2015 Projection Evaluation

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kris Bryant	1	650	649.0
2	Odúbel Herrera	1	537	536.0
3	Anthony Gose	1	535	534.0
4	Addison Russell	1	523	522.0
5	Delino DeShields	1	492	491.0
6	Mark Canha	1	485	484.0
7	Eddie Rosario	1	474	473.0
8	Jung Ho Kang	1	467	466.0
9	Francisco Lindor	1	438	437.0
10	Carlos Correa	1	432	431.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Matt Duffy	100	612	512.5
2	Addison Russell	33	523	489.8
3	Billy Burns	101	555	454.0
4	Desmond Jennings	555	108	446.6
5	Carlos Correa	1	432	431.0
6	Devin Mesoraco	469	51	418.0
7	Oswaldo Arcia	476	65	410.6
8	J.T. Realmuto	62	467	405.1
9	Arismendy Alcántara	428	32	395.8
10	Michael Saunders	431	36	394.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Arismendy Alcántara	645	32	613.0
2	Jorge Polanco	596	12	584.0
3	Javier Báez	650	80	570.0
4	Brandon Drury	625	59	566.0
5	Kyle Waldrop	563	1	562.0
6	Matt Duffy	567	9	558.0
7	Michael Choice	559	1	558.0
8	Christian Walker	569	12	557.0
9	Sócrates Brito	585	34	551.0
10	Robbie Grossman	604	54	550.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Bryce Harper	0.4663	0.3439 (77.3)	0.3653 (62.6)	0.3690 (53.6)
Nelson Cruz	0.4000	0.3499 (30.1)	0.3291 (42.9)	0.3303 (35.6)
Troy Tulowitzki	0.3380	0.3906 (30.4)	0.3899 (30.6)	0.4025 (42.6)
Logan Forsythe	0.3507	0.2917 (33.7)	0.2844 (37.5)	0.2847 (31.2)
Victor Martinez	0.2928	0.3690 (39.0)	0.3717 (40.9)	0.3601 (40.1)
Omar Infante	0.2365	0.3039 (32.6)	0.2981 (30.4)	0.2897 (31.2)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Moustakas	0.2895	0.3515	35.5
2	Manny Machado	0.3166	0.3700	35.1
3	René Rivera	0.3136	0.2118	33.8
4	Josh Donaldson	0.3475	0.3965	31.8
5	Nolan Arenado	0.3254	0.3773	31.7
6	Danny Santana	0.3362	0.2272	31.4
7	Kris Bryant	0.3185	0.3708	31.2
8	Adam LaRoche	0.3423	0.2831	30.7
9	Chris Owings	0.3051	0.2538	30.7
10	Yadier Molina	0.3420	0.2888	30.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Carlos Correa	0.2556	0.3666	45.7
2	AJ Pollock	0.3041	0.3708	41.4
3	Alex Rodriguez	0.3007	0.3636	35.8
4	Lorenzo Cain	0.3003	0.3624	34.3
5	Odúbel Herrera	0.2619	0.3302	33.9
6	Pablo Sandoval	0.3489	0.2880	33.5
7	Dee Strange-Gordon	0.2794	0.3348	32.7
8	Joey Votto	0.3806	0.4325	32.4
9	Francisco Lindor	0.2683	0.3471	32.2
10	Wilson Ramos	0.3242	0.2663	31.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Owings	0.3099	0.2538	39.4
2	Wilson Ramos	0.3254	0.2663	37.5
3	Adam LaRoche	0.3452	0.2831	37.5
4	Ian Desmond	0.3289	0.2916	33.7
5	Pablo Sandoval	0.3368	0.2880	32.4
6	Melky Cabrera	0.3379	0.3068	31.7
7	Yadier Molina	0.3318	0.2888	30.9
8	Jean Segura	0.3056	0.2684	30.7
9	Starlin Castro	0.3284	0.2921	29.8
10	Billy Hamilton	0.2963	0.2461	29.7

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Chris Owings	0.2609	0.1984 (33.6)	0.1878 (36.1)	0.1873 (44.8)
Matt Carpenter	0.2271	0.1603 (43.3)	0.1581 (40.8)	0.1556 (52.6)
Josh Reddick	0.1117	0.1933 (48.4)	0.1847 (46.9)	0.1976 (45.6)
Xander Bogaerts	0.1544	0.2250 (47.2)	0.2064 (38.9)	0.2142 (34.1)
Brett Lawrie	0.2392	0.1701 (40.7)	0.1557 (45.7)	0.1667 (48.2)
Jorge Soler	0.2995	0.2140 (33.9)	0.2119 (32.3)	0.2232 (33.9)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kris Bryant	0.1987	0.3062	68.8
2	Steven Souza Jr.	0.2074	0.3380	55.0
3	Kevin Pillar	0.2202	0.1354	54.3
4	Miguel Sanó	0.1987	0.3552	51.9
5	Joc Pederson	0.2115	0.2906	45.3
6	Addison Russell	0.1987	0.2849	44.2
7	Michael A. Taylor	0.2281	0.3092	40.6
8	Daniel Murphy	0.1443	0.0706	40.5
9	Jose Iglesias	0.1803	0.0969	38.6
10	Anthony Gose	0.1987	0.2710	37.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Steven Souza Jr.	0.2343	0.3380	41.0
2	Daniel Murphy	0.1371	0.0706	39.8
3	A.J. Pierzynski	0.1668	0.0849	39.0
4	Stephen Drew	0.2444	0.1659	36.9
5	Lorenzo Cain	0.2135	0.1623	35.5
6	Randal Grichuk	0.2082	0.3143	34.5
7	Starling Marte	0.2389	0.1943	33.0
8	Addison Russell	0.2173	0.2849	31.4
9	Brandon Phillips	0.1517	0.1091	31.2
10	Buster Posey	0.1248	0.0835	30.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ian Desmond	0.2358	0.2917	40.7
2	Jung Ho Kang	0.3048	0.2120	39.8
3	Nick Castellanos	0.1965	0.2555	39.6
4	Troy Tulowitzki	0.1488	0.2135	38.6
5	Kole Calhoun	0.1913	0.2391	38.0
6	Randal Grichuk	0.2142	0.3143	37.7
7	Stephen Drew	0.2565	0.1659	35.6
8	Yasmany Tomás	0.1827	0.2582	35.4
9	Odúbel Herrera	0.1844	0.2402	34.1
10	George Springer	0.3245	0.2417	33.9

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Bryce Harper	0.1896	0.0994 (59.0)	0.1109 (50.8)	0.1127 (46.0)
Derek Norris	0.0628	0.1087 (25.6)	0.1089 (26.2)	0.1214 (36.3)
Miguel Cabrera	0.1507	0.1013 (25.2)	0.1067 (22.0)	0.1050 (20.0)
Joc Pederson	0.1573	0.1013 (32.7)	0.1035 (30.9)	0.1099 (23.8)
Miguel Sanó	0.1582	0.0782 (26.8)	0.0760 (27.2)	0.0799 (24.0)
Troy Tulowitzki	0.0712	0.1101 (20.8)	0.1094 (20.9)	0.1072 (22.8)
Paul Goldschmidt	0.1698	0.1206 (34.1)	0.1285 (28.0)	0.1311 (22.3)
Ryan Howard	0.0537	0.0901 (18.3)	0.0945 (21.0)	0.0913 (22.2)
Manny Machado	0.0982	0.0517 (33.1)	0.0584 (27.6)	0.0494 (30.1)
Stephen Vogt	0.1096	0.0646 (23.0)	0.0638 (22.9)	0.0625 (20.7)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joey Votto	0.1679	0.2058	26.3
2	Kris Bryant	0.0782	0.1185	26.2
3	Alex Rodriguez	0.0948	0.1355	25.2
4	Eddie Rosario	0.0782	0.0316	22.1
5	Andrew McCutchen	0.1134	0.1431	20.3
6	José Bautista	0.1347	0.1652	20.3
7	Chris Davis	0.0962	0.1254	19.5
8	Yangervis Solarte	0.0936	0.0595	19.5
9	Jean Segura	0.0542	0.0223	18.6
10	Ryan Goins	0.0481	0.0911	18.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Rodriguez	0.0891	0.1355	28.1
2	José Abreu	0.0949	0.0584	25.0
3	Joey Votto	0.1695	0.2058	24.5
4	Prince Fielder	0.1217	0.0924	21.0
5	Hanley Ramirez	0.0956	0.0488	20.5
6	Matt Kemp	0.0907	0.0602	20.4
7	Ryan Goins	0.0445	0.0911	19.5
8	David Peralta	0.0479	0.0851	18.7
9	Kyle Schwarber	0.0642	0.1319	18.2
10	Kris Bryant	0.0897	0.1185	18.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	José Abreu	0.0962	0.0584	29.7
2	Prince Fielder	0.1182	0.0924	22.5
3	Hanley Ramirez	0.0929	0.0488	21.8
4	Matt Kemp	0.0870	0.0602	21.6
5	Billy Burns	0.0790	0.0468	21.5
6	Marcus Semien	0.0976	0.0699	20.6
7	Xander Bogaerts	0.0725	0.0489	19.7
8	Chase Headley	0.1035	0.0794	19.7
9	Jean Segura	0.0492	0.0223	19.6
10	David Peralta	0.0415	0.0851	19.2

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Anthony Rizzo	0.0428	0.0153 (19.1)	0.0130 (20.7)	0.0154 (19.1)
Justin Turner	0.0296	0.0105 (8.3)	0.0110 (8.0)	0.0157 (6.0)
Mike Moustakas	0.0212	0.0079 (8.1)	0.0090 (7.3)	0.0088 (7.5)
Kolten Wong	0.0245	0.0092 (9.2)	0.0080 (9.9)	0.0072 (10.4)
Khris Davis	0.0023	0.0183 (7.1)	0.0160 (6.2)	0.0187 (7.3)
Lorenzo Cain	0.0199	0.0081 (7.0)	0.0090 (6.4)	0.0094 (6.2)
Alex Gordon	0.0332	0.0119 (8.9)	0.0110 (9.2)	0.0121 (8.8)
Evan Gattis	0.0050	0.0137 (5.4)	0.0130 (5.0)	0.0169 (7.4)
Brandon Crawford	0.0196	0.0056 (7.8)	0.0070 (6.9)	0.0056 (7.7)
Brian McCann	0.0206	0.0099 (5.6)	0.0090 (6.0)	0.0102 (5.4)
Jason Kipnis	0.0140	0.0055 (5.4)	0.0060 (5.0)	0.0048 (5.8)
Logan Forsythe	0.0228	0.0127 (6.1)	0.0110 (7.0)	0.0140 (5.3)
Rougned Odor	0.0298	0.0117 (8.4)	0.0110 (8.7)	0.0134 (7.6)
Brandon Guyer	0.0623	0.0231 (15.1)	0.0210 (15.8)	0.0298 (12.5)
David Freese	0.0255	0.0119 (6.3)	0.0120 (6.2)	0.0138 (5.4)
Jung Ho Kang	0.0364	0.0089 (12.8)	0.0070 (13.6)	0.0159 (9.5)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adam Eaton	0.0119	0.0203	5.7
2	Lucas Duda	0.0149	0.0253	5.6
3	Aramis Ramirez	0.0204	0.0097	5.6
4	Didi Gregorius	0.0100	0.0190	5.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lucas Duda	0.0120	0.0253	7.2
2	José Abreu	0.0120	0.0225	6.8
3	Derek Dietrich	0.0240	0.0450	6.0
4	Jon Jay	0.0240	0.0449	5.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aramis Ramirez	0.0235	0.0097	7.2
2	Francisco Cervelli	0.0284	0.0157	6.6
3	Odúbel Herrera	0.0035	0.0149	6.0
4	Victor Martinez	0.0038	0.0144	5.1

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
J.D. Martinez	0.0903	0.0489 (24.4)	0.0560 (20.9)	0.0574 (17.3)
Bryce Harper	0.1066	0.0510 (33.6)	0.0616 (27.8)	0.0683 (20.7)
Justin Bour	0.0744	0.0294 (18.2)	0.0384 (15.0)	0.0333 (15.4)
Nelson Cruz	0.1030	0.0700 (18.9)	0.0662 (22.5)	0.0692 (17.8)
Matt Carpenter	0.0656	0.0223 (26.0)	0.0217 (27.6)	0.0197 (26.1)
Nolan Arenado	0.0812	0.0354 (27.6)	0.0419 (24.6)	0.0346 (26.6)
Manny Machado	0.0663	0.0338 (20.2)	0.0388 (17.9)	0.0372 (16.0)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joc Pederson	0.0325	0.0828	27.0
2	Miguel Sanó	0.0398	0.1111	22.5
3	Alex Rodriguez	0.0493	0.0857	20.0
4	Josh Donaldson	0.0509	0.0822	19.2
5	Delino DeShields	0.0398	0.0060	18.7
6	Chris Davis	0.0952	0.1270	18.5
7	Kris Bryant	0.0398	0.0712	17.7
8	Mike Trout	0.0676	0.0972	17.3
9	Mark Teixeira	0.0581	0.0994	17.1
10	Carlos González	0.0618	0.0935	16.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Rodriguez	0.0426	0.0857	25.2
2	Carlos Correa	0.0185	0.0703	21.3
3	Chris Davis	0.0944	0.1270	20.2
4	Xander Bogaerts	0.0412	0.0135	19.7
5	José Abreu	0.0875	0.0633	17.8
6	Franklin Gutierrez	0.0314	0.1271	17.6
7	Brandon Crawford	0.0215	0.0536	16.6
8	Brandon Moss	0.0878	0.0586	16.6
9	Luis Valbuena	0.0396	0.0755	16.5
10	Mike Trout	0.0708	0.0972	16.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chase Headley	0.0559	0.0245	24.4
2	Adam LaRoche	0.0801	0.0403	22.5
3	George Springer	0.0970	0.0563	21.3
4	Brandon Moss	0.0915	0.0586	20.8
5	Delino DeShields	0.0398	0.0060	19.9
6	Carlos Correa	0.0199	0.0703	18.9
7	Kris Bryant	0.0932	0.0712	18.6
8	Xander Bogaerts	0.0329	0.0135	17.0
9	José Abreu	0.0811	0.0633	16.3
10	Troy Tulowitzki	0.0685	0.0452	15.9

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Bryce Harper	0.3693	0.3154 (35.0)	0.3177 (29.6)	0.3233 (28.1)
Nelson Cruz	0.3499	0.2957 (35.3)	0.2816 (40.5)	0.2821 (42.5)
Stephen Drew	0.1987	0.2727 (31.8)	0.2709 (33.6)	0.2647 (29.5)
Jayson Werth	0.2531	0.3388 (32.5)	0.3300 (31.5)	0.3234 (27.7)
Miguel Sanó	0.3958	0.2993 (32.2)	0.2829 (35.7)	0.2877 (35.2)
Albert Pujols	0.2170	0.2706 (35.6)	0.2674 (37.5)	0.2701 (37.1)
Carlos González	0.2835	0.3292 (28.0)	0.3338 (34.4)	0.3271 (28.3)
Paul Goldschmidt	0.3811	0.3396 (28.6)	0.3238 (35.3)	0.3353 (29.8)
Chris Colabello	0.4107	0.2921 (42.6)	0.3028 (36.6)	0.2899 (42.4)
Xander Bogaerts	0.3699	0.2951 (48.7)	0.3016 (40.5)	0.3155 (33.6)
Jason Kipnis	0.3529	0.3040 (31.2)	0.2951 (33.0)	0.3021 (30.7)
Torii Hunter	0.2581	0.3325 (42.3)	0.3291 (43.8)	0.3102 (31.2)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kris Bryant	0.2993	0.3776	50.7
2	Odúbel Herrera	0.2993	0.3819	44.2
3	Yunel Escobar	0.2778	0.3464	40.4
4	Dee Strange-Gordon	0.3210	0.3785	37.4
5	Nick Hundley	0.2766	0.3559	30.7
6	Victor Martinez	0.3114	0.2526	28.7
7	Joe Mauer	0.3514	0.3088	28.6
8	Jimmy Paredes	0.2952	0.3689	28.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Odúbel Herrera	0.2853	0.3819	48.4
2	Dee Strange-Gordon	0.3025	0.3785	45.5
3	Billy Burns	0.2681	0.3387	35.6
4	Randal Grichuk	0.2626	0.3655	33.8
5	Kris Bryant	0.3207	0.3776	32.8
6	Hanley Ramirez	0.3259	0.2571	32.3
7	David Peralta	0.2996	0.3681	32.1
8	Victor Martinez	0.3083	0.2526	30.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jay Bruce	0.3094	0.2512	39.7
2	Yunel Escobar	0.2847	0.3464	34.7
3	Joc Pederson	0.3121	0.2604	32.0
4	Billy Hamilton	0.3228	0.2572	31.1
5	Billy Burns	0.2861	0.3387	27.5
6	Logan Forsythe	0.2759	0.3230	27.1
7	Luis Valbuena	0.2866	0.2353	26.8
8	Randal Grichuk	0.2861	0.3655	26.7

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Dee Strange-Gordon	0.3183	0.2568 (41.0)	0.2430 (47.4)	0.2723 (29.7)
Nelson Cruz	0.2898	0.2151 (49.8)	0.2061 (53.1)	0.2103 (51.8)
Todd Frazier	0.1736	0.2237 (33.0)	0.2110 (27.1)	0.2191 (31.2)
Jay Bruce	0.1579	0.2012 (27.3)	0.2065 (33.2)	0.2210 (41.2)
Yunel Escobar	0.2898	0.2222 (40.7)	0.2399 (27.9)	0.2323 (33.7)
José Bautista	0.1580	0.2059 (31.0)	0.1974 (28.0)	0.2037 (30.7)
Paul Goldschmidt	0.2788	0.2296 (35.1)	0.2251 (35.5)	0.2254 (36.8)
Chris Colabello	0.3214	0.2178 (37.8)	0.2283 (32.6)	0.2085 (40.5)
Xander Bogaerts	0.2955	0.2235 (48.0)	0.2267 (43.2)	0.2330 (40.6)
Freddy Galvis	0.2630	0.1884 (45.8)	0.1904 (42.2)	0.1871 (45.5)
Brandon Phillips	0.2734	0.2286 (28.8)	0.2232 (29.6)	0.2245 (30.2)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Odúbel Herrera	0.2242	0.2912	36.7
2	Kris Bryant	0.2242	0.2714	31.5
3	Billy Burns	0.2222	0.2769	31.1
4	DJ LeMahieu	0.2538	0.3026	31.1
5	Torii Hunter	0.2563	0.2030	29.5
6	Cameron Maybin	0.2140	0.2645	28.8
7	Jayson Werth	0.2568	0.1826	27.6
8	Aramis Ramirez	0.2269	0.1722	27.6
9	Ian Kinsler	0.2079	0.2454	26.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Billy Burns	0.2164	0.2769	32.1
2	Odúbel Herrera	0.2292	0.2912	31.9
3	Torii Hunter	0.2554	0.2030	31.2
4	Omar Infante	0.2376	0.1733	30.4
5	Francisco Cervelli	0.2328	0.2930	29.3
6	Jorge Soler	0.2112	0.2815	27.3
7	Ryan Zimmerman	0.2359	0.1686	27.3
8	Brian Dozier	0.2032	0.1674	27.1
9	Prince Fielder	0.2277	0.2682	26.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jorge Soler	0.1798	0.2815	40.9
2	Aramis Ramirez	0.2364	0.1722	33.4
3	Prince Fielder	0.2211	0.2682	32.4
4	Joc Pederson	0.2452	0.1910	32.0
5	Francisco Cervelli	0.2313	0.2930	31.2
6	Miguel Cabrera	0.2405	0.2961	28.2
7	Daniel Murphy	0.2412	0.1898	27.9
8	Joey Votto	0.2388	0.2794	27.9
9	Ryan Howard	0.2283	0.1742	27.5

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Bryce Harper	0.1080	0.0604 (30.3)	0.0698 (23.3)	0.0633 (27.2)
Todd Frazier	0.0945	0.0643 (19.7)	0.0656 (18.0)	0.0655 (17.6)
Matt Carpenter	0.1103	0.0822 (17.9)	0.0769 (20.6)	0.0783 (19.2)
Freddy Galvis	0.0304	0.0580 (17.3)	0.0562 (17.0)	0.0680 (24.5)
Albert Pujols	0.0446	0.0734 (19.8)	0.0646 (14.8)	0.0763 (23.0)
Lucas Duda	0.1068	0.0692 (20.2)	0.0693 (19.5)	0.0756 (15.6)
Brandon Crawford	0.0889	0.0618 (14.5)	0.0556 (17.4)	0.0606 (14.2)
Alcides Escobar	0.0364	0.0570 (14.5)	0.0562 (14.7)	0.0558 (14.9)
Jason Kipnis	0.0937	0.0667 (16.5)	0.0683 (14.7)	0.0656 (16.0)
Brandon Phillips	0.0371	0.0597 (14.9)	0.0592 (15.3)	0.0567 (14.1)
Evan Gattis	0.0471	0.0729 (16.4)	0.0681 (14.2)	0.0749 (18.7)
Hanley Ramirez	0.0381	0.0841 (20.3)	0.0844 (21.0)	0.0931 (25.0)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jhonny Peralta	0.0842	0.0569	18.3
2	Randal Grichuk	0.0667	0.1168	17.1
3	Billy Hamilton	0.0584	0.0231	16.6
4	Miguel Sanó	0.0674	0.1181	16.5
5	Logan Forsythe	0.0513	0.0789	16.3
6	Francisco Cervelli	0.0785	0.0479	16.3
7	Kris Bryant	0.0674	0.0914	14.8
8	Gregory Polanco	0.0512	0.0751	14.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Randal Grichuk	0.0631	0.1168	17.9
2	Odúbel Herrera	0.0474	0.0824	17.5
3	Logan Morrison	0.0697	0.0414	15.7
4	Michael Brantley	0.0676	0.0962	15.6
5	Michael Conforto	0.0271	0.1094	15.5
6	Andrés Blanco	0.0571	0.1189	15.5
7	Miguel Sanó	0.0716	0.1181	14.7
8	Yoenis Cespedes	0.0675	0.0909	14.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Odúbel Herrera	0.0425	0.0824	19.8
2	Michael A. Taylor	0.0811	0.0495	17.7
3	Jhonny Peralta	0.0803	0.0569	17.0
4	Andrés Blanco	0.0518	0.1189	16.7
5	Kole Calhoun	0.0723	0.0516	16.3
6	Billy Hamilton	0.0542	0.0231	15.5
7	Logan Forsythe	0.0517	0.0789	14.8
8	Yoenis Cespedes	0.0665	0.0909	14.4

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Brett Gardner	0.0070	0.0180 (7.5)	0.0148 (6.0)	0.0208 (8.8)
Eddie Rosario	0.0457	0.0076 (17.9)	0.0107 (16.0)	0.0090 (17.7)
Michael Bourn	0.0061	0.0208 (7.3)	0.0167 (5.7)	0.0223 (7.6)
Charlie Blackmon	0.0182	0.0074 (7.1)	0.0074 (6.5)	0.0095 (6.3)
Billy Burns	0.0206	0.0069 (7.3)	0.0070 (6.8)	0.0107 (5.8)
Randal Grichuk	0.0355	0.0111 (8.4)	0.0076 (9.3)	0.0120 (8.4)
Evan Gattis	0.0259	0.0035 (13.3)	0.0041 (12.4)	0.0037 (13.7)
Rajai Davis	0.0421	0.0057 (13.3)	0.0065 (12.7)	0.0061 (13.5)
Marcell Ozuna	0.0000	0.0137 (7.0)	0.0108 (6.0)	0.0145 (6.9)
Delino DeShields	0.0300	0.0076 (10.8)	0.0082 (10.1)	0.0076 (11.3)
Starling Marte	0.0045	0.0201 (10.1)	0.0164 (8.3)	0.0250 (12.6)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Anthony Gose	0.0076	0.0237	8.4
2	Bryce Harper	0.0134	0.0028	7.2
3	Mookie Betts	0.0045	0.0158	7.1
4	Tommy Pham	0.0072	0.0463	6.7
5	Carlos Gómez	0.0159	0.0031	6.3
6	Paulo Orlando	0.0076	0.0326	6.2
7	Josh Harrison	0.0161	0.0029	6.1
8	Jason Kipnis	0.0053	0.0153	6.1
9	Abraham Almonte	0.0046	0.0278	5.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jason Kipnis	0.0048	0.0153	5.9
2	Kevin Kiermaier	0.0175	0.0297	5.9
3	David Peralta	0.0164	0.0290	5.8
4	Alejandro De Aza	0.0123	0.0294	5.8
5	Kris Bryant	0.0047	0.0147	5.7
6	Aaron Altherr	0.0064	0.0426	5.6
7	Mookie Betts	0.0061	0.0158	5.5
8	Bryce Harper	0.0099	0.0028	5.5
9	Tommy Pham	0.0138	0.0463	5.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	AJ Pollock	0.0240	0.0118	7.8
2	James McCann	0.0000	0.0162	7.1
3	Josh Harrison	0.0184	0.0029	6.7
4	Andre Ethier	0.0093	0.0227	6.2
5	Carlos Gómez	0.0161	0.0031	6.0
6	Didi Gregorius	0.0152	0.0045	5.9
7	Cameron Maybin	0.0159	0.0050	5.8
8	Carlos González	0.0150	0.0052	5.7
9	Alejandro De Aza	0.0144	0.0294	5.7

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Josh Donaldson	0.1716	0.1291 (28.7)	0.1312 (24.9)	0.1293 (29.3)
Bryce Harper	0.1804	0.1317 (30.5)	0.1320 (28.2)	0.1332 (30.2)
Delino DeShields	0.1687	0.1145 (25.6)	0.0987 (31.8)	0.1145 (26.2)
Lorenzo Cain	0.1672	0.1131 (31.4)	0.1069 (33.2)	0.1094 (34.3)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	J.D. Martinez	0.0992	0.1416	26.5
2	Yadier Molina	0.1104	0.0642	25.6
3	AJ Pollock	0.1269	0.1649	24.2
4	Kole Calhoun	0.1457	0.1137	23.4
5	Danny Valencia	0.0924	0.1561	23.3
6	Brandon Moss	0.1306	0.0894	22.8
7	Eric Hosmer	0.1107	0.1469	22.8
8	Russell Martin	0.1029	0.1499	22.7
9	Michael Bourn	0.1253	0.0809	22.4
10	Nolan Arenado	0.1102	0.1459	22.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	AJ Pollock	0.1046	0.1649	37.0
2	Victor Martinez	0.1299	0.0804	26.6
3	Kyle Schwarber	0.0940	0.1905	24.9
4	DJ LeMahieu	0.0923	0.1371	24.5
5	Nick Castellanos	0.1061	0.0706	24.3
6	Grégor Blanco	0.0880	0.1586	24.3
7	Brandon Moss	0.1284	0.0894	23.3
8	Yadier Molina	0.1021	0.0642	22.9
9	Pablo Sandoval	0.1245	0.0851	22.6
10	Matt Duffy	0.0848	0.1258	21.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Nolan Arenado	0.1039	0.1459	27.2
2	DJ LeMahieu	0.0960	0.1371	24.9
3	Kole Calhoun	0.1478	0.1137	24.1
4	Melky Cabrera	0.1355	0.1025	23.2
5	Jedd Gyorko	0.1234	0.0742	23.0
6	Russell Martin	0.1038	0.1499	22.9
7	Ángel Pagán	0.1398	0.0998	22.6
8	Danny Valencia	0.0960	0.1561	22.3
9	J.D. Martinez	0.1082	0.1416	21.3
10	Mike Zunino	0.1263	0.0725	21.1

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Brandon Moss	0.1103	0.1474 (21.2)	0.1474 (20.1)	0.1472 (21.4)
Nolan Arenado	0.1955	0.1142 (52.0)	0.1326 (41.0)	0.1180 (49.1)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Anthony Gose	0.1091	0.0486	34.0
2	Bryce Harper	0.0994	0.1514	32.0
3	Kendrys Morales	0.1190	0.1659	27.9
4	Josh Donaldson	0.1324	0.1730	26.7
5	Kris Bryant	0.1091	0.1523	26.1
6	Justin Smoak	0.1000	0.1799	25.2
7	Brandon Crawford	0.1019	0.1497	25.1
8	Shin-Soo Choo	0.0851	0.1256	24.4
9	Starling Marte	0.0879	0.1280	23.4
10	Adam LaRoche	0.1352	0.0909	22.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brandon Crawford	0.0892	0.1497	33.3
2	Carlos Correa	0.0826	0.1574	31.8
3	Matt Carpenter	0.0833	0.1263	27.8
4	Kendrys Morales	0.1221	0.1659	27.2
5	Matt Duffy	0.0832	0.1258	25.3
6	Daniel Murphy	0.0897	0.1357	24.1
7	Justin Bour	0.1087	0.1637	24.0
8	Pablo Sandoval	0.1382	0.0931	23.4
9	Mitch Moreland	0.1193	0.1650	23.0
10	Ryan Zimmerman	0.1272	0.1872	22.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mark Trumbo	0.1780	0.1174	35.0
2	Adam LaRoche	0.1498	0.0909	30.3
3	George Springer	0.1501	0.0909	28.4
4	Gregory Polanco	0.1193	0.0798	28.2
5	Marcell Ozuna	0.1402	0.0891	27.1
6	Pablo Sandoval	0.1412	0.0931	26.2
7	Shin-Soo Choo	0.0821	0.1256	25.9
8	Marcus Semien	0.1136	0.0749	25.5
9	Bryce Harper	0.1107	0.1514	24.2
10	Ian Desmond	0.1305	0.0967	24.0

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
AJ Pollock	0.2143	0.1183 (71.3)	0.1264 (66.4)	0.1630 (46.7)
Anthony Rizzo	0.0854	0.0397 (39.0)	0.0367 (41.7)	0.0357 (47.5)
Jake Marisnick	0.3200	0.1282 (75.1)	0.1668 (61.0)	0.1721 (61.7)
Charlie Blackmon	0.2416	0.1324 (81.3)	0.1375 (78.4)	0.1387 (82.5)
Billy Hamilton	0.5327	0.3471 (88.8)	0.4369 (48.4)	0.4091 (64.3)
Carlos González	0.0154	0.1196 (57.3)	0.0880 (37.6)	0.1287 (57.9)
Ryan Braun	0.1633	0.1016 (40.7)	0.0790 (54.0)	0.1069 (42.3)
Manny Machado	0.1058	0.0381 (55.4)	0.0444 (51.5)	0.0397 (60.1)
Brandon Phillips	0.1345	0.0492 (59.4)	0.0329 (70.0)	0.0444 (67.4)
Justin Upton	0.1242	0.0658 (42.4)	0.0492 (53.1)	0.0723 (43.4)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kevin Pillar	0.0492	0.1656	79.4
2	Delino DeShields	0.0572	0.1880	69.3
3	Anthony Gose	0.0572	0.1716	66.6
4	Kevin Kiermaier	0.0674	0.1607	55.3
5	César Hernández	0.0405	0.1496	53.8
6	Mike Trout	0.1421	0.0564	51.6
7	Jason Kipnis	0.1528	0.0674	48.3
8	Michael A. Taylor	0.0577	0.1416	48.0
9	Alcides Escobar	0.1752	0.1043	40.3
10	Carlos Correa	0.0572	0.1346	37.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joc Pederson	0.1284	0.0256	53.8
2	Jason Heyward	0.0807	0.1369	40.8
3	Cameron Maybin	0.0976	0.1523	36.3
4	Jimmy Paredes	0.1475	0.0444	35.4
5	Ezequiel Carrera	0.2354	0.0408	35.3
6	Billy Burns	0.2434	0.1699	34.8
7	José Reyes	0.1382	0.1935	34.3
8	Addison Russell	0.1099	0.0342	34.0
9	Jace Peterson	0.1470	0.0795	33.9
10	Kevin Kiermaier	0.1090	0.1607	33.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Delino DeShields	0.0572	0.1880	73.2
2	Jace Peterson	0.1967	0.0795	59.2
3	Joc Pederson	0.1389	0.0256	55.7
4	Jimmy Paredes	0.2039	0.0444	54.3
5	Billy Burns	0.2754	0.1699	48.5
6	Jason Kipnis	0.1553	0.0674	44.7
7	Jason Heyward	0.0870	0.1369	41.5
8	Alcides Escobar	0.1849	0.1043	41.4
9	Ezequiel Carrera	0.2632	0.0408	39.2
10	Eric Young Jr.	0.0572	0.4286	36.6

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Bryce Harper	0.3301	0.2689 (39.4)	0.2787 (31.8)	0.2800 (27.6)
Dee Strange-Gordon	0.3333	0.2680 (42.0)	0.2557 (48.9)	0.2814 (28.7)
Matt Duffy	0.2949	0.2535 (24.8)	0.2478 (27.2)	0.2478 (24.0)
Francisco Lindor	0.3128	0.2581 (23.5)	0.2341 (33.3)	0.2441 (26.6)
Jayson Werth	0.2205	0.2931 (27.8)	0.2857 (25.7)	0.2758 (23.9)
Chris Colabello	0.3213	0.2305 (32.3)	0.2460 (26.1)	0.2298 (30.1)
Xander Bogaerts	0.3197	0.2431 (49.5)	0.2596 (37.5)	0.2628 (32.1)
Jason Kipnis	0.3027	0.2593 (27.1)	0.2525 (30.4)	0.2563 (24.6)
Logan Forsythe	0.2815	0.2394 (25.2)	0.2321 (28.7)	0.2240 (30.5)
Torii Hunter	0.2399	0.2926 (30.4)	0.2850 (27.1)	0.2787 (26.5)
Victor Martinez	0.2455	0.3072 (30.4)	0.3082 (31.7)	0.3033 (31.9)
Omar Infante	0.2205	0.2735 (24.6)	0.2737 (25.5)	0.2687 (25.6)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Yunel Escobar	0.2549	0.3140	34.4
2	Mike Moustakas	0.2306	0.2842	32.3
3	AJ Pollock	0.2722	0.3153	28.3
4	Nick Hundley	0.2284	0.3005	27.7
5	Chase Utley	0.2693	0.2118	24.7
6	René Rivera	0.2530	0.1779	24.3
7	Ian Desmond	0.2690	0.2333	23.5
8	Adam LaRoche	0.2543	0.2075	23.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Billy Burns	0.2281	0.2942	35.2
2	AJ Pollock	0.2604	0.3153	35.1
3	Nelson Cruz	0.2497	0.3017	32.3
4	Odúbel Herrera	0.2395	0.2970	29.4
5	Ender Inciarte	0.2545	0.3034	25.9
6	Paul Goldschmidt	0.2821	0.3210	25.2
7	Pablo Sandoval	0.2913	0.2447	24.9
8	Carlos Correa	0.2194	0.2791	24.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Owings	0.2755	0.2272	31.1
2	Billy Burns	0.2338	0.2942	29.1
3	Nelson Cruz	0.2496	0.3017	28.9
4	Ian Desmond	0.2679	0.2333	27.3
5	Albert Pujols	0.2740	0.2442	25.0
6	Ichiro Suzuki	0.2776	0.2286	24.9
7	Prince Fielder	0.2618	0.3051	24.5
8	Jay Bruce	0.2550	0.2259	24.1

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Bryce Harper	0.4602	0.3449 (74.9)	0.3612 (62.5)	0.3649 (54.4)
Omar Infante	0.2340	0.3111 (35.5)	0.3109 (36.6)	0.3020 (36.5)
Jayson Werth	0.3016	0.3820 (30.7)	0.3736 (28.5)	0.3620 (27.5)
Paul Goldschmidt	0.4352	0.3796 (38.0)	0.3767 (38.2)	0.3782 (31.2)
Logan Forsythe	0.3593	0.3053 (32.7)	0.2998 (34.5)	0.3006 (28.7)
Victor Martinez	0.3010	0.3717 (34.7)	0.3752 (37.7)	0.3604 (34.7)
Hanley Ramirez	0.2907	0.3526 (27.0)	0.3632 (32.7)	0.3455 (28.8)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Moustakas	0.2866	0.3475	36.9
2	Xander Bogaerts	0.3031	0.3548	33.3
3	René Rivera	0.3142	0.2134	32.4
4	Yunel Escobar	0.3190	0.3746	32.4
5	Joey Votto	0.4123	0.4590	31.8
6	Manny Machado	0.3137	0.3586	31.4
7	Kendrys Morales	0.3117	0.3615	31.3
8	Kris Bryant	0.3211	0.3692	30.7
9	Curtis Granderson	0.3210	0.3636	28.5
10	Dee Strange-Gordon	0.3154	0.3586	27.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Nelson Cruz	0.3089	0.3695	37.4
2	AJ Pollock	0.3097	0.3670	36.2
3	Joey Votto	0.4050	0.4590	35.1
4	Dee Strange-Gordon	0.3044	0.3586	33.1
5	Curtis Granderson	0.3128	0.3636	32.3
6	Odúbel Herrera	0.2808	0.3440	32.1
7	Carlos Correa	0.2694	0.3449	31.1
8	Wilson Ramos	0.3153	0.2579	30.7
9	David Peralta	0.3089	0.3714	30.5
10	Joe Panik	0.3046	0.3776	30.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Troy Tulowitzki	0.3895	0.3371	34.5
2	Wilson Ramos	0.3121	0.2579	33.4
3	Nelson Cruz	0.3088	0.3695	31.7
4	Chris Owings	0.3087	0.2642	31.3
5	Joe Mauer	0.3712	0.3383	30.0
6	Jean Segura	0.3179	0.2806	28.9
7	Miguel Sanó	0.2881	0.3851	28.4
8	Jay Bruce	0.3257	0.2943	28.3
9	Robinson Canó	0.3635	0.3338	28.2
10	Melky Cabrera	0.3423	0.3142	27.5

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Josh Donaldson	0.5677	0.4537 (74.0)	0.4722 (61.3)	0.4682 (52.6)
Bryce Harper	0.6488	0.4499 (123.5)	0.4871 (99.6)	0.4941 (84.4)
Victor Martinez	0.3659	0.4814 (60.9)	0.4848 (62.2)	0.4728 (64.2)
Nolan Arenado	0.5747	0.4406 (82.5)	0.4685 (64.4)	0.4630 (57.3)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mark Teixeira	0.4173	0.5485	56.0
2	Adam LaRoche	0.4444	0.3403	55.2
3	Yadier Molina	0.4429	0.3504	54.3
4	Yoenis Cespedes	0.4539	0.5419	52.7
5	Mike Moustakas	0.3772	0.4699	50.8
6	Troy Tulowitzki	0.5251	0.4403	50.6
7	J.D. Martinez	0.4483	0.5352	50.6
8	Michael Cuddyer	0.5016	0.3905	49.4
9	Ian Desmond	0.4508	0.3842	49.1
10	Michael Bourn	0.3736	0.2824	48.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Carlos Correa	0.3110	0.5116	82.7
2	Nelson Cruz	0.4565	0.5661	65.7
3	Alex Rodriguez	0.3723	0.4857	64.5
4	AJ Pollock	0.3932	0.4975	63.9
5	Francisco Lindor	0.3293	0.4821	62.8
6	Matt Carpenter	0.4032	0.5052	61.7
7	Mark Teixeira	0.4121	0.5485	58.7
8	Brandon Crawford	0.3498	0.4615	57.4
9	Lorenzo Cain	0.3763	0.4773	55.4
10	Logan Forsythe	0.3457	0.4444	55.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Troy Tulowitzki	0.5525	0.4403	73.5
2	Adam LaRoche	0.4623	0.3403	71.4
3	Chris Owings	0.4102	0.3223	62.6
4	Pablo Sandoval	0.4535	0.3660	57.1
5	Carlos Correa	0.3571	0.5116	55.7
6	Ian Desmond	0.4437	0.3842	54.5
7	Nelson Cruz	0.4578	0.5661	54.2
8	Wilson Ramos	0.4397	0.3579	54.1
9	Chase Headley	0.4271	0.3690	53.7
10	Yadier Molina	0.4258	0.3504	53.5

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Henderson Alvarez III	102	699 (597.0)	698 (595.9)	716 (614.1)
Homer Bailey	51	637 (586.0)	701 (650.1)	731 (680.1)
Brandon McCarthy	94	725 (631.0)	728 (633.7)	705 (611.1)
Adam Wainwright	111	785 (674.0)	810 (698.5)	841 (730.1)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Carlos Rodón	1	607	606.0
2	Noah Syndergaard	1	603	602.0
3	Chris Heston	169	746	577.0
4	Brad Peacock	568	22	546.0
5	Anthony DeSclafani	241	785	544.0
6	Kevin Correia	644	114	530.0
7	Eduardo Rodriguez	1	522	521.0
8	Jason Vargas	704	183	521.0
9	Lance McCullers Jr.	1	520	519.0
10	Michael Lorenzen	1	515	514.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Heston	4	746	741.7
2	Derek Holland	864	245	619.2
3	Jason Vargas	798	183	614.8
4	Carlos Rodón	1	607	606.0
5	Chris Rusin	4	594	589.7
6	Ricky Nolasco	754	173	581.2
7	Jhoulys Chacín	654	111	543.3
8	Brett Oberholtzer	688	171	517.2
9	Lance McCullers Jr.	5	520	515.4
10	Michael Lorenzen	4	515	510.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tyler Matzek	811	102	708.9
2	Dan Straily	742	76	666.0
3	Marcus Stroman	734	103	631.0
4	Andrew Albers	631	11	620.1
5	Chris Volstad	625	7	617.9
6	Chris Beck	642	31	610.9
7	Adam Wilk	618	10	608.0
8	Jon Moscot	653	50	603.1
9	Scott Copeland	667	69	597.9
10	Zach Lee	613	24	589.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
David Buchanan	0.4098	0.3094 (32.8)	0.3276 (26.1)	0.3035 (29.7)
Kyle Kendrick	0.3901	0.3216 (38.8)	0.3401 (26.5)	0.3100 (36.8)
Marco Estrada	0.2764	0.3066 (26.8)	0.3098 (29.9)	0.2949 (29.1)
Dallas Keuchel	0.2541	0.3131 (59.9)	0.3100 (58.1)	0.2774 (41.0)
Jeremy Guthrie	0.3739	0.3259 (27.3)	0.3293 (24.4)	0.3014 (33.7)
Jake Arrieta	0.2254	0.2815 (54.7)	0.2924 (65.1)	0.2763 (63.1)
Zack Greinke	0.2235	0.2910 (62.7)	0.2808 (55.0)	0.2555 (45.3)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kyle Lohse	0.2965	0.3601	37.8
2	Matt Garza	0.2966	0.3565	35.4
3	Jacob deGrom	0.2855	0.2487	32.8
4	Jaime García	0.3104	0.2541	32.2
5	Max Scherzer	0.2857	0.2571	31.9
6	Andrew Cashner	0.2864	0.3328	31.8
7	Michael Lorenzen	0.3130	0.3795	30.8
8	Alfredo Simon	0.3021	0.3448	29.4
9	Erasmo Ramírez	0.3252	0.2880	29.3
10	Eddie Butler	0.3200	0.4025	28.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jacob deGrom	0.2958	0.2487	41.3
2	Sonny Gray	0.3028	0.2619	40.5
3	Chris Archer	0.3047	0.2716	35.5
4	Chris Young	0.3353	0.2781	32.6
5	Chris Rusin	0.3111	0.3722	31.7
6	Lance McCullers Jr.	0.3428	0.2903	31.4
7	Clayton Kershaw	0.2544	0.2303	28.5
8	Erasmo Ramírez	0.3225	0.2880	28.2
9	Ian Kennedy	0.2981	0.3453	28.0
10	James Shields	0.2961	0.3350	26.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	James Shields	0.2543	0.3350	50.7
2	Andrew Cashner	0.2597	0.3328	41.3
3	Phil Hughes	0.2615	0.3461	40.9
4	Lance McCullers Jr.	0.3468	0.2903	40.7
5	Matt Garza	0.2774	0.3565	38.3
6	Kyle Lohse	0.2838	0.3601	36.3
7	Ian Kennedy	0.2769	0.3453	33.3
8	Cody Anderson	0.3479	0.2805	32.5
9	Rick Porcello	0.2747	0.3394	31.7
10	Félix Hernández	0.2401	0.2976	29.5

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Chris Archer	0.2903	0.2069 (70.6)	0.2070 (71.7)	0.2033 (61.7)
Jeff Samardzija	0.1791	0.2284 (46.7)	0.2211 (38.8)	0.2376 (67.8)
Alex Wood	0.1735	0.2296 (46.5)	0.2265 (43.0)	0.2200 (50.1)
R.A. Dickey	0.1425	0.1995 (52.1)	0.1832 (36.5)	0.1818 (48.9)
Carlos Carrasco	0.2959	0.2232 (51.6)	0.2287 (48.6)	0.2185 (44.8)
Chris Sale	0.3208	0.2619 (48.6)	0.2835 (31.3)	0.2662 (33.0)
Phil Hughes	0.1444	0.2061 (41.5)	0.1993 (36.2)	0.2120 (54.4)
Clayton Kershaw	0.3382	0.2673 (61.3)	0.2886 (43.6)	0.2823 (35.5)
Kyle Hendricks	0.2260	0.1762 (35.3)	0.1729 (38.7)	0.1627 (34.9)
Dallas Keuchel	0.2371	0.1795 (50.7)	0.1748 (56.2)	0.1731 (43.7)
Travis Wood	0.2816	0.1861 (39.2)	0.1781 (43.1)	0.1791 (36.2)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Noah Syndergaard	0.2040	0.2753	41.8
2	Mark Buehrle	0.1582	0.1100	41.5
3	Jered Weaver	0.1911	0.1345	39.2
4	Justin Nicolino	0.2040	0.0764	39.0
5	James Shields	0.2042	0.2512	38.6
6	Yovani Gallardo	0.1932	0.1526	33.8
7	Max Scherzer	0.2677	0.3070	33.5
8	Dellin Betances	0.2917	0.3946	33.5
9	Jake Arrieta	0.2314	0.2713	32.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jacob deGrom	0.2201	0.2730	39.2
2	Lance McCullers Jr.	0.1769	0.2481	36.7
3	Odrisamer Despaigne	0.1901	0.1261	35.3
4	Carlos Martinez	0.1974	0.2437	34.5
5	Jake Arrieta	0.2335	0.2713	32.3
6	James Shields	0.2151	0.2512	30.4
7	Brett Anderson	0.1930	0.1547	29.2
8	Carson Smith	0.2207	0.3239	29.1
9	Wily Peralta	0.1849	0.1255	28.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brett Anderson	0.1992	0.1547	45.5
2	Jered Weaver	0.1830	0.1345	43.1
3	Yovani Gallardo	0.1892	0.1526	41.7
4	Odrisamer Despaigne	0.1853	0.1261	41.1
5	Matt Garza	0.1960	0.1562	37.2
6	Jonathon Niese	0.1788	0.1468	37.0
7	Marco Estrada	0.2156	0.1807	36.9
8	Collin McHugh	0.2220	0.1991	33.5
9	Wily Peralta	0.1781	0.1255	32.8

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Trevor May	0.0528	0.0878 (17.4)	0.0999 (23.7)	0.1024 (22.4)
Max Scherzer	0.0378	0.0708 (29.9)	0.0653 (25.7)	0.0660 (21.6)
Julio Teheran	0.0866	0.0627 (19.8)	0.0615 (20.3)	0.0565 (28.8)
James Shields	0.0942	0.0610 (28.2)	0.0573 (30.8)	0.0562 (36.2)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.0860	0.1117 (20.6)	0.1044 (15.4)	0.1140 (18.9)
Jake Arrieta	0.0552	0.0794 (21.4)	0.0801 (22.6)	0.0901 (26.9)
Taijuan Walker	0.0567	0.0852 (20.4)	0.0880 (22.9)	0.0838 (16.3)
Michael Pineda	0.0314	0.0546 (15.7)	0.0541 (15.8)	0.0586 (15.5)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Carlos Rodón	0.0766	0.1170	24.3
2	Jacob deGrom	0.0776	0.0506	20.6
3	Michael Lorenzen	0.0766	0.1107	17.4
4	Mike Pelfrey	0.0864	0.0630	16.9
5	J.A. Happ	0.0847	0.0628	16.0
6	Madison Bumgarner	0.0628	0.0449	15.9
7	Dellin Betances	0.0729	0.1205	15.7
8	Mark Buehrle	0.0585	0.0399	15.7
9	Ross Detwiler	0.0705	0.1250	15.6
10	Noah Syndergaard	0.0766	0.0514	15.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lance McCullers Jr.	0.1330	0.0827	26.7
2	Carlos Rodón	0.0766	0.1170	23.8
3	Roberto Osuna	0.1199	0.0590	16.8
4	Jacob deGrom	0.0714	0.0506	16.4
5	Gerrit Cole	0.0714	0.0529	16.3
6	Mike Fiers	0.0619	0.0841	16.1
7	Blake Treinen	0.0569	0.1143	15.8
8	Jose Quintana	0.0677	0.0510	15.3
9	Mark Buehrle	0.0566	0.0399	14.7
10	Juan Nicasio	0.0662	0.1231	14.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lance McCullers Jr.	0.1397	0.0827	27.5
2	Raisel Iglesias	0.1403	0.0709	25.8
3	Félix Hernández	0.0520	0.0702	18.4
4	Mike Fiers	0.0641	0.0841	18.3
5	Matt Harvey	0.0763	0.0490	17.6
6	Ross Detwiler	0.0686	0.1250	17.4
7	Blake Treinen	0.0577	0.1143	17.0
8	Tyson Ross	0.0857	0.1021	16.8
9	Andrew Cashner	0.0654	0.0821	16.7
10	Alex Colomé	0.1084	0.0678	16.7

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Chris Archer	0.0035	0.0111 (6.8)	0.0099 (5.9)	0.0122 (6.3)
Rick Porcello	0.0136	0.0053 (6.0)	0.0067 (4.8)	0.0051 (7.4)
Justin Masterson	0.0366	0.0180 (5.0)	0.0144 (6.0)	0.0198 (5.0)
Jered Weaver	0.0179	0.0081 (6.5)	0.0079 (6.5)	0.0070 (8.3)
Scott Feldman	0.0000	0.0114 (5.2)	0.0097 (4.5)	0.0133 (5.3)
Nick Martinez	0.0233	0.0055 (9.8)	0.0080 (8.3)	0.0097 (8.4)
Fernando Rodney	0.0289	0.0075 (5.9)	0.0082 (5.6)	0.0079 (6.2)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.0139	0.0067 (5.6)	0.0075 (4.8)	0.0045 (8.6)
Chris Heston	0.0174	0.0059 (8.4)	0.0101 (5.2)	0.0116 (5.5)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Dallas Keuchel	0.0082	0.0022	5.7
2	Mike Leake	0.0102	0.0039	5.0
3	Jesse Chavez	0.0101	0.0030	4.9
4	Drew Hutchison	0.0090	0.0166	4.9
5	Trevor Bauer	0.0130	0.0067	4.8
6	Carson Smith	0.0081	0.0246	4.7
7	Danny Duffy	0.0073	0.0153	4.6
8	Scott Kazmir	0.0056	0.0118	4.5
9	Alfredo Simon	0.0151	0.0098	4.5
10	John Danks	0.0095	0.0039	4.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Pelfrey	0.0090	0.0168	5.3
2	Chris Bassitt	0.0103	0.0249	5.2
3	Dallas Keuchel	0.0073	0.0022	4.9
4	C.J. Wilson	0.0094	0.0181	4.6
5	Randy Choate	0.0116	0.0513	4.6
6	Jonathan Papelbon	0.0096	0.0269	4.4
7	Drew Hutchison	0.0097	0.0166	4.4
8	Mike Leake	0.0091	0.0039	4.3
9	Masahiro Tanaka	0.0083	0.0016	4.3
10	Jesse Hahn	0.0090	0.0197	4.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Raisel Iglesias	0.0036	0.0177	6.2
2	Scott Kazmir	0.0053	0.0118	6.2
3	Cole Hamels	0.0059	0.0114	6.1
4	Corey Kluber	0.0071	0.0124	6.1
5	Kyle Gibson	0.0027	0.0085	6.0
6	Mike Pelfrey	0.0100	0.0168	6.0
7	Yordano Ventura	0.0065	0.0130	5.6
8	Jose Quintana	0.0049	0.0093	5.1
9	Anthony DeSclafani	0.0144	0.0064	5.1
10	Masahiro Tanaka	0.0115	0.0016	5.1

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Kyle Kendrick	0.0664	0.0346 (17.4)	0.0408 (14.1)	0.0374 (17.0)
Mike Pelfrey	0.0193	0.0318 (11.9)	0.0344 (13.0)	0.0342 (12.1)
Matthew Boyd	0.0904	0.0376 (12.3)	0.0393 (12.1)	0.0376 (12.8)
Aníbal Sánchez	0.0614	0.0221 (23.3)	0.0325 (17.0)	0.0239 (23.5)
Shelby Miller	0.0213	0.0373 (17.2)	0.0398 (18.6)	0.0412 (18.8)
James Shields	0.0596	0.0326 (19.7)	0.0323 (20.7)	0.0228 (29.9)
Jake Arrieta	0.0172	0.0273 (12.3)	0.0311 (14.8)	0.0330 (15.5)
Ian Kennedy	0.0646	0.0363 (17.2)	0.0378 (16.9)	0.0335 (20.7)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Taijuan Walker	0.0280	0.0500	12.6
2	Gio González	0.0270	0.0155	11.8
3	Gerrit Cole	0.0290	0.0191	11.6
4	Yovani Gallardo	0.0354	0.0249	11.6
5	Jaime García	0.0338	0.0158	11.3
6	Matt Shoemaker	0.0343	0.0580	11.2
7	Kyle Lohse	0.0363	0.0569	11.0
8	Erasmo Ramírez	0.0449	0.0326	10.9
9	John Lackey	0.0394	0.0316	10.6
10	Kirby Yates	0.0397	0.1587	10.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Nathan Eovaldi	0.0408	0.0200	16.1
2	Gio González	0.0312	0.0155	14.3
3	Anthony DeSclafani	0.0437	0.0296	13.6
4	Rubby De La Rosa	0.0344	0.0541	13.3
5	Yovani Gallardo	0.0374	0.0249	12.5
6	Jose Quintana	0.0363	0.0253	12.3
7	Masahiro Tanaka	0.0341	0.0566	11.8
8	Kirby Yates	0.0343	0.1587	11.2
9	Evan Scribner	0.0338	0.0833	11.0
10	Rick Porcello	0.0283	0.0463	11.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Phil Hughes	0.0252	0.0538	17.4
2	Max Scherzer	0.0278	0.0462	14.8
3	Rubby De La Rosa	0.0339	0.0541	14.7
4	Carlos Rodón	0.0492	0.0283	13.9
5	Héctor Santiago	0.0347	0.0544	13.8
6	Lance McCullers Jr.	0.0532	0.0292	13.5
7	Matt Shoemaker	0.0331	0.0580	13.0
8	Anthony DeSclafani	0.0435	0.0296	12.4
9	Rick Porcello	0.0281	0.0463	12.0
10	Edinson Volquez	0.0379	0.0260	11.8

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Chris Young	0.2095	0.2621 (27.5)	0.2694 (32.6)	0.2697 (34.9)
Will Harris	0.1921	0.3095 (33.0)	0.2909 (28.7)	0.3007 (32.6)
Josh Tomlin	0.1988	0.3092 (28.3)	0.2931 (25.0)	0.3019 (28.3)
Drew Hutchison	0.3428	0.2941 (30.8)	0.2886 (32.4)	0.2884 (29.8)
Michael Pineda	0.3319	0.2664 (42.2)	0.2824 (29.5)	0.2833 (26.1)
Marco Estrada	0.2157	0.2727 (43.0)	0.2798 (50.3)	0.2745 (49.6)
Gio González	0.3406	0.2870 (38.8)	0.2898 (34.4)	0.2797 (38.8)
Dallas Keuchel	0.2688	0.3048 (34.8)	0.3026 (35.7)	0.2918 (29.6)
Héctor Santiago	0.2520	0.2901 (31.4)	0.2805 (26.2)	0.2805 (29.6)
Masahiro Tanaka	0.2422	0.2961 (34.2)	0.2858 (29.8)	0.2839 (31.2)
Dan Haren	0.2558	0.2892 (27.4)	0.2880 (28.8)	0.2923 (35.4)
Jake Arrieta	0.2456	0.2806 (32.4)	0.2908 (44.0)	0.2780 (36.5)
Zack Greinke	0.2295	0.2990 (60.5)	0.2842 (50.6)	0.2818 (52.2)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Andrew Cashner	0.2805	0.3303	38.2
2	Danny Salazar	0.3167	0.2777	31.3
3	Max Scherzer	0.2988	0.2675	30.2
4	Mike Leake	0.2949	0.2598	29.1
5	Colby Lewis	0.3204	0.2891	28.9
6	Chris Sale	0.2867	0.3227	28.8
7	Wade Davis	0.3116	0.2000	28.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Sonny Gray	0.2970	0.2551	39.3
2	Nathan Eovaldi	0.2875	0.3367	29.5
3	R.A. Dickey	0.2848	0.2572	29.1
4	Mike Leake	0.2907	0.2598	28.2
5	Joaquín Benoit	0.2832	0.1824	27.0
6	Chi Chi González	0.2948	0.2057	26.4
7	Garrett Richards	0.2982	0.2738	25.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Andrew Cashner	0.2755	0.3303	36.3
2	Sonny Gray	0.2784	0.2551	27.3
3	Rick Porcello	0.2857	0.3320	27.1
4	Cody Anderson	0.3008	0.2369	26.8
5	Chi Chi González	0.2904	0.2057	26.4
6	Tyson Ross	0.2781	0.3196	26.3
7	David Buchanan	0.2869	0.3688	25.4

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jordan Zimmermann	0.2567	0.2178 (32.2)	0.2167 (29.7)	0.2816 (32.0)
Marco Estrada	0.1588	0.2005 (30.4)	0.2098 (40.1)	0.2745 (37.9)
Gio González	0.2638	0.2106 (40.1)	0.2173 (32.0)	0.2797 (36.0)
Nathan Eovaldi	0.2837	0.2336 (33.6)	0.2156 (42.9)	0.2994 (32.1)
Héctor Santiago	0.1726	0.2310 (45.4)	0.2194 (39.6)	0.2805 (34.5)
Masahiro Tanaka	0.1559	0.2207 (39.6)	0.2143 (38.2)	0.2839 (39.4)
Dan Haren	0.1735	0.2108 (28.8)	0.2092 (30.7)	0.2923 (42.5)
Jake Arrieta	0.1825	0.2117 (25.6)	0.2181 (34.8)	0.2780 (27.9)
A.J. Burnett	0.2763	0.2231 (37.0)	0.2182 (37.6)	0.2906 (34.3)
Zack Greinke	0.1866	0.2303 (37.0)	0.2131 (26.0)	0.2818 (26.8)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Drew Hutchison	0.2081	0.2555	31.3
2	Jake Odorizzi	0.2243	0.1801	31.1
3	Wade Davis	0.2465	0.1267	30.1
4	Andrew Cashner	0.2104	0.2464	28.8
5	Michael Pineda	0.2007	0.2420	27.4
6	Danny Salazar	0.2405	0.2046	27.3
7	Josh Tomlin	0.2336	0.1287	26.4
8	CC Sabathia	0.2292	0.2653	26.1
9	Alex Colomé	0.2158	0.2708	25.0
10	Max Scherzer	0.2175	0.1903	24.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Drew Hutchison	0.1943	0.2555	37.7
2	CC Sabathia	0.2160	0.2653	32.7
3	Chris Sale	0.2166	0.2530	27.4
4	Mike Pelfrey	0.2259	0.2679	26.9
5	Aroldis Chapman	0.1996	0.2975	26.0
6	R.A. Dickey	0.2136	0.1891	25.4
7	Chris Heston	0.2464	0.2168	25.3
8	Brett Anderson	0.2213	0.2588	24.9
9	Alex Wood	0.2199	0.2551	24.8
10	Joaquín Benoit	0.2124	0.1195	24.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Young	0.2697	0.1397	33.3
2	Tyson Ross	0.2781	0.2529	31.5
3	Alex Wood	0.2831	0.2551	28.4
4	Rick Porcello	0.2857	0.2602	27.9
5	Josh Tomlin	0.3019	0.1287	27.6
6	Andrew Cashner	0.2755	0.2464	27.5
7	Chris Sale	0.2842	0.2530	27.4
8	Jake Odorizzi	0.2812	0.1801	26.4
9	Brett Anderson	0.2876	0.2588	25.9
10	Ian Kennedy	0.2890	0.1893	25.9

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Kevin Jepsen	0.0103	0.0659 (16.2)	0.0650 (15.7)	0.0000 (15.7)
Jordan Zimmermann	0.0419	0.0644 (19.9)	0.0654 (19.8)	0.0000 (19.6)
Jeremy Hellickson	0.0901	0.0640 (15.7)	0.0643 (16.1)	0.0000 (15.6)
Michael Lorenzen	0.0997	0.0655 (16.9)	0.0646 (17.9)	0.0000 (17.6)
Brett Anderson	0.0458	0.0724 (21.1)	0.0668 (16.1)	0.0000 (14.8)
Bud Norris	0.1133	0.0677 (16.6)	0.0642 (18.3)	0.0000 (18.0)
Dallas Keuchel	0.0448	0.0629 (17.8)	0.0685 (21.9)	0.0000 (18.9)
CC Sabathia	0.0436	0.0764 (24.9)	0.0652 (16.0)	0.0000 (15.9)
Zack Greinke	0.0377	0.0626 (22.3)	0.0643 (22.8)	0.0000 (23.5)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Lackey	0.0684	0.0498	18.0
2	A.J. Burnett	0.0724	0.0495	17.0
3	Eddie Butler	0.0651	0.1124	16.9
4	James Shields	0.0622	0.0825	16.3
5	Will Harris	0.0794	0.0226	16.1
6	Mat Latos	0.0593	0.0920	15.4
7	Marco Estrada	0.0668	0.0471	15.4
8	Cole Hamels	0.0772	0.0613	15.3
9	Jaime García	0.0739	0.0455	15.3
10	Charlie Morton	0.0545	0.0823	14.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Sonny Gray	0.0672	0.0394	23.5
2	Chris Heston	0.0394	0.0703	22.8
3	Wei-Yin Chen	0.0635	0.0885	19.5
4	Chad Bettis	0.0682	0.1063	18.9
5	Kyle Hendricks	0.0466	0.0714	18.1
6	A.J. Burnett	0.0747	0.0495	17.9
7	Pedro Báez	0.0381	0.1212	17.2
8	Kendall Graveman	0.0924	0.0599	16.5
9	John Lackey	0.0669	0.0498	15.8
10	Ian Kennedy	0.0649	0.0869	15.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Trevor Gott	0.0655	0.0195	22.5
2	Sonny Gray	0.0000	0.0394	21.7
3	Chad Bettis	0.0000	0.1063	20.5
4	Matthew Boyd	0.0655	0.0526	19.8
5	Wei-Yin Chen	0.0000	0.0885	18.2
6	Eddie Butler	0.0000	0.1124	17.3
7	Wade Miley	0.0000	0.0851	16.3
8	Ian Kennedy	0.0000	0.0869	15.2
9	Roberto Osuna	0.0655	0.0756	15.0
10	James Shields	0.0000	0.0825	14.6

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Chris Archer	0.0000	0.0061 (5.9)	0.0069 (6.5)	0.0000 (6.5)
Mike Fiers	0.0144	0.0042 (7.2)	0.0067 (5.3)	0.0000 (5.3)
Danny Salazar	0.0146	0.0029 (8.4)	0.0068 (5.4)	0.0000 (5.4)
Kyle Gibson	0.0000	0.0061 (5.5)	0.0072 (6.5)	0.0000 (6.1)
Shane Greene	0.0289	0.0071 (7.9)	0.0042 (9.0)	0.0000 (8.0)
Jason Hammel	0.0149	0.0066 (5.5)	0.0064 (5.6)	0.0000 (5.3)
Jonathan Broxton	0.0303	0.0062 (6.0)	0.0060 (6.1)	0.0000 (5.9)
Juan Nicasio	0.0311	0.0088 (5.6)	0.0068 (6.1)	0.0000 (6.1)
Aaron Harang	0.0197	0.0077 (8.6)	0.0069 (9.2)	0.0000 (9.2)
Alfredo Simon	0.0166	0.0047 (9.2)	0.0070 (7.3)	0.0000 (7.5)
Ian Kennedy	0.0245	0.0079 (11.4)	0.0068 (12.2)	0.0000 (12.1)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Rubby De La Rosa	0.0096	0.0018	6.9
2	Collin McHugh	0.0103	0.0033	6.6
3	Kendall Graveman	0.0123	0.0000	6.5
4	Mike Bolsinger	0.0159	0.0032	6.2
5	Tom Koehler	0.0123	0.0054	6.1
6	Robbie Ray	0.0051	0.0167	6.0
7	J.A. Happ	0.0096	0.0020	5.9
8	Yovani Gallardo	0.0058	0.0136	5.7
9	Mark Buehrle	0.0018	0.0089	5.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Garrett Richards	0.0071	0.0000	6.7
2	Jake Odorizzi	0.0067	0.0166	6.5
3	Drew Hutchison	0.0090	0.0000	6.4
4	Gio González	0.0069	0.0157	6.2
5	Kyle Kendrick	0.0071	0.0172	6.0
6	Ryan Vogelsong	0.0068	0.0170	5.7
7	Jacob deGrom	0.0068	0.0000	5.6
8	Jeff Samardzija	0.0071	0.0137	5.4
9	Junichi Tazawa	0.0069	0.0291	5.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Garrett Richards	0.0000	0.0000	6.5
2	Jake Odorizzi	0.0000	0.0166	6.4
3	Gio González	0.0000	0.0157	6.3
4	Kyle Kendrick	0.0000	0.0172	6.1
5	Ryan Vogelsong	0.0000	0.0170	5.7
6	Jeff Samardzija	0.0000	0.0137	5.7
7	Jacob deGrom	0.0000	0.0000	5.6
8	Junichi Tazawa	0.0000	0.0291	5.3
9	Taijuan Walker	0.0000	0.0000	5.3

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Andrew Cashner	0.1381	0.0968 (29.4)	0.1093 (20.4)	0.0919 (37.3)
David Price	0.0788	0.0988 (21.9)	0.0969 (19.0)	0.1038 (22.0)
Drew Hutchison	0.1551	0.1145 (23.9)	0.1142 (25.0)	0.1160 (26.1)
Shane Greene	0.1796	0.1090 (24.6)	0.1229 (19.9)	0.1183 (23.0)
Matt Garza	0.1532	0.1121 (24.2)	0.1153 (23.0)	0.1063 (31.3)
Bud Norris	0.1804	0.1093 (25.0)	0.1142 (23.7)	0.1135 (25.3)
Dallas Keuchel	0.0746	0.1110 (37.3)	0.1084 (33.8)	0.1053 (27.7)
Jake Arrieta	0.0598	0.1030 (41.7)	0.1034 (40.9)	0.1006 (35.3)
Zack Greinke	0.0510	0.0883 (35.3)	0.0914 (36.9)	0.0874 (30.5)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Lackey	0.1088	0.0792	30.7
2	Kyle Lohse	0.1014	0.1489	28.5
3	Alfredo Simon	0.0988	0.1366	27.1
4	Jaime García	0.1120	0.0725	22.5
5	Kyle Kendrick	0.1220	0.1622	22.3
6	Carlos Martinez	0.1101	0.0861	21.7
7	Jeremy Guthrie	0.1158	0.1521	21.0
8	Matthew Boyd	0.1124	0.1984	20.5
9	Marco Estrada	0.1157	0.0924	20.3
10	Michael Pineda	0.0893	0.1243	20.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Yovani Gallardo	0.1258	0.0958	26.4
2	John Lackey	0.1045	0.0792	25.7
3	Lance McCullers Jr.	0.1375	0.0942	24.2
4	Jacob deGrom	0.1069	0.0786	23.8
5	Chris Rusin	0.1098	0.1481	20.8
6	Sonny Gray	0.1065	0.0854	20.3
7	Chris Young	0.1243	0.0880	19.8
8	Matthew Boyd	0.1165	0.1984	19.8
9	Carlos Martinez	0.1089	0.0861	19.8
10	Rick Porcello	0.1113	0.1398	18.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lance McCullers Jr.	0.1486	0.0942	28.2
2	Cody Anderson	0.1617	0.0877	26.9
3	Odrisamer Despaigne	0.1009	0.1499	26.9
4	Rick Porcello	0.1036	0.1398	26.8
5	Kyle Lohse	0.1098	0.1489	26.1
6	Aníbal Sánchez	0.0966	0.1348	25.4
7	Jeff Samardzija	0.1086	0.1341	23.4
8	Ian Kennedy	0.1011	0.1332	23.0
9	Marco Estrada	0.1244	0.0924	23.0
10	Jeremy Guthrie	0.1193	0.1521	21.9

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Odrisamer Despaigne	0.1481	0.0939 (26.9)	0.1066 (20.5)	0.0936 (30.5)
Kyle Kendrick	0.1590	0.1127 (26.0)	0.1206 (21.7)	0.1242 (22.7)
David Price	0.0676	0.0902 (24.5)	0.0882 (21.8)	0.0971 (25.1)
Shane Greene	0.1716	0.0972 (25.9)	0.1133 (20.3)	0.1104 (23.3)
Jeremy Guthrie	0.1476	0.1079 (23.1)	0.1136 (19.9)	0.1111 (25.0)
Bud Norris	0.1645	0.1034 (21.1)	0.1056 (20.7)	0.1064 (22.3)
Dallas Keuchel	0.0703	0.1014 (32.9)	0.0978 (28.7)	0.0981 (24.2)
Kyle Lohse	0.1489	0.0931 (33.8)	0.1116 (22.2)	0.1026 (31.6)
Jake Arrieta	0.0517	0.0980 (44.6)	0.0943 (40.5)	0.0946 (36.3)
Zack Greinke	0.0486	0.0828 (32.9)	0.0821 (31.5)	0.0823 (27.3)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alfredo Simon	0.0905	0.1280	26.8
2	John Lackey	0.0992	0.0748	26.3
3	Jeff Samardzija	0.0964	0.1297	25.7
4	Gerrit Cole	0.0975	0.0721	25.2
5	Aníbal Sánchez	0.0900	0.1318	24.3
6	Matt Garza	0.0998	0.1396	23.2
7	Chris Tillman	0.0940	0.1296	22.7
8	Carlos Martinez	0.1042	0.0795	22.4
9	David Buchanan	0.0990	0.1652	21.5
10	Robbie Ray	0.1246	0.0917	20.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Yovani Gallardo	0.1163	0.0883	25.3
2	Shelby Miller	0.1047	0.0802	24.4
3	Lance McCullers Jr.	0.1284	0.0865	23.8
4	Jacob deGrom	0.0978	0.0719	22.4
5	John Lackey	0.0952	0.0748	21.8
6	Gerrit Cole	0.0942	0.0721	21.6
7	Edinson Volquez	0.1132	0.0929	20.6
8	Sonny Gray	0.0965	0.0758	20.4
9	Matthew Boyd	0.1076	0.1905	19.9
10	Drew Hutchison	0.1062	0.1401	19.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aníbal Sánchez	0.0903	0.1318	28.2
2	Matt Garza	0.0997	0.1396	27.4
3	Lance McCullers Jr.	0.1397	0.0865	27.0
4	Jeff Samardzija	0.1013	0.1297	26.9
5	Cody Anderson	0.1506	0.0849	23.5
6	Rick Porcello	0.0972	0.1275	23.3
7	Matthew Boyd	0.1041	0.1905	22.1
8	Drew Hutchison	0.1084	0.1401	21.8
9	James Shields	0.0796	0.1023	20.6
10	Mat Latos	0.0894	0.1296	20.4

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Colby Lewis	0.5152	0.2222 (201.5)	0.3331 (163.1)	0.3333 (157.8)
Collin McHugh	0.5938	0.2162 (273.7)	0.3623 (205.1)	0.3667 (196.3)
Nathan Eovaldi	0.5185	0.1707 (194.4)	0.3348 (128.6)	0.2857 (157.6)
Dallas Keuchel	0.6061	0.2250 (293.5)	0.3816 (211.2)	0.3929 (195.5)
Kyle Lohse	0.1351	0.2973 (147.0)	0.3327 (126.5)	0.3462 (139.4)
Michael Wacha	0.5667	0.1765 (252.4)	0.3717 (154.2)	0.3200 (189.1)
Jake Arrieta	0.6667	0.2222 (335.4)	0.3825 (253.6)	0.3103 (311.2)
Zack Greinke	0.5938	0.3684 (140.3)	0.4181 (154.3)	0.4333 (136.4)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Carlos Martinez	0.0682	0.4516	245.0
2	Rubby De La Rosa	0.1471	0.4375	187.3
3	Carlos Carrasco	0.1538	0.4667	185.3
4	Gerrit Cole	0.3143	0.5938	183.5
5	Danny Salazar	0.1714	0.4667	178.9
6	Félix Hernández	0.3077	0.5806	176.8
7	Garrett Richards	0.2143	0.4688	169.1
8	Chris Heston	0.1111	0.3871	161.9
9	David Price	0.3333	0.5625	151.2
10	Matt Harvey	0.1905	0.4483	150.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Marco Estrada	0.0852	0.3824	220.8
2	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.1330	0.3750	197.3
3	Chris Heston	0.1384	0.3871	191.0
4	Gerrit Cole	0.3849	0.5938	179.9
5	Josh Tomlin	0.0816	0.7000	157.1
6	Chad Bettis	0.0951	0.4000	156.7
7	Madison Bumgarner	0.4145	0.5625	135.0
8	Corey Kluber	0.4375	0.2813	131.9
9	Chris Rusin	0.0478	0.2500	124.5
10	Chris Young	0.1006	0.3235	115.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Carlos Carrasco	0.1714	0.4667	216.6
2	Johnny Cueto	0.5556	0.3438	182.2
3	Corey Kluber	0.4839	0.2813	178.3
4	Tanner Roark	0.4643	0.1000	169.5
5	Shelby Miller	0.3667	0.1818	157.7
6	Rubby De La Rosa	0.2759	0.4375	131.9
7	Chad Bettis	0.1389	0.4000	131.8
8	Tyson Ross	0.4643	0.3030	131.5
9	CC Sabathia	0.3889	0.2069	131.1
10	Andrew Cashner	0.3478	0.1935	122.9

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Andrew Cashner	0.5161	0.2059 (201.6)	0.3733 (126.9)	0.3478 (146.5)
Corey Kluber	0.5000	0.1951 (217.4)	0.3005 (190.1)	0.2581 (226.7)
Rick Porcello	0.5357	0.2500 (166.7)	0.3160 (173.0)	0.3226 (167.4)
Jesse Chavez	0.5000	0.1707 (181.2)	0.1404 (251.7)	0.1818 (223.2)
Iván Nova	0.6471	0.1818 (167.5)	0.3609 (124.4)	0.3500 (128.4)
Nathan Eovaldi	0.1111	0.2927 (162.3)	0.3672 (162.3)	0.3214 (132.2)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Shelby Miller	0.2143	0.5152	207.5
2	Anthony DeSclafani	0.1250	0.4194	184.3
3	Matt Garza	0.2222	0.5385	171.0
4	Max Scherzer	0.1282	0.3636	158.1
5	Eddie Butler	0.1429	0.6250	156.4
6	Alfredo Simon	0.1429	0.3871	151.4
7	Robbie Ray	0.1852	0.5217	151.0
8	Garrett Richards	0.1429	0.3750	149.3
9	Kendall Graveman	0.0769	0.4286	146.6
10	Chris Heston	0.1111	0.3548	137.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Rusin	0.0494	0.4167	227.1
2	Robbie Ray	0.1296	0.5217	221.9
3	Zack Greinke	0.3064	0.0938	166.6
4	Chris Heston	0.1622	0.3548	154.9
5	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.1403	0.3125	148.1
6	Kyle Lobstein	0.1681	0.6154	129.4
7	Mike Pelfrey	0.2021	0.3667	128.2
8	Josh Collmenter	0.4079	0.1364	128.0
9	Marco Estrada	0.0744	0.2353	127.6
10	James Shields	0.3729	0.2121	125.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Shelby Miller	0.3000	0.5152	197.0
2	Carlos Carrasco	0.1714	0.4000	177.0
3	Matt Garza	0.2917	0.5385	173.7
4	Max Scherzer	0.1935	0.3636	165.5
5	Alex Wood	0.2000	0.3750	151.4
6	Garrett Richards	0.2143	0.3750	151.1
7	Colby Lewis	0.4444	0.2727	135.8
8	Zack Greinke	0.2667	0.0938	134.0
9	Chris Sale	0.2143	0.3548	132.0
10	Drew Hutchison	0.3704	0.1667	126.0

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Shawn Tolleson	0.4795	0.0244 (142.1)	0.0462 (128.8)	0.0000 (134.1)
Brad Boxberger	0.5942	0.0488 (153.7)	0.1292 (125.8)	0.0000 (153.1)
Brad Ziegler	0.4545	0.0577 (110.1)	0.0431 (108.0)	0.0000 (111.8)
Francisco Rodríguez	0.6333	0.3265 (71.0)	0.3477 (61.5)	0.0000 (130.4)
AJ Ramos	0.4507	0.0208 (125.1)	0.0182 (119.5)	0.0000 (116.7)
Jeurys Familia	0.5658	0.0652 (160.9)	0.1036 (142.1)	0.0000 (165.2)
Andrew Miller	0.6000	0.0204 (147.9)	0.1831 (102.3)	0.0000 (140.4)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Trevor Rosenthal	0.2830	0.7059	127.6
2	Mark Melancon	0.2692	0.6538	119.1
3	Luke Gregerson	0.0556	0.4844	107.7
4	Cody Allen	0.1636	0.4857	98.4
5	Drew Storen	0.1020	0.5000	95.7
6	Santiago Casilla	0.2045	0.5672	93.8
7	David Robertson	0.2653	0.5667	80.8
8	Roberto Osuna	0.0294	0.2941	77.6
9	Addison Reed	0.4167	0.0727	77.6
10	Steve Cishek	0.4000	0.0678	75.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joaquín Benoit	0.5246	0.0299	125.9
2	Steve Cishek	0.5138	0.0678	108.6
3	Addison Reed	0.4954	0.0727	102.1
4	John Axford	0.0400	0.4167	93.9
5	Jason Grilli	0.0369	0.6667	88.0
6	Dellin Betances	0.3677	0.1216	82.0
7	Roberto Osuna	0.0000	0.2941	79.4
8	Fernando Rodney	0.5169	0.2353	78.3
9	Brett Cecil	0.4000	0.0794	68.8
10	Neftalí Feliz	0.5123	0.2083	64.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Trevor Rosenthal	0.0000	0.7059	194.1
2	Mark Melancon	0.0000	0.6538	183.0
3	Huston Street	0.0000	0.6452	157.0
4	Craig Kimbrel	0.0000	0.6393	145.8
5	Zack Britton	0.0000	0.5625	134.9
6	David Robertson	0.0000	0.5667	134.3
7	Aroldis Chapman	0.0000	0.5077	133.0
8	Santiago Casilla	0.0000	0.5672	131.2
9	Cody Allen	0.0000	0.4857	130.5
10	Kenley Jansen	0.0000	0.6667	127.4

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Joe Smith	0.4571	0.2545 (66.0)	0.2178 (66.3)	0.0000 (109.7)
Dellin Betances	0.3784	0.2273 (63.7)	0.1488 (78.0)	0.0000 (108.2)
Tony Watson	0.5325	0.3214 (73.8)	0.2580 (82.0)	0.0000 (140.7)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jim Johnson	0.0444	0.3472	100.0
2	Carlos Martinez	0.2045	0.0323	99.3
3	Sergio Romo	0.1458	0.4857	87.5
4	Daniel Hudson	0.1053	0.3281	76.5
5	Keone Kela	0.0524	0.3235	75.8
6	Sam Dyson	0.0769	0.2800	75.3
7	Drew Pomeranz	0.0667	0.2264	71.6
8	Ryan Madson	0.0524	0.2941	70.1
9	Jeremy Jeffress	0.1154	0.3194	69.8
10	Zach Duke	0.1395	0.3662	68.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Marco Estrada	0.2567	0.0000	182.1
2	Aaron Sanchez	0.0114	0.2439	90.4
3	Joaquín Benoit	0.0704	0.4179	89.7
4	Keone Kela	0.0000	0.3235	80.0
5	Alex Colomé	0.0225	0.1860	77.3
6	Drew Pomeranz	0.0189	0.2264	76.0
7	Trevor May	0.0000	0.1458	74.4
8	Justin De Fratus	0.2165	0.0164	70.5
9	Jerome Williams	0.0000	0.1212	70.1
10	Hunter Strickland	0.0106	0.3636	68.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Sergio Romo	0.0000	0.4857	99.7
2	Joaquín Benoit	0.0000	0.4179	92.8
3	Kevin Siegrist	0.0000	0.3457	91.5
4	Jim Johnson	0.0000	0.3472	85.8
5	Pedro Strop	0.0000	0.3684	85.3
6	Pat Neshek	0.0000	0.4242	82.9
7	Justin Wilson	0.0000	0.3919	82.8
8	Zach Duke	0.0000	0.3662	80.0
9	Daniel Hudson	0.0000	0.3281	80.0
10	Kevin Jepsen	0.0000	0.3200	76.3

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Kyle Kendrick	6.3232	4.3840 (1057.9)	4.7756 (855.3)	4.9880 (936.1)
David Price	2.4508	3.2938 (977.1)	3.2330 (861.4)	3.6735 (949.8)
Jeremy Guthrie	5.9461	4.1461 (1024.3)	4.4238 (886.1)	4.3916 (1133.8)
Matt Garza	5.6300	3.7548 (1077.5)	4.0978 (895.4)	3.8217 (1306.3)
Bud Norris	6.7229	3.9598 (944.7)	4.0549 (935.0)	4.2109 (1004.7)
Dallas Keuchel	2.4828	3.8364 (1467.6)	3.7253 (1303.1)	3.8028 (1063.2)
Kyle Lohse	5.8490	3.4516 (1423.1)	4.3017 (904.1)	3.9130 (1389.2)
Jake Arrieta	1.7686	3.6200 (1834.6)	3.5710 (1731.5)	3.6747 (1525.2)
Zack Greinke	1.6572	3.0457 (1387.5)	3.0256 (1312.0)	3.0638 (1056.8)

Individual Misses for ERA

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alfredo Simon	3.4034	5.0535	1142.1
2	John Lackey	3.7306	2.7661	1094.8
3	Odrisamer Despaigne	3.5570	5.8011	1086.7
4	Shane Greene	3.7576	6.8845	1070.3
5	Gerrit Cole	3.6225	2.5962	1068.0
6	David Buchanan	3.7934	6.9911	1032.1
7	Jeff Samardzija	3.5887	4.9626	1016.1
8	Carlos Martinez	4.0076	3.0056	950.9
9	Ross Detwiler	3.8272	7.2514	912.1
10	Aníbal Sánchez	3.3500	4.9873	910.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lance McCullers Jr.	5.2569	3.2228	1155.4
2	Shelby Miller	4.0562	3.0244	1048.9
3	Yovani Gallardo	4.5238	3.4177	1026.1
4	Jacob deGrom	3.6968	2.5445	1006.4
5	Gerrit Cole	3.5660	2.5962	963.2
6	Sonny Gray	3.6727	2.7260	942.8
7	Edinson Volquez	4.4381	3.5491	915.4
8	Cory Mazzoni	3.8214	20.7692	888.3
9	John Lackey	3.5680	2.7661	886.8
10	Drew Hutchison	4.0565	5.5676	878.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lance McCullers Jr.	6.0772	3.2228	1404.7
2	Odrisamer Despaigne	3.6516	5.8011	1259.5
3	Cody Anderson	6.3391	3.0547	1143.0
4	Aníbal Sánchez	3.4342	4.9873	1126.0
5	Jeff Samardzija	3.8969	4.9626	1109.0
6	Drew Hutchison	4.2234	5.5676	994.2
7	Rick Porcello	3.7235	4.9186	993.6
8	Andrew Cashner	3.2739	4.3375	978.1
9	Shane Greene	4.4776	6.8845	954.8
10	James Shields	2.9897	3.9143	926.7

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player	Actual	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
David Buchanan	1.8482	1.2893 (185.7)	1.3980 (147.4)	1.3973 (171.5)
Jacob deGrom	0.9791	1.2073 (193.8)	1.2286 (210.1)	1.2163 (149.9)
Matt Garza	1.5673	1.2195 (211.8)	1.2893 (165.0)	1.2314 (248.8)
Dallas Keuchel	1.0172	1.3134 (296.9)	1.3078 (292.2)	1.2728 (198.5)
Jake Arrieta	0.8646	1.1650 (287.3)	1.2290 (343.3)	1.2767 (325.8)
Eric O'Flaherty	2.1667	1.1989 (149.1)	1.3086 (131.6)	1.2378 (153.7)
Ross Detwiler	2.0229	1.3443 (186.8)	1.4486 (156.7)	1.3834 (195.0)
Zack Greinke	0.8443	1.1788 (307.1)	1.1199 (257.8)	1.1223 (202.6)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Max Scherzer	1.1496	0.9184	234.7
2	Andrew Cashner	1.1810	1.4404	184.7
3	Erasmo Ramírez	1.3772	1.1327	182.7
4	Noah Syndergaard	1.3066	1.0467	174.7
5	Kyle Lohse	1.1734	1.4639	173.3
6	Colby Lewis	1.4004	1.2362	167.1
7	Michael Lorenzen	1.3066	1.6588	166.1
8	Danny Salazar	1.3079	1.1297	157.4
9	Alfredo Simon	1.2185	1.4385	156.0
10	Eddie Butler	1.3714	1.8151	153.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lance McCullers Jr.	1.6007	1.1857	231.5
2	Sonny Gray	1.2978	1.0817	204.7
3	Chris Rusin	1.2829	1.6025	171.9
4	Max Scherzer	1.0750	0.9184	168.0
5	Roberto Osuna	1.4947	0.9187	164.3
6	Chris Archer	1.2947	1.1368	163.3
7	Erasmo Ramírez	1.3344	1.1327	154.5
8	Chris Young	1.3422	1.0865	143.0
9	Marco Estrada	1.2080	1.0442	140.7
10	Cody Anderson	1.4605	1.1058	140.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lance McCullers Jr.	1.7685	1.1857	283.5
2	Andrew Cashner	1.1878	1.4404	233.4
3	James Shields	1.1285	1.3344	209.5
4	Kyle Lohse	1.2064	1.4639	196.3
5	Julio Teheran	1.1324	1.3056	177.8
6	Cody Anderson	1.6174	1.1058	173.0
7	Jeremy Guthrie	1.3373	1.5506	166.6
8	Gio González	1.2449	1.4231	163.7
9	Raisel Iglesias	1.5920	1.1434	162.4
10	Drew Hutchison	1.2822	1.4834	158.6