2012 Projection Evaluation

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bryce Harper 1 597 596.0
2 Norichika Aoki 1 588 587.0
3 Yoenis Cespedes 1 540 539.0
4 Brett Gardner 551 37 514.0
5 Kosuke Fukudome 535 51 484.0
6 Alex Gonzalez 550 89 461.0
7 Jason Bartlett 555 98 457.0
8 Aubrey Huff 545 95 450.0
9 Lance Berkman 530 97 433.0
10 Hideki Matsui 533 103 430.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Gardner 621 37 583.6
2 Lance Berkman 582 97 484.6
3 Jason Bartlett 561 98 462.9
4 Alex Gonzalez 548 89 458.5
5 Carl Crawford 578 125 453.2
6 Mat Gamel 522 75 447.4
7 Danny Valencia 598 161 437.1
8 Hideki Matsui 537 103 434.4
9 Aubrey Huff 520 95 425.4
10 Troy Tulowitzki 626 203 422.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 681 16 665.0
2 Juan Diaz 643 17 626.0
3 Lars Anderson 632 8 624.0
4 Charlie Culberson 646 23 623.0
5 Blake Tekotte 637 15 622.0
6 L.J. Hoes 623 1 622.0
7 Che-Hsuan Lin 628 12 616.0
8 Brandon Allen 629 22 607.0
9 Carlos Triunfel 628 24 604.0
10 Conor Gillaspie 616 20 596.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mike Trout 0.4107
0.3079
(66.9)
0.3215
(61.0)
0.3282
(46.4)
Brandon Moss 0.4039
0.2919
(33.7)
0.3100
(29.6)
0.2927
(30.0)
Austin Jackson 0.3703
0.3122
(37.1)
0.3115
(40.2)
0.3039
(34.8)
Aaron Hill 0.3781
0.3103
(46.7)
0.3171
(45.0)
0.3221
(30.8)
Adrián González 0.3481
0.3934
(29.6)
0.4026
(32.9)
0.3909
(36.0)
Buster Posey 0.4096
0.3435
(41.5)
0.3567
(36.1)
0.3488
(31.0)
Alex Rios 0.3629
0.3042
(38.9)
0.3162
(33.9)
0.3064
(29.8)
Andrew McCutchen 0.4084
0.3522
(39.2)
0.3537
(41.1)
0.3549
(29.3)
Ian Desmond 0.3629
0.2962
(37.6)
0.2985
(38.7)
0.2946
(32.0)
Edwin Encarnación 0.4015
0.3325
(45.7)
0.3424
(42.2)
0.3413
(32.4)
Dustin Ackley 0.2777
0.3281
(32.3)
0.3268
(28.6)
0.3329
(43.4)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chase Headley 0.3242 0.3785 39.3
2 Michael Young 0.3536 0.2987 34.5
3 Melky Cabrera 0.3263 0.3886 32.2
4 Ryan Ludwick 0.3150 0.3746 29.1
5 Michael Saunders 0.2701 0.3199 28.6
6 Yadier Molina 0.3270 0.3756 28.5
7 Yunel Escobar 0.3298 0.2815 28.2
8 Chris Davis 0.3072 0.3553 28.1
9 Yoenis Cespedes 0.3206 0.3706 28.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chase Headley 0.3281 0.3785 39.7
2 Yadier Molina 0.3186 0.3756 35.6
3 Melky Cabrera 0.3238 0.3886 35.6
4 Carlos Ruiz 0.3284 0.4020 33.6
5 Adam LaRoche 0.3190 0.3644 33.4
6 Albert Pujols 0.4233 0.3676 33.1
7 Robinson Canó 0.3599 0.3985 31.3
8 Justin Ruggiano 0.2975 0.3879 30.9
9 A.J. Pierzynski 0.3044 0.3537 28.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Hosmer 0.3577 0.2939 44.1
2 J.J. Hardy 0.3280 0.2896 34.4
3 Casey Kotchman 0.3278 0.2705 33.6
4 Yunel Escobar 0.3261 0.2815 33.2
5 Albert Pujols 0.4057 0.3676 32.2
6 Ian Kinsler 0.3596 0.3265 31.5
7 Shane Victorino 0.3417 0.3062 30.2
8 Michael Young 0.3326 0.2987 28.5
9 Brennan Boesch 0.3352 0.2885 28.5

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Curtis Granderson 0.2851
0.2202
(37.8)
0.2271
(29.7)
0.2266
(40.1)
Jason Kubel 0.2644
0.1969
(33.0)
0.1884
(35.1)
0.1866
(44.5)
Prince Fielder 0.1217
0.1771
(44.9)
0.1692
(42.8)
0.1791
(39.5)
Cody Ransom 0.3865
0.2110
(46.8)
0.1920
(50.7)
0.2716
(32.5)
Jason Kipnis 0.1622
0.1986
(30.9)
0.2018
(36.4)
0.2090
(31.3)
Josh Hamilton 0.2547
0.1797
(41.6)
0.1781
(39.5)
0.1800
(47.6)
David Wright 0.1672
0.2229
(43.8)
0.2135
(40.8)
0.2142
(31.4)
Bryan LaHair 0.3263
0.2009
(44.0)
0.2331
(29.9)
0.2324
(35.7)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Norichika Aoki 0.1920 0.0935 63.6
2 Michael Brantley 0.1524 0.0920 42.7
3 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.1920 0.3121 34.7
4 Lucas Duda 0.1795 0.2614 33.2
5 Marco Scutaro 0.1104 0.0717 33.0
6 Steve Lombardozzi 0.1757 0.1106 31.1
7 Brett Jackson 0.1920 0.4155 30.4
8 Michael Young 0.1443 0.1075 30.2
9 Yonder Alonso 0.2016 0.1632 29.7
10 Brandon Moss 0.1942 0.3041 29.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.2480 0.1685 34.6
2 Adam LaRoche 0.2496 0.2133 32.9
3 Logan Forsythe 0.2387 0.1629 31.6
4 Lucas Duda 0.1782 0.2614 31.5
5 Jayson Werth 0.2423 0.1657 31.4
6 Michael Young 0.1392 0.1075 30.1
7 Michael Brantley 0.1235 0.0920 28.1
8 Joaquin Arias 0.1920 0.1279 27.1
9 Will Venable 0.2423 0.2000 26.7
10 Mike Moustakas 0.1441 0.2020 26.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2902 0.2215 40.2
2 Carlos Beltrán 0.1432 0.2003 35.5
3 A.J. Pierzynski 0.0854 0.1500 33.7
4 A.J. Ellis 0.1463 0.2119 33.2
5 Mike Moustakas 0.1506 0.2020 31.7
6 Jimmy Rollins 0.0930 0.1373 31.1
7 Anthony Rizzo 0.2527 0.1685 30.9
8 Logan Forsythe 0.2505 0.1629 30.6
9 Mike Napoli 0.2302 0.2998 29.1
10 Mark Reynolds 0.3495 0.2955 28.9

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Miguel Cabrera 0.0947
0.1297
(21.7)
0.1343
(22.8)
0.1385
(32.9)
Adrián González 0.0614
0.1248
(40.7)
0.1272
(40.3)
0.1177
(40.9)
Alexei Ramirez 0.0258
0.0682
(24.0)
0.0667
(21.1)
0.0607
(23.8)
Dan Uggla 0.1492
0.1087
(28.0)
0.1077
(30.6)
0.1030
(26.9)
Yunel Escobar 0.0576
0.0982
(22.3)
0.1019
(22.7)
0.0972
(26.2)
Albert Pujols 0.0776
0.1237
(28.3)
0.1346
(33.5)
0.1205
(31.0)
Miguel Montero 0.1274
0.0843
(26.9)
0.0883
(26.4)
0.0870
(21.2)
Joey Votto 0.1979
0.1362
(31.1)
0.1433
(29.2)
0.1479
(22.1)
Edwin Encarnación 0.1304
0.0857
(31.3)
0.0929
(28.6)
0.0868
(25.9)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joe Mauer 0.1059 0.1404 24.6
2 Buster Posey 0.0783 0.1131 23.6
3 Marco Scutaro 0.0938 0.0586 21.4
4 Austin Jackson 0.0779 0.1086 21.3
5 Jemile Weeks 0.0606 0.0978 21.0
6 Chase Headley 0.0980 0.1230 20.2
7 John Buck 0.0774 0.1231 19.7
8 Mike Trout 0.0786 0.1049 19.3
9 Adam Dunn 0.1361 0.1618 19.2
10 Robinson Canó 0.0641 0.0875 19.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Heyward 0.1350 0.0891 25.3
2 B.J. Upton 0.1174 0.0711 24.9
3 Robinson Canó 0.0637 0.0875 21.5
4 Austin Jackson 0.0822 0.1086 20.5
5 Joe Mauer 0.1161 0.1404 20.0
6 Jemile Weeks 0.0660 0.0978 19.8
7 John Buck 0.0811 0.1231 19.5
8 David Freese 0.0735 0.1005 19.3
9 Buster Posey 0.0897 0.1131 18.5
10 Ian Kinsler 0.1142 0.0821 18.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Heyward 0.1311 0.0891 29.6
2 B.J. Upton 0.1133 0.0711 28.9
3 Ian Kinsler 0.1084 0.0821 21.8
4 Jesus Montero 0.0881 0.0524 21.6
5 Derek Norris 0.1780 0.0905 21.1
6 Dustin Ackley 0.1157 0.0883 20.6
7 Marco Scutaro 0.0844 0.0586 20.0
8 Prince Fielder 0.1483 0.1232 19.7
9 Dustin Pedroia 0.1044 0.0770 19.2
10 Hanley Ramirez 0.1051 0.0810 18.4

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Carlos Pena 0.0217
0.0108
(6.7)
0.0113
(6.5)
0.0113
(6.5)
Hunter Pence 0.0102
0.0017
(6.1)
0.0021
(5.9)
0.0015
(6.3)
Adam Dunn 0.0015
0.0099
(5.2)
0.0096
(4.9)
0.0092
(4.7)
Kevin Youkilis 0.0334
0.0222
(5.9)
0.0237
(5.2)
0.0240
(5.0)
Jon Jay 0.0299
0.0122
(9.0)
0.0117
(9.4)
0.0144
(8.0)
Carlos Ruiz 0.0380
0.0148
(9.9)
0.0155
(9.7)
0.0165
(9.2)
Miguel Montero 0.0209
0.0098
(6.6)
0.0112
(5.9)
0.0109
(6.0)
Corey Hart 0.0177
0.0093
(5.4)
0.0096
(5.3)
0.0103
(4.9)
Sean Rodríguez 0.0088
0.0260
(5.8)
0.0241
(5.1)
0.0300
(7.1)
Jason Heyward 0.0031
0.0118
(5.5)
0.0116
(5.2)
0.0122
(5.7)
Norichika Aoki 0.0221
0.0083
(8.3)
0.0069
(9.2)
0.0122
(6.1)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Harrison 0.0032 0.0254 6.2
2 Tyler Greene 0.0220 0.0030 6.2
3 Edwin Encarnación 0.0080 0.0171 6.1
4 Scott Moore 0.0048 0.0307 6.0
5 Alex Rodriguez 0.0087 0.0189 5.6
6 Chris Davis 0.0031 0.0125 5.4
7 Craig Gentry 0.0179 0.0372 5.3
8 Alejandro De Aza 0.0069 0.0154 5.1
9 Prince Fielder 0.0177 0.0246 5.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Daniel Nava 0.0083 0.0284 6.5
2 Buster Posey 0.0129 0.0033 5.5
3 Craig Gentry 0.0172 0.0372 5.5
4 Colby Rasmus 0.0030 0.0112 5.4
5 Alex Gordon 0.0120 0.0042 5.3
6 Scott Moore 0.0083 0.0307 5.2
7 Edwin Encarnación 0.0101 0.0171 4.8
8 Prince Fielder 0.0182 0.0246 4.8
9 Justin Upton 0.0161 0.0080 4.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Colby Rasmus 0.0017 0.0112 6.2
2 Buster Posey 0.0128 0.0033 5.6
3 Dan Uggla 0.0079 0.0159 5.3
4 Justin Upton 0.0165 0.0080 5.1
5 Jordan Pacheco 0.0161 0.0059 4.9
6 Travis Hafner 0.0162 0.0342 4.8
7 Alex Gordon 0.0113 0.0042 4.8
8 Alejandro De Aza 0.0076 0.0154 4.8
9 Tyler Greene 0.0178 0.0030 4.7

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mike Trout 0.0703
0.0400
(17.3)
0.0329
(22.4)
0.0316
(20.1)
Brandon Moss 0.1186
0.0270
(26.2)
0.0452
(21.1)
0.0441
(19.9)
Chase Headley 0.0686
0.0237
(29.1)
0.0272
(27.3)
0.0255
(25.1)
Adrián González 0.0342
0.0615
(20.9)
0.0656
(23.1)
0.0655
(26.4)
A.J. Pierzynski 0.0665
0.0240
(20.4)
0.0230
(21.5)
0.0211
(19.9)
Ian Desmond 0.0623
0.0233
(19.6)
0.0242
(19.6)
0.0227
(17.7)
Carlos Beltrán 0.0748
0.0427
(17.9)
0.0428
(18.4)
0.0420
(15.8)
Josh Hamilton 0.1051
0.0594
(27.0)
0.0593
(27.7)
0.0565
(26.3)
Edwin Encarnación 0.0923
0.0511
(24.5)
0.0521
(24.4)
0.0531
(20.6)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Dunn 0.0775 0.1277 30.5
2 Chris Davis 0.0481 0.0946 24.3
3 Pedro Alvarez 0.0458 0.0862 21.8
4 Curtis Granderson 0.0711 0.1051 21.1
5 Josh Reddick 0.0346 0.0688 20.9
6 Wilin Rosario 0.0422 0.0930 20.3
7 Chris Carter 0.0375 0.1159 19.6
8 Ike Davis 0.0476 0.0840 19.4
9 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0805 0.1205 18.5
10 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.0500 0.0926 17.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Dunn 0.0874 0.1277 24.7
2 Curtis Granderson 0.0679 0.1051 23.9
3 Justin Upton 0.0669 0.0387 19.1
4 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.0487 0.0926 18.6
5 Albert Pujols 0.0796 0.0559 17.4
6 Jason Kubel 0.0505 0.0831 17.3
7 Andrew McCutchen 0.0388 0.0665 17.2
8 Carlos Pena 0.0854 0.0597 16.7
9 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0770 0.0509 16.6
10 Mark Reynolds 0.1052 0.0767 16.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Pena 0.0893 0.0597 22.1
2 Mark Reynolds 0.1094 0.0767 21.5
3 Brett Lawrie 0.0574 0.0267 20.3
4 Justin Upton 0.0636 0.0387 20.2
5 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0767 0.0509 19.4
6 Alex Gordon 0.0473 0.0277 19.3
7 Nelson Cruz 0.0763 0.0535 19.3
8 Albert Pujols 0.0755 0.0559 18.0
9 Carlos Lee 0.0385 0.0178 17.2
10 Josh Reddick 0.0366 0.0688 16.8

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mike Trout 0.3829
0.2760
(68.1)
0.2983
(52.6)
0.3174
(41.4)
Jemile Weeks 0.2500
0.3303
(41.1)
0.3026
(28.0)
0.3073
(29.7)
Buster Posey 0.3675
0.3080
(36.2)
0.3107
(33.3)
0.3171
(30.3)
Danny Espinosa 0.3308
0.2841
(30.6)
0.2815
(31.0)
0.2861
(29.0)
Andrew McCutchen 0.3747
0.3055
(46.4)
0.2997
(49.0)
0.3045
(46.8)
Casey Kotchman 0.2315
0.2907
(29.7)
0.2865
(28.6)
0.2918
(30.5)
Tyler Colvin 0.3537
0.2565
(43.8)
0.2784
(33.1)
0.2874
(29.7)
Melky Cabrera 0.3785
0.3043
(37.1)
0.2984
(39.0)
0.3071
(35.5)
Ike Davis 0.2464
0.3182
(42.1)
0.3160
(41.9)
0.3169
(41.6)
Alcides Escobar 0.3386
0.2758
(40.5)
0.2899
(30.1)
0.2952
(27.7)
Torii Hunter 0.3882
0.3061
(47.8)
0.2965
(52.2)
0.2931
(55.1)
Eric Hosmer 0.2552
0.3062
(30.7)
0.3044
(30.7)
0.3282
(44.1)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Hill 0.2568 0.3160 39.4
2 Dustin Ackley 0.3199 0.2643 37.3
3 Justin Ruggiano 0.2921 0.3969 33.4
4 Alex Rios 0.2725 0.3225 31.8
5 Brandon Belt 0.2836 0.3510 31.7
6 Adam Dunn 0.2939 0.2464 31.0
7 Brian McCann 0.2938 0.2341 29.2
8 Chris Nelson 0.2936 0.3711 29.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Miguel Montero 0.3006 0.3615 33.7
2 Alex Gordon 0.3080 0.3564 33.3
3 Joey Votto 0.3336 0.4043 32.5
4 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2640 0.3260 32.3
5 Dexter Fowler 0.3221 0.3832 31.2
6 Aaron Hill 0.2694 0.3160 29.6
7 Justin Ruggiano 0.3023 0.3969 29.5
8 Russell Martin 0.2767 0.2208 28.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joey Votto 0.3299 0.4043 35.0
2 Miguel Montero 0.3016 0.3615 33.9
3 Derek Jeter 0.3013 0.3436 30.8
4 Jordan Pacheco 0.2838 0.3430 29.5
5 Joe Mauer 0.3189 0.3636 28.2
6 Colby Rasmus 0.3026 0.2581 28.2
7 Brian McCann 0.2906 0.2341 27.8
8 Alex Rios 0.2784 0.3225 27.8

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mark Trumbo 0.2548
0.2023
(30.3)
0.1945
(29.1)
0.2145
(23.3)
Mike Trout 0.2947
0.2031
(58.1)
0.2160
(43.6)
0.2413
(33.7)
Billy Butler 0.2720
0.2328
(26.1)
0.2174
(29.9)
0.2335
(25.7)
Brendan Ryan 0.1688
0.2219
(25.3)
0.2138
(26.1)
0.2228
(25.7)
Andrew McCutchen 0.2943
0.2172
(51.4)
0.2065
(51.9)
0.2138
(53.7)
Jeff Keppinger 0.2857
0.2204
(27.0)
0.2146
(25.3)
0.2162
(28.8)
Miguel Montero 0.2828
0.2210
(35.0)
0.2047
(38.7)
0.2127
(39.8)
Melky Cabrera 0.2890
0.2255
(31.4)
0.2214
(28.5)
0.2220
(33.3)
Dexter Fowler 0.2928
0.2159
(40.4)
0.2071
(39.8)
0.2165
(40.1)
Jay Bruce 0.1772
0.2202
(27.6)
0.2116
(28.4)
0.2273
(32.0)
Russell Martin 0.1623
0.2236
(30.1)
0.2166
(31.4)
0.2232
(29.8)
Torii Hunter 0.3239
0.2347
(51.7)
0.2189
(55.2)
0.2262
(56.7)
Ike Davis 0.1719
0.2318
(35.4)
0.2115
(29.3)
0.2222
(29.7)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alcides Escobar 0.2175 0.2657 30.8
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.1768 0.2529 27.7
3 Zack Cozart 0.2405 0.1963 26.9
4 Jemile Weeks 0.2416 0.1901 26.7
5 Ichiro Suzuki 0.2766 0.2373 26.5
6 Omar Infante 0.2550 0.2106 26.5
7 Freddie Freeman 0.2465 0.2065 25.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ichiro Suzuki 0.2779 0.2373 33.9
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.1625 0.2529 29.4
3 Yoenis Cespedes 0.1839 0.2438 26.6
4 Danny Espinosa 0.1811 0.2316 26.2
5 Adrian Beltré 0.1985 0.2485 25.8
6 Jonny Gomes 0.1954 0.2830 25.6
7 Paul Konerko 0.2079 0.2606 25.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Jeter 0.2445 0.2889 32.4
2 Eric Hosmer 0.2490 0.1995 30.0
3 Alex Rodriguez 0.2167 0.2695 27.6
4 John Buck 0.2247 0.1645 24.2
5 Jonny Gomes 0.2105 0.2830 23.9
6 Donovan Solano 0.2174 0.2918 23.3
7 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.2069 0.2802 22.8

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Denard Span 0.0835
0.0426
(23.5)
0.0507
(23.5)
0.0437
(21.8)
Aramis Ramirez 0.1075
0.0665
(26.1)
0.0782
(23.8)
0.0716
(21.7)
Kevin Youkilis 0.0478
0.0932
(23.0)
0.0983
(21.4)
0.0892
(21.8)
Mike Napoli 0.0439
0.0848
(16.9)
0.0965
(18.4)
0.0849
(17.7)
Shin-Soo Choo 0.0993
0.0707
(19.9)
0.0822
(17.6)
0.0689
(19.9)
Joey Votto 0.1588
0.0925
(31.7)
0.0982
(32.8)
0.0863
(33.8)
Michael Saunders 0.0866
0.0526
(19.0)
0.0629
(17.8)
0.0537
(17.4)
Justin Upton 0.0569
0.0829
(16.1)
0.0987
(21.0)
0.0850
(18.6)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0753 0.1153 23.7
2 Brian Bogusevic 0.0900 0.0356 21.8
3 Buster Posey 0.0600 0.0931 20.4
4 Justin Ruggiano 0.0618 0.1186 18.3
5 Jason Kipnis 0.0733 0.0461 18.0
6 Aaron Hill 0.0617 0.0880 17.8
7 Jay Bruce 0.0663 0.0926 16.9
8 Danny Espinosa 0.0696 0.0941 16.4
9 Michael Cuddyer 0.0709 0.1119 16.3
10 Albert Pujols 0.0747 0.0986 16.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.1241 0.0575 21.4
2 Norichika Aoki 0.0531 0.0792 20.3
3 Colby Rasmus 0.0929 0.0526 19.9
4 Michael Cuddyer 0.0731 0.1119 18.6
5 Justin Smoak 0.0816 0.0394 18.1
6 Jesus Montero 0.0891 0.0490 17.5
7 Nelson Cruz 0.0876 0.1059 17.2
8 Michael Brantley 0.0556 0.0749 16.9
9 Casey Kotchman 0.0718 0.0296 16.9
10 Aaron Hill 0.0712 0.0880 16.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Colby Rasmus 0.0807 0.0526 18.5
2 Jesus Montero 0.0805 0.0490 18.2
3 Justin Smoak 0.0701 0.0394 17.2
4 Casey Kotchman 0.0623 0.0296 17.1
5 Buster Posey 0.0639 0.0931 16.9
6 Norichika Aoki 0.0495 0.0792 16.6
7 Anthony Rizzo 0.1003 0.0575 16.3
8 Albert Pujols 0.0728 0.0986 16.3
9 Daniel Descalso 0.0698 0.0337 16.0
10 Nelson Cruz 0.0796 0.1059 15.9

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Curtis Granderson 0.0109
0.0191
(5.5)
0.0191
(5.7)
0.0211
(6.0)
Bryce Harper 0.0227
0.0074
(9.2)
0.0084
(8.5)
0.0089
(9.0)
Todd Frazier 0.0197
0.0055
(6.7)
0.0043
(7.1)
0.0080
(6.1)
Aaron Hill 0.0120
0.0025
(6.5)
0.0028
(6.1)
0.0045
(5.9)
Elvis Andrus 0.0164
0.0085
(5.7)
0.0082
(5.7)
0.0074
(7.4)
Alex Rios 0.0162
0.0049
(7.4)
0.0056
(6.7)
0.0064
(7.2)
Quintin Berry 0.0278
0.0074
(6.8)
0.0074
(6.7)
0.0074
(7.2)
Gerardo Parra 0.0065
0.0193
(5.5)
0.0192
(5.5)
0.0221
(6.1)
Melky Cabrera 0.0256
0.0064
(9.7)
0.0079
(8.8)
0.0104
(8.3)
Brett Lawrie 0.0075
0.0198
(6.5)
0.0231
(8.4)
0.0226
(7.4)
Daniel Descalso 0.0236
0.0105
(5.6)
0.0068
(7.1)
0.0100
(6.4)
Ángel Pagán 0.0296
0.0150
(9.7)
0.0169
(8.3)
0.0173
(9.0)
Starling Marte 0.0517
0.0074
(8.1)
0.0115
(7.3)
0.0204
(5.9)
Dustin Ackley 0.0042
0.0184
(9.4)
0.0144
(6.8)
0.0184
(8.6)
Orlando Hudson 0.0383
0.0118
(7.5)
0.0087
(8.3)
0.0112
(8.0)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Trout 0.0052 0.0202 9.6
2 Tyler Colvin 0.0174 0.0340 7.6
3 Shane Victorino 0.0239 0.0136 6.8
4 Stephen Drew 0.0224 0.0048 5.7
5 Starlin Castro 0.0142 0.0223 5.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Bourn 0.0130 0.0215 5.9
2 Jamey Carroll 0.0130 0.0024 5.7
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0149 0.0037 5.6
4 Tyler Colvin 0.0218 0.0340 5.5
5 Danny Espinosa 0.0131 0.0051 5.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Kipnis 0.0206 0.0084 7.3
2 Shane Victorino 0.0243 0.0136 6.3
3 Stephen Drew 0.0241 0.0048 5.9
4 Yoenis Cespedes 0.0042 0.0137 5.9
5 Danny Espinosa 0.0152 0.0051 5.7

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mike Trout 0.2019
0.1286
(47.6)
0.1303
(47.9)
0.1622
(23.8)
Bryce Harper 0.1642
0.1164
(29.3)
0.1075
(35.9)
0.0956
(39.5)
Wilin Rosario 0.1573
0.1139
(19.0)
0.1161
(19.0)
0.0920
(26.8)
Austin Jackson 0.1669
0.1380
(18.6)
0.1369
(20.6)
0.1246
(24.6)
Albert Pujols 0.1269
0.1593
(20.9)
0.1636
(22.3)
0.1549
(20.4)
Jesus Montero 0.0832
0.1193
(19.3)
0.1218
(19.4)
0.1148
(18.8)
Melky Cabrera 0.1677
0.1250
(22.0)
0.1183
(26.4)
0.1218
(21.8)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Freddie Freeman 0.1076 0.1468 25.0
2 Shane Victorino 0.1429 0.1081 22.3
3 Chase Headley 0.1061 0.1359 21.7
4 A.J. Pierzynski 0.0918 0.1308 20.9
5 Justin Upton 0.1398 0.1704 20.0
6 J.D. Martinez 0.1215 0.0774 18.8
7 José Reyes 0.1465 0.1201 18.0
8 Howie Kendrick 0.1275 0.0960 18.0
9 Michael Saunders 0.0976 0.1284 17.7
10 Yunel Escobar 0.1255 0.0954 17.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrián González 0.1575 0.1096 30.4
2 Carlos Gómez 0.1000 0.1593 28.3
3 Yunel Escobar 0.1396 0.0954 24.8
4 Andrew McCutchen 0.1277 0.1590 23.4
5 Chris Denorfia 0.0891 0.1466 23.3
6 Darwin Barney 0.0882 0.1241 23.2
7 Jon Jay 0.0968 0.1394 23.1
8 Norichika Aoki 0.1027 0.1378 22.6
9 Freddie Freeman 0.1167 0.1468 20.8
10 Prince Fielder 0.1528 0.1203 20.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hanley Ramirez 0.1541 0.1184 25.4
2 Shane Victorino 0.1417 0.1081 24.0
3 Kyle Seager 0.1260 0.0952 21.6
4 Howie Kendrick 0.1296 0.0960 21.4
5 Josh Hamilton 0.1273 0.1619 20.5
6 A.J. Pierzynski 0.0894 0.1308 20.3
7 David Ortiz 0.1147 0.1697 20.2
8 Michael Brantley 0.1338 0.1034 19.9
9 Delmon Young 0.1191 0.0888 19.9
10 J.D. Martinez 0.1201 0.0774 19.8

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Carlos Pena 0.1017
0.1410
(23.6)
0.1412
(23.3)
0.1407
(26.6)
Chase Headley 0.1645
0.0980
(46.5)
0.0858
(55.5)
0.0986
(42.4)
Jemile Weeks 0.0391
0.0909
(26.4)
0.0926
(27.0)
0.0822
(24.7)
Kyle Seager 0.1321
0.0877
(28.9)
0.0959
(24.0)
0.0909
(23.4)
Jeff Francoeur 0.0813
0.1254
(26.6)
0.1294
(28.7)
0.1216
(27.5)
A.J. Pierzynski 0.1481
0.1020
(23.9)
0.1033
(23.6)
0.0976
(23.5)
Carlos Ruiz 0.1615
0.1055
(23.6)
0.0862
(32.0)
0.0991
(24.1)
Josh Willingham 0.1789
0.1404
(23.7)
0.1384
(25.3)
0.1357
(23.3)
Zack Cozart 0.0583
0.1036
(27.2)
0.0961
(22.2)
0.0924
(23.6)
Edwin Encarnación 0.1708
0.1155
(35.6)
0.1324
(25.2)
0.1219
(28.1)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Rodriguez 0.1688 0.1078 32.3
2 Miguel Cabrera 0.1576 0.1994 29.1
3 Chris Davis 0.1049 0.1512 26.0
4 Josh Hamilton 0.1606 0.2013 25.9
5 Buster Posey 0.1275 0.1689 25.2
6 Dayan Viciedo 0.0975 0.1436 25.1
7 John Mayberry Jr. 0.1461 0.0960 24.0
8 Jarrod Dyson 0.0983 0.0273 23.4
9 Freddie Freeman 0.1150 0.1516 22.7
10 Wilin Rosario 0.1139 0.1667 22.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Allen Craig 0.1150 0.1790 33.3
2 Carlos Beltrán 0.1114 0.1567 28.5
3 Jonathan Lucroy 0.0928 0.1676 26.1
4 Michael Young 0.1429 0.1029 25.6
5 Alfonso Soriano 0.1350 0.1756 25.4
6 Shane Victorino 0.1209 0.0826 25.1
7 Chris Johnson 0.0991 0.1439 24.0
8 Chris Heisey 0.1474 0.0827 24.0
9 Justin Upton 0.1440 0.1067 23.0
10 Brandon Inge 0.0945 0.1631 22.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Rodriguez 0.1738 0.1078 37.7
2 Miguel Cabrera 0.1507 0.1994 30.3
3 Jose Altuve 0.0965 0.0587 27.1
4 Will Middlebrooks 0.0944 0.1888 25.5
5 Josh Reddick 0.0833 0.1263 25.4
6 Mike Trout 0.0855 0.1299 25.0
7 Josh Hamilton 0.1582 0.2013 24.0
8 James Loney 0.1311 0.0882 22.4
9 Wilin Rosario 0.1104 0.1667 21.7
10 Buster Posey 0.1284 0.1689 21.4

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Carlos Gómez 0.3936
0.2000
(86.8)
0.2272
(73.5)
0.2588
(64.0)
Everth Cabrera 0.3667
0.1754
(85.2)
0.2267
(61.1)
0.2736
(44.8)
Michael Bourn 0.2111
0.2775
(47.8)
0.2749
(47.6)
0.2995
(57.4)
Elvis Andrus 0.1055
0.1714
(47.9)
0.1797
(55.5)
0.1814
(49.1)
Omar Infante 0.1360
0.0395
(55.9)
0.0288
(60.8)
0.0299
(66.4)
Alexi Casilla 0.2958
0.1443
(48.9)
0.1321
(52.1)
0.1373
(53.9)
Emilio Bonifácio 0.3704
0.1788
(52.1)
0.1666
(54.8)
0.1962
(49.6)
Jordan Schafer 0.3034
0.1563
(52.4)
0.1670
(47.7)
0.1765
(48.1)
Quintin Berry 0.2360
0.0738
(53.0)
0.0738
(52.2)
0.0738
(55.8)
Tony Campana 0.5882
0.2778
(59.3)
0.2957
(55.4)
0.3284
(51.2)
Jason Kipnis 0.1685
0.0882
(52.9)
0.0738
(61.0)
0.0861
(59.9)
Dewayne Wise 0.3800
0.1455
(55.7)
0.1591
(51.9)
0.1837
(48.5)
Norichika Aoki 0.1935
0.0738
(69.5)
0.0521
(80.9)
0.0556
(85.1)
Shane Victorino 0.2378
0.1449
(60.8)
0.1267
(71.4)
0.1429
(67.8)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Trout 0.0938 0.2579 103.9
2 Darin Mastroianni 0.0600 0.4038 63.7
3 Jose Altuve 0.1013 0.1964 59.0
4 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2235 0.4000 57.7
5 Alcides Escobar 0.1278 0.2059 49.6
6 Anthony Gose 0.0738 0.3333 48.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alexei Ramirez 0.0516 0.1429 54.2
2 Anthony Gose 0.0738 0.3333 48.3
3 Michael Saunders 0.0974 0.1810 44.1
4 Jeff Francoeur 0.0994 0.0313 43.4
5 Michael Brantley 0.1396 0.0727 43.1
6 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2678 0.4000 42.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alexei Ramirez 0.0566 0.1429 57.8
2 Matt Kemp 0.1939 0.0763 49.8
3 Martín Prado 0.0278 0.0904 47.9
4 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0497 0.1224 46.7
5 Michael Saunders 0.1034 0.1810 46.7
6 John Mayberry Jr. 0.1089 0.0094 44.4

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mike Trout 0.3256
0.2421
(54.9)
0.2544
(46.7)
0.2666
(35.1)
Buster Posey 0.3358
0.2830
(33.8)
0.2865
(31.3)
0.2872
(27.2)
Alex Rios 0.3041
0.2530
(34.3)
0.2622
(28.1)
0.2589
(26.4)
Andrew McCutchen 0.3272
0.2726
(38.4)
0.2715
(38.8)
0.2735
(33.4)
Melky Cabrera 0.3464
0.2816
(33.7)
0.2783
(35.1)
0.2845
(29.0)
Torii Hunter 0.3127
0.2734
(24.4)
0.2615
(31.1)
0.2612
(27.7)
Eric Hosmer 0.2318
0.2817
(28.4)
0.2808
(28.1)
0.3040
(45.6)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Hill 0.2465 0.3021 38.8
2 Jemile Weeks 0.2883 0.2207 33.3
3 Tyler Colvin 0.2236 0.2905 31.3
4 Alcides Escobar 0.2505 0.2926 28.8
5 Anthony Rizzo 0.2129 0.2849 27.4
6 Dustin Ackley 0.2676 0.2257 26.4
7 Brendan Ryan 0.2511 0.1941 25.7
8 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.2682 0.2296 24.5
9 Hunter Pence 0.2907 0.2528 24.4
10 Andy Dirks 0.2542 0.3217 24.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Hill 0.2563 0.3021 31.9
2 Carlos Ruiz 0.2610 0.3253 27.9
3 Derek Jeter 0.2809 0.3163 27.6
4 Ike Davis 0.2745 0.2274 26.4
5 Alex Gordon 0.2605 0.2944 25.9
6 Adrian Beltré 0.2849 0.3212 25.1
7 Jonathan Lucroy 0.2506 0.3196 24.6
8 Prince Fielder 0.2800 0.3133 24.4
9 Justin Ruggiano 0.2388 0.3125 24.2
10 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2496 0.2916 23.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Jeter 0.2675 0.3163 33.1
2 Dustin Ackley 0.2607 0.2257 26.0
3 Brendan Ryan 0.2447 0.1941 25.7
4 Jemile Weeks 0.2669 0.2207 25.7
5 Jeff Francoeur 0.2727 0.2353 25.0
6 Casey Kotchman 0.2749 0.2289 25.0
7 Prince Fielder 0.2745 0.3133 24.0
8 J.J. Hardy 0.2677 0.2383 23.9
9 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.2600 0.2296 23.3
10 Austin Jackson 0.2594 0.3002 22.7

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mike Trout 0.3991
0.3082
(61.5)
0.3294
(49.4)
0.3383
(35.1)
Austin Jackson 0.3772
0.3289
(33.1)
0.3297
(34.1)
0.3215
(30.8)
Hanley Ramirez 0.3223
0.3678
(26.8)
0.3736
(29.1)
0.3649
(32.3)
Adrián González 0.3436
0.3933
(30.3)
0.3955
(30.3)
0.3836
(31.4)
Buster Posey 0.4082
0.3459
(41.3)
0.3587
(34.9)
0.3578
(27.2)
Yunel Escobar 0.2995
0.3560
(31.1)
0.3593
(31.7)
0.3508
(34.8)
Albert Pujols 0.3433
0.3915
(28.7)
0.4031
(35.0)
0.3881
(33.9)
Casey Kotchman 0.2797
0.3365
(25.7)
0.3438
(28.2)
0.3417
(33.9)
Miguel Montero 0.3909
0.3425
(30.8)
0.3379
(34.8)
0.3355
(28.4)
Melky Cabrera 0.3900
0.3322
(31.6)
0.3292
(34.3)
0.3295
(27.4)
Joey Votto 0.4737
0.4054
(35.0)
0.4024
(37.5)
0.4022
(31.2)
Edwin Encarnación 0.3835
0.3234
(42.2)
0.3328
(37.6)
0.3306
(30.4)
Dustin Ackley 0.2939
0.3392
(26.7)
0.3463
(30.0)
0.3481
(40.2)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Hill 0.3031 0.3598 41.5
2 Andrew McCutchen 0.3599 0.3997 30.4
3 David Wright 0.3558 0.3910 27.2
4 Chase Headley 0.3436 0.3763 26.6
5 Michael Young 0.3566 0.3118 25.6
6 Alcides Escobar 0.2978 0.3312 25.1
7 Alex Rios 0.3007 0.3344 25.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Hill 0.3140 0.3598 35.7
2 Andrew McCutchen 0.3625 0.3997 30.2
3 Robinson Canó 0.3448 0.3788 29.0
4 David Freese 0.3296 0.3721 28.5
5 Ike Davis 0.3646 0.3082 28.4
6 Jon Jay 0.3264 0.3732 27.4
7 David Murphy 0.3350 0.3796 27.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Hosmer 0.3539 0.3043 33.1
2 Brian McCann 0.3541 0.2998 29.3
3 Ian Kinsler 0.3599 0.3260 29.0
4 J.J. Hardy 0.3159 0.2819 28.4
5 Geovany Soto 0.3363 0.2702 26.0
6 Brennan Boesch 0.3321 0.2863 26.0
7 Drew Stubbs 0.3168 0.2770 24.9

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Carlos Pena 0.3541
0.4565
(61.8)
0.4504
(53.7)
0.4467
(67.0)
Brandon Moss 0.5962
0.3602
(69.7)
0.4083
(57.6)
0.3750
(59.8)
Chase Headley 0.4983
0.3908
(74.8)
0.3966
(75.8)
0.3919
(61.1)
Mike Trout 0.5635
0.3968
(106.2)
0.4065
(104.6)
0.4139
(83.4)
Aaron Hill 0.5222
0.4101
(74.5)
0.4150
(76.1)
0.4242
(52.7)
Buster Posey 0.5491
0.4437
(63.9)
0.4603
(58.3)
0.4401
(54.8)
Alex Rios 0.5157
0.3984
(74.7)
0.4180
(66.8)
0.4043
(59.1)
Andrew McCutchen 0.5531
0.4492
(69.6)
0.4515
(73.0)
0.4547
(53.4)
Ian Desmond 0.5107
0.3816
(70.4)
0.3859
(72.0)
0.3784
(62.0)
Eric Hosmer 0.3589
0.4520
(56.0)
0.4594
(56.0)
0.4736
(80.0)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Encarnación 0.4444 0.5572 72.3
2 Ryan Ludwick 0.4013 0.5308 60.9
3 Michael Young 0.4600 0.3699 59.0
4 Dustin Ackley 0.4141 0.3278 58.0
5 Jemile Weeks 0.4158 0.3041 57.4
6 Michael Saunders 0.3333 0.4320 54.2
7 Austin Jackson 0.3906 0.4788 54.1
8 Giancarlo Stanton 0.5000 0.6080 53.9
9 Yadier Molina 0.4061 0.5010 53.1
10 Chris Davis 0.4060 0.5010 53.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Encarnación 0.4560 0.5572 69.6
2 Carlos Ruiz 0.3867 0.5403 67.5
3 Adam LaRoche 0.4129 0.5096 67.0
4 Yadier Molina 0.3902 0.5010 66.2
5 Justin Upton 0.5383 0.4296 64.0
6 Austin Jackson 0.3860 0.4788 61.4
7 A.J. Pierzynski 0.3918 0.5010 60.3
8 Melky Cabrera 0.4210 0.5163 51.1
9 Justin Ruggiano 0.3826 0.5347 50.8
10 Adrián González 0.5429 0.4626 50.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dustin Ackley 0.4098 0.3278 67.5
2 Brett Lawrie 0.4983 0.4049 60.3
3 Justin Upton 0.5052 0.4296 59.4
4 Carlos Lee 0.4410 0.3655 58.2
5 Carlos Ruiz 0.3832 0.5403 58.1
6 Shane Victorino 0.4497 0.3832 57.0
7 Adrián González 0.5258 0.4626 56.2
8 J.J. Hardy 0.4462 0.3891 54.3
9 Dan Uggla 0.4506 0.3843 53.8
10 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.4600 0.3997 53.8

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mike Pelfrey 85
774
(689.0)
714
(629.0)
789
(704.1)
Chris Carpenter 72
820
(748.0)
714
(642.4)
853
(781.0)
Tim Stauffer 24
629
(605.0)
684
(660.0)
616
(591.9)
Chris Narveson 41
642
(601.0)
551
(510.1)
624
(583.1)
Daniel Hudson 202
761
(559.0)
748
(546.4)
814
(612.0)
John Lannan 144
731
(587.0)
643
(499.5)
788
(644.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wei-Yin Chen 1 818 817.0
2 Yu Darvish 1 816 815.0
3 Roberto Hernandez 756 62 694.0
4 Lucas Harrell 207 827 620.0
5 Matt Moore 183 759 576.0
6 Jose Quintana 1 568 567.0
7 Felix Doubront 161 709 548.0
8 Lance Lynn 198 744 546.0
9 Brad Penny 669 133 536.0
10 Carl Pavano 801 268 533.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lucas Harrell 172 827 655.0
2 Jose Quintana 1 568 567.0
3 John Danks 788 238 549.8
4 Scott Diamond 180 714 533.9
5 Carl Pavano 800 268 532.3
6 Wade Miley 286 807 520.6
7 Cory Luebke 643 130 512.9
8 Jair Jurrjens 705 227 477.5
9 Jeff Samardzija 247 723 475.8
10 Dustin Moseley 490 22 467.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Roberto Hernandez 784 62 721.9
2 Brad Hand 681 23 658.1
3 Barry Enright 673 20 652.9
4 Julio Teheran 668 24 644.0
5 Brandon Dickson 675 32 643.0
6 John Ely 650 19 631.0
7 Thad Weber 654 24 630.1
8 Todd Redmond 648 22 625.9
9 D.J. Mitchell 649 24 624.9
10 Eric Hacker 636 45 591.1

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ricky Romero 0.3586
0.3054
(43.4)
0.2994
(36.6)
0.2826
(50.5)
Tim Lincecum 0.3309
0.2894
(33.6)
0.2762
(32.7)
0.2568
(48.7)
Kris Medlen 0.2340
0.3132
(41.6)
0.2786
(31.0)
0.2815
(32.5)
Iván Nova 0.3671
0.3124
(40.4)
0.3044
(35.6)
0.2996
(39.2)
Tommy Hanson 0.3473
0.2973
(37.4)
0.2873
(34.2)
0.2644
(51.6)
Jon Lester 0.3332
0.3003
(28.2)
0.2871
(27.2)
0.2763
(36.7)
Fernando Rodney 0.1901
0.3215
(37.3)
0.2966
(34.3)
0.2970
(34.4)
Jonathan Sánchez 0.4175
0.3071
(35.8)
0.3137
(29.0)
0.3027
(32.6)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.3566
0.3032
(42.4)
0.2945
(37.9)
0.2726
(55.5)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 A.J. Burnett 0.3402 0.2939 40.1
2 Kyle Lohse 0.3200 0.2761 38.6
3 Randy Wolf 0.3176 0.3735 38.5
4 Gio González 0.3019 0.2597 35.3
5 Wade Miley 0.3345 0.2943 33.1
6 Ian Kennedy 0.2929 0.3302 32.9
7 Henderson Alvarez III 0.3121 0.3501 30.1
8 Philip Humber 0.2979 0.3634 29.9
9 Jonathon Niese 0.3247 0.2882 29.3
10 Dan Haren 0.2917 0.3297 27.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Fiers 0.1839 0.3013 55.1
2 R.A. Dickey 0.3087 0.2778 42.6
3 Kyle Lohse 0.3073 0.2761 40.0
4 Gio González 0.2872 0.2597 35.0
5 Justin Verlander 0.2843 0.2650 32.9
6 Nick Blackburn 0.3196 0.4050 32.0
7 Tommy Hunter 0.2969 0.3669 31.5
8 Matt Cain 0.2943 0.2742 30.8
9 Jered Weaver 0.2931 0.2666 30.7
10 Clayton Kershaw 0.2744 0.2580 28.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Randy Wolf 0.2941 0.3735 45.0
2 Ian Kennedy 0.2722 0.3302 38.6
3 Jeremy Guthrie 0.2904 0.3509 35.8
4 Nick Blackburn 0.3155 0.4050 33.9
5 Dan Haren 0.2694 0.3297 33.7
6 Wade Miley 0.3187 0.2943 31.9
7 Luke Hochevar 0.2996 0.3530 30.6
8 Josh Johnson 0.2443 0.2969 29.9
9 Chris Tillman 0.3457 0.2779 28.8
10 Cliff Lee 0.2474 0.2963 28.6

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Henderson Alvarez III 0.0979
0.1721
(69.0)
0.1379
(45.5)
0.1307
(47.7)
Ricky Romero 0.1496
0.1919
(44.5)
0.1890
(46.2)
0.1877
(53.4)
Ricky Nolasco 0.1502
0.1927
(44.8)
0.1769
(35.8)
0.1951
(59.2)
R.A. Dickey 0.2481
0.1569
(74.0)
0.1392
(85.8)
0.1486
(67.9)
Max Scherzer 0.2935
0.2122
(55.0)
0.2041
(57.5)
0.2131
(42.6)
Jon Lester 0.1895
0.2345
(49.4)
0.2297
(49.5)
0.2299
(58.5)
Wandy Rodriguez 0.1589
0.2068
(51.9)
0.1932
(44.4)
0.1995
(58.6)
Derek Lowe 0.0859
0.1646
(57.6)
0.1381
(43.9)
0.1404
(51.7)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1776
0.2173
(41.1)
0.2185
(46.1)
0.2201
(55.3)
Clayton Richard 0.1176
0.1651
(53.6)
0.1546
(48.6)
0.1555
(58.4)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aroldis Chapman 0.2477 0.4420 50.5
2 Yu Darvish 0.1978 0.2708 50.3
3 Craig Kimbrel 0.2964 0.5022 44.9
4 Dallas Keuchel 0.1978 0.1008 40.9
5 Wade Davis 0.1540 0.3063 40.0
6 Aaron Cook 0.1314 0.0487 38.7
7 Jose Quintana 0.1978 0.1426 37.8
8 David Hernandez 0.2051 0.3525 37.8
9 Jason Grilli 0.2057 0.3689 37.0
10 Steve Delabar 0.1901 0.3358 36.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0924 0.1883 65.0
2 Yu Darvish 0.1920 0.2708 51.0
3 Aaron Laffey 0.1978 0.1119 43.9
4 Dallas Keuchel 0.1978 0.1008 42.7
5 Jose Quintana 0.1978 0.1426 40.6
6 Felix Doubront 0.1630 0.2355 39.8
7 Wade Davis 0.1506 0.3063 39.6
8 Chris Resop 0.2333 0.1394 36.4
9 Iván Nova 0.1404 0.2045 35.8
10 Craig Kimbrel 0.3401 0.5022 33.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zack Greinke 0.2728 0.2304 59.6
2 Chris Resop 0.2500 0.1394 45.2
3 Felix Doubront 0.1465 0.2355 44.5
4 Barry Zito 0.1685 0.1427 41.6
5 Josh Johnson 0.2312 0.2068 40.4
6 Mat Latos 0.2362 0.2156 40.2
7 Jered Weaver 0.2192 0.1922 39.4
8 Tim Lincecum 0.2511 0.2303 38.8
9 Lance Lynn 0.1638 0.2419 38.6
10 Tommy Hanson 0.2355 0.2116 38.2

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ricky Romero 0.1267
0.0898
(32.3)
0.0903
(32.9)
0.0867
(38.6)
Jeff Samardzija 0.0775
0.1129
(24.0)
0.1194
(27.9)
0.1285
(32.1)
Francisco Liriano 0.1255
0.0981
(20.5)
0.1002
(19.8)
0.0997
(22.5)
Wade Miley 0.0458
0.0898
(33.8)
0.0974
(39.0)
0.0956
(34.8)
Tim Lincecum 0.1091
0.0879
(19.2)
0.0855
(22.2)
0.0837
(26.4)
Scott Diamond 0.0434
0.0873
(29.8)
0.0878
(29.3)
0.0837
(24.0)
Yu Darvish 0.1091
0.0798
(25.6)
0.0749
(30.6)
0.0553
(49.3)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1180
0.0947
(20.5)
0.0950
(21.1)
0.0937
(24.9)
Clayton Richard 0.0462
0.0899
(37.9)
0.0913
(38.1)
0.0900
(33.9)
Aaron Harang 0.1081
0.0774
(25.9)
0.0739
(29.5)
0.0684
(36.5)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Samuel Deduno 0.0862 0.1527 23.8
2 Matt Moore 0.0820 0.1067 20.4
3 Bruce Chen 0.0835 0.0568 20.3
4 Daniel Bard 0.0874 0.1552 19.4
5 Kyle Lohse 0.0685 0.0440 19.3
6 Tommy Milone 0.0721 0.0455 19.3
7 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0838 0.0585 18.9
8 Bartolo Colon 0.0679 0.0362 18.9
9 A.J. Burnett 0.0966 0.0729 18.4
10 Carlos Zambrano 0.0982 0.1269 18.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Sale 0.1084 0.0661 30.2
2 Samuel Deduno 0.0798 0.1527 26.4
3 Carlos Zambrano 0.0961 0.1269 20.1
4 Edinson Volquez 0.1108 0.1309 18.8
5 Phil Hughes 0.0814 0.0564 17.7
6 Jeremy Hefner 0.0906 0.0441 17.6
7 Craig Stammen 0.0543 0.0973 17.1
8 Gavin Floyd 0.0667 0.0870 17.1
9 Johnny Cueto 0.0776 0.0552 17.0
10 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0825 0.0585 16.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Sale 0.1123 0.0661 30.5
2 Justin Masterson 0.0728 0.0971 28.1
3 Joe Kelly 0.1352 0.0788 22.7
4 Henderson Alvarez III 0.0455 0.0669 22.6
5 Gavin Floyd 0.0629 0.0870 22.3
6 Daniel Bard 0.0836 0.1552 21.7
7 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.0486 0.0829 21.2
8 C.J. Wilson 0.0879 0.1052 20.7
9 Steve Delabar 0.1742 0.0949 19.9
10 Philip Humber 0.0597 0.0952 19.5

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Henderson Alvarez III 0.0037
0.0100
(5.0)
0.0114
(5.9)
0.0147
(7.4)
Lucas Harrell 0.0012
0.0097
(6.9)
0.0101
(6.9)
0.0113
(6.9)
Ricky Nolasco 0.0096
0.0039
(4.8)
0.0049
(4.3)
0.0039
(6.3)
Daniel Bard 0.0289
0.0070
(6.1)
0.0085
(5.8)
0.0033
(7.6)
Will Ohman 0.0536
0.0084
(5.1)
0.0097
(5.0)
0.0114
(4.9)
Jeff Francis 0.0159
0.0058
(5.1)
0.0072
(4.6)
0.0065
(5.7)
Trevor Cahill 0.0131
0.0075
(4.8)
0.0079
(4.7)
0.0080
(5.8)
Gavin Floyd 0.0193
0.0095
(7.1)
0.0090
(7.8)
0.0088
(8.9)
James Shields 0.0117
0.0048
(6.6)
0.0055
(6.2)
0.0044
(8.6)
Luke Hochevar 0.0163
0.0083
(6.4)
0.0091
(6.1)
0.0086
(7.6)
Clay Buchholz 0.0150
0.0060
(7.3)
0.0072
(6.6)
0.0059
(8.7)
Ian Kennedy 0.0156
0.0101
(5.0)
0.0101
(5.3)
0.0115
(5.3)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jon Lester 0.0108 0.0046 5.4
2 Kris Medlen 0.0099 0.0000 5.1
3 Jeff Samardzija 0.0125 0.0055 5.0
4 Shawn Camp 0.0147 0.0000 4.8
5 Blake Beavan 0.0084 0.0157 4.7
6 Wesley Wright 0.0063 0.0269 4.6
7 Alex Cobb 0.0080 0.0158 4.5
8 Brandon McCarthy 0.0033 0.0128 4.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wade Miley 0.0094 0.0025 5.2
2 Félix Hernández 0.0079 0.0128 5.0
3 Carlos Zambrano 0.0092 0.0169 4.8
4 Cliff Lee 0.0060 0.0000 4.7
5 Héctor Santiago 0.0081 0.0229 4.7
6 Justin Germano 0.0081 0.0219 4.5
7 Tommy Milone 0.0109 0.0051 4.3
8 Marco Estrada 0.0079 0.0000 4.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Félix Hernández 0.0071 0.0128 7.1
2 Wade Miley 0.0121 0.0025 6.3
3 Jake Westbrook 0.0053 0.0107 5.4
4 Carlos Zambrano 0.0098 0.0169 5.3
5 Jon Lester 0.0124 0.0046 5.2
6 Brandon McCarthy 0.0036 0.0128 5.1
7 Jarrod Parker 0.0125 0.0040 5.0
8 Tommy Milone 0.0130 0.0051 4.8

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Derek Holland 0.0604
0.0376
(14.1)
0.0382
(14.3)
0.0363
(15.2)
Iván Nova 0.0529
0.0273
(16.6)
0.0285
(16.3)
0.0326
(12.7)
Kevin Millwood 0.0249
0.0417
(14.0)
0.0389
(11.5)
0.0394
(12.3)
Ervin Santana 0.0695
0.0381
(21.4)
0.0426
(18.6)
0.0397
(20.3)
Jason Marquis 0.0542
0.0275
(13.1)
0.0292
(12.6)
0.0268
(13.5)
Tommy Hunter 0.0688
0.0413
(13.8)
0.0384
(16.0)
0.0410
(14.1)
Gio González 0.0169
0.0301
(13.8)
0.0305
(13.3)
0.0316
(14.9)
Philip Humber 0.0699
0.0285
(17.5)
0.0402
(12.5)
0.0389
(12.8)
Aaron Harang 0.0247
0.0390
(13.9)
0.0415
(15.2)
0.0359
(11.3)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edinson Volquez 0.0452 0.0272 17.2
2 A.J. Burnett 0.0464 0.0300 16.9
3 Wade Miley 0.0367 0.0224 14.3
4 Carlos Villanueva 0.0360 0.0657 13.7
5 Jarrod Parker 0.0347 0.0202 13.5
6 Jason Vargas 0.0328 0.0509 13.0
7 Bronson Arroyo 0.0509 0.0390 12.8
8 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0256 0.0447 12.6
9 Phil Hughes 0.0402 0.0585 12.1
10 Travis Wood 0.0316 0.0534 11.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Verlander 0.0441 0.0291 16.8
2 Johnny Cueto 0.0391 0.0228 16.7
3 Clayton Kershaw 0.0394 0.0265 13.9
4 Felix Doubront 0.0303 0.0515 13.2
5 Jered Weaver 0.0504 0.0365 12.2
6 Nick Blackburn 0.0304 0.0594 12.1
7 Carlos Villanueva 0.0400 0.0657 12.0
8 David Price 0.0388 0.0282 11.0
9 Ricky Nolasco 0.0381 0.0276 10.9
10 Luke Hochevar 0.0303 0.0464 10.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jose Quintana 0.0548 0.0317 15.0
2 Jason Vargas 0.0318 0.0509 14.0
3 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0243 0.0447 13.8
4 Travis Wood 0.0298 0.0534 13.2
5 Bronson Arroyo 0.0507 0.0390 12.5
6 Felix Doubront 0.0306 0.0515 12.5
7 Steve Delabar 0.0328 0.0795 11.9
8 Tommy Hanson 0.0327 0.0515 11.9
9 Liam Hendriks 0.0226 0.0565 11.7
10 Tim Lincecum 0.0254 0.0425 11.4

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Brandon Beachy 0.2000
0.3041
(33.7)
0.2831
(25.5)
0.2892
(29.5)
Rick Porcello 0.3443
0.3043
(30.2)
0.3050
(33.3)
0.2942
(36.6)
Jonathon Niese 0.2724
0.3183
(37.3)
0.3067
(24.4)
0.3032
(27.0)
Chris Tillman 0.2213
0.3042
(29.3)
0.2926
(23.6)
0.2993
(28.3)
Vance Worley 0.3397
0.2845
(31.7)
0.2946
(28.5)
0.2855
(30.0)
Iván Nova 0.3313
0.2873
(31.9)
0.2967
(28.3)
0.2850
(32.1)
Ervin Santana 0.2414
0.2857
(35.0)
0.2855
(31.2)
0.2793
(31.6)
Randy Wolf 0.3372
0.2806
(38.5)
0.2919
(34.0)
0.2698
(44.7)
Travis Wood 0.2438
0.2962
(35.0)
0.2951
(31.2)
0.2879
(30.8)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Minor 0.3281 0.2520 56.5
2 Madison Bumgarner 0.3131 0.2763 32.5
3 Derek Holland 0.3025 0.2610 31.3
4 Ian Kennedy 0.2699 0.3057 30.9
5 Ricky Romero 0.2744 0.3111 29.2
6 Brandon Morrow 0.3066 0.2522 28.2
7 Kyle Lohse 0.2932 0.2621 28.1
8 Guillermo Moscoso 0.2556 0.3782 28.0
9 Jason Vargas 0.2834 0.2542 27.2
10 Edwin Jackson 0.3108 0.2783 26.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Fiers 0.1457 0.3192 95.3
2 Max Scherzer 0.2954 0.3333 32.4
3 Kyle Lohse 0.2974 0.2621 27.6
4 Mark Buehrle 0.3054 0.2701 26.5
5 R.A. Dickey 0.3072 0.2754 26.4
6 Jeff Francis 0.2930 0.3412 25.8
7 Jered Weaver 0.2787 0.2405 25.8
8 Tommy Hanson 0.2838 0.3139 25.4
9 Grant Balfour 0.2866 0.2011 23.8
10 Gio González 0.2986 0.2667 23.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Minor 0.2956 0.2520 34.2
2 Ricky Romero 0.2664 0.3111 34.2
3 Ross Detwiler 0.3035 0.2633 30.0
4 Scott Diamond 0.3302 0.2920 29.7
5 Max Scherzer 0.2922 0.3333 29.7
6 Ian Kennedy 0.2711 0.3057 28.1
7 Tommy Hanson 0.2743 0.3139 27.5
8 Jason Vargas 0.2803 0.2542 26.2
9 Jon Lester 0.2784 0.3116 26.1
10 Roy Oswalt 0.2810 0.3778 24.7

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Edwin Jackson 0.1855
0.2340
(39.4)
0.2976
(28.7)
0.2877
(26.1)
Travis Wood 0.1490
0.2174
(45.3)
0.2951
(45.7)
0.2879
(45.3)
Ervin Santana 0.1724
0.2134
(32.4)
0.2855
(28.6)
0.2793
(28.9)
David Price 0.2432
0.2040
(31.6)
0.2851
(28.3)
0.2715
(34.2)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Minor 0.2344 0.1855 36.6
2 Gio González 0.2330 0.1943 32.9
3 Madison Bumgarner 0.2391 0.2021 32.6
4 Aaron Harang 0.2329 0.1938 31.8
5 James McDonald 0.2270 0.1838 31.8
6 Derek Holland 0.2284 0.1928 27.0
7 Chris Tillman 0.2233 0.1475 26.8
8 Ross Detwiler 0.2279 0.1906 26.6
9 Guillermo Moscoso 0.1882 0.3013 25.8
10 Brandon Morrow 0.2197 0.1701 25.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Fiers 0.1457 0.2345 88.7
2 Will Smith 0.2203 0.2646 47.5
3 Jose Quintana 0.2203 0.2266 46.6
4 Joe Kelly 0.2203 0.2372 42.3
5 Justin Germano 0.2203 0.2747 41.6
6 Christian Friedrich 0.2203 0.2529 40.8
7 Patrick Corbin 0.2203 0.2308 39.1
8 Félix Hernández 0.2893 0.2539 37.9
9 Kelvin Herrera 0.2203 0.2542 37.7
10 P.J. Walters 0.2203 0.2656 32.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Félix Hernández 0.2790 0.2539 41.4
2 Scott Diamond 0.3302 0.2150 32.9
3 Jonny Venters 0.2708 0.3182 30.5
4 Ross Detwiler 0.3035 0.1906 30.1
5 Randy Wolf 0.2698 0.2437 30.0
6 Mike Minor 0.2956 0.1855 29.9
7 A.J. Griffin 0.2203 0.2397 29.7
8 James McDonald 0.2942 0.1838 29.5
9 Brandon Morrow 0.2969 0.1701 29.1
10 Chris Tillman 0.2993 0.1475 28.7

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Iván Nova 0.1038
0.0670
(27.5)
0.0000
(28.9)
0.0000
(28.9)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rick Porcello 0.0534 0.0869 26.2
2 Chris Capuano 0.0841 0.0575 21.8
3 A.J. Burnett 0.0771 0.0515 21.8
4 David Price 0.0662 0.0417 20.5
5 Mike Minor 0.0875 0.0605 19.7
6 Tommy Hanson 0.0655 0.0905 19.0
7 Ricky Nolasco 0.0730 0.0505 18.8
8 Zack Greinke 0.0745 0.0539 17.9
9 Jonathon Niese 0.0739 0.0520 17.3
10 Ernesto Frieri 0.0798 0.0160 17.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jose Quintana 0.0652 0.0654 36.9
2 A.J. Griffin 0.0652 0.0248 35.5
3 David Phelps 0.0652 0.0462 34.8
4 Eric Stults 0.0652 0.0466 34.6
5 Joe Kelly 0.0652 0.0601 32.1
6 Aaron Laffey 0.0652 0.0559 31.9
7 Samuel Deduno 0.0652 0.0405 31.2
8 Héctor Santiago 0.0652 0.0294 30.9
9 Travis Blackley 0.0652 0.0610 30.8
10 Miguel González 0.0652 0.0625 29.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 A.J. Griffin 0.0652 0.0248 35.5
2 Travis Blackley 0.0652 0.0610 30.8
3 Miguel González 0.0652 0.0625 29.5
4 David Price 0.0000 0.0417 19.6
5 J.A. Happ 0.0000 0.0961 19.4
6 Tommy Hanson 0.0000 0.0905 19.3
7 Rick Porcello 0.0000 0.0869 17.0
8 Félix Hernández 0.0000 0.0473 16.8
9 Kip Wells 0.0652 0.0325 16.5
10 Lucas Harrell 0.0000 0.0454 16.4

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Shawn Camp 0.0245
0.0101
(4.7)
0.0000
(5.6)
0.0000
(5.6)
Homer Bailey 0.0145
0.0072
(6.3)
0.0000
(6.3)
0.0000
(6.3)
David Price 0.0000
0.0074
(6.2)
0.0000
(6.1)
0.0000
(6.1)
Jonathon Niese 0.0000
0.0062
(4.9)
0.0000
(5.8)
0.0000
(5.8)
Wade Miley 0.0148
0.0042
(8.4)
0.0000
(6.0)
0.0000
(6.0)
Chad Billingsley 0.0202
0.0078
(7.8)
0.0000
(8.2)
0.0000
(8.2)
Iván Nova 0.0140
0.0043
(7.1)
0.0000
(5.0)
0.0000
(5.0)
Collin McHugh 0.0746
0.0073
(6.7)
0.0073
(5.9)
0.0000
(6.7)
Lance Lynn 0.0148
0.0075
(5.3)
0.0000
(5.5)
0.0000
(5.5)
Jonathan Sánchez 0.0329
0.0059
(8.8)
0.0000
(8.4)
0.0000
(8.4)
Alex White 0.0184
0.0075
(4.9)
0.0000
(5.1)
0.0000
(5.1)
Ian Kennedy 0.0146
0.0055
(8.1)
0.0000
(6.6)
0.0000
(6.6)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bruce Chen 0.0023 0.0100 6.3
2 Jeremy Guthrie 0.0087 0.0017 5.7
3 Mike Fiers 0.0128 0.0028 5.4
4 Jerome Williams 0.0049 0.0144 5.4
5 Madison Bumgarner 0.0057 0.0121 5.3
6 Jeremy Hellickson 0.0086 0.0019 5.0
7 Tim Hudson 0.0036 0.0104 5.0
8 Chris Perez 0.0057 0.0252 4.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bronson Arroyo 0.0000 0.0000 6.1
2 Ricky Romero 0.0000 0.0000 6.1
3 Edwin Jackson 0.0000 0.0148 5.9
4 Josh Tomlin 0.0000 0.0200 5.7
5 Ricky Nolasco 0.0000 0.0142 5.7
6 Dallas Keuchel 0.0073 0.0000 5.5
7 Adam Wainwright 0.0000 0.0139 5.5
8 Cole De Vries 0.0073 0.0000 5.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bronson Arroyo 0.0000 0.0000 6.1
2 Ricky Romero 0.0000 0.0000 6.1
3 Edwin Jackson 0.0000 0.0148 5.9
4 Josh Tomlin 0.0000 0.0200 5.7
5 Ricky Nolasco 0.0000 0.0142 5.7
6 Adam Wainwright 0.0000 0.0139 5.5
7 Miguel González 0.0073 0.0033 4.9
8 A.J. Griffin 0.0073 0.0000 4.9

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ricky Romero 0.1472
0.1046
(34.0)
0.1141
(27.4)
0.1021
(40.0)
Nick Blackburn 0.1776
0.1306
(20.7)
0.1141
(29.0)
0.1318
(22.3)
Kris Medlen 0.0500
0.1139
(34.0)
0.1141
(33.3)
0.1040
(26.4)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1441
0.1107
(25.6)
0.1141
(24.2)
0.0960
(41.3)
Randy Wolf 0.1474
0.1076
(26.7)
0.1141
(23.2)
0.1104
(28.0)
Kyle Lohse 0.0856
0.1224
(33.2)
0.1141
(24.6)
0.1185
(25.7)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tim Lincecum 0.0905 0.1345 35.0
2 Jon Lester 0.0997 0.1336 28.2
3 A.J. Burnett 0.1302 0.1011 26.2
4 Ervin Santana 0.1086 0.1427 24.8
5 Clay Buchholz 0.0974 0.1297 24.6
6 Roy Halladay 0.0813 0.1207 24.5
7 Fernando Rodney 0.1159 0.0319 24.2
8 Jonathan Sánchez 0.1089 0.1835 23.9
9 David Price 0.1011 0.0754 22.9
10 Philip Humber 0.1095 0.1602 22.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Luke Hochevar 0.1141 0.1588 35.7
2 Clayton Kershaw 0.1141 0.0777 32.8
3 David Price 0.1141 0.0754 32.4
4 Johnny Cueto 0.1141 0.0822 28.3
5 Justin Verlander 0.1141 0.0847 28.1
6 R.A. Dickey 0.1141 0.0841 27.8
7 Matt Cain 0.1141 0.0833 27.0
8 Jake Arrieta 0.1141 0.1653 25.4
9 Jordan Lyles 0.1141 0.1545 25.3
10 Gio González 0.1141 0.0839 24.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tim Lincecum 0.0826 0.1345 45.5
2 Jon Lester 0.0952 0.1336 36.4
3 Justin Masterson 0.1008 0.1347 33.5
4 Tommy Hanson 0.0900 0.1248 28.9
5 Luke Hochevar 0.1259 0.1588 28.8
6 Clay Buchholz 0.0986 0.1297 27.5
7 Roy Halladay 0.0826 0.1207 26.7
8 Adam Wainwright 0.0876 0.1155 25.9
9 Josh Johnson 0.0771 0.1053 25.0
10 Nate Jones 0.1490 0.0631 24.9

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Roy Halladay 0.1207
0.0750
(28.4)
0.0874
(21.0)
0.0768
(31.3)
Ricky Romero 0.1399
0.0935
(37.1)
0.1020
(30.8)
0.0955
(40.6)
Nick Blackburn 0.1776
0.1152
(27.7)
0.1246
(23.8)
0.1227
(27.1)
Kris Medlen 0.0462
0.1040
(31.0)
0.0928
(24.7)
0.0983
(24.8)
Tim Lincecum 0.1297
0.0829
(37.2)
0.0867
(34.8)
0.0770
(47.2)
Ervin Santana 0.1335
0.1001
(24.2)
0.1048
(21.3)
0.1068
(23.9)
Jon Lester 0.1256
0.0930
(27.0)
0.0928
(28.0)
0.0890
(36.0)
Fernando Rodney 0.0177
0.1063
(25.5)
0.0994
(23.3)
0.1053
(23.4)
Jonathan Sánchez 0.1774
0.0980
(25.4)
0.1057
(23.2)
0.1065
(24.7)
Kyle Lohse 0.0775
0.1093
(28.9)
0.1152
(33.2)
0.1111
(25.0)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1317
0.1013
(23.0)
0.0985
(26.1)
0.0902
(37.1)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Randy Wolf 0.0999 0.1416 28.0
2 A.J. Burnett 0.1221 0.0928 26.4
3 Philip Humber 0.1025 0.1580 24.9
4 Clay Buchholz 0.0875 0.1197 24.5
5 Jake Peavy 0.1162 0.0930 22.0
6 Craig Stammen 0.1179 0.0622 21.2
7 Justin Masterson 0.0999 0.1247 21.0
8 Josh Tomlin 0.1147 0.1615 20.4
9 Bruce Chen 0.1047 0.1306 20.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 R.A. Dickey 0.1153 0.0766 36.7
2 Johnny Cueto 0.1077 0.0755 29.4
3 Luke Hochevar 0.1118 0.1475 27.9
4 Wei-Yin Chen 0.1339 0.1051 24.2
5 Mike Fiers 0.0526 0.0983 24.2
6 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1132 0.0823 23.5
7 Tommy Hunter 0.1034 0.1414 21.3
8 Matt Harrison 0.1121 0.0890 20.9
9 Matt Cain 0.1003 0.0776 20.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Masterson 0.0941 0.1247 31.9
2 Randy Wolf 0.1027 0.1416 30.4
3 Luke Hochevar 0.1173 0.1475 27.8
4 Josh Johnson 0.0714 0.1015 27.7
5 Tommy Hanson 0.0845 0.1143 26.2
6 Clay Buchholz 0.0927 0.1197 25.3
7 Francisco Liriano 0.1057 0.1342 22.9
8 Scott Diamond 0.1316 0.0952 22.7
9 Adam Wainwright 0.0821 0.1047 22.6

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Cliff Lee 0.2000
0.3243
(157.8)
0.4669
(221.3)
0.5517
(301.1)
David Price 0.6452
0.3250
(215.9)
0.4492
(168.4)
0.4688
(144.3)
R.A. Dickey 0.5882
0.2000
(302.5)
0.3062
(266.6)
0.3929
(177.6)
Johnny Cueto 0.5758
0.2857
(202.6)
0.3617
(195.0)
0.3448
(201.7)
Chris Sale 0.5667
0.0732
(333.2)
0.3489
(172.4)
0.3846
(137.6)
Lance Lynn 0.5143
0.0909
(268.9)
0.1161
(300.4)
0.2414
(200.2)
Gio González 0.6563
0.3250
(221.4)
0.3676
(241.9)
0.4242
(187.6)
A.J. Burnett 0.5161
0.2632
(162.6)
0.3590
(138.4)
0.3214
(162.5)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Harrison 0.2381 0.5625 229.9
2 Wade Miley 0.1786 0.5000 209.4
3 Jarrod Parker 0.1111 0.4483 206.7
4 Yu Darvish 0.2497 0.5517 195.9
5 Stephen Strasburg 0.1852 0.5357 188.4
6 Jered Weaver 0.3590 0.6667 181.6
7 Cole Hamels 0.2821 0.5484 177.2
8 Scott Diamond 0.1379 0.4444 174.6
9 Barry Zito 0.1923 0.4688 171.4
10 Tommy Milone 0.1429 0.4194 169.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Phil Hughes 0.2007 0.5000 248.5
2 Lucas Harrell 0.0566 0.3438 242.1
3 Jeff Samardzija 0.0491 0.3214 200.9
4 Jered Weaver 0.4212 0.6667 185.5
5 Felix Doubront 0.1444 0.3793 170.5
6 Kevin Correia 0.1490 0.3750 168.6
7 Tim Hudson 0.3632 0.5714 160.1
8 Matt Harrison 0.3923 0.5625 153.9
9 Barry Zito 0.2821 0.4688 153.6
10 Kyle Kendrick 0.0871 0.2973 145.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jon Lester 0.5333 0.2727 231.6
2 Wade Miley 0.2593 0.5000 191.2
3 Jeff Samardzija 0.0704 0.3214 178.7
4 Ricky Romero 0.4839 0.2813 171.1
5 Tim Lincecum 0.5000 0.3030 165.6
6 Randy Wolf 0.3929 0.1667 160.7
7 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.4839 0.2903 158.8
8 Jeremy Guthrie 0.4286 0.2424 149.7
9 Kyle Lohse 0.3182 0.4848 140.7
10 Francisco Liriano 0.3704 0.1765 137.0

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mike Fiers 0.4348
0.0833
(154.0)
0.1790
(143.7)
0.1852
(137.0)
Justin Germano 0.7143
0.1111
(172.0)
0.2441
(153.9)
0.0968
(199.1)
Jeff Samardzija 0.4643
0.0889
(223.9)
0.0476
(309.1)
0.0704
(288.0)
Josh Beckett 0.5000
0.1944
(175.1)
0.2833
(166.1)
0.2400
(193.1)
Mat Latos 0.1212
0.3000
(209.8)
0.3021
(145.9)
0.2813
(133.4)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.5484
0.2703
(171.0)
0.3266
(187.3)
0.2903
(211.4)
Erik Bedard 0.5833
0.2059
(173.7)
0.3317
(146.2)
0.2667
(178.9)
Kyle Lohse 0.0909
0.2368
(182.8)
0.3815
(241.7)
0.3636
(231.7)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nathan Eovaldi 0.1538 0.5909 195.3
2 Henderson Alvarez III 0.1613 0.4516 181.3
3 Josh Johnson 0.1600 0.4516 180.3
4 Travis Wood 0.1765 0.5000 167.3
5 Hector Noesí 0.1111 0.5455 167.0
6 Joe Blanton 0.1667 0.4194 150.7
7 Luke Hochevar 0.2632 0.5000 136.9
8 Matt Moore 0.1111 0.3548 135.1
9 Tyson Ross 0.1600 0.6111 131.8
10 Justin Masterson 0.2326 0.4412 129.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lucas Harrell 0.0474 0.3438 254.0
2 Phil Hughes 0.1700 0.4063 201.4
3 R.A. Dickey 0.3990 0.1765 196.2
4 Matt Cain 0.3569 0.1563 166.3
5 Kyle Kendrick 0.0993 0.3243 159.0
6 Scott Feldman 0.0949 0.3793 158.3
7 Felix Doubront 0.1363 0.3448 155.5
8 Jon Lester 0.2684 0.4242 146.1
9 Tyson Ross 0.2051 0.6111 142.6
10 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.4288 0.1667 130.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Johnson 0.1500 0.4516 244.3
2 Nathan Eovaldi 0.2692 0.5909 171.6
3 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.5000 0.1667 170.6
4 Justin Masterson 0.2727 0.4412 156.7
5 Hector Noesí 0.2258 0.5455 146.9
6 Tim Lincecum 0.2813 0.4545 146.7
7 Jon Lester 0.2667 0.4242 142.0
8 Travis Wood 0.2903 0.5000 139.0
9 Bud Norris 0.2667 0.4483 136.4
10 Brad Lincoln 0.4074 0.0385 131.9

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Rafael Soriano 0.6087
0.2895
(95.3)
0.0392
(158.8)
0.0000
(162.0)
Jim Johnson 0.7183
0.1042
(171.3)
0.4492
(72.3)
0.0000
(185.7)
Tom Wilhelmsen 0.3973
0.0476
(121.3)
0.0172
(123.7)
0.0000
(120.4)
Alfredo Aceves 0.3623
0.0488
(121.3)
0.0158
(124.9)
0.0000
(120.7)
Aroldis Chapman 0.5588
0.0278
(152.8)
0.0222
(148.0)
0.0000
(146.5)
Tyler Clippard 0.4324
0.0185
(134.0)
0.0242
(125.2)
0.0000
(124.2)
Fernando Rodney 0.6316
0.1944
(129.6)
0.0000
(178.0)
0.0000
(170.2)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Motte 0.0755 0.6269 160.1
2 Rafael Betancourt 0.0600 0.5167 113.1
3 Addison Reed 0.0714 0.4677 99.7
4 Ernesto Frieri 0.0244 0.3433 91.8
5 Grant Balfour 0.0435 0.3200 86.4
6 Casey Janssen 0.0250 0.3548 85.3
7 Joel Hanrahan 0.2692 0.5714 82.5
8 Kenley Jansen 0.0811 0.3846 82.2
9 Chris Perez 0.3333 0.6393 79.5
10 Santiago Casilla 0.0769 0.3425 78.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Heath Bell 0.6875 0.2603 122.3
2 Jordan Walden 0.7188 0.0222 119.9
3 Brandon League 0.5982 0.2027 119.2
4 Carlos Marmol 0.6961 0.3279 91.1
5 Ernesto Frieri 0.0192 0.3433 87.1
6 Brett Myers 0.5865 0.2714 85.8
7 Casey Janssen 0.0000 0.3548 85.8
8 Santiago Casilla 0.0500 0.3425 79.4
9 Kyle Farnsworth 0.6600 0.0000 79.3
10 Matt Thornton 0.3365 0.0405 78.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Motte 0.0000 0.6269 167.1
2 Chris Perez 0.0000 0.6393 148.0
3 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.6667 147.6
4 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.5429 146.3
5 Joel Hanrahan 0.0000 0.5714 138.1
6 Joe Nathan 0.0000 0.5606 136.9
7 Jose Valverde 0.0000 0.4930 136.7
8 John Axford 0.0000 0.4667 136.0
9 J.J. Putz 0.0000 0.5614 116.3
10 Rafael Betancourt 0.0000 0.5167 115.4

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jason Grilli 0.5000
0.2000
(82.1)
0.2034
(72.6)
0.0000
(109.2)
Vicente Padilla 0.4107
0.1500
(64.8)
0.0385
(81.4)
0.0000
(78.1)
Mitchell Boggs 0.4359
0.0750
(117.6)
0.1400
(87.9)
0.0000
(113.5)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Sale 0.1951 0.0000 122.4
2 Francisco Rodríguez 0.1176 0.4103 100.4
3 Daniel Bard 0.3585 0.0000 89.2
4 Vinnie Pestano 0.2500 0.5143 86.0
5 Joel Peralta 0.2222 0.4868 79.5
6 Edward Mujica 0.1667 0.4286 77.0
7 Sean Doolittle 0.0524 0.4091 75.1
8 Kris Medlen 0.0526 0.1600 74.8
9 Dale Thayer 0.0667 0.3438 73.7
10 Phil Hughes 0.1250 0.0000 72.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance Lynn 0.1875 0.0286 117.6
2 Jeff Samardzija 0.1579 0.0000 113.5
3 Lucas Harrell 0.1316 0.0000 108.1
4 Ronald Belisario 0.0000 0.3382 97.0
5 Rafael Soriano 0.3922 0.0580 93.0
6 Anthony Bass 0.2500 0.0417 85.2
7 Alex Cobb 0.1364 0.0000 77.1
8 Ryan Cook 0.0524 0.2958 70.3
9 Brad Lincoln 0.0000 0.1923 69.9
10 Dale Thayer 0.0524 0.3438 68.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Vinnie Pestano 0.0000 0.5143 132.1
2 Joel Peralta 0.0000 0.4868 114.7
3 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0000 0.4103 109.1
4 Joaquín Benoit 0.0000 0.4110 103.3
5 David Robertson 0.0000 0.4615 101.5
6 Edward Mujica 0.0000 0.4286 97.0
7 Matt Belisle 0.0000 0.3250 94.9
8 Sean Burnett 0.0000 0.4429 93.3
9 Mike Adams 0.0000 0.4426 89.0
10 Eric O'Flaherty 0.0000 0.4375 88.6

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ricky Romero 5.7680
3.5131
(1778.9)
3.9993
(1475.9)
3.7233
(1981.1)
Nick Blackburn 7.3885
4.5302
(1253.7)
4.9644
(1110.7)
4.9592
(1265.1)
Tim Lincecum 5.1774
3.1116
(1614.4)
3.3052
(1554.2)
2.9196
(2147.4)
Jon Lester 4.8214
3.4947
(1066.8)
3.5787
(1098.9)
3.4597
(1495.2)
Jonathan Sánchez 8.0722
3.7821
(1367.2)
4.2824
(1243.1)
4.3580
(1327.4)
Ubaldo Jiménez 5.4000
3.8557
(1155.4)
3.8349
(1269.3)
3.5231
(1788.7)

Individual Misses for ERA

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kris Medlen 3.9212 1.5652 1281.8
2 Kyle Lohse 4.2004 2.8578 1254.1
3 Randy Wolf 3.8194 5.6512 1204.2
4 A.J. Burnett 4.8120 3.5140 1197.3
5 Philip Humber 3.8897 6.4412 1128.4
6 Roy Halladay 2.7231 4.4904 1071.2
7 Fernando Rodney 4.2217 0.6027 1051.3
8 Jake Peavy 4.3990 3.3699 1003.9
9 Ervin Santana 3.8151 5.1573 942.1
10 Clay Buchholz 3.3166 4.5634 912.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 R.A. Dickey 4.5731 2.7347 1693.5
2 Kyle Lohse 4.5301 2.8578 1434.8
3 Johnny Cueto 4.2321 2.7788 1280.2
4 Wei-Yin Chen 5.4119 4.0173 1131.2
5 Luke Hochevar 4.4006 5.7302 1073.0
6 Kris Medlen 3.5454 1.5652 1023.7
7 Jeremy Hellickson 4.4676 3.1017 1003.5
8 Scott Diamond 4.9384 3.5376 991.9
9 Matt Cain 3.8860 2.7903 949.7
10 Matt Harrison 4.3841 3.2906 947.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Masterson 3.7059 4.9289 1420.7
2 Randy Wolf 4.0449 5.6512 1364.0
3 Roy Halladay 2.8326 4.4904 1293.8
4 Scott Diamond 5.6450 3.5376 1258.4
5 Tommy Hanson 3.2049 4.4828 1235.1
6 Josh Johnson 2.6573 3.8101 1195.3
7 Jose Quintana 6.1364 3.7628 1152.2
8 Luke Hochevar 4.6620 5.7302 1130.6
9 Nate Jones 6.1644 2.3860 1033.4
10 Clay Buchholz 3.6247 4.5634 1029.6

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ricky Romero 1.6740
1.2583
(345.9)
1.4049
(269.8)
1.2791
(405.5)
Chris Tillman 1.0465
1.4804
(150.0)
1.5765
(164.4)
1.6444
(174.8)
Wade Miley 1.1815
1.4416
(208.6)
1.4975
(209.6)
1.5845
(249.2)
Tim Lincecum 1.4677
1.2258
(200.9)
1.2609
(217.0)
1.1848
(311.2)
Tommy Hanson 1.4542
1.2170
(181.7)
1.2737
(180.2)
1.1675
(289.8)
Scott Diamond 1.2428
1.4586
(153.0)
1.5577
(184.7)
1.7177
(271.9)
Fernando Rodney 0.7768
1.4712
(195.4)
1.4429
(172.0)
1.5000
(177.4)
Jonathan Sánchez 2.0876
1.3385
(245.5)
1.5209
(203.7)
1.4967
(224.0)
Ubaldo Jiménez 1.6132
1.2909
(260.8)
1.3606
(248.7)
1.2964
(330.9)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kyle Lohse 1.3317 1.0900 207.4
2 Mike Minor 1.4326 1.1543 201.5
3 Kris Medlen 1.2863 0.9130 193.3
4 R.A. Dickey 1.2544 1.0528 185.5
5 Randy Wolf 1.3112 1.5729 184.1
6 Jonathon Niese 1.4042 1.1716 182.0
7 Gio González 1.3465 1.1288 177.7
8 Daniel Bard 1.1318 1.7360 167.8
9 A.J. Burnett 1.4336 1.2405 163.0
10 Tyson Ross 1.3448 1.8136 160.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 R.A. Dickey 1.4382 1.0528 305.1
2 Mike Fiers 1.7706 1.2611 244.3
3 Kyle Lohse 1.3939 1.0900 213.9
4 Matt Cain 1.3059 1.0395 184.1
5 Wei-Yin Chen 1.5275 1.2612 171.8
6 Jeff Samardzija 1.4950 1.2195 158.5
7 Kris Medlen 1.2600 0.9130 151.2
8 Gio González 1.3654 1.1288 148.3
9 Derek Lowe 1.4465 1.6192 146.5
10 Jake Peavy 1.3160 1.0959 144.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Randy Wolf 1.3258 1.5729 238.6
2 Josh Johnson 1.1111 1.2805 210.3
3 Justin Masterson 1.3235 1.4540 203.5
4 Jeremy Guthrie 1.2472 1.4092 201.9
5 Jon Lester 1.2653 1.3831 185.7
6 Steve Delabar 1.8621 1.0909 185.5
7 Rick Porcello 1.3907 1.5312 183.8
8 Ian Kennedy 1.1941 1.3008 180.6
9 Dan Haren 1.1451 1.2906 179.0
10 Vance Worley 1.3131 1.5113 172.5