2014 Projection Evaluation

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Marco Scutaro 13
513
(500.0)
526
(513.0)
471
(458.3)
545
(532.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Jeter 1 634 633.0
2 Torii Hunter 1 586 585.0
3 Adam LaRoche 1 586 585.0
4 Yangervis Solarte 1 535 534.0
5 Adam Dunn 1 511 510.0
6 J.D. Martinez 1 480 479.0
7 Prince Fielder 655 178 477.0
8 Shane Victorino 581 133 448.0
9 Matt Wieters 552 112 440.0
10 Chris Coghlan 1 432 431.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 1 622 621.0
2 Yangervis Solarte 1 535 534.0
3 Casey McGehee 233 691 458.0
4 Ender Inciarte 1 447 446.0
5 Prince Fielder 623 178 445.0
6 Matt Wieters 552 112 440.0
7 Danny Santana 1 430 429.0
8 Rougned Odor 1 417 416.0
9 Pete Kozma 440 26 414.0
10 Billy Hamilton 217 611 394.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yangervis Solarte 1 535 534.0
2 Charlie Blackmon 177 648 470.9
3 Prince Fielder 634 178 456.4
4 Ender Inciarte 1 447 446.0
5 Rafael Furcal 475 37 437.9
6 Chris Coghlan 1 432 431.0
7 Rougned Odor 1 417 416.0
8 Shane Victorino 547 133 414.1
9 J.D. Martinez 69 480 410.8
10 Jose Tabata 582 186 395.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Guerrero 665 13 652.0
2 Lane Adams 588 3 585.0
3 Matt Hague 585 2 583.0
4 Gary Brown 573 7 566.0
5 Johnny Giavotella 601 41 560.0
6 Joey Butler 557 6 551.0
7 Carlos Triunfel 564 16 548.0
8 Jemile Weeks 592 45 547.0
9 Maikel Franco 602 58 544.0
10 Jesús Aguilar 580 38 542.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Corey Dickerson 0.4024
0.3400
(36.4)
0.3233
(43.2)
0.3440
(30.8)
0.3424
(31.6)
Jose Altuve 0.3654
0.3328
(32.8)
0.3092
(47.8)
0.3133
(41.1)
0.3108
(42.9)
Devin Mesoraco 0.3896
0.3166
(38.2)
0.2988
(44.9)
0.3109
(37.3)
0.3244
(31.4)
Michael Brantley 0.3904
0.3355
(46.4)
0.3221
(53.9)
0.3180
(53.0)
0.3195
(52.0)
Victor Martinez 0.4235
0.3483
(57.0)
0.3480
(55.7)
0.3415
(56.4)
0.3383
(58.5)
Josh Harrison 0.3645
0.3230
(30.4)
0.2937
(45.2)
0.3023
(37.5)
0.3032
(37.1)
Allen Craig 0.2692
0.3715
(44.7)
0.3642
(42.2)
0.3578
(41.7)
0.3483
(36.9)
Steve Pearce 0.4047
0.3249
(35.8)
0.3155
(38.6)
0.3299
(31.0)
0.3285
(31.5)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Danny Santana 0.2440 0.3599 55.7
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.3505 0.4000 38.9
3 Justin Morneau 0.3213 0.3751 37.2
4 Adam LaRoche 0.3153 0.3615 35.1
5 Drew Stubbs 0.2893 0.3573 34.6
6 Chris Davis 0.3892 0.3141 32.2
7 Chris Coghlan 0.2920 0.3521 31.9
8 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.3315 0.2433 31.5
9 Evan Longoria 0.3793 0.3213 30.9
10 Russell Martin 0.3193 0.3719 30.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.3153 0.4179 70.9
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.3295 0.4000 50.5
3 J.D. Martinez 0.3049 0.3945 48.5
4 Anthony Rendon 0.3170 0.3607 37.6
5 Justin Morneau 0.3220 0.3751 35.5
6 Chris Coghlan 0.2893 0.3521 32.1
7 Drew Stubbs 0.2936 0.3573 31.8
8 Justin Turner 0.3100 0.3951 31.1
9 Brian Dozier 0.3062 0.3386 30.9
10 Giancarlo Stanton 0.3796 0.4139 29.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Martinez 0.3055 0.3945 45.6
2 Danny Santana 0.2807 0.3599 36.6
3 Justin Turner 0.2935 0.3951 34.7
4 Russell Martin 0.3072 0.3719 32.5
5 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.3253 0.2433 32.2
6 Carlos Gómez 0.3232 0.3670 32.1
7 Jay Bruce 0.3547 0.2909 31.5
8 Brian Dozier 0.3001 0.3386 31.5
9 David Wright 0.3704 0.3117 30.9
10 Lucas Duda 0.3217 0.3655 29.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Martinez 0.3042 0.3945 46.2
2 Danny Santana 0.2740 0.3599 39.5
3 Domonic Brown 0.3615 0.2830 37.1
4 Chris Davis 0.3844 0.3141 33.7
5 Anthony Rizzo 0.3526 0.4000 32.9
6 Jay Bruce 0.3565 0.2909 32.5
7 Nate Schierholtz 0.3346 0.2459 31.7
8 Brian Dozier 0.3008 0.3386 31.0
9 Justin Turner 0.3060 0.3951 30.7
10 José Abreu 0.3778 0.4179 28.7

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mike Zunino 0.3319
0.2538
(36.4)
0.2215
(48.6)
0.2437
(35.4)
0.2525
(36.2)
Mike Trout 0.2610
0.2067
(37.2)
0.2019
(35.8)
0.1867
(42.6)
0.1863
(50.3)
Jose Altuve 0.0750
0.1415
(48.2)
0.1345
(48.0)
0.1140
(37.4)
0.1250
(37.8)
Casey McGehee 0.1476
0.2257
(55.1)
0.1888
(34.3)
0.1917
(40.0)
0.2209
(53.0)
Ian Desmond 0.2824
0.2211
(38.7)
0.2131
(39.5)
0.2115
(37.0)
0.2163
(40.7)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Dunn 0.1985 0.3112 56.7
2 Justin Morneau 0.1802 0.1091 40.0
3 Derek Jeter 0.1985 0.1372 39.9
4 Curtis Granderson 0.2727 0.2156 38.4
5 Victor Martinez 0.1210 0.0655 36.6
6 Marlon Byrd 0.2320 0.2904 36.2
7 José Abreu 0.2663 0.2106 35.6
8 Jason Heyward 0.2043 0.1510 35.6
9 Anthony Rendon 0.1990 0.1523 33.0
10 Michael Brantley 0.1299 0.0828 32.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jon Singleton 0.1985 0.3702 59.1
2 Yangervis Solarte 0.1985 0.1084 52.7
3 Javier Báez 0.1985 0.4148 47.6
4 Marlon Byrd 0.2130 0.2904 44.0
5 Mike Olt 0.2115 0.3876 43.3
6 George Springer 0.1985 0.3304 42.6
7 Justin Morneau 0.1761 0.1091 41.4
8 Ender Inciarte 0.1985 0.1186 39.5
9 Marcell Ozuna 0.1966 0.2680 38.5
10 Jason Heyward 0.2012 0.1510 38.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Curtis Granderson 0.2760 0.2156 48.5
2 Justin Morneau 0.1720 0.1091 42.2
3 Seth Smith 0.2251 0.1670 37.5
4 Miguel Montero 0.2181 0.1732 32.9
5 Torii Hunter 0.1937 0.1519 32.6
6 Marcell Ozuna 0.2011 0.2680 32.5
7 Robinson Canó 0.1368 0.1023 32.2
8 Javier Báez 0.2609 0.4148 32.1
9 Jon Singleton 0.2678 0.3702 32.0
10 Adam LaRoche 0.2241 0.1843 31.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marlon Byrd 0.1947 0.2904 58.8
2 Jason Heyward 0.2175 0.1510 45.3
3 Derek Norris 0.2882 0.1946 42.9
4 Travis d'Arnaud 0.2411 0.1520 38.9
5 Dexter Fowler 0.2833 0.2139 36.8
6 Christian Yelich 0.2585 0.2076 35.8
7 Ike Davis 0.2629 0.1827 35.7
8 Matt Adams 0.2618 0.2025 35.3
9 Nick Castellanos 0.1820 0.2418 32.7
10 Wilin Rosario 0.2447 0.1707 31.7

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Brian Dozier 0.1259
0.0762
(39.3)
0.0725
(40.1)
0.0724
(39.5)
0.0696
(39.9)
Adrian Beltré 0.0928
0.0648
(20.8)
0.0634
(20.1)
0.0638
(19.3)
0.0585
(21.2)
Victor Martinez 0.1092
0.0694
(29.2)
0.0803
(20.7)
0.0781
(21.5)
0.0736
(22.9)
Adam LaRoche 0.1399
0.0777
(39.9)
0.1091
(20.0)
0.1084
(19.9)
0.1068
(19.5)
Seth Smith 0.1324
0.0915
(24.4)
0.0944
(21.6)
0.0960
(20.2)
0.0924
(21.0)
Ian Kinsler 0.0399
0.0968
(37.0)
0.0922
(35.5)
0.0908
(35.2)
0.0906
(36.7)
Miguel Cabrera 0.0876
0.1322
(26.6)
0.1216
(21.0)
0.1306
(27.8)
0.1250
(25.5)
David Wright 0.0717
0.1154
(22.2)
0.1102
(20.6)
0.1138
(23.3)
0.1091
(21.8)
Jonathan Lucroy 0.1008
0.0714
(23.0)
0.0720
(21.0)
0.0727
(20.0)
0.0711
(19.5)
Matt Carpenter 0.1340
0.1042
(25.2)
0.0980
(27.9)
0.1057
(21.7)
0.1008
(23.7)
Rubén Tejada 0.1193
0.0671
(24.3)
0.0699
(22.1)
0.0669
(23.0)
0.0612
(24.4)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Dunn 0.0777 0.1389 34.3
2 Josh Willingham 0.0777 0.1456 26.8
3 José Abreu 0.1270 0.0820 24.4
4 Evan Longoria 0.1194 0.0814 22.5
5 Carlos Santana 0.1431 0.1712 22.4
6 Jonathan Schoop 0.0769 0.0270 21.2
7 Jason Castro 0.1124 0.0664 20.6
8 Freddie Freeman 0.1050 0.1271 19.8
9 Brian McCann 0.1010 0.0595 19.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Freddie Freeman 0.0966 0.1271 24.0
2 Carlos Santana 0.1385 0.1712 23.8
3 Jonathan Schoop 0.0791 0.0270 23.4
4 Jon Singleton 0.0777 0.1381 23.1
5 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1148 0.1473 22.9
6 Robbie Grossman 0.0795 0.1303 22.8
7 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.0813 0.1264 21.1
8 Coco Crisp 0.0882 0.1231 20.5
9 Mike Zunino 0.0814 0.0357 20.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yangervis Solarte 0.0548 0.0991 25.0
2 Brian McCann 0.1012 0.0595 21.1
3 Billy Butler 0.1053 0.0680 21.0
4 Ben Revere 0.0554 0.0208 20.2
5 Dustin Ackley 0.0977 0.0590 19.7
6 Mike Napoli 0.1191 0.1560 19.6
7 Aramis Ramirez 0.0788 0.0395 19.6
8 Evan Longoria 0.1117 0.0814 19.5
9 Coco Crisp 0.0905 0.1231 18.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yangervis Solarte 0.0494 0.0991 26.7
2 Brian McCann 0.1034 0.0595 23.5
3 Evan Longoria 0.1122 0.0814 21.4
4 Jason Castro 0.1076 0.0664 21.0
5 Billy Butler 0.1026 0.0680 20.8
6 Dustin Ackley 0.0972 0.0590 20.6
7 John Jaso 0.1364 0.0814 18.8
8 Khris Davis 0.0919 0.0583 18.4
9 Coco Crisp 0.0893 0.1231 18.2

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mike Zunino 0.0357
0.0000
(12.8)
0.0130
(10.5)
0.0110
(11.5)
0.0163
(9.1)
Matt Holliday 0.0255
0.0000
(11.1)
0.0143
(7.1)
0.0130
(7.9)
0.0139
(7.5)
Devin Mesoraco 0.0273
0.0000
(8.1)
0.0025
(10.7)
0.0060
(9.1)
0.0051
(9.6)
Anthony Rizzo 0.0244
0.0000
(9.6)
0.0101
(8.5)
0.0100
(8.4)
0.0107
(8.2)
Russell Martin 0.0326
0.0000
(11.0)
0.0141
(8.3)
0.0130
(8.7)
0.0153
(7.8)
Charlie Blackmon 0.0201
0.0000
(7.3)
0.0117
(5.1)
0.0100
(6.1)
0.0101
(6.3)
Jon Jay 0.0427
0.0000
(15.9)
0.0213
(9.8)
0.0180
(11.3)
0.0211
(10.0)
Derek Dietrich 0.0546
0.0000
(8.4)
0.0185
(6.5)
0.0170
(6.8)
0.0247
(5.4)
Carlos Gómez 0.0295
0.0000
(13.3)
0.0148
(9.1)
0.0130
(10.2)
0.0163
(8.3)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Starling Marte 0.0000 0.0312 12.2
2 Danny Espinosa 0.0000 0.0330 8.8
3 Adam LaRoche 0.0092 0.0034 8.5
4 Brandon Guyer 0.0000 0.0374 8.4
5 Aramis Ramirez 0.0000 0.0245 8.3
6 Carlos Ruiz 0.0000 0.0270 8.1
7 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0000 0.0227 7.4
8 Chase Utley 0.0000 0.0196 7.2
9 Daniel Nava 0.0000 0.0245 6.4
10 Yasiel Puig 0.0000 0.0187 6.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brandon Guyer 0.0050 0.0374 9.4
2 Yan Gomes 0.0186 0.0058 6.9
3 Jason Castro 0.0042 0.0176 6.6
4 Grady Sizemore 0.0152 0.0000 6.0
5 Leonys Martin 0.0128 0.0034 5.8
6 George Springer 0.0092 0.0261 5.6
7 Robinson Chirinos 0.0047 0.0207 5.2
8 Chris Iannetta 0.0071 0.0214 5.1
9 J.P. Arencibia 0.0082 0.0315 5.1
10 Billy Hamilton 0.0092 0.0016 5.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brandon Guyer 0.0160 0.0374 6.1
2 Jason Castro 0.0060 0.0176 5.6
3 George Springer 0.0100 0.0261 5.3
4 Danny Espinosa 0.0180 0.0330 5.2
5 Matt Kemp 0.0080 0.0000 5.2
6 J.P. Arencibia 0.0080 0.0315 5.1
7 Adam Eaton 0.0180 0.0093 5.0
8 Alex Gordon 0.0090 0.0171 4.8
9 Leonys Martin 0.0110 0.0034 4.8
10 Chris Iannetta 0.0080 0.0214 4.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Eaton 0.0267 0.0093 9.6
2 Grady Sizemore 0.0178 0.0000 6.9
3 Marlon Byrd 0.0228 0.0126 6.8
4 Jason Castro 0.0046 0.0176 6.5
5 Yan Gomes 0.0172 0.0058 6.1
6 Leonys Martin 0.0133 0.0034 6.0
7 J.P. Arencibia 0.0064 0.0315 5.5
8 George Springer 0.0099 0.0261 5.5
9 Josh Harrison 0.0162 0.0073 5.1
10 Martín Prado 0.0030 0.0122 5.1

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Corey Dickerson 0.0708
0.0395
(18.1)
0.0351
(19.1)
0.0416
(15.3)
0.0446
(14.3)
Casey McGehee 0.0077
0.0460
(21.9)
0.0353
(16.1)
0.0328
(15.4)
0.0348
(16.1)
Mike Trout 0.0841
0.0644
(18.6)
0.0583
(21.2)
0.0578
(20.5)
0.0614
(18.6)
Devin Mesoraco 0.0880
0.0400
(24.0)
0.0372
(24.3)
0.0424
(21.3)
0.0461
(20.1)
Victor Martinez 0.0610
0.0330
(22.2)
0.0261
(25.1)
0.0284
(22.6)
0.0280
(23.6)
Miguel Cabrera 0.0495
0.0833
(18.6)
0.0769
(15.9)
0.0777
(17.4)
0.0814
(19.2)
Steve Pearce 0.0798
0.0450
(15.9)
0.0352
(18.7)
0.0419
(15.6)
0.0470
(14.0)
Lucas Duda 0.0783
0.0588
(15.6)
0.0496
(19.6)
0.0496
(18.8)
0.0557
(15.7)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Dunn 0.0339 0.0803 27.1
2 Adam LaRoche 0.0339 0.0660 22.7
3 Chris Carter 0.0828 0.1125 20.7
4 Matt Adams 0.0780 0.0357 20.1
5 Evan Longoria 0.0769 0.0439 18.5
6 Jason Heyward 0.0544 0.0230 16.1
7 George Springer 0.0694 0.1093 16.0
8 Brett Gardner 0.0203 0.0386 15.9
9 Anthony Rizzo 0.0590 0.0777 15.6
10 Josh Willingham 0.0339 0.0700 15.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.0339 0.0839 33.8
2 George Springer 0.0339 0.1093 27.5
3 Marcell Ozuna 0.0230 0.0567 23.2
4 Anthony Rizzo 0.0456 0.0777 22.4
5 Mike Zunino 0.0381 0.0775 20.8
6 Chris Carter 0.0819 0.1125 19.9
7 J.D. Martinez 0.0352 0.0717 19.5
8 Curtis Granderson 0.0792 0.0467 18.4
9 Mike Olt 0.0347 0.0923 16.0
10 Jon Singleton 0.0339 0.0734 15.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Heyward 0.0572 0.0230 20.4
2 J.D. Martinez 0.0351 0.0717 18.9
3 Mike Zunino 0.0457 0.0775 16.4
4 Brian Dozier 0.0275 0.0479 16.4
5 George Springer 0.0655 0.1093 16.1
6 Marlon Byrd 0.0388 0.0611 16.0
7 Chris Carter 0.0875 0.1125 15.9
8 David Wright 0.0475 0.0187 15.2
9 Marcell Ozuna 0.0347 0.0567 15.2
10 Evan Longoria 0.0682 0.0439 15.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Martinez 0.0312 0.0717 21.2
2 Jason Heyward 0.0556 0.0230 18.7
3 Brian Dozier 0.0261 0.0479 18.1
4 Mike Zunino 0.0433 0.0775 18.0
5 Domonic Brown 0.0645 0.0259 17.8
6 Marlon Byrd 0.0382 0.0611 17.0
7 David Wright 0.0500 0.0187 16.1
8 Brett Gardner 0.0183 0.0386 15.3
9 Matt Adams 0.0656 0.0357 14.7
10 Nelson Cruz 0.0660 0.0837 14.5

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
David Ortiz 0.2563
0.3194
(32.1)
0.3144
(34.2)
0.3007
(29.7)
0.3045
(29.4)
Justin Turner 0.4044
0.3268
(28.1)
0.3008
(33.8)
0.2871
(36.2)
0.2950
(35.0)
Danny Santana 0.4026
0.3043
(46.5)
0.2985
(45.3)
0.3011
(41.5)
0.3013
(43.2)
Juan Uribe 0.3675
0.2971
(32.4)
0.2896
(32.0)
0.2734
(36.0)
0.2780
(35.9)
Tyler Flowers 0.3532
0.2903
(32.1)
0.2762
(34.6)
0.2660
(36.3)
0.2848
(29.9)
Russell Martin 0.3333
0.2656
(35.6)
0.2570
(35.7)
0.2611
(30.9)
0.2667
(30.3)
Chris Davis 0.2412
0.3249
(38.8)
0.3313
(46.6)
0.3245
(46.3)
0.3260
(44.9)
J.D. Martinez 0.3893
0.3000
(47.5)
0.3029
(42.1)
0.3012
(39.9)
0.3129
(36.3)
Lorenzo Cain 0.3795
0.3151
(37.2)
0.3065
(37.3)
0.3157
(29.5)
0.3112
(33.9)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Stubbs 0.3147 0.4008 40.6
2 Allen Craig 0.3419 0.2661 33.4
3 Chris Coghlan 0.2660 0.3333 33.3
4 Yasiel Puig 0.3137 0.3539 32.0
5 Casey McGehee 0.2982 0.3346 31.9
6 Giancarlo Stanton 0.3144 0.3533 31.0
7 Mike Moustakas 0.2906 0.2198 30.5
8 Marcell Ozuna 0.2977 0.3368 29.9
9 Michael Choice 0.3227 0.2079 29.4
10 Carlos Santana 0.3012 0.2494 27.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Casey McGehee 0.2561 0.3346 55.2
2 Josh Harrison 0.2744 0.3512 42.9
3 Drew Stubbs 0.3098 0.4008 39.2
4 Allen Craig 0.3422 0.2661 37.8
5 José Abreu 0.2985 0.3562 36.7
6 Adam Eaton 0.2913 0.3571 36.1
7 Jose Altuve 0.3108 0.3597 35.5
8 Stephen Drew 0.3023 0.1937 32.2
9 Brock Holt 0.2818 0.3437 31.1
10 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2977 0.3439 30.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.2796 0.3562 44.6
2 Jose Altuve 0.3044 0.3597 35.6
3 Casey McGehee 0.2783 0.3346 35.5
4 Allen Craig 0.3293 0.2661 34.4
5 Michael Choice 0.3239 0.2079 33.9
6 Mike Moustakas 0.2766 0.2198 30.9
7 Josh Harrison 0.2926 0.3512 29.5
8 Stephen Drew 0.2866 0.1937 29.4
9 Giancarlo Stanton 0.3028 0.3533 29.0
10 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2947 0.3439 28.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.2877 0.3562 42.1
2 Josh Harrison 0.2845 0.3512 36.3
3 Jon Singleton 0.3293 0.2378 33.4
4 Drew Stubbs 0.3235 0.4008 32.5
5 Stephen Drew 0.2983 0.1937 31.6
6 Jose Altuve 0.3145 0.3597 31.4
7 Michael Choice 0.3178 0.2079 31.0
8 Mike Moustakas 0.2805 0.2198 30.7
9 Mark Reynolds 0.2868 0.2176 30.3
10 Adam Eaton 0.3015 0.3571 29.5

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Casey McGehee 0.2766
0.2349
(36.6)
0.1890
(60.0)
0.2098
(42.9)
0.2222
(35.7)
Giancarlo Stanton 0.2575
0.2241
(28.5)
0.2168
(25.5)
0.2087
(28.1)
0.2063
(31.0)
Juan Uribe 0.2914
0.2300
(29.4)
0.2189
(29.0)
0.2064
(32.4)
0.2116
(31.2)
Leonys Martin 0.2827
0.2368
(33.4)
0.2226
(34.6)
0.2305
(27.7)
0.2236
(32.9)
Russell Martin 0.2660
0.2098
(31.0)
0.1950
(32.3)
0.2028
(26.9)
0.2067
(26.1)
Chris Davis 0.1790
0.2542
(33.6)
0.2388
(31.8)
0.2363
(32.5)
0.2382
(32.5)
Todd Frazier 0.2564
0.2040
(42.1)
0.2011
(35.9)
0.1972
(35.9)
0.1960
(38.1)
Bryce Harper 0.2971
0.2335
(29.6)
0.2200
(30.1)
0.2196
(28.7)
0.2126
(32.3)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lorenzo Cain 0.2344 0.2881 32.7
2 J.D. Martinez 0.2219 0.2785 32.6
3 Jon Singleton 0.2574 0.1585 31.7
4 Jhonny Peralta 0.2647 0.2042 30.9
5 Khris Davis 0.2350 0.1680 30.5
6 Mike Moustakas 0.2330 0.1609 30.4
7 Dexter Fowler 0.2239 0.2719 29.9
8 Allen Craig 0.2751 0.2047 29.8
9 Yonder Alonso 0.2757 0.1630 29.2
10 Corey Dickerson 0.2016 0.2508 28.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyler Flowers 0.2000 0.2809 35.4
2 Adrián González 0.2488 0.2052 29.3
3 Mike Zunino 0.2228 0.1641 28.3
4 Allen Craig 0.2594 0.2047 28.0
5 Justin Turner 0.2195 0.3067 27.8
6 Lorenzo Cain 0.2323 0.2881 27.6
7 Stephen Drew 0.2058 0.1152 27.4
8 Danny Santana 0.2259 0.2904 27.4
9 Anthony Rizzo 0.1910 0.2342 26.2
10 Mike Trout 0.2624 0.2270 25.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyler Flowers 0.1963 0.2809 35.3
2 José Abreu 0.2121 0.2621 28.2
3 Stephen Drew 0.2038 0.1152 28.0
4 Justin Turner 0.2151 0.3067 28.0
5 Adrián González 0.2424 0.2052 27.6
6 James Loney 0.2213 0.2669 26.6
7 Mike Trout 0.2588 0.2270 25.7
8 Khris Davis 0.2093 0.1680 25.2
9 Derek Norris 0.1930 0.2543 25.0
10 Jose Altuve 0.2376 0.2772 24.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jon Singleton 0.2439 0.1585 31.9
2 Mike Zunino 0.2233 0.1641 29.4
3 Tyler Flowers 0.2119 0.2809 29.3
4 Justin Turner 0.2146 0.3067 28.8
5 Jon Jay 0.2411 0.3038 28.1
6 Khris Davis 0.2164 0.1680 28.0
7 Stephen Drew 0.2034 0.1152 27.3
8 Billy Hamilton 0.2640 0.2252 25.4
9 Derek Norris 0.1946 0.2543 25.2
10 Josh Harrison 0.1983 0.2465 25.1

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Michael Morse 0.1049
0.0580
(21.8)
0.0704
(17.4)
0.0675
(18.0)
0.0704
(16.9)
Freddie Freeman 0.0962
0.0622
(22.8)
0.0724
(18.0)
0.0741
(15.7)
0.0742
(16.0)
Leonys Martin 0.0309
0.0748
(26.6)
0.0640
(18.4)
0.0667
(20.9)
0.0652
(19.7)
Paul Goldschmidt 0.1373
0.0739
(29.5)
0.0907
(23.1)
0.0877
(23.8)
0.0883
(23.8)
Jonathan Lucroy 0.1054
0.0544
(32.2)
0.0591
(31.3)
0.0562
(32.2)
0.0556
(33.0)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1083
0.0598
(32.0)
0.0783
(21.7)
0.0802
(19.3)
0.0746
(23.5)
Trevor Plouffe 0.0995
0.0650
(19.1)
0.0667
(20.0)
0.0661
(19.5)
0.0667
(19.5)
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.1944
0.0556
(17.8)
0.0615
(17.5)
0.0675
(16.5)
0.0714
(16.1)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Carpenter 0.0989 0.0678 23.4
2 Steve Pearce 0.0472 0.1074 22.4
3 Chris Iannetta 0.0482 0.1033 19.9
4 DJ LeMahieu 0.0724 0.0374 19.8
5 Drew Stubbs 0.0438 0.0909 19.2
6 Jhonny Peralta 0.0561 0.0882 19.0
7 Danny Santana 0.0435 0.0891 18.9
8 Derek Jeter 0.0658 0.0378 18.8
9 Mike Trout 0.0713 0.0995 18.7
10 Luis Valbuena 0.0586 0.0940 18.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eduardo Escobar 0.0498 0.1029 25.5
2 Ryan Howard 0.0860 0.0499 22.4
3 Josh Harrison 0.0512 0.0884 21.3
4 Steve Pearce 0.0625 0.1074 17.8
5 Matt Carpenter 0.0943 0.0678 17.7
6 J.D. Martinez 0.0657 0.1007 17.5
7 Conor Gillaspie 0.0487 0.0812 17.2
8 Mike Trout 0.0767 0.0995 17.2
9 Devin Mesoraco 0.0596 0.0965 16.9
10 Evan Longoria 0.0792 0.0543 16.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eduardo Escobar 0.0543 0.1029 22.7
2 Evan Longoria 0.0823 0.0543 19.6
3 Mike Trout 0.0731 0.0995 18.6
4 Danny Santana 0.0492 0.0891 17.2
5 Ryan Howard 0.0756 0.0499 16.7
6 Chris Iannetta 0.0599 0.1033 16.2
7 Khris Davis 0.0726 0.1019 16.1
8 Hanley Ramirez 0.0678 0.0992 16.0
9 Michael Brantley 0.0599 0.0833 15.9
10 José Abreu 0.0639 0.0891 15.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eduardo Escobar 0.0537 0.1029 23.2
2 Danny Santana 0.0437 0.0891 19.8
3 Todd Frazier 0.0795 0.0508 18.6
4 Ryan Howard 0.0787 0.0499 18.3
5 Matt Kemp 0.0717 0.1008 17.8
6 Evan Longoria 0.0792 0.0543 17.0
7 Mark Reynolds 0.0772 0.0377 16.9
8 Michael Brantley 0.0592 0.0833 16.7
9 Conor Gillaspie 0.0488 0.0812 16.7
10 Chris Iannetta 0.0609 0.1033 16.0

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Michael Bourn 0.0301
0.0169
(6.5)
0.0157
(7.2)
0.0135
(8.0)
0.0158
(7.6)
Hunter Pence 0.0199
0.0044
(11.1)
0.0095
(7.7)
0.0078
(8.4)
0.0085
(9.0)
Josh Reddick 0.0240
0.0080
(6.4)
0.0091
(6.1)
0.0072
(6.5)
0.0108
(5.7)
David Peralta 0.0342
0.0122
(7.7)
0.0068
(9.7)
0.0030
(10.8)
0.0068
(10.0)
Andre Ethier 0.0226
0.0034
(7.4)
0.0028
(7.7)
0.0039
(7.0)
0.0027
(8.1)
Alex Rios 0.0200
0.0067
(7.0)
0.0090
(6.0)
0.0092
(5.4)
0.0083
(6.8)
Brandon Crawford 0.0275
0.0052
(12.6)
0.0079
(11.3)
0.0068
(11.5)
0.0113
(9.8)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Danny Santana 0.0000 0.0231 10.0
2 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.0099 0.0237 9.1
3 Adam Eaton 0.0114 0.0246 7.2
4 Alejandro De Aza 0.0090 0.0225 7.2
5 Brandon Barnes 0.0000 0.0211 6.6
6 José Reyes 0.0173 0.0075 6.3
7 Brian Dozier 0.0113 0.0022 6.3
8 Ender Inciarte 0.0196 0.0055 6.2
9 Ian Stewart 0.0000 0.0857 6.2
10 Starlin Castro 0.0127 0.0024 5.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.0093 0.0237 9.7
2 Yasiel Puig 0.0072 0.0214 9.4
3 Kevin Kiermaier 0.0070 0.0311 9.0
4 Danny Santana 0.0068 0.0231 7.2
5 Billy Hamilton 0.0067 0.0177 7.0
6 Josh Rutledge 0.0107 0.0306 7.0
7 Matt Carpenter 0.0142 0.0041 6.8
8 Rougned Odor 0.0068 0.0222 6.6
9 Chris Owings 0.0060 0.0249 6.4
10 Christian Yelich 0.0044 0.0136 6.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yasiel Puig 0.0068 0.0214 9.1
2 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.0118 0.0237 7.5
3 Josh Rutledge 0.0093 0.0306 7.2
4 Adam Eaton 0.0110 0.0246 7.1
5 Alejandro De Aza 0.0093 0.0225 6.8
6 B.J. Upton 0.0046 0.0147 5.7
7 Ian Stewart 0.0069 0.0857 5.7
8 Rougned Odor 0.0084 0.0222 5.6
9 Matt Adams 0.0023 0.0123 5.5
10 AJ Pollock 0.0093 0.0282 5.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Eaton 0.0103 0.0246 8.4
2 Curtis Granderson 0.0181 0.0049 7.8
3 Matt Adams 0.0000 0.0123 7.7
4 Josh Rutledge 0.0118 0.0306 6.8
5 Rougned Odor 0.0073 0.0222 6.7
6 Alejandro De Aza 0.0112 0.0225 6.6
7 Will Venable 0.0218 0.0068 6.2
8 Ian Stewart 0.0068 0.0857 5.8
9 Ryan Kalish 0.0000 0.0426 5.7
10 Starlin Castro 0.0134 0.0024 5.5

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Dee Strange-Gordon 0.1415
0.0940
(32.6)
0.1168
(20.3)
0.0984
(29.9)
0.1153
(21.6)
Brian Dozier 0.1584
0.1042
(40.1)
0.1105
(38.5)
0.1087
(37.1)
0.1181
(33.4)
Michael Brantley 0.1391
0.1118
(20.1)
0.1099
(24.1)
0.1097
(21.8)
0.1179
(19.0)
Danny Santana 0.1628
0.1000
(28.1)
0.1094
(25.8)
0.0965
(29.7)
0.1018
(29.2)
Derek Jeter 0.0741
0.1094
(20.7)
0.1300
(31.3)
0.1182
(26.2)
0.1200
(24.6)
Kole Calhoun 0.1676
0.1208
(26.5)
0.1199
(29.1)
0.1214
(26.3)
0.1181
(30.3)
Anthony Rendon 0.1625
0.1151
(34.1)
0.1051
(43.7)
0.1092
(38.3)
0.1136
(38.2)
Troy Tulowitzki 0.1893
0.1368
(20.7)
0.1368
(22.1)
0.1400
(19.6)
0.1304
(24.7)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Denard Span 0.0958 0.1407 31.7
2 Christian Yelich 0.1047 0.1424 26.6
3 Andrelton Simmons 0.1223 0.0764 25.0
4 Allen Craig 0.1314 0.0812 24.1
5 Todd Frazier 0.1000 0.1333 23.7
6 Anthony Rizzo 0.1096 0.1445 23.1
7 Chris Johnson 0.1098 0.0704 22.5
8 José Molina 0.1094 0.0162 22.4
9 Drew Stubbs 0.1087 0.1580 22.0
10 Corey Dickerson 0.1127 0.1548 21.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.1057 0.1445 27.9
2 Curtis Granderson 0.1528 0.1116 22.7
3 Austin Jackson 0.1493 0.1082 22.7
4 David Ortiz 0.1418 0.0980 22.4
5 Allen Craig 0.1318 0.0812 22.3
6 Hunter Pence 0.1264 0.1497 21.1
7 Yunel Escobar 0.1083 0.0624 20.8
8 Christian Yelich 0.1175 0.1424 20.8
9 Luis Valbuena 0.0939 0.1243 20.2
10 Victor Martinez 0.1109 0.1357 20.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hunter Pence 0.1138 0.1497 27.4
2 Josh Harrison 0.0994 0.1400 23.9
3 David Ortiz 0.1404 0.0980 23.8
4 Christian Yelich 0.1111 0.1424 22.5
5 Carlos Gómez 0.1167 0.1475 21.7
6 Gregory Polanco 0.0956 0.1603 21.0
7 Yunel Escobar 0.1037 0.0624 20.4
8 Todd Frazier 0.1062 0.1333 19.8
9 Shin-Soo Choo 0.1484 0.1096 19.0
10 Kendrys Morales 0.1192 0.0698 18.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Victor Martinez 0.1008 0.1357 26.9
2 Corey Dickerson 0.1115 0.1548 24.0
3 Brock Holt 0.0994 0.1382 22.5
4 Denard Span 0.1186 0.1407 19.4
5 Jason Castro 0.1281 0.0840 19.0
6 Anthony Rizzo 0.1206 0.1445 19.0
7 Bryce Harper 0.1586 0.1038 18.9
8 Alexei Ramirez 0.1031 0.1248 18.9
9 Nelson Cruz 0.1077 0.1283 18.7
10 David Wright 0.1309 0.0922 18.6

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Corey Dickerson 0.1590
0.0954
(31.5)
0.0924
(34.6)
0.1225
(19.9)
0.1187
(23.1)
Mike Trout 0.1574
0.1140
(32.3)
0.1289
(24.2)
0.1304
(22.7)
0.1331
(22.8)
Devin Mesoraco 0.1818
0.1020
(36.1)
0.1072
(35.4)
0.1117
(33.1)
0.1333
(24.8)
Michael Brantley 0.1435
0.0938
(35.2)
0.1065
(29.0)
0.0983
(34.0)
0.1099
(28.1)
Lucas Duda 0.1544
0.1111
(27.2)
0.1111
(29.2)
0.1103
(29.3)
0.1169
(27.1)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ben Zobrist 0.1388 0.0795 37.2
2 Hunter Pence 0.1545 0.1045 33.8
3 Adam LaRoche 0.1040 0.1570 32.4
4 Allen Craig 0.1569 0.0911 32.1
5 Jayson Werth 0.0862 0.1304 29.3
6 Jason Kipnis 0.1280 0.0739 28.7
7 Curtis Granderson 0.1458 0.1009 27.8
8 Leonys Martin 0.1178 0.0686 27.3
9 Starlin Castro 0.0706 0.1142 26.1
10 Elvis Andrus 0.1003 0.0599 26.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.1040 0.1720 45.9
2 Allen Craig 0.1638 0.0911 33.8
3 Justin Upton 0.1134 0.1591 33.0
4 Kyle Seager 0.1081 0.1468 29.1
5 Adam LaRoche 0.1218 0.1570 24.0
6 Dustin Ackley 0.0818 0.1199 23.8
7 James Jones 0.1040 0.0274 23.2
8 Jason Kipnis 0.1194 0.0739 22.1
9 Hunter Pence 0.1412 0.1045 21.9
10 Trevor Plouffe 0.1057 0.1375 21.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Victor Martinez 0.1211 0.1607 28.7
2 Adrián González 0.1395 0.1758 27.3
3 J.D. Martinez 0.1112 0.1583 25.1
4 Justin Upton 0.1267 0.1591 24.0
5 Russell Martin 0.1016 0.1457 22.6
6 Ian Kinsler 0.1016 0.1267 22.0
7 Nick Markakis 0.1061 0.0704 21.7
8 James Jones 0.0974 0.0274 21.3
9 Brandon Crawford 0.0909 0.1223 20.6
10 B.J. Upton 0.1002 0.0601 20.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.1208 0.1720 36.8
2 Justin Upton 0.1130 0.1591 34.7
3 Allen Craig 0.1670 0.0911 34.3
4 Mark Teixeira 0.1966 0.1220 33.9
5 Kyle Seager 0.1077 0.1468 30.8
6 Freddie Freeman 0.1557 0.1102 26.6
7 Dustin Ackley 0.0818 0.1199 25.0
8 Mark Reynolds 0.1692 0.1039 24.8
9 Jason Kipnis 0.1259 0.0739 24.5
10 Trevor Plouffe 0.1043 0.1375 23.9

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3699
0.2456
(81.5)
0.2838
(61.3)
0.2925
(56.0)
0.2993
(53.2)
Mike Trout 0.0879
0.1768
(61.9)
0.1728
(54.1)
0.1536
(40.2)
0.2000
(71.1)
Jose Altuve 0.2679
0.1571
(79.1)
0.1783
(69.1)
0.1728
(73.4)
0.1954
(59.2)
Michael Bourn 0.0820
0.1709
(42.8)
0.2000
(53.5)
0.1843
(45.6)
0.2048
(54.4)
Charlie Blackmon 0.1687
0.0787
(59.0)
0.0976
(51.4)
0.0942
(53.9)
0.1140
(42.7)
Eric Young Jr. 0.3896
0.2500
(44.4)
0.2593
(43.8)
0.2568
(44.7)
0.2783
(38.7)
James Jones 0.3553
0.1538
(66.4)
0.0629
(98.6)
0.1862
(58.3)
0.1574
(68.6)
Anthony Rendon 0.0983
0.0132
(58.8)
0.0297
(52.4)
0.0245
(56.3)
0.0159
(64.0)
Ben Revere 0.2737
0.1506
(77.7)
0.2149
(41.9)
0.1945
(55.0)
0.2252
(37.4)
Lorenzo Cain 0.2121
0.1008
(56.4)
0.1193
(50.7)
0.1091
(56.1)
0.1316
(46.1)
Denard Span 0.1685
0.0704
(66.2)
0.1060
(47.2)
0.1059
(47.6)
0.1088
(47.3)
Jordan Schafer 0.4918
0.1818
(74.6)
0.2421
(61.9)
0.2361
(63.5)
0.2727
(55.3)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Todd Frazier 0.0263 0.1176 61.0
2 Leury García 0.1250 0.4400 49.0
3 Drew Stubbs 0.0882 0.1961 46.2
4 Kolten Wong 0.1048 0.2083 45.3
5 Rougned Odor 0.1500 0.0435 44.0
6 Austin Jackson 0.0613 0.1235 41.4
7 Mike Zunino 0.0864 0.0000 40.7
8 Chris Heisey 0.0357 0.1698 40.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Billy Hamilton 0.2593 0.4088 96.3
2 Danny Santana 0.0629 0.1818 54.6
3 Kolten Wong 0.0926 0.2083 53.6
4 Todd Frazier 0.0480 0.1176 51.3
5 Leury García 0.1311 0.4400 49.1
6 Ender Inciarte 0.0629 0.1624 48.1
7 Coco Crisp 0.2214 0.1293 45.0
8 Anthony Gose 0.0629 0.2055 41.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rougned Odor 0.1810 0.0435 53.7
2 Billy Hamilton 0.4972 0.4088 48.7
3 Todd Frazier 0.0552 0.1176 47.0
4 George Springer 0.1965 0.0575 45.0
5 Carl Crawford 0.1199 0.2300 43.9
6 Alcides Escobar 0.1422 0.2039 43.7
7 Jimmy Rollins 0.1233 0.1830 41.7
8 Kolten Wong 0.1248 0.2083 39.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Gómez 0.3019 0.2024 56.8
2 Rougned Odor 0.1641 0.0435 45.6
3 Jean Segura 0.2431 0.1504 45.4
4 Rajai Davis 0.4021 0.3000 44.9
5 George Springer 0.1915 0.0575 42.4
6 Ender Inciarte 0.2624 0.1624 39.7
7 Austin Jackson 0.0769 0.1235 37.9
8 Coco Crisp 0.2109 0.1293 37.8

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2890
0.2565
(26.7)
0.2519
(28.3)
0.2468
(29.2)
0.2510
(26.1)
Casey McGehee 0.2873
0.2489
(32.5)
0.2275
(45.8)
0.2417
(33.4)
0.2489
(28.1)
Jose Altuve 0.3409
0.2971
(37.1)
0.2794
(48.0)
0.2809
(44.4)
0.2853
(40.9)
Danny Santana 0.3185
0.2414
(36.9)
0.2549
(30.1)
0.2586
(26.9)
0.2540
(28.7)
Michael Brantley 0.3273
0.2888
(31.9)
0.2769
(38.4)
0.2725
(38.9)
0.2776
(35.2)
Juan Uribe 0.3109
0.2500
(28.1)
0.2474
(28.2)
0.2370
(30.9)
0.2421
(28.7)
Russell Martin 0.2902
0.2322
(30.7)
0.2294
(31.0)
0.2278
(30.0)
0.2344
(26.7)
Chris Davis 0.1956
0.2737
(36.5)
0.2739
(37.8)
0.2679
(36.6)
0.2665
(36.1)
Josh Harrison 0.3154
0.2772
(25.8)
0.2520
(38.4)
0.2657
(28.8)
0.2638
(29.6)
Allen Craig 0.2148
0.3050
(41.2)
0.3015
(40.5)
0.2920
(37.6)
0.2838
(33.8)
J.D. Martinez 0.3152
0.2667
(27.5)
0.2507
(34.1)
0.2512
(32.0)
0.2532
(30.8)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Morneau 0.2606 0.3187 36.7
2 Drew Stubbs 0.2300 0.2887 28.6
3 Lorenzo Cain 0.2554 0.3015 27.5
4 Chris Coghlan 0.2292 0.2831 27.0
5 Victor Martinez 0.3021 0.3351 26.7
6 Anthony Rendon 0.2569 0.2871 26.6
7 Corey Dickerson 0.2663 0.3119 26.0
8 Jedd Gyorko 0.2751 0.2100 25.0
9 Denard Span 0.2744 0.3016 24.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.2549 0.3165 42.4
2 Justin Morneau 0.2574 0.3187 37.3
3 Anthony Rizzo 0.2420 0.2863 31.2
4 Corey Dickerson 0.2570 0.3119 29.3
5 Jon Singleton 0.2549 0.1677 29.2
6 Adam Eaton 0.2532 0.3004 28.9
7 Kurt Suzuki 0.2376 0.2876 28.4
8 Lorenzo Cain 0.2543 0.3015 26.9
9 Justin Turner 0.2644 0.3403 26.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.2686 0.3165 31.5
2 Victor Martinez 0.2895 0.3351 31.0
3 Justin Turner 0.2542 0.3403 28.6
4 Michael Choice 0.2779 0.1818 26.1
5 Kurt Suzuki 0.2422 0.2876 24.2
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.2575 0.1979 24.1
7 Carlos Gómez 0.2510 0.2840 23.0
8 Todd Frazier 0.2414 0.2730 22.7
9 Nate Schierholtz 0.2573 0.1955 22.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Victor Martinez 0.2909 0.3351 29.8
2 José Abreu 0.2725 0.3165 28.8
3 Adam Eaton 0.2505 0.3004 28.1
4 Derek Norris 0.2110 0.2701 27.1
5 Justin Turner 0.2613 0.3403 26.2
6 Lorenzo Cain 0.2523 0.3015 25.8
7 Nate Schierholtz 0.2597 0.1955 23.7
8 Jon Singleton 0.2330 0.1677 22.8
9 Corey Dickerson 0.2671 0.3119 22.5

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Casey McGehee 0.3546
0.3129
(33.8)
0.2888
(50.9)
0.3052
(36.7)
0.3112
(31.2)
Justin Turner 0.4037
0.3264
(27.2)
0.3230
(28.6)
0.3071
(32.3)
0.3134
(29.7)
Jose Altuve 0.3768
0.3346
(34.9)
0.3219
(44.4)
0.3244
(39.7)
0.3230
(39.4)
Michael Brantley 0.3846
0.3438
(32.5)
0.3322
(40.8)
0.3316
(38.4)
0.3312
(37.4)
Anthony Rizzo 0.3864
0.3333
(37.1)
0.3238
(43.4)
0.3462
(27.0)
0.3359
(32.3)
Russell Martin 0.4017
0.3165
(42.5)
0.3213
(40.7)
0.3197
(39.5)
0.3260
(35.7)
Victor Martinez 0.4087
0.3505
(41.9)
0.3556
(39.1)
0.3464
(42.4)
0.3411
(44.6)
Jonathan Lucroy 0.3725
0.3333
(30.4)
0.3352
(29.6)
0.3280
(31.6)
0.3307
(28.6)
Allen Craig 0.2792
0.3595
(36.9)
0.3566
(35.1)
0.3487
(33.2)
0.3380
(28.7)
Carlos Gómez 0.3561
0.3178
(29.3)
0.3196
(28.6)
0.3051
(35.3)
0.3128
(29.2)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Danny Santana 0.2667 0.3528 40.1
2 Yasiel Puig 0.3304 0.3824 37.9
3 Jason Castro 0.3536 0.2857 31.1
4 Giancarlo Stanton 0.3551 0.3950 30.0
5 Jonathan Schoop 0.3132 0.2437 30.0
6 Adam LaRoche 0.3181 0.3618 29.8
7 Jayson Werth 0.3555 0.3943 28.9
8 Seth Smith 0.3201 0.3673 28.3
9 Alberto Callaspo 0.3588 0.2905 27.6
10 Adrian Beltré 0.3507 0.3876 27.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.3181 0.3826 45.1
2 Brian Dozier 0.3035 0.3452 35.1
3 Jonathan Schoop 0.3239 0.2437 34.8
4 Devin Mesoraco 0.2943 0.3591 32.0
5 Josh Harrison 0.2967 0.3467 31.9
6 Giancarlo Stanton 0.3548 0.3950 30.7
7 Lonnie Chisenhall 0.2933 0.3428 30.6
8 J.D. Martinez 0.3027 0.3583 30.5
9 Kurt Suzuki 0.2922 0.3446 30.4
10 Justin Morneau 0.3216 0.3636 27.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Dozier 0.3048 0.3452 31.2
2 J.D. Martinez 0.3011 0.3583 29.3
3 Adrian Beltré 0.3444 0.3876 28.8
4 Danny Santana 0.2899 0.3528 28.6
5 Miguel Cabrera 0.4146 0.3708 27.4
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.3337 0.2654 27.3
7 Devin Mesoraco 0.3029 0.3591 26.4
8 Brian McCann 0.3387 0.2862 26.2
9 Nate Schierholtz 0.3131 0.2428 25.5
10 Kurt Suzuki 0.2980 0.3446 25.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Dozier 0.3034 0.3452 30.9
2 Danny Santana 0.2855 0.3528 29.8
3 Adrian Beltré 0.3411 0.3876 29.7
4 Brian McCann 0.3397 0.2862 27.7
5 J.D. Martinez 0.3030 0.3583 27.5
6 Jayson Werth 0.3529 0.3943 27.2
7 Jonathan Schoop 0.3006 0.2437 26.5
8 Nate Schierholtz 0.3122 0.2428 25.8
9 Ian Kinsler 0.3445 0.3071 25.8
10 Josh Harrison 0.3019 0.3467 25.7

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Corey Dickerson 0.5665
0.4613
(60.8)
0.4261
(77.2)
0.4688
(52.5)
0.4717
(51.9)
Devin Mesoraco 0.5339
0.4005
(68.4)
0.3781
(77.8)
0.4036
(62.7)
0.4209
(55.8)
Michael Brantley 0.5057
0.4100
(79.6)
0.3942
(89.6)
0.3847
(90.1)
0.3915
(86.6)
Chris Davis 0.4044
0.5456
(62.6)
0.5310
(55.4)
0.5266
(57.7)
0.5460
(67.0)
Victor Martinez 0.5651
0.4340
(98.1)
0.4313
(99.2)
0.4272
(96.2)
0.4246
(98.9)
Josh Harrison 0.4904
0.4185
(51.7)
0.3780
(73.4)
0.3822
(66.2)
0.3995
(57.6)
Allen Craig 0.3145
0.4832
(74.0)
0.4740
(69.9)
0.4664
(70.5)
0.4541
(63.5)
Steve Pearce 0.5562
0.3916
(71.5)
0.3865
(73.1)
0.4114
(60.1)
0.4041
(63.6)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Danny Santana 0.2759 0.4716 93.6
2 Justin Morneau 0.3958 0.4960 67.3
3 Drew Stubbs 0.3463 0.4820 66.9
4 Anthony Rendon 0.4055 0.4731 61.2
5 Chris Coghlan 0.3438 0.4519 56.2
6 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3141 0.3777 55.6
7 Anthony Rizzo 0.4604 0.5267 54.4
8 Evan Longoria 0.5027 0.4038 53.8
9 Jedd Gyorko 0.4740 0.3325 52.9
10 Jay Bruce 0.4906 0.3732 52.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.3936 0.5809 129.6
2 J.D. Martinez 0.3854 0.5533 90.7
3 Anthony Rizzo 0.4159 0.5267 81.2
4 Anthony Rendon 0.3918 0.4731 69.9
5 Jose Altuve 0.3796 0.4530 66.8
6 Drew Stubbs 0.3552 0.4820 62.7
7 Justin Morneau 0.4067 0.4960 60.7
8 Nolan Arenado 0.4023 0.5000 55.5
9 Lucas Duda 0.4132 0.4805 52.7
10 Chris Coghlan 0.3531 0.4519 51.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Martinez 0.3898 0.5533 84.3
2 Lucas Duda 0.3912 0.4805 60.5
3 Danny Santana 0.3471 0.4716 58.8
4 Jose Altuve 0.3856 0.4530 56.3
5 Anthony Rendon 0.4072 0.4731 53.3
6 Jay Bruce 0.4814 0.3732 52.3
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.4007 0.2656 52.0
8 Nelson Cruz 0.4615 0.5253 51.5
9 David Wright 0.4712 0.3738 49.9
10 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3134 0.3777 49.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Martinez 0.3820 0.5533 88.9
2 Domonic Brown 0.4968 0.3488 68.6
3 Danny Santana 0.3375 0.4716 63.6
4 José Abreu 0.4936 0.5809 63.0
5 Jose Altuve 0.3835 0.4530 59.0
6 Jay Bruce 0.4854 0.3732 53.6
7 Nate Schierholtz 0.4530 0.3088 49.9
8 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3148 0.3777 49.9
9 Lucas Duda 0.4124 0.4805 48.9
10 Nelson Cruz 0.4690 0.5253 47.5

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Roenis Elías 693
1
(692.0)
1
(692.0)
4
(689.0)
1
(692.0)
Scott Carroll 573
1
(572.0)
1
(572.0)
5
(568.0)
1
(572.0)
Iván Nova 96
750
(653.9)
625
(529.0)
739
(643.0)
726
(630.0)
Matt Moore 44
779
(735.0)
666
(622.0)
739
(695.0)
739
(694.9)
CC Sabathia 209
932
(722.9)
773
(564.0)
807
(598.0)
843
(633.9)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hiroki Kuroda 1 820 819.0
2 Hector Noesí 1 733 732.0
3 Aaron Harang 209 876 667.0
4 Tyler Chatwood 726 101 624.9
5 Collin McHugh 1 619 618.0
6 Mike Pelfrey 736 119 617.1
7 Matt Harrison 689 84 604.9
8 José Fernández 794 205 589.1
9 Cliff Lee 918 352 565.9
10 Wandy Rodriguez 684 125 559.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Holland 776 145 631.0
2 Nick Martinez 1 610 609.0
3 Lucas Harrell 646 66 580.0
4 Jacob deGrom 1 565 564.0
5 Masahiro Tanaka 1 542 541.0
6 Tanner Roark 264 798 534.0
7 Marcus Stroman 1 534 533.0
8 Sonny Gray 368 899 531.0
9 Joe Saunders 722 215 507.0
10 David Buchanan 1 503 502.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Harang 42 876 834.0
2 Hector Noesí 43 733 690.0
3 Colby Lewis 124 762 638.0
4 Erik Johnson 718 109 609.0
5 Nick Martinez 5 610 605.0
6 Edinson Volquez 210 809 599.0
7 José Fernández 803 205 598.0
8 Mike Pelfrey 717 119 598.0
9 Collin McHugh 43 619 576.0
10 Chris Young 129 688 559.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Holland 830 145 684.9
2 Brian Flynn 702 35 667.1
3 Blake Beavan 682 16 665.9
4 Chris Rusin 696 58 638.1
5 Nick Martinez 1 610 609.0
6 Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez 637 29 607.9
7 Jose Alvarez 606 3 602.9
8 Taylor Hill 643 45 598.1
9 Lucas Harrell 661 66 595.0
10 Eric Jokisch 638 66 572.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Dellin Betances 0.2043
0.1312
(43.6)
0.3271
(40.8)
0.3052
(38.1)
0.3572
(58.0)
Jake Arrieta 0.2417
0.1203
(48.9)
0.3270
(50.6)
0.3003
(42.6)
0.3087
(51.8)
Justin Masterson 0.3641
0.0947
(40.5)
0.3061
(36.1)
0.2911
(36.9)
0.2804
(39.4)
Edwin Jackson 0.3771
0.1022
(46.8)
0.3278
(33.1)
0.2955
(44.8)
0.2891
(44.7)
Ricky Nolasco 0.3738
0.0918
(56.2)
0.3179
(40.9)
0.3109
(36.2)
0.2939
(43.5)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hiroki Kuroda 0.3096 0.2935 178.1
2 Hector Noesí 0.3096 0.3385 126.2
3 Josh Beckett 0.3096 0.3103 95.2
4 Daisuke Matsuzaka 0.3096 0.3118 71.4
5 Brandon League 0.3096 0.3068 55.7
6 Paul Maholm 0.3096 0.3585 47.3
7 Colby Lewis 0.1072 0.3657 43.8
8 Eric Stults 0.0812 0.3364 41.4
9 Kevin Correia 0.0964 0.3571 41.0
10 Brandon McCarthy 0.0792 0.3265 38.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 0.3590 0.2622 58.0
2 Garrett Richards 0.3214 0.2442 50.3
3 Carlos Carrasco 0.3371 0.2444 47.4
4 Corey Kluber 0.3263 0.2771 43.9
5 Dallas Keuchel 0.3443 0.2907 40.9
6 Justin Verlander 0.2895 0.3318 40.4
7 Félix Hernández 0.2904 0.2437 39.8
8 Colby Lewis 0.3198 0.3657 37.2
9 Wade Davis 0.3317 0.1956 37.1
10 Phil Hughes 0.3398 0.2945 36.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Garrett Richards 0.3056 0.2442 48.9
2 Johnny Cueto 0.2894 0.2585 40.0
3 A.J. Burnett 0.2774 0.3297 38.9
4 Franklin Morales 0.3028 0.3730 38.4
5 Carlos Carrasco 0.3031 0.2444 36.7
6 Justin Verlander 0.2816 0.3318 35.2
7 Roenis Elías 0.3552 0.3184 33.0
8 Félix Hernández 0.2684 0.2437 32.3
9 Clayton Kershaw 0.2619 0.2310 31.2
10 Mike Minor 0.2913 0.3489 29.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Garrett Richards 0.3013 0.2442 50.4
2 Collin McHugh 0.3242 0.2622 49.0
3 Justin Verlander 0.2596 0.3318 49.0
4 Carlos Carrasco 0.3170 0.2444 47.5
5 Mike Minor 0.2712 0.3489 38.5
6 Wade Davis 0.3103 0.1956 36.8
7 Dallas Keuchel 0.3152 0.2907 33.8
8 Kyle Gibson 0.3284 0.3026 32.6
9 Eric Stults 0.2778 0.3364 31.6
10 Zack Britton 0.3216 0.2291 31.3

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Dellin Betances 0.3959
0.2335
(52.2)
0.2109
(61.7)
0.2342
(51.7)
0.1801
(70.2)
Wade Davis 0.3907
0.1864
(54.4)
0.1936
(53.9)
0.2065
(48.6)
0.1867
(54.2)
Johnny Cueto 0.2518
0.1797
(60.4)
0.1922
(53.5)
0.1897
(50.0)
0.1771
(62.4)
Shelby Miller 0.1662
0.2198
(48.0)
0.2228
(46.2)
0.2300
(56.4)
0.2317
(57.5)
Jake Arrieta 0.2720
0.1830
(49.0)
0.1974
(43.4)
0.1965
(40.1)
0.1822
(49.1)
Corey Kluber 0.2829
0.2068
(63.6)
0.2096
(65.9)
0.1985
(70.7)
0.2148
(55.4)
Justin Verlander 0.1781
0.2375
(61.3)
0.2354
(54.7)
0.2234
(49.5)
0.2500
(73.0)
Carlos Carrasco 0.2647
0.1838
(37.9)
0.1731
(46.4)
0.1809
(39.0)
0.1632
(48.5)
Garrett Richards 0.2419
0.1610
(48.6)
0.1703
(45.9)
0.1564
(51.1)
0.1532
(53.5)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Clayton Kershaw 0.2385 0.3191 53.5
2 Andrew Miller 0.2324 0.4256 44.5
3 Chris Sale 0.2353 0.3036 40.5
4 Aroldis Chapman 0.3174 0.5248 40.0
5 Tyson Ross 0.1835 0.2404 38.7
6 Chris Tillman 0.2070 0.1722 38.3
7 Jason Hammel 0.1586 0.2210 38.0
8 Yusmeiro Petit 0.1971 0.2885 37.9
9 Jacob deGrom 0.1797 0.2549 37.3
10 Tommy Milone 0.2044 0.1445 35.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Scott Carroll 0.2036 0.1117 54.9
2 Clayton Kershaw 0.2463 0.3191 51.6
3 Brad Boxberger 0.2143 0.4211 50.1
4 Nick Martinez 0.2036 0.1262 49.6
5 Collin McHugh 0.1709 0.2536 48.8
6 Nick Tepesch 0.1907 0.1043 48.5
7 David Price 0.2188 0.2686 46.3
8 Andrew Miller 0.2350 0.4256 45.2
9 Jon Lester 0.1985 0.2486 40.9
10 Aroldis Chapman 0.3258 0.5248 39.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Franklin Morales 0.2154 0.1548 45.6
2 Clayton Kershaw 0.2494 0.3191 44.6
3 David Price 0.2149 0.2686 44.0
4 Brandon McCarthy 0.1477 0.2093 43.1
5 Jon Lester 0.1907 0.2486 42.3
6 A.J. Burnett 0.2363 0.2032 40.3
7 Josh Collmenter 0.2046 0.1599 39.3
8 Matt Shoemaker 0.1460 0.2284 39.3
9 Brad Boxberger 0.2556 0.4211 38.4
10 Jacob deGrom 0.1787 0.2549 37.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Scott Carroll 0.2036 0.1117 58.3
2 Jacob deGrom 0.1441 0.2549 57.0
3 Collin McHugh 0.1559 0.2536 54.4
4 Nick Martinez 0.2036 0.1262 53.2
5 Josh Collmenter 0.2195 0.1599 49.9
6 Jake Odorizzi 0.1629 0.2420 49.9
7 Yusmeiro Petit 0.1757 0.2885 47.5
8 Matt Shoemaker 0.1357 0.2284 45.0
9 Zach Duke 0.1253 0.3109 41.9
10 Brandon McCarthy 0.1508 0.2093 40.7

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1392
0.0863
(27.2)
0.1011
(21.7)
0.0993
(23.4)
0.1001
(23.3)
Roberto Hernandez 0.1011
0.0539
(31.3)
0.0670
(25.4)
0.0644
(28.1)
0.0608
(31.3)
Phil Hughes 0.0187
0.0500
(30.0)
0.0671
(40.4)
0.0641
(36.9)
0.0628
(35.1)
Nathan Eovaldi 0.0504
0.0840
(32.0)
0.0878
(30.9)
0.0924
(33.9)
0.0873
(28.9)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hiroki Kuroda 0.0762 0.0427 30.6
2 Jeff Samardzija 0.0788 0.0489 29.6
3 Stephen Strasburg 0.0792 0.0495 29.1
4 C.J. Wilson 0.0740 0.1117 25.8
5 John Danks 0.0527 0.0865 25.7
6 Justin Masterson 0.0749 0.1166 22.4
7 Tim Hudson 0.0673 0.0431 22.1
8 Yovani Gallardo 0.0887 0.0661 21.6
9 Daisuke Matsuzaka 0.0762 0.1393 21.3
10 Brad Peacock 0.0796 0.1188 20.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jeff Samardzija 0.0846 0.0489 30.3
2 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.0637 0.0296 23.4
3 David Price 0.0597 0.0377 21.0
4 A.J. Burnett 0.0814 0.1027 21.0
5 Stephen Strasburg 0.0748 0.0495 20.9
6 James Shields 0.0697 0.0469 20.4
7 Jon Lester 0.0784 0.0542 20.3
8 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0717 0.1364 20.3
9 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0722 0.0453 19.9
10 John Danks 0.0646 0.0865 19.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jeff Samardzija 0.0848 0.0489 29.5
2 Tyler Matzek 0.1439 0.0875 27.2
3 Trevor Bauer 0.1285 0.0905 23.7
4 TJ House 0.1071 0.0513 23.0
5 Wily Peralta 0.0996 0.0728 20.6
6 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.0596 0.0296 19.6
7 Justin Masterson 0.0860 0.1166 19.4
8 Jim Johnson 0.0616 0.1331 19.4
9 A.J. Burnett 0.0843 0.1027 19.4
10 Dellin Betances 0.1292 0.0704 19.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Bauer 0.1583 0.0905 42.9
2 Dellin Betances 0.1739 0.0704 34.2
3 Rubby De La Rosa 0.1428 0.0794 26.6
4 Tyler Matzek 0.1402 0.0875 25.0
5 Jake Arrieta 0.1093 0.0668 24.2
6 Francisco Liriano 0.0866 0.1172 23.3
7 Wily Peralta 0.1028 0.0728 22.6
8 Jake Peavy 0.0511 0.0739 22.1
9 Justin Masterson 0.0845 0.1166 20.8
10 Wade Miley 0.0659 0.0866 20.6

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
John Lackey 0.0012
0.0000
(6.3)
0.0109
(8.7)
0.0115
(8.9)
0.0112
(7.8)
Edinson Volquez 0.0173
0.0000
(7.0)
0.0070
(7.8)
0.0080
(7.2)
0.0068
(9.0)
Charlie Morton 0.0285
0.0000
(13.2)
0.0190
(5.9)
0.0156
(8.3)
0.0203
(5.9)
Justin Masterson 0.0253
0.0000
(9.8)
0.0161
(5.0)
0.0139
(6.5)
0.0164
(5.6)
Mike Leake 0.0144
0.0000
(5.1)
0.0068
(6.2)
0.0077
(5.7)
0.0065
(7.7)
Scott Carroll 0.0209
0.0000
(7.0)
0.0090
(6.4)
0.0064
(8.1)
0.0090
(7.2)
Jeremy Guthrie 0.0162
0.0000
(6.5)
0.0091
(5.5)
0.0095
(5.5)
0.0095
(6.3)
A.J. Burnett 0.0171
0.0000
(7.9)
0.0110
(5.0)
0.0102
(6.1)
0.0107
(6.6)
Bud Norris 0.0204
0.0000
(8.0)
0.0085
(7.7)
0.0080
(8.2)
0.0079
(9.0)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hector Noesí 0.0090 0.0027 11.0
2 Hiroki Kuroda 0.0090 0.0085 7.5
3 Aaron Harang 0.0000 0.0011 6.6
4 Johnny Cueto 0.0000 0.0156 6.6
5 Samuel Deduno 0.0000 0.0226 6.1
6 R.A. Dickey 0.0000 0.0153 6.0
7 Darren O'Day 0.0000 0.0295 5.6
8 Jimmy Nelson 0.0000 0.0257 5.3
9 Jose Quintana 0.0000 0.0024 5.2
10 Trevor Bauer 0.0000 0.0166 5.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Julio Teheran 0.0136 0.0045 8.7
2 Kyle Gibson 0.0132 0.0026 8.5
3 Ian Kennedy 0.0136 0.0047 8.1
4 Héctor Santiago 0.0189 0.0055 7.6
5 Aaron Harang 0.0079 0.0011 6.5
6 Jimmy Nelson 0.0060 0.0257 5.9
7 Oliver Pérez 0.0044 0.0273 5.7
8 Stephen Strasburg 0.0115 0.0058 5.6
9 David Holmberg 0.0073 0.0438 4.9
10 Brandon McCarthy 0.0086 0.0036 4.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Julio Teheran 0.0135 0.0045 8.3
2 Ian Kennedy 0.0122 0.0047 6.6
3 Shelby Miller 0.0099 0.0026 5.8
4 Aaron Harang 0.0073 0.0011 5.7
5 Héctor Santiago 0.0148 0.0055 5.3
6 Oliver Pérez 0.0072 0.0273 5.1
7 R.A. Dickey 0.0097 0.0153 4.8
8 David Holmberg 0.0087 0.0438 4.8
9 Darren O'Day 0.0118 0.0295 4.7
10 Stephen Strasburg 0.0106 0.0058 4.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kyle Gibson 0.0156 0.0026 9.3
2 Julio Teheran 0.0143 0.0045 8.1
3 Héctor Santiago 0.0202 0.0055 7.7
4 Ian Kennedy 0.0135 0.0047 6.9
5 Jacob deGrom 0.0142 0.0018 6.7
6 Oliver Pérez 0.0043 0.0273 6.1
7 Yordano Ventura 0.0146 0.0064 6.0
8 R.A. Dickey 0.0096 0.0153 5.8
9 Bartolo Colon 0.0000 0.0059 5.5
10 Jarred Cosart 0.0116 0.0039 5.4

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jake Arrieta 0.0124
0.0369
(14.1)
0.0440
(17.7)
0.0365
(11.4)
0.0387
(14.2)
Phil Hughes 0.0247
0.0421
(13.6)
0.0478
(17.3)
0.0491
(16.2)
0.0436
(13.4)
Marco Estrada 0.0644
0.0379
(17.6)
0.0437
(14.7)
0.0507
(12.0)
0.0442
(14.6)
Juan Nicasio 0.0605
0.0329
(11.9)
0.0347
(11.7)
0.0417
(10.0)
0.0342
(12.0)
Jose Quintana 0.0167
0.0338
(12.9)
0.0350
(12.8)
0.0422
(16.6)
0.0352
(12.7)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hector Noesí 0.0320 0.0507 14.9
2 Dallas Keuchel 0.0364 0.0181 13.5
3 Eric Stults 0.0270 0.0431 13.5
4 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0324 0.0795 13.0
5 J.J. Hoover 0.0316 0.0774 13.0
6 Garrett Richards 0.0304 0.0110 12.1
7 Brandon McCarthy 0.0273 0.0400 11.9
8 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0342 0.0106 11.4
9 Kelvin Herrera 0.0414 0.0000 11.4
10 Brad Boxberger 0.0313 0.0756 11.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dallas Keuchel 0.0396 0.0181 15.0
2 Eric Stults 0.0278 0.0431 13.8
3 Ervin Santana 0.0468 0.0280 13.0
4 Vidal Nuño 0.0343 0.0502 12.7
5 J.J. Hoover 0.0343 0.0774 12.6
6 Garrett Richards 0.0316 0.0110 12.0
7 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0377 0.0795 12.0
8 Brandon McCarthy 0.0287 0.0400 11.8
9 Aaron Harang 0.0389 0.0233 11.1
10 Chris Archer 0.0372 0.0211 10.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Harang 0.0485 0.0233 17.2
2 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0372 0.0795 12.8
3 Mark Buehrle 0.0411 0.0218 11.9
4 Stephen Strasburg 0.0317 0.0398 11.8
5 Chris Tillman 0.0508 0.0323 11.3
6 Hector Noesí 0.0413 0.0507 10.9
7 Brad Boxberger 0.0375 0.0756 10.8
8 Brett Oberholtzer 0.0467 0.0241 10.7
9 Jason Hammel 0.0363 0.0455 10.5
10 Marcus Stroman 0.0430 0.0179 10.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marcus Stroman 0.0583 0.0179 19.9
2 Eric Stults 0.0241 0.0431 16.9
3 Brett Oberholtzer 0.0537 0.0241 16.5
4 Aaron Harang 0.0446 0.0233 15.8
5 Hyun Jin Ryu 0.0429 0.0174 14.1
6 Jason Vargas 0.0509 0.0309 13.3
7 Mark Buehrle 0.0399 0.0218 12.8
8 Todd Redmond 0.0633 0.0222 11.9
9 Jason Hammel 0.0323 0.0455 11.7
10 Johnny Cueto 0.0255 0.0344 11.7

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Félix Hernández 0.2580
0.3050
(51.1)
0.3066
(47.5)
0.2952
(36.0)
0.2936
(41.3)
Johnny Cueto 0.2382
0.2799
(48.7)
0.2774
(40.9)
0.2895
(51.4)
0.2708
(40.6)
Jorge De La Rosa 0.2632
0.3010
(36.0)
0.2975
(29.0)
0.2978
(28.3)
0.2951
(31.9)
Edwin Jackson 0.3521
0.3018
(26.1)
0.3062
(26.9)
0.2945
(35.0)
0.2951
(29.9)
Adam Wainwright 0.2669
0.2855
(24.8)
0.3051
(37.4)
0.2948
(27.1)
0.2917
(31.0)
Jacob Turner 0.3542
0.2789
(33.2)
0.2824
(34.2)
0.2987
(26.7)
0.2780
(33.3)
Ricky Nolasco 0.3515
0.3020
(28.1)
0.3053
(29.7)
0.3044
(31.2)
0.3001
(29.0)
Trevor Cahill 0.3497
0.2755
(32.6)
0.2918
(27.2)
0.2939
(26.7)
0.2812
(29.4)
Chris Young 0.2383
0.2869
(39.6)
0.2823
(32.6)
0.2776
(28.6)
0.2750
(31.9)
Colby Lewis 0.3394
0.2870
(33.1)
0.2814
(41.6)
0.2886
(37.0)
0.2809
(37.3)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Danny Duffy 0.2940 0.2388 38.9
2 R.A. Dickey 0.2912 0.2632 33.9
3 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.2909 0.2040 30.4
4 Ervin Santana 0.2746 0.3189 28.8
5 Marco Estrada 0.2917 0.2565 27.5
6 Stephen Strasburg 0.2747 0.3153 27.4
7 Nathan Eovaldi 0.2826 0.3225 26.4
8 Alfredo Simon 0.2876 0.2646 26.2
9 Collin McHugh 0.2902 0.2587 25.1
10 Justin Masterson 0.2892 0.3395 24.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Danny Duffy 0.3045 0.2388 41.9
2 Travis Wood 0.2625 0.3195 41.9
3 Ervin Santana 0.2665 0.3189 40.0
4 Collin McHugh 0.3198 0.2587 39.9
5 Edinson Volquez 0.3061 0.2628 37.8
6 Doug Fister 0.3070 0.2621 31.9
7 Yu Darvish 0.2806 0.3343 30.4
8 Zack Britton 0.3080 0.2154 27.4
9 Brett Oberholtzer 0.2784 0.3251 27.0
10 Mike Minor 0.2771 0.3229 27.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Verlander 0.2807 0.3173 30.7
2 Travis Wood 0.2787 0.3195 30.2
3 Roenis Elías 0.3350 0.2941 29.9
4 Edinson Volquez 0.2972 0.2628 29.7
5 David Buchanan 0.3389 0.2842 28.6
6 Brandon McCarthy 0.2920 0.3283 28.5
7 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.2904 0.2040 28.1
8 Tommy Kahnle 0.3363 0.2404 27.9
9 Max Scherzer 0.2822 0.3150 27.6
10 Scott Carroll 0.2551 0.3052 27.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Danny Duffy 0.2941 0.2388 39.4
2 Travis Wood 0.2673 0.3195 33.3
3 Collin McHugh 0.3025 0.2587 33.1
4 Edinson Volquez 0.2918 0.2628 31.3
5 Yu Darvish 0.2754 0.3343 29.8
6 Stephen Strasburg 0.2729 0.3153 28.4
7 Ervin Santana 0.2768 0.3189 26.5
8 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.2768 0.2040 26.1
9 Mike Minor 0.2734 0.3229 25.3
10 Zack Britton 0.2943 0.2154 25.2

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Daisuke Matsuzaka 0.1507
0.2243
(104.5)
0.2208
(26.4)
0.2831
(23.1)
0.2846
(27.1)
R.A. Dickey 0.1786
0.0000
(35.5)
0.2078
(29.7)
0.2867
(36.4)
0.2722
(32.1)
Johnny Cueto 0.1799
0.0000
(36.1)
0.2165
(38.3)
0.2895
(39.8)
0.2708
(31.2)
Chris Young 0.1548
0.0000
(43.1)
0.2010
(34.0)
0.2776
(37.6)
0.2750
(42.5)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hiroki Kuroda 0.2243 0.2157 185.3
2 Hector Noesí 0.2243 0.2347 151.7
3 Josh Beckett 0.2243 0.1726 127.8
4 Paul Maholm 0.2243 0.2437 61.6
5 Brandon League 0.2243 0.2647 48.3
6 Brian Wilson 0.2243 0.2443 44.0
7 Scott Downs 0.2243 0.1780 43.5
8 Juan Carlos Oviedo 0.2243 0.1413 42.1
9 Francisley Bueno 0.2243 0.2072 33.3
10 C.J. Wilson 0.0000 0.2555 29.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Félix Hernández 0.2422 0.1993 42.1
2 Travis Wood 0.1853 0.2368 37.7
3 Colby Lewis 0.2060 0.2500 31.0
4 Aaron Harang 0.2090 0.2468 30.2
5 Jacob Turner 0.2112 0.2708 28.2
6 Roberto Hernandez 0.2253 0.1899 27.9
7 Mike Minor 0.1996 0.2466 27.9
8 Jorge De La Rosa 0.2265 0.1936 27.8
9 Brett Oberholtzer 0.2015 0.2490 27.5
10 Adam Wainwright 0.2293 0.2040 25.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Roenis Elías 0.3350 0.2179 33.9
2 Shane Greene 0.2509 0.2805 33.7
3 Roberto Hernandez 0.2971 0.1899 28.1
4 Jorge De La Rosa 0.2978 0.1936 27.6
5 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.2243 0.2196 25.7
6 Félix Hernández 0.2952 0.1993 25.2
7 Scott Carroll 0.2551 0.2301 24.8
8 Jenrry Mejia 0.2974 0.2868 24.0
9 David Buchanan 0.3389 0.2237 23.6
10 Jesse Chavez 0.2888 0.2585 23.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Scott Carroll 0.2243 0.2301 36.8
2 Roenis Elías 0.2243 0.2179 36.1
3 Chase Whitley 0.2243 0.2731 35.4
4 Jorge De La Rosa 0.2951 0.1936 33.0
5 Félix Hernández 0.2936 0.1993 32.6
6 Danny Duffy 0.2941 0.1844 31.1
7 Roberto Hernandez 0.2887 0.1899 29.1
8 David Buchanan 0.2243 0.2237 29.1
9 Adam Wainwright 0.2917 0.2040 26.3
10 Drew Hutchison 0.2890 0.1973 26.2

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Drew Hutchison 0.0918
0.0000
(23.2)
0.0700
(17.1)
0.0000
(22.0)
0.0000
(23.7)
Max Scherzer 0.0867
0.0000
(22.1)
0.0685
(16.5)
0.0000
(20.8)
0.0000
(22.7)
Ryan Vogelsong 0.0846
0.0000
(17.4)
0.0627
(17.0)
0.0000
(16.2)
0.0000
(17.9)
John Danks 0.0809
0.0000
(15.9)
0.0625
(15.7)
0.0000
(14.7)
0.0000
(16.5)
Edwin Jackson 0.1033
0.0000
(26.0)
0.0775
(16.3)
0.0000
(25.0)
0.0000
(26.4)
Mark Buehrle 0.0832
0.0000
(18.0)
0.0657
(14.9)
0.0000
(16.7)
0.0000
(18.5)
A.J. Burnett 0.0832
0.0000
(19.6)
0.0649
(17.1)
0.0000
(18.2)
0.0000
(20.1)
Doug Fister 0.0350
0.0000
(18.1)
0.0570
(14.6)
0.0000
(19.1)
0.0000
(17.7)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hector Noesí 0.0642 0.0477 57.7
2 Hiroki Kuroda 0.0642 0.0588 55.5
3 Paul Maholm 0.0642 0.0588 21.0
4 Josh Beckett 0.0642 0.0847 19.8
5 Brandon League 0.0642 0.0539 19.8
6 Sonny Gray 0.0000 0.0435 16.8
7 J.A. Happ 0.0000 0.0860 16.0
8 Travis Wood 0.0000 0.0827 16.0
9 Mike Leake 0.0000 0.0798 15.8
10 Carlos Villanueva 0.0000 0.1070 15.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 0.0761 0.0398 22.5
2 Stephen Strasburg 0.0499 0.0721 19.2
3 Hector Noesí 0.0729 0.0477 18.5
4 Jeremy Guthrie 0.0662 0.0459 17.6
5 Justin Verlander 0.0608 0.0789 16.1
6 Carlos Carrasco 0.0717 0.0429 15.3
7 Jake Odorizzi 0.0733 0.0521 15.3
8 Jordan Zimmermann 0.0717 0.0526 15.3
9 Vance Worley 0.0789 0.0464 14.9
10 Sergio Santos 0.0693 0.2037 14.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.0642 0.0439 34.0
2 Sonny Gray 0.0000 0.0435 18.2
3 Yovani Gallardo 0.0000 0.0439 16.2
4 Jeremy Guthrie 0.0000 0.0459 15.5
5 J.A. Happ 0.0000 0.0860 15.0
6 Collin McHugh 0.0000 0.0398 14.8
7 Sergio Santos 0.0000 0.2037 14.8
8 Carlos Villanueva 0.0000 0.1070 14.8
9 Travis Wood 0.0000 0.0827 14.8
10 Tyson Ross 0.0000 0.0460 14.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Roenis Elías 0.0642 0.0741 35.9
2 Scott Carroll 0.0642 0.0638 35.6
3 David Buchanan 0.0642 0.0553 35.5
4 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.0642 0.0439 33.1
5 Nick Martinez 0.0642 0.0766 30.1
6 Dominic Leone 0.0642 0.0529 19.8
7 Chase Whitley 0.0642 0.0672 19.3
8 Travis Wood 0.0000 0.0827 16.4
9 J.A. Happ 0.0000 0.0860 16.4
10 Mike Leake 0.0000 0.0798 16.3

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Grant Balfour 0.0357
0.0000
(7.9)
0.0060
(8.0)
0.0000
(7.8)
0.0000
(7.9)
Mike Bolsinger 0.0361
0.0000
(7.1)
0.0067
(7.0)
0.0000
(7.0)
0.0067
(5.5)
Jordan Zimmermann 0.0123
0.0000
(4.6)
0.0054
(5.5)
0.0000
(4.5)
0.0000
(4.7)
Justin Masterson 0.0184
0.0000
(7.1)
0.0040
(8.5)
0.0000
(7.0)
0.0000
(7.1)
Tim Lincecum 0.0243
0.0000
(12.0)
0.0081
(10.9)
0.0000
(11.9)
0.0000
(12.0)
Justin Verlander 0.0139
0.0000
(6.6)
0.0057
(7.3)
0.0000
(6.5)
0.0000
(6.7)
Rick Porcello 0.0154
0.0000
(7.5)
0.0038
(9.8)
0.0000
(7.4)
0.0000
(7.5)
Juan Gutierrez 0.0352
0.0000
(7.7)
0.0065
(7.7)
0.0000
(7.6)
0.0000
(7.7)
Gio González 0.0166
0.0000
(6.6)
0.0041
(8.1)
0.0000
(6.5)
0.0000
(6.6)
Tim Hudson 0.0179
0.0000
(9.0)
0.0071
(8.6)
0.0000
(8.9)
0.0000
(9.1)
Chase Anderson 0.0186
0.0000
(5.9)
0.0067
(5.8)
0.0000
(5.8)
0.0000
(5.9)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hiroki Kuroda 0.0067 0.0049 6.8
2 Josh Beckett 0.0067 0.0000 6.3
3 Cole Hamels 0.0000 0.0000 5.4
4 Chris Perez 0.0000 0.0320 5.1
5 Travis Wood 0.0000 0.0000 5.1
6 Carlos Martinez 0.0000 0.0194 5.0
7 C.J. Wilson 0.0000 0.0000 5.0
8 Ricky Nolasco 0.0000 0.0136 4.9
9 Christian Bergman 0.0000 0.0253 4.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edinson Volquez 0.0105 0.0018 7.1
2 Jorge De La Rosa 0.0023 0.0113 6.9
3 Lance Lynn 0.0124 0.0051 6.3
4 Max Scherzer 0.0104 0.0035 6.2
5 Jonathon Niese 0.0043 0.0121 6.1
6 Gerrit Cole 0.0029 0.0134 6.0
7 Eric Stults 0.0095 0.0017 6.0
8 Alfredo Simon 0.0089 0.0017 5.9
9 Danny Duffy 0.0136 0.0047 5.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cole Hamels 0.0000 0.0000 5.5
2 Travis Wood 0.0000 0.0000 5.2
3 C.J. Wilson 0.0000 0.0000 5.1
4 Chris Perez 0.0000 0.0320 5.1
5 Carlos Martinez 0.0000 0.0194 4.9
6 Ricky Nolasco 0.0000 0.0136 4.8
7 Christian Bergman 0.0000 0.0253 4.6
8 Alex Cobb 0.0000 0.0000 4.5
9 Garrett Richards 0.0000 0.0000 4.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Roenis Elías 0.0067 0.0022 7.6
2 Cole Hamels 0.0000 0.0000 5.3
3 Chris Perez 0.0000 0.0320 5.1
4 Travis Wood 0.0000 0.0000 5.0
5 Carlos Martinez 0.0000 0.0194 5.0
6 Ricky Nolasco 0.0000 0.0136 5.0
7 C.J. Wilson 0.0000 0.0000 4.9
8 Jake Peavy 0.0000 0.0117 4.5
9 Jonathon Niese 0.0000 0.0121 4.4

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Corey Kluber 0.0757
0.1157
(48.5)
0.1186
(39.5)
0.1154
(32.0)
0.1118
(32.4)
Dallas Keuchel 0.0879
0.1293
(42.3)
0.1336
(35.8)
0.1219
(22.7)
0.1323
(34.3)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Scott Carroll 0.0000 0.1414 74.7
2 Roenis Elías 0.0000 0.1111 69.4
3 Nick Tepesch 0.0000 0.1229 60.1
4 Chase Anderson 0.0000 0.1152 50.7
5 Marcus Stroman 0.0000 0.1049 50.2
6 David Buchanan 0.0000 0.1093 49.5
7 Tyler Matzek 0.0000 0.1054 47.5
8 Collin McHugh 0.0000 0.0856 46.2
9 Rubby De La Rosa 0.0000 0.1156 46.2
10 Scott Baker 0.0000 0.1476 45.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 0.1491 0.0856 38.4
2 Jake Arrieta 0.1338 0.0749 35.3
3 Clay Buchholz 0.1005 0.1465 34.9
4 Robbie Ross Jr. 0.0959 0.1781 30.5
5 Justin Verlander 0.0949 0.1277 30.4
6 Garrett Richards 0.1213 0.0752 30.3
7 Travis Wood 0.1043 0.1408 29.6
8 Edwin Jackson 0.1236 0.1659 27.6
9 Edinson Volquez 0.1281 0.0927 27.6
10 Carlos Carrasco 0.1282 0.0756 27.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Jackson 0.1194 0.1659 33.2
2 Robbie Ross Jr. 0.0982 0.1781 31.4
3 Justin Verlander 0.1007 0.1277 29.5
4 Garrett Richards 0.1246 0.0752 29.4
5 Johnny Cueto 0.1079 0.0718 28.9
6 A.J. Burnett 0.1061 0.1305 28.4
7 Justin Masterson 0.1107 0.1520 28.0
8 Tanner Roark 0.1174 0.0802 24.9
9 Clay Buchholz 0.1189 0.1465 24.8
10 Franklin Morales 0.1088 0.1393 23.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Jackson 0.1086 0.1659 37.5
2 Justin Verlander 0.0878 0.1277 37.4
3 Clay Buchholz 0.1009 0.1465 35.1
4 Dellin Betances 0.1490 0.0440 35.1
5 Justin Masterson 0.1033 0.1520 30.0
6 Carlos Carrasco 0.1344 0.0756 30.0
7 Collin McHugh 0.1360 0.0856 29.9
8 Robbie Ross Jr. 0.0993 0.1781 29.5
9 Garrett Richards 0.1194 0.0752 28.6
10 Jake Arrieta 0.1220 0.0749 27.7

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Corey Kluber 0.0673
0.1057
(35.3)
0.1082
(37.3)
0.1061
(31.3)
0.1045
(31.9)
Dallas Keuchel 0.0804
0.1184
(29.6)
0.1221
(32.3)
0.1116
(20.4)
0.1238
(32.0)
Jon Lester 0.0678
0.0987
(26.2)
0.1062
(32.4)
0.1042
(27.0)
0.0962
(21.9)
Justin Masterson 0.1419
0.0932
(29.6)
0.1020
(24.7)
0.1007
(27.9)
0.0963
(29.2)
Clay Buchholz 0.1370
0.0930
(33.4)
0.0932
(33.6)
0.1096
(24.5)
0.0937
(34.7)
Edwin Jackson 0.1564
0.1041
(33.9)
0.1124
(29.0)
0.1098
(33.2)
0.1020
(36.8)
Justin Verlander 0.1165
0.0860
(28.3)
0.0848
(29.8)
0.0923
(26.8)
0.0822
(33.9)
Garrett Richards 0.0723
0.1083
(23.6)
0.1076
(22.8)
0.1144
(24.6)
0.1113
(24.0)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 0.1360 0.0974 25.7
2 Johnny Cueto 0.0914 0.0635 25.5
3 A.J. Burnett 0.0911 0.1166 25.0
4 Jacob Turner 0.1072 0.1537 23.9
5 Henderson Alvarez III 0.1025 0.0712 23.1
6 Wade Davis 0.1102 0.0287 22.4
7 Ricky Nolasco 0.1066 0.1367 21.8
8 Félix Hernández 0.0864 0.0614 21.6
9 Jake Arrieta 0.1080 0.0717 21.5
10 Carlos Carrasco 0.1116 0.0718 20.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 0.1382 0.0759 37.4
2 Jake Arrieta 0.1272 0.0717 33.0
3 Edinson Volquez 0.1212 0.0803 31.6
4 Henderson Alvarez III 0.1101 0.0712 28.7
5 Jacob Turner 0.1029 0.1537 26.3
6 Carlos Carrasco 0.1218 0.0718 25.5
7 Lance Lynn 0.1024 0.0716 25.2
8 Félix Hernández 0.0892 0.0614 23.8
9 Robbie Ross Jr. 0.0849 0.1479 23.7
10 Tyson Ross 0.1054 0.0752 23.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Johnny Cueto 0.0982 0.0635 27.7
2 A.J. Burnett 0.0965 0.1166 24.3
3 Edinson Volquez 0.1158 0.0803 23.9
4 Franklin Morales 0.1005 0.1316 23.9
5 Robbie Ross Jr. 0.0888 0.1479 23.8
6 Aaron Harang 0.1242 0.0925 22.6
7 Ernesto Frieri 0.0718 0.1848 21.9
8 Henderson Alvarez III 0.1039 0.0712 20.7
9 Chris Young 0.1333 0.0974 20.7
10 Hector Noesí 0.1023 0.1241 20.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dellin Betances 0.1387 0.0411 32.0
2 Collin McHugh 0.1277 0.0759 29.8
3 Carlos Carrasco 0.1248 0.0718 26.1
4 Jacob Turner 0.1077 0.1537 24.9
5 Jake Arrieta 0.1141 0.0717 23.8
6 Aaron Harang 0.1227 0.0925 23.3
7 Ricky Nolasco 0.1079 0.1367 22.5
8 Wade Davis 0.1124 0.0287 22.3
9 C.J. Wilson 0.0900 0.1156 22.3
10 Edinson Volquez 0.1111 0.0803 21.9

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Wily Peralta 0.5313
0.3200
(167.5)
0.2195
(215.1)
0.3175
(170.7)
0.3667
(146.9)
Alfredo Simon 0.4688
0.1818
(225.4)
0.1000
(256.6)
0.1004
(293.1)
0.0784
(328.0)
Dallas Keuchel 0.4138
0.2400
(131.2)
0.1579
(162.2)
0.1939
(169.6)
0.2333
(154.4)
Clayton Kershaw 0.7778
0.5484
(163.3)
0.3590
(272.4)
0.4649
(226.8)
0.5455
(182.0)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 0.0004 0.4400 265.1
2 Roenis Elías 0.0005 0.3448 230.8
3 Marcus Stroman 0.0005 0.4231 219.6
4 Matt Shoemaker 0.1875 0.5926 213.8
5 Chase Anderson 0.0004 0.4286 202.6
6 Johnny Cueto 0.3704 0.5882 198.4
7 Vance Worley 0.0005 0.4444 198.1
8 Phil Hughes 0.2857 0.5000 173.5
9 Kyle Hendricks 0.0004 0.5385 169.1
10 Corey Kluber 0.3448 0.5294 164.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Shoemaker 0.1111 0.5926 231.5
2 Yordano Ventura 0.1071 0.4516 226.3
3 Corey Kluber 0.2432 0.5294 219.7
4 Johnny Cueto 0.3077 0.5882 216.7
5 Garrett Richards 0.1333 0.5000 211.2
6 Tyson Ross 0.1053 0.4194 210.0
7 Adam Wainwright 0.3415 0.6250 205.1
8 Phil Hughes 0.2105 0.5000 200.4
9 Doug Fister 0.2895 0.6400 195.6
10 Jarred Cosart 0.1290 0.4333 190.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 0.0539 0.4400 232.8
2 Roenis Elías 0.0000 0.3448 232.0
3 Chase Anderson 0.0000 0.4286 203.4
4 Jacob deGrom 0.0548 0.4091 194.5
5 Johnny Cueto 0.3778 0.5882 192.6
6 Josh Collmenter 0.0623 0.3333 187.7
7 Vidal Nuño 0.3298 0.0645 186.9
8 Tanner Roark 0.2561 0.4839 173.8
9 Jake Peavy 0.3946 0.2188 158.4
10 Adam Wainwright 0.4390 0.6250 158.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Garrett Richards 0.1750 0.5000 227.6
2 Corey Kluber 0.3462 0.5294 184.4
3 Phil Hughes 0.2963 0.5000 183.3
4 Kyle Gibson 0.1905 0.4194 181.3
5 Josh Collmenter 0.0926 0.3333 180.8
6 Francisco Liriano 0.5000 0.2414 171.3
7 Matt Shoemaker 0.2963 0.5926 166.7
8 Tyson Ross 0.2258 0.4194 165.6
9 Jarred Cosart 0.2308 0.4333 163.3
10 Tanner Roark 0.2941 0.4839 159.9

Loss Rate

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Roenis Elías 0.0005 0.4138 285.7
2 Tyler Matzek 0.0005 0.5500 275.9
3 Nick Tepesch 0.0005 0.4783 256.0
4 Collin McHugh 0.0004 0.3600 221.9
5 Scott Carroll 0.0005 0.3846 219.5
6 David Buchanan 0.0005 0.4000 200.4
7 Rubby De La Rosa 0.0004 0.4211 185.0
8 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.0007 0.4375 176.1
9 A.J. Burnett 0.3548 0.5294 162.3
10 Chase Anderson 0.0005 0.3333 161.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 A.J. Burnett 0.2432 0.5294 212.2
2 Eric Stults 0.2250 0.5313 188.5
3 Brett Oberholtzer 0.2000 0.5417 176.0
4 Jake Odorizzi 0.1200 0.4194 172.7
5 Colby Lewis 0.2105 0.4828 162.4
6 Drew Smyly 0.0488 0.3571 154.0
7 Drew Hutchison 0.1600 0.4063 147.0
8 Jimmy Nelson 0.1176 0.6429 144.9
9 Julio Teheran 0.1750 0.3939 141.2
10 Jarred Cosart 0.1290 0.3667 136.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Roenis Elías 0.0000 0.4138 284.2
2 Tyler Matzek 0.0000 0.5500 274.8
3 Nick Martinez 0.0000 0.4138 250.1
4 Hector Noesí 0.0438 0.3636 231.7
5 Scott Carroll 0.0000 0.3846 218.2
6 David Buchanan 0.0000 0.4000 199.3
7 Collin McHugh 0.0432 0.3600 193.8
8 Chris Tillman 0.3826 0.1765 182.8
9 Jimmy Nelson 0.0884 0.6429 171.3
10 Edinson Volquez 0.4264 0.2188 171.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alfredo Simon 0.0588 0.3125 205.3
2 Matt Shoemaker 0.4444 0.1481 162.4
3 A.J. Burnett 0.3571 0.5294 158.5
4 Tyson Ross 0.2581 0.4516 154.7
5 Josh Collmenter 0.0556 0.2727 154.2
6 Chris Tillman 0.3438 0.1765 148.1
7 Colby Lewis 0.2857 0.4828 148.1
8 Mike Minor 0.2581 0.4800 139.6
9 Eric Stults 0.3462 0.5313 139.1
10 Justin Verlander 0.2188 0.3750 137.1

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Héctor Rondón 0.4531
0.0000
(115.5)
0.0323
(112.4)
0.0000
(114.2)
0.0000
(108.6)
Zack Britton 0.5211
0.0000
(148.4)
0.0400
(142.8)
0.0000
(147.0)
0.0000
(140.8)
Francisco Rodríguez 0.6377
0.0909
(146.5)
0.1395
(138.8)
0.0769
(148.9)
0.0000
(163.6)
Jenrry Mejia 0.4444
0.0000
(185.2)
0.0370
(178.2)
0.0000
(183.1)
0.0000
(174.0)
Mark Melancon 0.4583
0.1667
(80.7)
0.1633
(87.2)
0.0615
(108.5)
0.0000
(119.4)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tommy Hunter 0.9677 0.1833 189.1
2 Jim Johnson 0.6316 0.0370 156.4
3 Trevor Rosenthal 1.0882 0.6250 142.8
4 Grant Balfour 0.6724 0.1846 131.8
5 John Axford 0.5313 0.1613 90.0
6 Jason Grilli 0.5472 0.1935 83.2
7 Jose Veras 0.3770 0.0217 72.2
8 Sergio Romo 0.6667 0.3594 70.7
9 Sean Doolittle 0.0784 0.3607 66.5
10 Jake Petricka 0.0002 0.2090 64.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0435 0.6250 185.2
2 David Robertson 0.0392 0.6190 155.3
3 Jim Johnson 0.4902 0.0370 113.9
4 Kenley Jansen 0.2778 0.6471 104.3
5 Steve Cishek 0.2745 0.5821 90.1
6 Greg Holland 0.3673 0.7077 86.5
7 Fernando Rodney 0.4200 0.6957 84.5
8 Cody Allen 0.0417 0.3158 82.0
9 Sean Doolittle 0.0426 0.3607 79.8
10 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.2889 0.0175 79.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jim Johnson 0.4462 0.0370 109.0
2 Fernando Rodney 0.3692 0.6957 91.8
3 Sean Doolittle 0.0182 0.3607 79.6
4 Jason Grilli 0.5231 0.1935 78.7
5 Jose Veras 0.3692 0.0217 71.6
6 Santiago Casilla 0.0308 0.3519 68.8
7 Huston Street 0.3692 0.6721 68.2
8 Grant Balfour 0.4308 0.1846 67.9
9 Josh Fields 0.3538 0.0741 65.8
10 Jake Petricka 0.0000 0.2090 62.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Fernando Rodney 0.0000 0.6957 191.2
2 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0000 0.6250 184.1
3 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.7460 175.4
4 Kenley Jansen 0.0000 0.6471 166.1
5 Greg Holland 0.0000 0.7077 163.3
6 David Robertson 0.0000 0.6190 153.3
7 Steve Cishek 0.0000 0.5821 152.6
8 Huston Street 0.0000 0.6721 147.7
9 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.5909 146.0
10 Joe Nathan 0.0000 0.5645 139.2

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Brad Ziegler 0.4265
0.1607
(84.9)
0.0000
(105.4)
0.0000
(105.8)
Wade Davis 0.4648
0.0750
(118.9)
0.0000
(115.3)
0.0000
(115.8)
Tyler Clippard 0.5333
0.3269
(67.5)
0.0000
(133.9)
0.0000
(134.4)
Tony Watson 0.4359
0.2500
(67.8)
0.0000
(117.2)
0.0000
(117.8)
Dellin Betances 0.3143
0.0714
(95.2)
0.0000
(89.6)
0.0000
(90.2)
Pat Neshek 0.3521
0.0909
(75.9)
0.0000
(76.6)
0.0000
(77.1)
J.P. Howell 0.3971
0.1224
(61.9)
0.0000
(68.8)
0.0000
(69.1)
Jeurys Familia 0.3026
0.0588
(90.2)
0.0000
(80.9)
0.0000
(81.4)
Carlos Martinez 0.2982
0.1364
(76.5)
0.0000
(95.2)
0.0000
(95.9)
Will Smith 0.3846
0.1600
(74.6)
0.0000
(95.3)
0.0000
(95.8)
Joba Chamberlain 0.4203
0.1515
(80.2)
0.0000
(97.0)
0.0000
(97.4)
Adam Warren 0.3333
0.0667
(98.2)
0.0000
(91.3)
0.0000
(91.9)
Brian Wilson 0.3607
0.1000
(66.2)
0.0000
(68.9)
0.0000
(69.3)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Franklin Morales 0.1852 0.0000 96.2
2 David Robertson 0.3922 0.0000 92.2
3 Drew Smyly 0.2195 0.0357 91.1
4 Tanner Roark 0.1250 0.0000 70.8
5 Trevor Rosenthal 0.2826 0.0278 67.3
6 Evan Marshall 0.0519 0.3333 66.7
7 Zach Putnam 0.0714 0.3265 62.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Darren O'Day 0.0000 0.3676 85.7
2 Casey Fien 0.0000 0.3562 79.2
3 Bryan Shaw 0.0000 0.3000 77.8
4 Jonathan Broxton 0.0000 0.3710 73.8
5 Brett Cecil 0.0000 0.3636 73.0
6 Luke Gregerson 0.0000 0.3056 72.1
7 Kelvin Herrera 0.0000 0.2857 66.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Darren O'Day 0.0000 0.3676 86.1
2 Casey Fien 0.0000 0.3562 79.6
3 Bryan Shaw 0.0000 0.3000 78.3
4 Jonathan Broxton 0.0000 0.3710 74.2
5 Brett Cecil 0.0000 0.3636 73.4
6 Luke Gregerson 0.0000 0.3056 72.6
7 Roenis Elías 0.0519 0.0000 70.5

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jake Arrieta 2.5277
4.2832
(1049.1)
4.9245
(1464.6)
4.2615
(937.4)
4.6385
(1162.2)
Dallas Keuchel 2.9250
4.6710
(1372.9)
4.8111
(1514.7)
4.3291
(967.1)
5.0192
(1516.0)
Jim Johnson 7.0875
3.2100
(1032.1)
3.2432
(1014.1)
3.3964
(1025.2)
3.2500
(1066.6)
Justin Masterson 5.8756
3.5700
(1392.7)
3.8997
(1176.6)
3.8901
(1298.1)
3.7788
(1370.4)
Corey Kluber 2.4441
4.0582
(1490.4)
4.1147
(1577.7)
4.0667
(1346.0)
4.0248
(1295.9)
Clay Buchholz 5.3366
3.5376
(1360.4)
3.4589
(1392.3)
4.2556
(949.4)
3.6364
(1413.7)
Edwin Jackson 6.3341
4.1314
(1424.0)
4.3531
(1261.3)
4.2320
(1461.7)
3.9896
(1622.1)
Justin Verlander 4.5437
3.2508
(1196.4)
3.1439
(1260.3)
3.4566
(1155.7)
3.0734
(1507.7)
Garrett Richards 2.6146
4.1675
(1021.1)
4.1667
(1044.5)
4.4795
(1123.9)
4.4676
(1108.5)

Individual Misses for ERA

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 5.4249 3.6545 1185.8
2 Johnny Cueto 3.4788 2.2531 1132.9
3 Jon Lester 3.7817 2.4583 1129.7
4 A.J. Burnett 3.5287 4.5913 1037.3
5 Jacob Turner 4.2089 6.1327 987.3
6 Henderson Alvarez III 3.9578 2.6471 975.7
7 Félix Hernández 3.2483 2.1356 972.1
8 Aaron Brooks 5.2600 43.8750 927.9
9 Carlos Carrasco 4.3329 2.5522 917.1
10 Wade Davis 4.3333 1.0000 916.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 5.4633 2.7349 1681.7
2 Edinson Volquez 4.8363 3.0363 1446.9
3 Jon Lester 4.0514 2.4583 1399.8
4 Carlos Carrasco 4.7832 2.5522 1174.1
5 Henderson Alvarez III 4.1642 2.6471 1162.3
6 Robbie Ross Jr. 3.2243 6.2043 1091.9
7 Jacob Turner 3.9767 6.1327 1085.9
8 Félix Hernández 3.2815 2.1356 1034.6
9 Travis Wood 3.7140 5.0269 1034.4
10 Lance Lynn 3.9019 2.7398 996.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Johnny Cueto 3.7401 2.2531 1229.9
2 Jon Lester 4.0092 2.4583 1189.3
3 Robbie Ross Jr. 3.3549 6.2043 1115.6
4 Edinson Volquez 4.5647 3.0363 1068.9
5 A.J. Burnett 3.6675 4.5913 1057.4
6 Franklin Morales 3.9476 5.3747 1055.7
7 Chris Young 5.3804 3.6545 1044.9
8 Aaron Harang 4.8953 3.5677 981.5
9 Jarred Cosart 5.1529 3.6932 959.5
10 Aaron Brooks 4.8987 43.8750 940.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dellin Betances 6.2358 1.4000 1574.7
2 Collin McHugh 5.2500 2.7349 1421.9
3 Carlos Carrasco 5.0737 2.5522 1218.5
4 Travis Wood 3.8789 5.0269 1066.8
5 Robbie Ross Jr. 3.6000 6.2043 1030.1
6 Mike Minor 3.4051 4.7683 1007.2
7 Chris Young 5.3321 3.6545 1004.2
8 Jacob Turner 4.3484 6.1327 1003.2
9 Aaron Harang 4.9224 3.5677 995.7
10 Edinson Volquez 4.4809 3.0363 992.3

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Davenport Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Dellin Betances 0.7778
1.3778
(205.6)
1.3758
(205.6)
1.4383
(215.6)
1.9235
(379.7)
Johnny Cueto 0.9603
1.2304
(262.3)
1.1713
(207.5)
1.2507
(252.0)
1.1739
(174.2)
Jake Arrieta 0.9894
1.4061
(257.6)
1.3491
(223.9)
1.3837
(224.8)
1.4603
(269.3)
Jim Johnson 1.9500
1.1500
(209.6)
1.2312
(187.7)
1.2479
(192.0)
1.1806
(210.9)
Justin Masterson 1.6321
1.2571
(220.3)
1.2999
(193.7)
1.3303
(195.3)
1.2903
(221.5)
Justin Verlander 1.3981
1.1980
(176.1)
1.1783
(191.8)
1.1947
(206.7)
1.1352
(263.6)
Carlos Carrasco 0.9851
1.3143
(175.7)
1.4406
(243.6)
1.3576
(182.2)
1.4744
(241.8)
Garrett Richards 1.0375
1.2739
(162.2)
1.3721
(230.2)
1.4178
(238.7)
1.4317
(245.3)
Colby Lewis 1.5205
1.2100
(234.5)
1.2139
(229.9)
1.3398
(159.2)
1.3077
(186.8)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Davenport

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jeff Samardzija 1.3716 1.0653 271.8
2 Félix Hernández 1.1794 0.9153 243.5
3 Jason Hammel 1.4027 1.1229 202.1
4 Jorge De La Rosa 1.4823 1.2369 190.6
5 Clayton Kershaw 1.0991 0.8571 183.4
6 Dallas Keuchel 1.3822 1.1750 169.7
7 Corey Kluber 1.2646 1.0948 164.2
8 Julio Teheran 1.2541 1.0814 155.1
9 Ricky Nolasco 1.2919 1.5157 153.5
10 Danny Duffy 1.3599 1.1116 152.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 1.4696 1.0216 280.5
2 Dallas Keuchel 1.4683 1.1750 241.0
3 Félix Hernández 1.1743 0.9153 240.8
4 Travis Wood 1.2210 1.5317 238.7
5 Corey Kluber 1.3135 1.0948 212.8
6 Jeff Samardzija 1.3013 1.0653 211.9
7 Edinson Volquez 1.4824 1.2301 208.1
8 Phil Hughes 1.3588 1.1304 199.6
9 Jon Lester 1.3130 1.1017 191.4
10 Franklin Morales 1.3306 1.6230 185.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Jackson 1.3214 1.6422 220.8
2 Franklin Morales 1.3525 1.6230 192.9
3 Félix Hernández 1.1514 0.9153 189.8
4 Tyler Matzek 1.7685 1.3938 174.3
5 A.J. Burnett 1.2517 1.4087 173.1
6 Robbie Ross Jr. 1.2524 1.6979 172.9
7 Clayton Kershaw 1.1146 0.8571 171.8
8 Jon Lester 1.3231 1.1017 171.0
9 Tanner Roark 1.3335 1.0923 170.0
10 Corey Kluber 1.2986 1.0948 167.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 1.5076 1.0216 280.8
2 Trevor Bauer 1.8196 1.3791 270.7
3 Travis Wood 1.2711 1.5317 228.7
4 Edwin Jackson 1.3299 1.6422 218.1
5 Dallas Keuchel 1.4679 1.1750 210.6
6 Tyler Matzek 1.8270 1.3938 201.7
7 Mike Minor 1.1613 1.4381 196.9
8 Ricky Nolasco 1.2831 1.5157 184.2
9 Danny Duffy 1.4468 1.1116 183.6
10 Tanner Roark 1.3534 1.0923 182.6