Martinez 0.2857 0.3296 25.7
7 Michael Bourn 0.2589 0.2942 25.0

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Kevin Millwood 222
796
(574.0)
747
(525.0)
796
(574.0)
Barry Zito 225
765
(540.0)
758
(533.0)
765
(540.0)
Josh Johnson 234
734
(500.0)
721
(487.0)
734
(500.0)
Kyle Davies 293
812
(519.0)
724
(431.0)
812
(519.0)
Brian Matusz 245
753
(508.0)
679
(434.0)
753
(508.0)
Alexi Ogando 693
273
(420.0)
196
(497.0)
273
(420.0)
Jon Garland 230
820
(590.0)
764
(534.0)
820
(590.0)
Bartolo Colon 694
171
(523.0)
280
(414.0)
171
(523.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Crow 759 266 493.0
2 David Huff 699 227 472.0
3 Clayton Mortensen 713 244 469.0
4 Zach Duke 785 338 447.0
5 Jeanmar Gómez 694 259 435.0
6 Chris Tillman 713 287 426.0
7 Luis Pérez 690 294 396.0
8 Brad Penny 413 803 390.0
9 Alex White 627 237 390.0
10 Brandon McCarthy 316 690 374.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 100 752 652.0
2 Michael Pineda 100 696 596.0
3 Zack Britton 100 666 566.0
4 Tyler Chatwood 100 633 533.0
5 Jeremy Hellickson 250 774 524.0
6 Josh Collmenter 100 621 521.0
7 Philip Humber 171 676 505.0
8 Chris Capuano 300 802 502.0
9 Daniel Hudson 443 921 478.0
10 Derek Holland 407 843 436.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Crow 759 266 493.0
2 David Huff 699 227 472.0
3 Clayton Mortensen 713 244 469.0
4 Zach Duke 785 338 447.0
5 Jeanmar Gómez 694 259 435.0
6 Chris Tillman 713 287 426.0
7 Luis Pérez 690 294 396.0
8 Brad Penny 413 803 390.0
9 Alex White 627 237 390.0
10 Brandon McCarthy 316 690 374.0

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Aníbal Sánchez 0.2434
0.1879
(44.8)
0.1860
(46.6)
0.1879
(44.8)
Matt Garza 0.2348
0.1868
(39.0)
0.1876
(38.6)
0.1868
(39.0)
Michael Pineda 0.2486
0.1800
(46.6)
0.1872
(41.9)
0.1800
(46.6)
Brad Penny 0.0922
0.1380
(38.1)
0.1551
(51.5)
0.1380
(38.1)
Cory Luebke 0.2775
0.1507
(69.5)
0.1901
(47.8)
0.1507
(69.5)
Brandon Beachy 0.2860
0.2024
(48.5)
0.1873
(57.6)
0.2024
(48.5)
Ricky Nolasco 0.1661
0.2315
(59.6)
0.2187
(48.0)
0.2315
(59.6)
Jason Hammel 0.1272
0.1782
(38.8)
0.1768
(37.6)
0.1782
(38.8)
Carl Pavano 0.1068
0.1469
(39.8)
0.1514
(43.8)
0.1469
(39.8)
Cliff Lee 0.2587
0.2112
(42.3)
0.1984
(54.3)
0.2112
(42.3)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Madison Bumgarner 0.1516 0.2263 61.8
2 Bartolo Colon 0.1170 0.1945 52.8
3 Alexi Ogando 0.2454 0.1818 45.1
4 Jeremy Hellickson 0.2070 0.1512 44.4
5 Vance Worley 0.1348 0.2152 43.6
6 Carlos Villanueva 0.2382 0.1498 40.8
7 Max Scherzer 0.2552 0.2089 39.9
8 Koji Uehara 0.1872 0.3498 39.1
9 Vinnie Pestano 0.1818 0.3360 38.2
10 Glen Perkins 0.1163 0.2569 35.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Craig Kimbrel 0.2293 0.4150 56.5
2 Zack Greinke 0.2149 0.2811 46.5
3 Kenley Jansen 0.2262 0.4404 46.4
4 Tyler Chatwood 0.1872 0.1169 45.3
5 Jeff Francis 0.1621 0.1133 40.2
6 Sergio Santos 0.2000 0.3538 39.7
7 Kevin Correia 0.1731 0.1167 38.1
8 Kyle McClellan 0.1852 0.1252 37.2
9 David Robertson 0.2322 0.3676 36.5
10 James Shields 0.1924 0.2308 36.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Madison Bumgarner 0.1516 0.2263 61.8
2 Bartolo Colon 0.1170 0.1945 52.8
3 Alexi Ogando 0.2454 0.1818 45.1
4 Jeremy Hellickson 0.2070 0.1512 44.4
5 Vance Worley 0.1348 0.2152 43.6
6 Carlos Villanueva 0.2382 0.1498 40.8
7 Max Scherzer 0.2552 0.2089 39.9
8 Koji Uehara 0.1872 0.3498 39.1
9 Vinnie Pestano 0.1818 0.3360 38.2
10 Glen Perkins 0.1163 0.2569 35.2

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Bruce Chen 0.4800
0.2400
(165.8)
0.2105
(129.6)
0.2400
(165.8)
Gio Gonzalez 0.5000
0.3235
(164.1)
0.2619
(144.0)
0.3235
(164.1)
Aaron Harang 0.5000
0.3333
(129.5)
0.1935
(169.0)
0.3333
(129.5)
Justin Verlander 0.7059
0.5625
(152.0)
0.3590
(267.0)
0.5625
(152.0)
Iván Nova 0.5714
0.2500
(235.8)
0.1111
(273.8)
0.2500
(235.8)
Mike Pelfrey 0.2059
0.3750
(133.8)
0.3000
(142.3)
0.3750
(133.8)
Alexi Ogando 0.4194
0.0702
(251.3)
0.1034
(169.5)
0.0702
(251.3)
Clayton Kershaw 0.6364
0.4242
(205.7)
0.2381
(298.1)
0.4242
(205.7)
Matt Harrison 0.4516
0.1724
(225.9)
0.1562
(172.9)
0.1724
(225.9)
Ian Kennedy 0.6364
0.3478
(271.8)
0.1750
(351.0)
0.3478
(271.8)
Kyle Lohse 0.4667
0.3182
(125.5)
0.2000
(151.3)
0.3182
(125.5)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 0.1000 0.4333 260.8
2 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.5294 0.3125 167.2
3 Brett Myers 0.3793 0.2059 146.7
4 Mat Latos 0.4783 0.2903 139.4
5 Philip Humber 0.1290 0.3214 139.2
6 Phil Coke 0.3667 0.0625 137.8
7 Aníbal Sánchez 0.4231 0.2500 132.5
8 Carl Pavano 0.4231 0.2727 130.7
9 Freddy Garcia 0.2667 0.4615 130.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Holland 0.1724 0.5000 216.0
2 C.J. Wilson 0.1786 0.4706 201.9
3 Daniel Hudson 0.2258 0.4848 172.8
4 Jered Weaver 0.3000 0.5455 161.2
5 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1739 0.4483 157.1
6 Zack Greinke 0.2821 0.5714 155.9
7 Dillon Gee 0.1429 0.4333 154.7
8 Jair Jurrjens 0.2812 0.5652 133.3
9 Justin Masterson 0.1364 0.3529 131.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 0.1000 0.4333 260.8
2 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.5294 0.3125 167.2
3 Brett Myers 0.3793 0.2059 146.7
4 Mat Latos 0.4783 0.2903 139.4
5 Philip Humber 0.1290 0.3214 139.2
6 Phil Coke 0.3667 0.0625 137.8
7 Aníbal Sánchez 0.4231 0.2500 132.5
8 Carl Pavano 0.4231 0.2727 130.7
9 Freddy Garcia 0.2667 0.4615 130.4

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
John Axford 0.6216
0.0000
(180.8)
0.2941
(105.3)
0.0000
(180.8)
Jordan Walden 0.5161
0.0000
(123.3)
0.0556
(121.0)
0.0000
(123.3)
Drew Storen 0.5890
0.0000
(169.8)
0.0857
(157.9)
0.0000
(169.8)
Jose Valverde 0.6533
0.0000
(188.0)
0.3778
(88.3)
0.0000
(188.0)
Heath Bell 0.6719
0.0000
(164.6)
0.4400
(63.9)
0.0000
(164.6)
Juan Carlos Oviedo 0.5294
0.0000
(134.2)
0.2941
(67.8)
0.0000
(134.2)
Carlos Marmol 0.4533
0.0000
(138.8)
0.2632
(68.0)
0.0000
(138.8)
Ryan Madson 0.5161
0.0000
(119.9)
0.0889
(109.5)
0.0000
(119.9)
Chris Perez 0.5625
0.0000
(132.4)
0.1875
(97.4)
0.0000
(132.4)
Joel Hanrahan 0.5714
0.0000
(148.7)
0.0784
(139.9)
0.0000
(148.7)
Brandon League 0.5692
0.0000
(135.1)
0.0577
(132.3)
0.0000
(135.1)
Sergio Santos 0.4762
0.0000
(116.3)
0.0294
(120.8)
0.0000
(116.3)
Craig Kimbrel 0.5823
0.0000
(169.4)
0.0500
(168.3)
0.0000
(169.4)
J.J. Putz 0.7500
0.0000
(165.2)
0.1000
(152.9)
0.0000
(165.2)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.6875 153.5
2 Brian Wilson 0.0000 0.6316 146.5
3 Francisco Cordero 0.0000 0.5441 141.2
4 Neftalí Feliz 0.0000 0.5000 118.8
5 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.4921 118.2
6 Joakim Soria 0.0000 0.4667 112.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.1429 0.0000 114.5
2 Alfredo Simon 0.2258 0.0000 103.8
3 Fernando Salas 0.0455 0.3529 95.9
4 Kyle Farnsworth 0.0227 0.3968 90.5
5 Mark Melancon 0.0455 0.2817 78.5
6 Brandon Morrow 0.0976 0.0000 62.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.6875 153.5
2 Brian Wilson 0.0000 0.6316 146.5
3 Francisco Cordero 0.0000 0.5441 141.2
4 Neftalí Feliz 0.0000 0.5000 118.8
5 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.4921 118.2
6 Joakim Soria 0.0000 0.4667 112.1

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
John Lackey 6.4125
4.1379
(1939.9)
4.1334
(1820.7)
4.1379
(1939.9)
Ryan Dempster 4.8040
3.7540
(1221.3)
3.7480
(1081.3)
3.7540
(1221.3)
Ubaldo Jiménez 4.6832
3.0585
(1612.0)
3.4171
(1181.6)
3.0585
(1612.0)
Bronson Arroyo 5.0653
4.2090
(1019.8)
4.0428
(1020.8)
4.2090
(1019.8)
James Shields 2.8155
4.3811
(1198.5)
4.4852
(1460.9)
4.3811
(1198.5)
J.A. Happ 5.3539
4.2950
(973.9)
3.5200
(1399.7)
4.2950
(973.9)
Brian Matusz 10.6913
4.3775
(1629.3)
4.3021
(1607.3)
4.3775
(1629.3)
Matt Harrison 3.3932
4.9951
(977.0)
4.8706
(1008.3)
4.9951
(977.0)
Doug Fister 2.8290
4.6362
(1287.0)
4.1230
(982.4)
4.6362
(1287.0)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 6.1338 2.7050 2325.5
2 Philip Humber 6.3984 3.7546 1559.9
3 Edinson Volquez 3.6565 5.7147 1170.9
4 Max Scherzer 3.4412 4.4308 1104.5
5 Ricky Nolasco 3.7759 4.6748 1100.6
6 Esmil Rogers 4.6901 7.0482 1088.5
7 Chad Billingsley 3.2996 4.2128 1035.9
8 Félix Hernández 2.7458 3.4665 1019.0
9 Aaron Crow 6.7514 2.7581 972.8
10 Carlos Zambrano 3.7062 4.8192 918.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 3.3853 5.2330 1435.5
2 Charlie Morton 5.4918 3.8272 1148.3
3 Josh Beckett 4.5562 2.8912 1145.6
4 Justin Verlander 3.6949 2.4024 1086.4
5 Kyle Lohse 4.8964 3.3929 1032.4
6 Johnny Cueto 4.0862 2.3077 1014.1
7 Ian Kennedy 4.1013 2.8784 946.4
8 Justin Masterson 4.4164 3.2083 941.4
9 Casey Coleman 4.2099 6.4032 941.1
10 Derek Lowe 4.0933 5.0535 939.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 6.1338 2.7050 2325.5
2 Philip Humber 6.3984 3.7546 1559.9
3 Edinson Volquez 3.6565 5.7147 1170.9
4 Max Scherzer 3.4412 4.4308 1104.5
5 Ricky Nolasco 3.7759 4.6748 1100.6
6 Esmil Rogers 4.6901 7.0482 1088.5
7 Chad Billingsley 3.2996 4.2128 1035.9
8 Félix Hernández 2.7458 3.4665 1019.0
9 Aaron Crow 6.7514 2.7581 972.8
10 Carlos Zambrano 3.7062 4.8192 918.9

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
John Lackey 1.6187
1.3246
(267.0)
1.3505
(225.7)
1.3246
(267.0)
Ricky Romero 1.1378
1.3963
(177.3)
1.3730
(183.1)
1.3963
(177.3)
Esmil Rogers 1.8916
1.4789
(193.1)
1.4870
(177.8)
1.4789
(193.1)
Brad Penny 1.5633
1.4002
(183.3)
1.3940
(164.5)
1.4002
(183.3)
James Shields 1.0428
1.2981
(185.4)
1.3582
(272.8)
1.2981
(185.4)
Justin Verlander 0.9203
1.1953
(203.3)
1.2316
(267.2)
1.1953
(203.3)
Jake Westbrook 1.5327
1.3398
(208.8)
1.3405
(184.3)
1.3398
(208.8)
Brian Matusz 2.1141
1.3781
(196.3)
1.3639
(192.5)
1.3781
(196.3)
Clayton Kershaw 0.9771
1.2390
(179.4)
1.2534
(219.5)
1.2390
(179.4)
Doug Fister 1.0632
1.3844
(224.1)
1.3024
(178.2)
1.3844
(224.1)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 1.9455 1.2523 472.2
2 Philip Humber 1.7188 1.1779 321.5
3 Josh Collmenter 1.5812 1.0691 277.5
4 Ricky Nolasco 1.1737 1.3981 258.0
5 Guillermo Moscoso 1.5993 1.0938 231.6
6 Chad Billingsley 1.2542 1.4521 218.1
7 Josh Tomlin 1.4363 1.0766 194.9
8 Ubaldo Jiménez 1.2324 1.4018 192.8
9 Ryan Dempster 1.3102 1.4481 179.0
10 Nick Blackburn 1.4033 1.5978 173.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyler Chatwood 1.2989 1.6690 256.8
2 Josh Beckett 1.3384 1.0259 212.4
3 Kyle Lohse 1.4767 1.1681 211.6
4 Brian Duensing 1.2844 1.5155 189.6
5 Joel Pineiro 1.2605 1.5103 180.1
6 J.A. Happ 1.3156 1.5352 178.1
7 Trevor Cahill 1.2658 1.4254 175.8
8 Cole Hamels 1.2284 0.9861 175.7
9 Kyle Drabek 1.3598 1.8051 175.5
10 Danny Duffy 1.2989 1.6139 166.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 1.9455 1.2523 472.2
2 Philip Humber 1.7188 1.1779 321.5
3 Josh Collmenter 1.5812 1.0691 277.5
4 Ricky Nolasco 1.1737 1.3981 258.0
5 Guillermo Moscoso 1.5993 1.0938 231.6
6 Chad Billingsley 1.2542 1.4521 218.1
7 Josh Tomlin 1.4363 1.0766 194.9
8 Ubaldo Jiménez 1.2324 1.4018 192.8
9 Ryan Dempster 1.3102 1.4481 179.0
10 Nick Blackburn 1.4033 1.5978 173.9