2011 Projection Evaluation
Batting Projection Accuracy
Plate Appearances (PA)
Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eric Hosmer | 1 | 563 | 562.0 |
| 2 | Cesar Izturis | 495 | 33 | 462.0 |
| 3 | Jemile Weeks | 1 | 437 | 436.0 |
| 4 | Lastings Milledge | 440 | 4 | 436.0 |
| 5 | Trevor Crowe | 462 | 32 | 430.0 |
| 6 | Jacoby Ellsbury | 313 | 732 | 419.0 |
| 7 | Freddie Freeman | 221 | 635 | 414.0 |
| 8 | Danny Espinosa | 264 | 658 | 394.0 |
| 9 | Eric Thames | 1 | 394 | 393.0 |
| 10 | Adam LaRoche | 565 | 177 | 388.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cedric Hunter | 705 | 5 | 700.0 |
| 2 | Eduardo Escobar | 672 | 7 | 665.0 |
| 3 | Osvaldo Martínez | 662 | 23 | 639.0 |
| 4 | Lars Anderson | 644 | 5 | 639.0 |
| 5 | Iván De Jesús Jr. | 671 | 35 | 636.0 |
| 6 | Alexi Amarista | 692 | 56 | 636.0 |
| 7 | Pete Kozma | 651 | 22 | 629.0 |
| 8 | Alex Liddi | 666 | 44 | 622.0 |
| 9 | Chris Carter | 668 | 46 | 622.0 |
| 10 | Brandon Laird | 644 | 25 | 619.0 |
wOBA
Everybody Missed for wOBA
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Morse | 0.3927 |
0.3524
(29.8)
|
0.3452
(31.2)
|
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.3971 |
0.3222
(63.2)
|
0.3224
(59.7)
|
| Ryan Braun | 0.4270 |
0.3804
(36.5)
|
0.3806
(33.5)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.4229 |
0.3438
(62.4)
|
0.3416
(60.7)
|
| Alex Gordon | 0.3823 |
0.3232
(48.7)
|
0.3329
(38.7)
|
| José Bautista | 0.4519 |
0.3696
(61.4)
|
0.3808
(51.0)
|
| Emilio Bonifácio | 0.3296 |
0.2881
(34.0)
|
0.2870
(31.7)
|
| Alex Avila | 0.3865 |
0.3196
(43.2)
|
0.3071
(47.5)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.4457 |
0.4045
(36.3)
|
0.4098
(29.3)
|
| Mike Napoli | 0.4464 |
0.3548
(44.6)
|
0.3674
(37.0)
|
| Adam Dunn | 0.2681 |
0.3842
(51.9)
|
0.3995
(61.9)
|
| Melky Cabrera | 0.3482 |
0.3101
(35.0)
|
0.3129
(29.7)
|
Individual Misses for wOBA
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Granderson | 0.3453 | 0.3908 | 39.4 |
| 2 | David Ortiz | 0.3646 | 0.4127 | 36.1 |
| 3 | Jeff Francoeur | 0.3078 | 0.3481 | 34.0 |
| 4 | Casey Kotchman | 0.3080 | 0.3566 | 33.8 |
| 5 | Casey McGehee | 0.3456 | 0.2778 | 33.8 |
| 6 | José Reyes | 0.3360 | 0.3800 | 32.5 |
| 7 | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.3436 | 0.2876 | 32.0 |
| 8 | Hunter Pence | 0.3448 | 0.3789 | 30.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jemile Weeks | 0.2621 | 0.3318 | 33.4 |
| 2 | Lance Berkman | 0.3669 | 0.4160 | 32.8 |
| 3 | Carl Crawford | 0.3681 | 0.3009 | 32.5 |
| 4 | Justin Morneau | 0.3926 | 0.2765 | 31.5 |
| 5 | Alex Rios | 0.3323 | 0.2704 | 31.4 |
| 6 | Jason Heyward | 0.3875 | 0.3146 | 30.2 |
| 7 | Carlos Beltrán | 0.3520 | 0.3943 | 29.3 |
| 8 | Aubrey Huff | 0.3556 | 0.2994 | 28.6 |
Strikeout Rate
Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Ortiz | 0.1372 |
0.2076
(45.2)
|
0.2136
(47.9)
|
| Prince Fielder | 0.1532 |
0.1918
(29.8)
|
0.1980
(32.8)
|
| Curtis Granderson | 0.2446 |
0.1970
(29.8)
|
0.2029
(26.9)
|
| Michael Young | 0.1132 |
0.1598
(35.1)
|
0.1530
(29.3)
|
| Justin Upton | 0.1869 |
0.2460
(42.8)
|
0.2385
(36.6)
|
| Nick Markakis | 0.1047 |
0.1463
(32.9)
|
0.1491
(33.6)
|
| Jamey Carroll | 0.1137 |
0.1667
(29.2)
|
0.1648
(27.4)
|
| Kelly Johnson | 0.2659 |
0.1947
(40.9)
|
0.1873
(46.6)
|
Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Revere | 0.1794 | 0.0852 | 47.4 |
| 2 | Adam Dunn | 0.2667 | 0.3569 | 42.6 |
| 3 | Josh Willingham | 0.1953 | 0.2664 | 37.6 |
| 4 | J.P. Arencibia | 0.1964 | 0.2737 | 35.4 |
| 5 | Aramis Ramirez | 0.1598 | 0.1102 | 33.8 |
| 6 | Darwin Barney | 0.1700 | 0.1173 | 32.6 |
| 7 | Trayvon Robinson | 0.1814 | 0.3935 | 32.2 |
| 8 | José Reyes | 0.1190 | 0.0700 | 31.3 |
| 9 | Brent Morel | 0.1942 | 0.1284 | 31.2 |
| 10 | Martín Prado | 0.1347 | 0.0881 | 30.1 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Rodríguez | 0.2768 | 0.1995 | 34.8 |
| 2 | Brandon Crawford | 0.2780 | 0.1409 | 30.7 |
| 3 | Mark Reynolds | 0.3628 | 0.3161 | 30.6 |
| 4 | Freddie Freeman | 0.1730 | 0.2236 | 30.5 |
| 5 | Evan Longoria | 0.2121 | 0.1620 | 30.3 |
| 6 | Robert Andino | 0.2165 | 0.1624 | 29.0 |
| 7 | Andrew McCutchen | 0.1406 | 0.1858 | 28.9 |
| 8 | Miguel Cabrera | 0.1677 | 0.1294 | 28.2 |
| 9 | Howie Kendrick | 0.1549 | 0.2041 | 27.1 |
| 10 | Carl Crawford | 0.1408 | 0.1929 | 26.6 |
Walk Rate
Everybody Missed for Walk Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Ross | 0.1063 |
0.0664
(20.9)
|
0.0576
(23.4)
|
| Joey Votto | 0.1530 |
0.1220
(26.3)
|
0.1293
(18.6)
|
| Evan Longoria | 0.1394 |
0.1020
(24.7)
|
0.1091
(18.6)
|
| Alberto Callaspo | 0.1082 |
0.0705
(23.2)
|
0.0628
(25.5)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.1074 |
0.0773
(24.6)
|
0.0750
(23.8)
|
| José Bautista | 0.2015 |
0.1263
(52.9)
|
0.1407
(41.2)
|
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.1176 |
0.0911
(23.5)
|
0.0931
(19.6)
|
| Ian Kinsler | 0.1231 |
0.0972
(22.8)
|
0.1004
(18.0)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.1570 |
0.1074
(37.9)
|
0.1193
(27.4)
|
| Raul Ibanez | 0.0574 |
0.0987
(20.6)
|
0.0995
(22.9)
|
| Albert Pujols | 0.0937 |
0.1477
(31.6)
|
0.1495
(34.9)
|
| John Buck | 0.1019 |
0.0642
(22.9)
|
0.0627
(21.9)
|
| Chipper Jones | 0.0996 |
0.1533
(24.7)
|
0.1544
(26.9)
|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.1313 |
0.1034
(22.7)
|
0.1033
(20.4)
|
| Jonny Gomes | 0.1290 |
0.0759
(21.8)
|
0.0738
(21.3)
|
Individual Misses for Walk Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Swisher | 0.1200 | 0.1496 | 22.3 |
| 2 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.0867 | 0.1165 | 21.2 |
| 3 | Chris Iannetta | 0.1203 | 0.1643 | 21.1 |
| 4 | Darwin Barney | 0.0810 | 0.0385 | 21.1 |
| 5 | Mike Napoli | 0.0926 | 0.1343 | 20.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wilson Ramos | 0.0293 | 0.0874 | 26.2 |
| 2 | Kosuke Fukudome | 0.1398 | 0.1012 | 22.0 |
| 3 | Carlos Lee | 0.0597 | 0.0904 | 21.4 |
| 4 | Scott Sizemore | 0.0800 | 0.1235 | 19.6 |
| 5 | Melky Cabrera | 0.0787 | 0.0496 | 19.0 |
Hit By Pitch Rate
Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kotchman | 0.0213 |
0.0105
(6.0)
|
0.0102
(6.3)
|
| Curtis Granderson | 0.0174 |
0.0038
(9.4)
|
0.0048
(8.8)
|
| Gordon Beckham | 0.0233 |
0.0119
(6.3)
|
0.0144
(5.0)
|
| Juan Pierre | 0.0098 |
0.0200
(7.3)
|
0.0213
(8.1)
|
| Danny Espinosa | 0.0289 |
0.0076
(14.0)
|
0.0135
(10.2)
|
| Robinson Canó | 0.0176 |
0.0081
(6.4)
|
0.0091
(5.9)
|
| Justin Upton | 0.0282 |
0.0071
(14.1)
|
0.0059
(15.1)
|
| Alex Gonzalez | 0.0017 |
0.0108
(5.5)
|
0.0117
(5.9)
|
| Brendan Ryan | 0.0202 |
0.0082
(5.9)
|
0.0088
(5.7)
|
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.0014 |
0.0089
(5.5)
|
0.0102
(6.3)
|
| Nyjer Morgan | 0.0326 |
0.0148
(7.6)
|
0.0168
(6.9)
|
| Sean Rodríguez | 0.0413 |
0.0150
(11.4)
|
0.0222
(8.4)
|
| Brent Lillibridge | 0.0324 |
0.0076
(5.3)
|
0.0093
(5.0)
|
Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Quentin | 0.0318 | 0.0476 | 7.6 |
| 2 | Michael Morse | 0.0114 | 0.0226 | 6.4 |
| 3 | Starlin Castro | 0.0105 | 0.0028 | 5.6 |
| 4 | David DeJesus | 0.0110 | 0.0217 | 5.4 |
| 5 | Justin Turner | 0.0093 | 0.0205 | 5.4 |
| 6 | Asdrúbal Cabrera | 0.0084 | 0.0165 | 5.4 |
| 7 | Reed Johnson | 0.0219 | 0.0414 | 5.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Wallace | 0.0274 | 0.0079 | 7.3 |
| 2 | Rickie Weeks Jr. | 0.0294 | 0.0155 | 7.1 |
| 3 | Darwin Barney | 0.0034 | 0.0140 | 6.2 |
| 4 | Chris Iannetta | 0.0261 | 0.0117 | 6.1 |
| 5 | Maicer Izturis | 0.0058 | 0.0162 | 5.2 |
| 6 | Mike Napoli | 0.0191 | 0.0069 | 5.2 |
| 7 | Prince Fielder | 0.0218 | 0.0145 | 5.0 |
Home Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Granderson | 0.0965 |
0.0565
(29.4)
|
0.0651
(22.7)
|
| Logan Morrison | 0.0627 |
0.0244
(21.4)
|
0.0271
(19.4)
|
| Mark Trumbo | 0.0686 |
0.0333
(21.6)
|
0.0455
(14.1)
|
| Asdrúbal Cabrera | 0.0507 |
0.0167
(24.4)
|
0.0165
(23.8)
|
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.0558 |
0.0202
(28.0)
|
0.0159
(30.3)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.0867 |
0.0524
(25.4)
|
0.0517
(25.1)
|
| J.J. Hardy | 0.0679 |
0.0337
(20.8)
|
0.0373
(18.1)
|
| Lance Berkman | 0.0777 |
0.0547
(15.0)
|
0.0503
(16.9)
|
| Josh Willingham | 0.0838 |
0.0579
(16.0)
|
0.0556
(16.7)
|
| Adam Dunn | 0.0458 |
0.0947
(23.0)
|
0.1258
(39.0)
|
| Brent Lillibridge | 0.1000 |
0.0279
(16.1)
|
0.0248
(16.5)
|
| Aaron Hill | 0.0175 |
0.0526
(18.6)
|
0.0517
(18.7)
|
Individual Misses for Home Run Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Bautista | 0.0795 | 0.1059 | 19.0 |
| 2 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.0672 | 0.0955 | 18.5 |
| 3 | Adrian Beltré | 0.0433 | 0.0724 | 16.6 |
| 4 | B.J. Upton | 0.0349 | 0.0569 | 15.7 |
| 5 | J.P. Arencibia | 0.0437 | 0.0735 | 15.7 |
| 6 | Carlos Santana | 0.0431 | 0.0634 | 15.0 |
| 7 | Russell Martin | 0.0243 | 0.0529 | 14.8 |
| 8 | Mike Napoli | 0.0745 | 0.1049 | 14.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Morse | 0.0480 | 0.0775 | 17.8 |
| 2 | Chris Heisey | 0.0373 | 0.0874 | 15.9 |
| 3 | Vladimir Guerrero | 0.0526 | 0.0255 | 15.2 |
| 4 | Hideki Matsui | 0.0536 | 0.0270 | 14.7 |
| 5 | Andrew McCutchen | 0.0307 | 0.0507 | 14.5 |
| 6 | Adrián González | 0.0739 | 0.0523 | 14.4 |
| 7 | Jason Giambi | 0.0570 | 0.1494 | 14.3 |
| 8 | Jack Cust | 0.0749 | 0.0217 | 14.0 |
BABIP
Everybody Missed for BABIP
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kotchman | 0.3349 |
0.2636
(43.2)
|
0.2760
(35.1)
|
| Evan Longoria | 0.2390 |
0.3189
(42.7)
|
0.3213
(45.2)
|
| Michael Young | 0.3666 |
0.3213
(34.9)
|
0.3126
(39.7)
|
| Michael Bourn | 0.3652 |
0.3250
(33.0)
|
0.3192
(35.8)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.3796 |
0.3241
(42.0)
|
0.3199
(43.6)
|
| Alex Gordon | 0.3568 |
0.2851
(53.3)
|
0.2988
(42.5)
|
| José Bautista | 0.3085 |
0.2563
(37.8)
|
0.2508
(40.2)
|
| Hunter Pence | 0.3613 |
0.3028
(42.7)
|
0.3049
(40.1)
|
| Alex Avila | 0.3631 |
0.2846
(46.3)
|
0.2946
(39.7)
|
| Ian Kinsler | 0.2409 |
0.2917
(32.7)
|
0.2899
(32.8)
|
| Alex Rios | 0.2370 |
0.3007
(33.2)
|
0.2971
(32.3)
|
Individual Misses for BABIP
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrián González | 0.3028 | 0.3804 | 59.4 |
| 2 | Peter Bourjos | 0.2605 | 0.3316 | 42.3 |
| 3 | Emilio Bonifácio | 0.3074 | 0.3624 | 38.8 |
| 4 | Freddie Freeman | 0.2876 | 0.3390 | 36.1 |
| 5 | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.3488 | 0.2944 | 35.3 |
| 6 | Melky Cabrera | 0.2835 | 0.3280 | 35.2 |
| 7 | Dan Uggla | 0.3092 | 0.2530 | 34.1 |
| 8 | Martín Prado | 0.3266 | 0.2653 | 32.9 |
| 9 | Vernon Wells | 0.2812 | 0.2141 | 32.6 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jemile Weeks | 0.2542 | 0.3477 | 42.4 |
| 2 | Adam Dunn | 0.3173 | 0.2402 | 36.5 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | 0.3179 | 0.3646 | 34.6 |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | 0.2924 | 0.3430 | 32.2 |
| 5 | Mark Teixeira | 0.2885 | 0.2388 | 31.5 |
| 6 | Logan Morrison | 0.3279 | 0.2645 | 31.4 |
| 7 | José Reyes | 0.3016 | 0.3515 | 31.4 |
| 8 | Chone Figgins | 0.3117 | 0.2129 | 29.8 |
| 9 | Wilson Betemit | 0.3147 | 0.3907 | 28.6 |
Single Rate
Everybody Missed for Single Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián González | 0.2822 |
0.2290
(40.0)
|
0.2465
(26.0)
|
| Casey Kotchman | 0.2740 |
0.1984
(44.1)
|
0.2031
(40.2)
|
| Michael Young | 0.2813 |
0.2449
(26.9)
|
0.2381
(30.2)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.2895 |
0.2462
(31.7)
|
0.2393
(35.0)
|
| Alex Gordon | 0.2489 |
0.2085
(29.7)
|
0.2104
(27.0)
|
| Freddie Freeman | 0.2615 |
0.2157
(30.8)
|
0.2163
(29.1)
|
| José Bautista | 0.2369 |
0.1755
(42.0)
|
0.1693
(44.7)
|
| Hunter Pence | 0.2688 |
0.2300
(27.7)
|
0.2303
(26.1)
|
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.2491 |
0.2159
(26.2)
|
0.2120
(27.5)
|
| Ian Kinsler | 0.1683 |
0.2139
(31.0)
|
0.2150
(33.4)
|
| Andre Ethier | 0.2686 |
0.2188
(29.0)
|
0.2139
(30.4)
|
| Omar Infante | 0.2283 |
0.2717
(26.1)
|
0.2693
(25.9)
|
| Chone Figgins | 0.1647 |
0.2648
(30.5)
|
0.2601
(29.7)
|
Individual Misses for Single Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmy Rollins | 0.1836 | 0.2263 | 28.6 |
| 2 | Rubén Tejada | 0.1975 | 0.2702 | 28.3 |
| 3 | Jhonny Peralta | 0.2134 | 0.2584 | 27.5 |
| 4 | Peter Bourjos | 0.1860 | 0.2326 | 27.2 |
| 5 | Emilio Bonifácio | 0.2490 | 0.2886 | 27.1 |
| 6 | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.2923 | 0.2533 | 26.2 |
| 7 | Chris Coghlan | 0.2530 | 0.1651 | 25.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Evan Longoria | 0.2150 | 0.1648 | 28.5 |
| 2 | Colby Rasmus | 0.2312 | 0.1792 | 27.1 |
| 3 | Adam Dunn | 0.2251 | 0.1703 | 26.9 |
| 4 | Tyler Colvin | 0.2120 | 0.0972 | 25.3 |
| 5 | Matt Wieters | 0.2512 | 0.2051 | 25.1 |
| 6 | Michael Bourn | 0.2469 | 0.2811 | 25.1 |
| 7 | Jemile Weeks | 0.1932 | 0.2500 | 25.1 |
Double Rate
Everybody Missed for Double Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Encarnación | 0.0923 |
0.0638
(16.3)
|
0.0625
(16.7)
|
| Michael Morse | 0.0976 |
0.0690
(17.8)
|
0.0714
(16.0)
|
| Ben Zobrist | 0.1029 |
0.0668
(25.9)
|
0.0657
(26.2)
|
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.0850 |
0.0535
(24.8)
|
0.0539
(24.0)
|
| Adam Lind | 0.0428 |
0.0840
(21.1)
|
0.0835
(21.2)
|
| Jeff Francoeur | 0.1004 |
0.0617
(26.9)
|
0.0677
(22.6)
|
| Nick Markakis | 0.0557 |
0.0853
(19.6)
|
0.0847
(19.6)
|
| Alex Avila | 0.1015 |
0.0632
(22.4)
|
0.0698
(18.4)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.1048 |
0.0848
(15.4)
|
0.0835
(15.8)
|
| Kelly Shoppach | 0.0222 |
0.0909
(16.8)
|
0.0970
(18.5)
|
| Mark Teixeira | 0.0580 |
0.0833
(15.7)
|
0.0841
(16.7)
|
| John Buck | 0.0444 |
0.0839
(19.7)
|
0.0823
(19.2)
|
| Vernon Wells | 0.0378 |
0.0748
(18.4)
|
0.0708
(16.6)
|
Individual Misses for Double Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Gordon | 0.0723 | 0.0991 | 20.1 |
| 2 | Albert Pujols | 0.0883 | 0.0591 | 17.5 |
| 3 | Dexter Fowler | 0.0702 | 0.0989 | 17.5 |
| 4 | Carlos Quentin | 0.0651 | 0.0975 | 16.8 |
| 5 | Adrián González | 0.0712 | 0.0920 | 16.5 |
| 6 | Martín Prado | 0.0833 | 0.0531 | 16.5 |
| 7 | Ben Revere | 0.0573 | 0.0218 | 15.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maicer Izturis | 0.0584 | 0.0914 | 17.1 |
| 2 | Carlos Beltrán | 0.0680 | 0.0942 | 16.6 |
| 3 | Chris Getz | 0.0573 | 0.0171 | 16.5 |
| 4 | Ryan Theriot | 0.0328 | 0.0637 | 15.8 |
| 5 | Reed Johnson | 0.0652 | 0.1209 | 15.2 |
| 6 | Yadier Molina | 0.0475 | 0.0751 | 15.2 |
| 7 | Peter Bourjos | 0.0439 | 0.0695 | 15.0 |
Triple Rate
Everybody Missed for Triple Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robinson Canó | 0.0138 |
0.0063
(5.5)
|
0.0058
(6.3)
|
| Andres Torres | 0.0040 |
0.0248
(8.1)
|
0.0269
(8.6)
|
| Dexter Fowler | 0.0424 |
0.0292
(7.6)
|
0.0327
(6.2)
|
| Carlos González | 0.0084 |
0.0186
(5.3)
|
0.0203
(5.7)
|
| José Reyes | 0.0323 |
0.0220
(6.3)
|
0.0222
(6.7)
|
| Seth Smith | 0.0240 |
0.0133
(5.9)
|
0.0140
(6.1)
|
| Wilson Betemit | 0.0186 |
0.0043
(5.3)
|
0.0043
(5.6)
|
| Austin Jackson | 0.0264 |
0.0187
(5.4)
|
0.0174
(6.9)
|
| Nick Hundley | 0.0251 |
0.0078
(5.5)
|
0.0080
(5.7)
|
| Jemile Weeks | 0.0230 |
0.0071
(7.1)
|
0.0136
(4.7)
|
| Dustin Ackley | 0.0279 |
0.0071
(8.0)
|
0.0161
(4.9)
|
| Shane Victorino | 0.0360 |
0.0200
(9.6)
|
0.0196
(10.3)
|
Individual Misses for Triple Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.0040 | 0.0155 | 7.2 |
| 2 | Alex Presley | 0.0067 | 0.0347 | 6.6 |
| 3 | Peter Bourjos | 0.0186 | 0.0294 | 6.2 |
| 4 | Cliff Pennington | 0.0161 | 0.0048 | 6.2 |
| 5 | Ryan Howard | 0.0120 | 0.0028 | 5.6 |
| 6 | Kelly Johnson | 0.0105 | 0.0192 | 5.6 |
| 7 | Jason Bay | 0.0144 | 0.0030 | 5.6 |
| 8 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 0.0000 | 0.0134 | 5.3 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Avila | 0.0000 | 0.0123 | 7.5 |
| 2 | Colby Rasmus | 0.0056 | 0.0173 | 6.9 |
| 3 | Jimmy Rollins | 0.0155 | 0.0040 | 6.4 |
| 4 | J.P. Arencibia | 0.0027 | 0.0138 | 6.1 |
| 5 | Tsuyoshi Nishioka | 0.0249 | 0.0000 | 5.7 |
| 6 | Ángel Pagán | 0.0201 | 0.0096 | 4.9 |
| 7 | Rafael Furcal | 0.0143 | 0.0000 | 4.8 |
| 8 | Fred Lewis | 0.0234 | 0.0000 | 4.6 |
Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Wieters | 0.1307 |
0.0898
(26.7)
|
0.1013
(20.1)
|
| Curtis Granderson | 0.1968 |
0.1426
(42.7)
|
0.1449
(40.8)
|
| Brennan Boesch | 0.1589 |
0.1034
(29.8)
|
0.0945
(33.8)
|
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.1626 |
0.1374
(24.0)
|
0.1370
(24.0)
|
| Ryan Braun | 0.1733 |
0.1459
(22.0)
|
0.1431
(23.5)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.1669 |
0.1332
(28.5)
|
0.1375
(25.2)
|
| Adrian Beltré | 0.1562 |
0.1226
(21.7)
|
0.1252
(20.0)
|
| Ryan Roberts | 0.1550 |
0.1152
(26.3)
|
0.1130
(27.3)
|
| Aubrey Huff | 0.0777 |
0.1304
(26.1)
|
0.1332
(28.0)
|
| Howie Kendrick | 0.1475 |
0.1189
(21.1)
|
0.1153
(23.0)
|
| Bobby Abreu | 0.0923 |
0.1365
(21.4)
|
0.1306
(18.2)
|
| José Reyes | 0.1724 |
0.1344
(26.7)
|
0.1418
(22.1)
|
| Melky Cabrera | 0.1445 |
0.1068
(32.0)
|
0.1002
(36.4)
|
| Adam Dunn | 0.0726 |
0.1248
(22.1)
|
0.1332
(26.5)
|
Individual Misses for Run Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayson Werth | 0.1497 | 0.1063 | 23.2 |
| 2 | Justin Upton | 0.1301 | 0.1558 | 22.4 |
| 3 | Mike Napoli | 0.1268 | 0.1667 | 20.5 |
| 4 | Casey McGehee | 0.1167 | 0.0767 | 19.5 |
| 5 | José Bautista | 0.1384 | 0.1603 | 19.3 |
| 6 | Adrián González | 0.1317 | 0.1510 | 19.3 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robinson Canó | 0.1263 | 0.1527 | 22.9 |
| 2 | Yadier Molina | 0.0714 | 0.1062 | 21.7 |
| 3 | Shane Victorino | 0.1350 | 0.1621 | 20.1 |
| 4 | Tsuyoshi Nishioka | 0.1459 | 0.0583 | 19.3 |
| 5 | Ben Zobrist | 0.1259 | 0.1469 | 19.0 |
| 6 | Andrew McCutchen | 0.1621 | 0.1283 | 18.0 |
RBI Rate
Everybody Missed for RBI Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Granderson | 0.1722 |
0.1107
(46.7)
|
0.1208
(39.5)
|
| Michael Morse | 0.1652 |
0.1307
(23.3)
|
0.1114
(34.2)
|
| Drew Stubbs | 0.0646 |
0.1199
(33.5)
|
0.1043
(23.1)
|
| Asdrúbal Cabrera | 0.1379 |
0.1002
(29.2)
|
0.0926
(34.1)
|
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.1434 |
0.0863
(46.3)
|
0.0835
(48.1)
|
| Robinson Canó | 0.1733 |
0.1333
(31.3)
|
0.1339
(30.7)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.1829 |
0.1316
(39.5)
|
0.1375
(35.2)
|
| Adrian Beltré | 0.2000 |
0.1297
(40.1)
|
0.1389
(35.1)
|
| Michael Young | 0.1538 |
0.1186
(28.4)
|
0.1159
(30.1)
|
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.1732 |
0.1296
(25.2)
|
0.1332
(23.3)
|
| Alex Avila | 0.1488 |
0.1091
(25.2)
|
0.1022
(28.8)
|
| Josh Willingham | 0.1741 |
0.1210
(33.3)
|
0.1184
(34.6)
|
| Adam Dunn | 0.0847 |
0.1504
(29.6)
|
0.1612
(35.1)
|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.1313 |
0.0983
(26.5)
|
0.1004
(24.8)
|
Individual Misses for RBI Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Morrison | 0.0847 | 0.1371 | 30.7 |
| 2 | J.P. Arencibia | 0.1116 | 0.1605 | 26.7 |
| 3 | Mark Trumbo | 0.1127 | 0.1518 | 25.9 |
| 4 | Jayson Werth | 0.1344 | 0.0894 | 25.3 |
| 5 | Andres Torres | 0.1149 | 0.0477 | 24.3 |
| 6 | Russell Martin | 0.0923 | 0.1366 | 23.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melky Cabrera | 0.0912 | 0.1232 | 26.7 |
| 2 | Todd Helton | 0.0928 | 0.1405 | 26.3 |
| 3 | Alex Rios | 0.1279 | 0.0772 | 25.6 |
| 4 | Pedro Alvarez | 0.1755 | 0.0725 | 25.5 |
| 5 | Mike Moustakas | 0.1520 | 0.0822 | 23.4 |
| 6 | Victor Martinez | 0.1399 | 0.1731 | 23.2 |
Stolen Base Rate
Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.2053 |
0.2892
(64.6)
|
0.3280
(89.2)
|
| Ryan Braun | 0.1908 |
0.0897
(60.8)
|
0.1078
(52.7)
|
| Juan Pierre | 0.1317 |
0.2614
(95.3)
|
0.2761
(102.1)
|
| Tony Campana | 0.5714 |
0.0736
(76.5)
|
0.0736
(77.3)
|
| Jeff Francoeur | 0.1517 |
0.0417
(69.3)
|
0.0355
(76.8)
|
| Coco Crisp | 0.3451 |
0.2323
(63.2)
|
0.2500
(55.9)
|
| Rajai Davis | 0.5313 |
0.3158
(71.3)
|
0.3534
(60.4)
|
| Erick Aybar | 0.2128 |
0.1042
(63.1)
|
0.1232
(54.7)
|
| Cameron Maybin | 0.2837 |
0.0816
(112.3)
|
0.1119
(98.0)
|
| Eduardo Núñez | 0.2785 |
0.1186
(52.5)
|
0.1409
(46.8)
|
| Jemile Weeks | 0.1964 |
0.0736
(51.7)
|
0.0899
(46.9)
|
| Aaron Hill | 0.1591 |
0.0407
(65.1)
|
0.0320
(73.0)
|
| Jason Bourgeois | 0.4493 |
0.1765
(67.6)
|
0.2126
(59.8)
|
Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Revere | 0.0536 | 0.2537 | 94.2 |
| 2 | Dee Strange-Gordon | 0.0736 | 0.3750 | 69.2 |
| 3 | Alcides Escobar | 0.0726 | 0.1926 | 69.2 |
| 4 | Sam Fuld | 0.0492 | 0.2469 | 66.9 |
| 5 | Jordan Schafer | 0.0526 | 0.2500 | 65.2 |
| 6 | Chase d'Arnaud | 0.0736 | 0.4286 | 52.9 |
| 7 | Craig Gentry | 0.0741 | 0.4000 | 49.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eric Young Jr. | 0.0736 | 0.3803 | 70.4 |
| 2 | Will Venable | 0.1333 | 0.2680 | 55.7 |
| 3 | Nyjer Morgan | 0.2345 | 0.1102 | 53.0 |
| 4 | Carl Crawford | 0.2635 | 0.1667 | 51.7 |
| 5 | Orlando Hudson | 0.0483 | 0.1532 | 48.0 |
| 6 | Grady Sizemore | 0.1622 | 0.0000 | 47.6 |
| 7 | Mike Aviles | 0.0776 | 0.2295 | 47.2 |
Batting Average
Everybody Missed for Batting Average
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Ortiz | 0.3086 |
0.2579
(35.1)
|
0.2600
(31.8)
|
| Casey McGehee | 0.2234 |
0.2827
(31.2)
|
0.2717
(26.5)
|
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.3212 |
0.2792
(36.1)
|
0.2840
(30.1)
|
| Michael Young | 0.3376 |
0.2899
(37.9)
|
0.2850
(39.0)
|
| Michael Bourn | 0.2942 |
0.2652
(26.1)
|
0.2589
(28.4)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.3239 |
0.2740
(39.3)
|
0.2710
(39.2)
|
| Alex Gordon | 0.3028 |
0.2437
(45.8)
|
0.2435
(43.7)
|
| José Bautista | 0.3021 |
0.2505
(38.6)
|
0.2489
(37.5)
|
| Hunter Pence | 0.3135 |
0.2755
(30.2)
|
0.2769
(27.1)
|
| José Reyes | 0.3371 |
0.2821
(36.4)
|
0.2843
(33.2)
|
| Alex Avila | 0.2953 |
0.2448
(31.8)
|
0.2388
(33.3)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.3444 |
0.3098
(28.8)
|
0.3037
(30.8)
|
| Mike Napoli | 0.3198 |
0.2563
(30.6)
|
0.2541
(30.1)
|
| Adam Dunn | 0.1590 |
0.2571
(45.1)
|
0.2515
(43.9)
|
| Melky Cabrera | 0.3055 |
0.2613
(36.3)
|
0.2695
(28.3)
|
Individual Misses for Batting Average
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrián González | 0.2830 | 0.3381 | 44.6 |
| 2 | Casey Kotchman | 0.2500 | 0.3060 | 35.6 |
| 3 | Emilio Bonifácio | 0.2547 | 0.2956 | 30.9 |
| 4 | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.3175 | 0.2718 | 27.8 |
| 5 | Jhonny Peralta | 0.2583 | 0.2990 | 27.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jemile Weeks | 0.2176 | 0.3030 | 39.0 |
| 2 | Kelly Johnson | 0.2749 | 0.2220 | 29.9 |
| 3 | Carl Crawford | 0.3123 | 0.2549 | 28.7 |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | 0.2857 | 0.3296 | 28.5 |
| 5 | Ryan Braun | 0.2947 | 0.3321 | 26.1 |
On-Base Percentage
Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kotchman | 0.3783 |
0.3143
(42.0)
|
0.3299
(30.2)
|
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.3760 |
0.3355
(37.5)
|
0.3362
(33.0)
|
| Ryan Braun | 0.3975 |
0.3610
(29.6)
|
0.3547
(30.2)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.3991 |
0.3311
(54.2)
|
0.3266
(53.6)
|
| Michael Young | 0.3803 |
0.3432
(32.8)
|
0.3338
(35.6)
|
| José Bautista | 0.4473 |
0.3519
(69.5)
|
0.3619
(59.4)
|
| Emilio Bonifácio | 0.3603 |
0.3107
(38.6)
|
0.3144
(32.8)
|
| Hunter Pence | 0.3698 |
0.3300
(33.7)
|
0.3257
(33.0)
|
| José Reyes | 0.3836 |
0.3359
(34.2)
|
0.3369
(30.4)
|
| Alex Avila | 0.3887 |
0.3264
(40.2)
|
0.3200
(40.8)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.4477 |
0.3859
(49.8)
|
0.3882
(44.5)
|
| Mike Napoli | 0.4144 |
0.3360
(38.4)
|
0.3413
(33.8)
|
| Adam Dunn | 0.2923 |
0.3716
(34.0)
|
0.3832
(42.5)
|
| Albert Pujols | 0.3656 |
0.4211
(29.2)
|
0.4191
(31.4)
|
| Vernon Wells | 0.2476 |
0.3276
(36.7)
|
0.3127
(31.6)
|
| Chone Figgins | 0.2412 |
0.3602
(33.9)
|
0.3528
(33.3)
|
Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Gordon | 0.3324 | 0.3765 | 37.7 |
| 2 | David Ortiz | 0.3526 | 0.3983 | 34.1 |
| 3 | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.3632 | 0.3097 | 30.9 |
| 4 | Casey McGehee | 0.3386 | 0.2800 | 28.8 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carl Crawford | 0.3595 | 0.2892 | 35.1 |
| 2 | Jason Heyward | 0.3927 | 0.3194 | 31.0 |
| 3 | Jemile Weeks | 0.2775 | 0.3402 | 29.7 |
| 4 | Alex Rios | 0.3212 | 0.2649 | 29.0 |
Slugging Percentage
Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Granderson | 0.5523 |
0.4597
(75.9)
|
0.4936
(48.0)
|
| Michael Morse | 0.5498 |
0.4700
(55.8)
|
0.4569
(59.7)
|
| Asdrúbal Cabrera | 0.4603 |
0.3906
(58.0)
|
0.3898
(54.2)
|
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.5515 |
0.3993
(124.1)
|
0.3967
(121.2)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.5864 |
0.4592
(99.6)
|
0.4580
(95.9)
|
| Ryan Braun | 0.5968 |
0.5189
(59.9)
|
0.5250
(52.0)
|
| Alex Gordon | 0.5025 |
0.3987
(83.5)
|
0.4073
(73.1)
|
| José Bautista | 0.6082 |
0.5051
(78.9)
|
0.5244
(61.9)
|
| Jeff Francoeur | 0.4759 |
0.3962
(63.6)
|
0.4109
(49.7)
|
| Jayson Werth | 0.3886 |
0.5000
(61.1)
|
0.4751
(49.1)
|
| Alex Avila | 0.5065 |
0.3953
(70.8)
|
0.3652
(83.8)
|
| Melky Cabrera | 0.4696 |
0.3801
(75.4)
|
0.3832
(68.6)
|
| Adam Dunn | 0.2771 |
0.5122
(108.0)
|
0.5392
(124.6)
|
| Mike Napoli | 0.6314 |
0.4783
(73.7)
|
0.5055
(59.1)
|
| Yadier Molina | 0.4653 |
0.3761
(55.2)
|
0.3656
(57.2)
|
Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Trumbo | 0.3842 | 0.4768 | 63.0 |
| 2 | Adrian Beltré | 0.4662 | 0.5606 | 58.7 |
| 3 | J.J. Hardy | 0.4128 | 0.4915 | 54.4 |
| 4 | Casey McGehee | 0.4538 | 0.3462 | 54.2 |
| 5 | Justin Upton | 0.4675 | 0.5287 | 52.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lance Berkman | 0.4492 | 0.5471 | 63.9 |
| 2 | Carlos Beltrán | 0.4469 | 0.5250 | 53.2 |
| 3 | Justin Morneau | 0.5275 | 0.3333 | 52.8 |
| 4 | Jemile Weeks | 0.3113 | 0.4212 | 52.8 |
| 5 | Aubrey Huff | 0.4646 | 0.3704 | 48.3 |
Pitching Projection Accuracy
Batters Faced (BF)
Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Garland | 230 |
764
(534.0)
|
820
(590.0)
|
| Dallas Braden | 73 |
706
(633.0)
|
700
(627.0)
|
| Scott Kazmir | 14 |
668
(654.0)
|
686
(672.0)
|
| Craig Stammen | 38 |
538
(500.0)
|
645
(607.0)
|
| Scott Feldman | 129 |
629
(500.0)
|
723
(594.0)
|
Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Vogelsong | 1 | 752 | 751.0 |
| 2 | Michael Pineda | 1 | 696 | 695.0 |
| 3 | Zack Britton | 1 | 666 | 665.0 |
| 4 | Tyler Chatwood | 1 | 633 | 632.0 |
| 5 | Josh Collmenter | 1 | 621 | 620.0 |
| 6 | Joe Blanton | 716 | 180 | 536.0 |
| 7 | Barry Zito | 758 | 225 | 533.0 |
| 8 | Kevin Millwood | 747 | 222 | 525.0 |
| 9 | Jeremy Hellickson | 250 | 774 | 524.0 |
| 10 | Dave Bush | 682 | 166 | 516.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elih Villanueva | 726 | 20 | 706.0 |
| 2 | Eric Hacker | 695 | 22 | 673.0 |
| 3 | Corey Kluber | 697 | 25 | 672.0 |
| 4 | Alan Johnson | 690 | 20 | 670.0 |
| 5 | Brandon Dickson | 690 | 34 | 656.0 |
| 6 | Alex Torres | 666 | 39 | 627.0 |
| 7 | Aaron Thompson | 663 | 41 | 622.0 |
| 8 | Michael Crotta | 678 | 56 | 622.0 |
| 9 | Andy Oliver | 668 | 49 | 619.0 |
| 10 | Adam Wilk | 673 | 57 | 616.0 |
wOBA
Everybody Missed for wOBA
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Harrison | 0.3009 |
0.3463
(32.3)
|
0.3489
(30.9)
|
| John Lackey | 0.3725 |
0.3253
(37.7)
|
0.3218
(43.6)
|
| Brian Matusz | 0.4750 |
0.3225
(38.2)
|
0.3252
(38.6)
|
| Bronson Arroyo | 0.3657 |
0.3150
(46.4)
|
0.3191
(46.6)
|
| Justin Verlander | 0.2469 |
0.2973
(45.3)
|
0.2863
(30.4)
|
| Josh Beckett | 0.2692 |
0.3298
(43.8)
|
0.3182
(31.5)
|
| Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.3313 |
0.2922
(35.0)
|
0.2846
(44.9)
|
| James Shields | 0.2758 |
0.3376
(56.8)
|
0.3288
(43.9)
|
| Doug Fister | 0.2722 |
0.3155
(34.8)
|
0.3358
(48.7)
|
Individual Misses for wOBA
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Duensing | 0.3061 | 0.3583 | 39.7 |
| 2 | Cole Hamels | 0.3108 | 0.2615 | 38.9 |
| 3 | Johnny Cueto | 0.3289 | 0.2658 | 37.6 |
| 4 | Clayton Kershaw | 0.2895 | 0.2463 | 36.2 |
| 5 | Kyle Lohse | 0.3456 | 0.2955 | 36.1 |
| 6 | Tyler Chatwood | 0.3156 | 0.3649 | 33.5 |
| 7 | Roy Halladay | 0.2903 | 0.2545 | 30.1 |
| 8 | Danny Duffy | 0.3156 | 0.3751 | 29.9 |
| 9 | Jered Weaver | 0.2988 | 0.2638 | 29.1 |
| 10 | Dan Haren | 0.3058 | 0.2726 | 28.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Humber | 0.3985 | 0.2884 | 69.1 |
| 2 | Ryan Vogelsong | 0.3830 | 0.2961 | 59.4 |
| 3 | Guillermo Moscoso | 0.3595 | 0.2739 | 40.9 |
| 4 | Max Scherzer | 0.2997 | 0.3390 | 39.4 |
| 5 | Josh Collmenter | 0.3508 | 0.2833 | 37.0 |
| 6 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.3004 | 0.3327 | 35.8 |
| 7 | Ryan Dempster | 0.3105 | 0.3417 | 34.5 |
| 8 | Cory Luebke | 0.3385 | 0.2703 | 33.4 |
| 9 | Chad Billingsley | 0.2909 | 0.3206 | 31.2 |
| 10 | Brad Penny | 0.3350 | 0.3657 | 31.1 |
Strikeout Rate
Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Garza | 0.2348 |
0.1876
(39.2)
|
0.1868
(38.8)
|
| Carl Pavano | 0.1068 |
0.1514
(43.1)
|
0.1469
(40.1)
|
| Cory Luebke | 0.2775 |
0.1901
(48.2)
|
0.1507
(69.3)
|
| Jason Hammel | 0.1272 |
0.1768
(37.0)
|
0.1782
(39.0)
|
| Cliff Lee | 0.2587 |
0.1984
(55.0)
|
0.2112
(42.1)
|
| Michael Pineda | 0.2486 |
0.1862
(43.1)
|
0.1800
(46.4)
|
| Brandon Beachy | 0.2860 |
0.1873
(58.0)
|
0.2024
(48.3)
|
| Ricky Nolasco | 0.1661 |
0.2187
(47.3)
|
0.2315
(59.9)
|
| Aníbal Sánchez | 0.2434 |
0.1860
(47.2)
|
0.1879
(44.5)
|
| Brad Penny | 0.0922 |
0.1551
(50.9)
|
0.1380
(38.3)
|
Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Craig Kimbrel | 0.2293 | 0.4150 | 56.7 |
| 2 | Zack Greinke | 0.2149 | 0.2811 | 47.0 |
| 3 | Kenley Jansen | 0.2262 | 0.4404 | 46.6 |
| 4 | Tyler Chatwood | 0.1862 | 0.1169 | 44.2 |
| 5 | Sergio Santos | 0.2000 | 0.3538 | 39.9 |
| 6 | Jeff Francis | 0.1621 | 0.1133 | 39.6 |
| 7 | Kevin Correia | 0.1731 | 0.1167 | 37.6 |
| 8 | James Shields | 0.1924 | 0.2308 | 37.0 |
| 9 | Kyle McClellan | 0.1852 | 0.1252 | 36.7 |
| 10 | David Robertson | 0.2322 | 0.3676 | 36.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madison Bumgarner | 0.1516 | 0.2263 | 61.5 |
| 2 | Bartolo Colon | 0.1170 | 0.1945 | 52.6 |
| 3 | Alexi Ogando | 0.2454 | 0.1818 | 45.3 |
| 4 | Jeremy Hellickson | 0.2070 | 0.1512 | 44.6 |
| 5 | Vance Worley | 0.1348 | 0.2152 | 43.5 |
| 6 | Carlos Villanueva | 0.2382 | 0.1498 | 41.0 |
| 7 | Max Scherzer | 0.2552 | 0.2089 | 40.1 |
| 8 | Koji Uehara | 0.1862 | 0.3498 | 39.3 |
| 9 | Vinnie Pestano | 0.1818 | 0.3360 | 38.1 |
| 10 | Glen Perkins | 0.1163 | 0.2569 | 35.1 |
Walk Rate
Everybody Missed for Walk Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime García | 0.0605 |
0.0909
(22.9)
|
0.0946
(22.8)
|
| Yovani Gallardo | 0.0682 |
0.0995
(24.8)
|
0.0999
(21.8)
|
| Josh Collmenter | 0.0451 |
0.0811
(20.7)
|
0.1113
(37.1)
|
| Jason Hammel | 0.0920 |
0.0681
(19.6)
|
0.0590
(29.2)
|
| Brandon McCarthy | 0.0362 |
0.0861
(32.6)
|
0.0791
(25.1)
|
| Clayton Kershaw | 0.0592 |
0.1032
(37.8)
|
0.1058
(36.6)
|
| Jordan Zimmermann | 0.0468 |
0.0804
(20.5)
|
0.0871
(22.4)
|
| Josh Tomlin | 0.0317 |
0.0775
(28.6)
|
0.0782
(26.5)
|
| Francisco Liriano | 0.1269 |
0.0858
(25.9)
|
0.0824
(30.1)
|
| Ian Kennedy | 0.0611 |
0.0893
(23.0)
|
0.0903
(20.4)
|
Individual Misses for Walk Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Drabek | 0.0831 | 0.1507 | 25.6 |
| 2 | Tim Collins | 0.0811 | 0.1627 | 24.9 |
| 3 | Aroldis Chapman | 0.0863 | 0.1981 | 23.7 |
| 4 | Daniel Hudson | 0.0813 | 0.0543 | 22.4 |
| 5 | Tyler Chatwood | 0.0811 | 0.1122 | 21.3 |
| 6 | Henry Alberto Rodriguez | 0.0914 | 0.1525 | 18.8 |
| 7 | David Price | 0.0916 | 0.0686 | 18.7 |
| 8 | Kevin Correia | 0.0896 | 0.0591 | 18.4 |
| 9 | Mike Leake | 0.0832 | 0.0548 | 17.8 |
| 10 | Justin Masterson | 0.0938 | 0.0716 | 17.8 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Vogelsong | 0.1591 | 0.0811 | 53.8 |
| 2 | Alexi Ogando | 0.1136 | 0.0620 | 31.2 |
| 3 | Dillon Gee | 0.0703 | 0.1006 | 25.9 |
| 4 | Craig Kimbrel | 0.1888 | 0.1046 | 23.8 |
| 5 | Kevin Gregg | 0.0672 | 0.1455 | 23.3 |
| 6 | Nick Blackburn | 0.0542 | 0.0806 | 22.0 |
| 7 | Dontrelle Willis | 0.1807 | 0.1108 | 21.2 |
| 8 | James Shields | 0.0524 | 0.0667 | 20.2 |
| 9 | J.A. Happ | 0.0967 | 0.1189 | 20.0 |
| 10 | Tim Lincecum | 0.0811 | 0.0956 | 18.9 |
Hit By Pitch Rate
Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Marcum | 0.0000 |
0.0092
(7.6)
|
0.0087
(6.1)
|
| Randy Wolf | 0.0144 |
0.0089
(4.9)
|
0.0094
(5.6)
|
| John Lackey | 0.0256 |
0.0102
(11.3)
|
0.0115
(11.3)
|
| Brandon Morrow | 0.0154 |
0.0091
(4.9)
|
0.0092
(5.8)
|
| Erik Bedard | 0.0018 |
0.0104
(4.7)
|
0.0127
(5.2)
|
| Jhoulys Chacín | 0.0048 |
0.0116
(5.7)
|
0.0141
(6.7)
|
| Dillon Gee | 0.0198 |
0.0060
(9.7)
|
0.0108
(7.2)
|
| Gavin Floyd | 0.0138 |
0.0068
(5.5)
|
0.0063
(7.0)
|
| Alfredo Aceves | 0.0316 |
0.0116
(9.5)
|
0.0122
(9.8)
|
| Tim Hudson | 0.0170 |
0.0084
(7.5)
|
0.0080
(9.0)
|
| Ernesto Frieri | 0.0326 |
0.0056
(7.4)
|
0.0104
(6.5)
|
| Alex Burnett | 0.0356 |
0.0091
(5.9)
|
0.0131
(5.3)
|
Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Carpenter | 0.0114 | 0.0060 | 5.5 |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | 0.0085 | 0.0031 | 5.3 |
| 3 | Jake Westbrook | 0.0089 | 0.0025 | 5.3 |
| 4 | Matt Harrison | 0.0080 | 0.0013 | 5.2 |
| 5 | Doug Fister | 0.0077 | 0.0137 | 5.2 |
| 6 | Chris Volstad | 0.0083 | 0.0014 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Juan Abreu | 0.0084 | 0.1471 | 4.7 |
| 8 | Matt Garza | 0.0091 | 0.0036 | 4.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Britton | 0.0142 | 0.0015 | 7.6 |
| 2 | Matt Cain | 0.0044 | 0.0099 | 6.1 |
| 3 | Ricky Romero | 0.0098 | 0.0153 | 6.1 |
| 4 | Brandon McCarthy | 0.0095 | 0.0000 | 5.7 |
| 5 | Ted Lilly | 0.0053 | 0.0112 | 5.7 |
| 6 | Cory Luebke | 0.0147 | 0.0036 | 5.5 |
| 7 | R.A. Dickey | 0.0056 | 0.0103 | 5.2 |
| 8 | Roberto Hernandez | 0.0122 | 0.0168 | 4.8 |
Home Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Garza | 0.0243 |
0.0412
(13.6)
|
0.0423
(13.9)
|
| Yovani Gallardo | 0.0452 |
0.0322
(11.9)
|
0.0323
(12.3)
|
| Johnny Cueto | 0.0170 |
0.0389
(13.3)
|
0.0392
(13.2)
|
| Matt Cain | 0.0137 |
0.0344
(18.0)
|
0.0308
(14.3)
|
| Jake Arrieta | 0.0572 |
0.0296
(14.8)
|
0.0364
(11.6)
|
| Edinson Volquez | 0.0601 |
0.0326
(13.8)
|
0.0377
(11.6)
|
| Charlie Morton | 0.0105 |
0.0384
(20.8)
|
0.0328
(16.1)
|
| Randy Wells | 0.0509 |
0.0306
(12.2)
|
0.0316
(12.1)
|
| Bronson Arroyo | 0.0661 |
0.0416
(21.6)
|
0.0413
(22.3)
|
| A.J. Burnett | 0.0542 |
0.0387
(13.6)
|
0.0396
(13.3)
|
| Brian Matusz | 0.0984 |
0.0367
(15.3)
|
0.0369
(15.4)
|
| Roy Halladay | 0.0148 |
0.0309
(14.3)
|
0.0316
(14.4)
|
| Colby Lewis | 0.0576 |
0.0362
(18.5)
|
0.0419
(14.3)
|
Individual Misses for Home Run Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Zimmermann | 0.0455 | 0.0240 | 13.7 |
| 2 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.0441 | 0.0287 | 13.0 |
| 3 | Alex White | 0.0339 | 0.0877 | 12.9 |
| 4 | James McDonald | 0.0293 | 0.0455 | 12.8 |
| 5 | Matt Harrison | 0.0389 | 0.0221 | 12.4 |
| 6 | Madison Bumgarner | 0.0350 | 0.0199 | 12.1 |
| 7 | Justin Masterson | 0.0299 | 0.0163 | 11.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Humber | 0.0621 | 0.0273 | 22.6 |
| 2 | Edwin Jackson | 0.0435 | 0.0247 | 15.1 |
| 3 | Brandon McCarthy | 0.0422 | 0.0203 | 14.2 |
| 4 | Max Scherzer | 0.0346 | 0.0487 | 12.9 |
| 5 | Tommy Hanson | 0.0277 | 0.0487 | 12.1 |
| 6 | Doug Fister | 0.0314 | 0.0162 | 12.1 |
| 7 | Anthony Vasquez | 0.0300 | 0.1083 | 11.6 |
BABIP
Everybody Missed for BABIP
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Garza | 0.3060 |
0.2748
(28.1)
|
0.2761
(28.8)
|
| Félix Hernández | 0.3066 |
0.2793
(28.5)
|
0.2823
(27.7)
|
| Jered Weaver | 0.2496 |
0.2831
(29.0)
|
0.2847
(28.4)
|
| Guillermo Moscoso | 0.2211 |
0.2963
(38.4)
|
0.3174
(48.3)
|
| Chris Carpenter | 0.3118 |
0.2792
(34.7)
|
0.2822
(33.9)
|
| Edwin Jackson | 0.3302 |
0.2980
(29.6)
|
0.2943
(34.7)
|
| Justin Verlander | 0.2362 |
0.2980
(57.7)
|
0.2949
(52.6)
|
| Josh Beckett | 0.2451 |
0.3112
(49.0)
|
0.3106
(46.8)
|
| Jeremy Hellickson | 0.2232 |
0.2874
(47.9)
|
0.2941
(51.4)
|
| Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.3141 |
0.2822
(28.0)
|
0.2790
(32.5)
|
| Ricky Romero | 0.2423 |
0.3031
(53.8)
|
0.3065
(54.7)
|
| James Shields | 0.2584 |
0.3160
(54.0)
|
0.3127
(48.6)
|
| Trevor Cahill | 0.3023 |
0.2608
(39.4)
|
0.2718
(31.5)
|
| Ryan Dempster | 0.3241 |
0.2950
(27.6)
|
0.2919
(32.3)
|
| CC Sabathia | 0.3179 |
0.2847
(34.9)
|
0.2888
(33.0)
|
Individual Misses for BABIP
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Duensing | 0.2819 | 0.3295 | 35.4 |
| 2 | Kyle Lohse | 0.3140 | 0.2687 | 33.4 |
| 3 | Cole Hamels | 0.2942 | 0.2551 | 31.4 |
| 4 | Daniel Hudson | 0.2673 | 0.2954 | 27.9 |
| 5 | Antonio Bastardo | 0.3033 | 0.1789 | 27.5 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.2940 | 0.3314 | 37.2 |
| 2 | Ryan Vogelsong | 0.3333 | 0.2801 | 36.7 |
| 3 | Madison Bumgarner | 0.2882 | 0.3220 | 32.3 |
| 4 | John Lackey | 0.3025 | 0.3389 | 30.3 |
| 5 | Doug Fister | 0.3086 | 0.2720 | 28.1 |
Single Rate
Everybody Missed for Single Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Garza | 0.2438 |
0.2056
(32.8)
|
0.2059
(34.4)
|
| Félix Hernández | 0.2558 |
0.2191
(36.3)
|
0.2145
(42.8)
|
| Jhoulys Chacín | 0.1767 |
0.2232
(37.7)
|
0.2173
(31.0)
|
| Luke Hochevar | 0.1854 |
0.2234
(31.0)
|
0.2304
(35.0)
|
| Kyle Lohse | 0.1841 |
0.2243
(30.4)
|
0.2272
(31.0)
|
| Chris Carpenter | 0.2610 |
0.2102
(51.4)
|
0.2147
(49.2)
|
| Ricky Nolasco | 0.2500 |
0.2198
(27.7)
|
0.2191
(30.3)
|
| Justin Verlander | 0.1827 |
0.2230
(38.2)
|
0.2237
(36.8)
|
| Jeremy Hellickson | 0.1446 |
0.2184
(56.4)
|
0.2225
(57.9)
|
| Ricky Romero | 0.1761 |
0.2311
(49.6)
|
0.2323
(48.7)
|
| James Shields | 0.2003 |
0.2298
(27.9)
|
0.2337
(29.6)
|
| Trevor Cahill | 0.2357 |
0.1996
(33.3)
|
0.2026
(32.6)
|
| CC Sabathia | 0.2552 |
0.2179
(37.6)
|
0.2189
(38.8)
|
Individual Misses for Single Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Lincecum | 0.2312 | 0.1937 | 32.9 |
| 2 | A.J. Burnett | 0.2294 | 0.1978 | 25.7 |
| 3 | Alfredo Aceves | 0.2114 | 0.1581 | 24.8 |
| 4 | John Lackey | 0.2232 | 0.2556 | 24.7 |
| 5 | Tyler Chatwood | 0.2190 | 0.2564 | 24.3 |
| 6 | Antonio Bastardo | 0.2295 | 0.1220 | 24.0 |
| 7 | Mike Leake | 0.2389 | 0.2036 | 23.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Moscoso | 0.2360 | 0.1658 | 35.2 |
| 2 | Roy Halladay | 0.2193 | 0.2515 | 33.0 |
| 3 | Felipe Paulino | 0.2293 | 0.2769 | 30.4 |
| 4 | Madison Bumgarner | 0.2195 | 0.2492 | 27.7 |
| 5 | Derek Holland | 0.2147 | 0.2423 | 25.9 |
| 6 | Edwin Jackson | 0.2195 | 0.2464 | 25.9 |
| 7 | Jaime García | 0.2206 | 0.2488 | 25.8 |
Double Rate
Everybody Missed for Double Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yovani Gallardo | 0.0473 |
0.0832
(30.0)
|
0.0667
(15.3)
|
| Tim Lincecum | 0.0838 |
0.0573
(24.9)
|
0.0630
(20.2)
|
| Zack Greinke | 0.0919 |
0.0662
(19.3)
|
0.0663
(19.5)
|
| Roberto Hernandez | 0.0828 |
0.0608
(19.3)
|
0.0651
(16.1)
|
| Josh Beckett | 0.0451 |
0.0784
(24.6)
|
0.0705
(18.2)
|
| J.A. Happ | 0.0873 |
0.0638
(17.2)
|
0.0659
(16.2)
|
| Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.0836 |
0.0636
(17.5)
|
0.0605
(20.4)
|
| James Shields | 0.0535 |
0.0772
(21.9)
|
0.0712
(15.6)
|
| John Axford | 0.0158 |
0.0738
(17.3)
|
0.0678
(15.4)
|
| Chris Capuano | 0.0929 |
0.0721
(17.6)
|
0.0663
(22.7)
|
| Roy Halladay | 0.0407 |
0.0605
(17.4)
|
0.0653
(21.5)
|
| Ryan Dempster | 0.0879 |
0.0632
(22.8)
|
0.0659
(20.9)
|
| Alfredo Simon | 0.1092 |
0.0577
(26.3)
|
0.0684
(21.2)
|
Individual Misses for Double Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Hudson | 0.0528 | 0.0783 | 24.6 |
| 2 | Brian Duensing | 0.0534 | 0.0843 | 22.8 |
| 3 | Cole Hamels | 0.0731 | 0.0476 | 20.6 |
| 4 | Francisco Liriano | 0.0748 | 0.0418 | 18.8 |
| 5 | Justin Verlander | 0.0676 | 0.0488 | 17.1 |
| 6 | Derek Holland | 0.0824 | 0.0614 | 16.7 |
| 7 | Chris Carpenter | 0.0618 | 0.0453 | 15.3 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Vogelsong | 0.0754 | 0.0451 | 21.5 |
| 2 | Gio González | 0.0677 | 0.0417 | 21.0 |
| 3 | Jeremy Guthrie | 0.0639 | 0.0836 | 19.0 |
| 4 | Tim Wakefield | 0.0645 | 0.0893 | 17.9 |
| 5 | A.J. Burnett | 0.0694 | 0.0887 | 17.5 |
| 6 | Brad Bergesen | 0.0669 | 0.1032 | 17.1 |
| 7 | Félix Hernández | 0.0615 | 0.0431 | 16.1 |
Triple Rate
Everybody Missed for Triple Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto | 0.0000 |
0.0077
(4.8)
|
0.0071
(4.7)
|
| Mat Latos | 0.0168 |
0.0044
(10.0)
|
0.0059
(8.4)
|
| Danny Duffy | 0.0253 |
0.0069
(8.8)
|
0.0080
(8.1)
|
| Jhoulys Chacín | 0.0159 |
0.0060
(8.3)
|
0.0074
(6.7)
|
| Jeff Karstens | 0.0000 |
0.0107
(7.1)
|
0.0070
(4.9)
|
| Kerry Wood | 0.0294 |
0.0069
(5.1)
|
0.0077
(4.8)
|
| Cory Gearrin | 0.0652 |
0.0069
(5.0)
|
0.0054
(5.1)
|
| Jeff Niemann | 0.0147 |
0.0061
(5.0)
|
0.0059
(4.9)
|
| Josh Beckett | 0.0000 |
0.0071
(5.4)
|
0.0066
(5.3)
|
| Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.0223 |
0.0075
(12.3)
|
0.0067
(12.5)
|
| Aaron Cook | 0.0175 |
0.0065
(4.9)
|
0.0058
(5.0)
|
| Ryan Dempster | 0.0138 |
0.0057
(7.2)
|
0.0056
(6.9)
|
| Livan Hernandez | 0.0137 |
0.0067
(5.3)
|
0.0063
(5.3)
|
Individual Misses for Triple Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Lincecum | 0.0099 | 0.0035 | 5.7 |
| 2 | Chad Billingsley | 0.0099 | 0.0035 | 5.2 |
| 3 | Guillermo Moscoso | 0.0123 | 0.0025 | 5.1 |
| 4 | Joel Pineiro | 0.0119 | 0.0039 | 5.0 |
| 5 | Bartolo Colon | 0.0050 | 0.0121 | 5.0 |
| 6 | Jason Marquis | 0.0085 | 0.0000 | 4.9 |
| 7 | Rick Porcello | 0.0056 | 0.0115 | 4.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Hochevar | 0.0065 | 0.0179 | 9.2 |
| 2 | Derek Holland | 0.0082 | 0.0017 | 5.7 |
| 3 | Vinnie Pestano | 0.0067 | 0.0299 | 5.7 |
| 4 | Jake Westbrook | 0.0062 | 0.0130 | 5.3 |
| 5 | Aníbal Sánchez | 0.0067 | 0.0130 | 4.9 |
| 6 | Zack Greinke | 0.0066 | 0.0135 | 4.6 |
| 7 | Roberto Hernandez | 0.0067 | 0.0016 | 4.5 |
Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jered Weaver | 0.0702 |
0.1024
(28.0)
|
0.1017
(25.4)
|
| John Lackey | 0.1602 |
0.1175
(33.1)
|
0.1151
(36.5)
|
| Brian Matusz | 0.2449 |
0.1163
(32.0)
|
0.1195
(31.7)
|
| Ryan Vogelsong | 0.0824 |
0.1123
(21.0)
|
0.1490
(47.0)
|
| Tim Wakefield | 0.1625 |
0.1297
(23.5)
|
0.1296
(25.0)
|
| J.A. Happ | 0.1476 |
0.0987
(35.4)
|
0.1183
(23.2)
|
| Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.1350 |
0.0961
(33.6)
|
0.0865
(43.2)
|
| James Shields | 0.0851 |
0.1274
(39.3)
|
0.1223
(32.3)
|
| Doug Fister | 0.0869 |
0.1175
(25.1)
|
0.1276
(32.1)
|
Individual Misses for Run Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Duensing | 0.0961 | 0.1435 | 35.1 |
| 2 | Charlie Morton | 0.1504 | 0.1066 | 32.2 |
| 3 | Josh Beckett | 0.1258 | 0.0847 | 30.0 |
| 4 | Justin Verlander | 0.1068 | 0.0753 | 28.6 |
| 5 | Ian Kennedy | 0.1146 | 0.0811 | 28.4 |
| 6 | Bronson Arroyo | 0.1137 | 0.1392 | 23.5 |
| 7 | Eric O'Flaherty | 0.1096 | 0.0299 | 23.4 |
| 8 | Kyle Lohse | 0.1353 | 0.1032 | 23.4 |
| 9 | Justin Masterson | 0.1256 | 0.0980 | 23.3 |
| 10 | Jeremy Hellickson | 0.1120 | 0.0827 | 21.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Humber | 0.1611 | 0.1050 | 35.2 |
| 2 | Félix Hernández | 0.0801 | 0.1027 | 25.6 |
| 3 | Edinson Volquez | 0.1002 | 0.1472 | 25.0 |
| 4 | Chad Billingsley | 0.0925 | 0.1182 | 24.7 |
| 5 | Roberto Hernandez | 0.1248 | 0.1501 | 24.4 |
| 6 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.1087 | 0.1313 | 23.7 |
| 7 | Vance Worley | 0.1319 | 0.0850 | 23.7 |
| 8 | Aaron Crow | 0.1660 | 0.0752 | 23.1 |
| 9 | Max Scherzer | 0.0976 | 0.1212 | 23.0 |
| 10 | Ryan Dempster | 0.1041 | 0.1260 | 22.8 |
Earned Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto | 0.0634 |
0.1060
(25.5)
|
0.1042
(22.1)
|
| John Lackey | 0.1534 |
0.1073
(36.0)
|
0.1074
(38.4)
|
| Matt Harrison | 0.0907 |
0.1223
(22.7)
|
0.1242
(21.4)
|
| Doug Fister | 0.0777 |
0.1082
(24.7)
|
0.1187
(30.8)
|
| Ryan Vogelsong | 0.0718 |
0.1029
(21.7)
|
0.1389
(46.1)
|
| Bronson Arroyo | 0.1310 |
0.1073
(22.2)
|
0.1110
(22.0)
|
| Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.1192 |
0.0911
(25.0)
|
0.0811
(36.1)
|
| James Shields | 0.0800 |
0.1159
(32.8)
|
0.1146
(28.2)
|
| Brian Matusz | 0.2408 |
0.1105
(32.5)
|
0.1116
(33.1)
|
| Ryan Dempster | 0.1226 |
0.0982
(23.5)
|
0.0979
(26.8)
|
Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Duensing | 0.0895 | 0.1322 | 32.0 |
| 2 | J.A. Happ | 0.0924 | 0.1332 | 30.1 |
| 3 | Charlie Morton | 0.1362 | 0.0949 | 30.0 |
| 4 | Josh Beckett | 0.1177 | 0.0808 | 26.5 |
| 5 | Justin Verlander | 0.0983 | 0.0691 | 26.0 |
| 6 | Jered Weaver | 0.0961 | 0.0680 | 23.9 |
| 7 | Ian Kennedy | 0.1071 | 0.0789 | 23.4 |
| 8 | Kyle Lohse | 0.1235 | 0.0916 | 23.0 |
| 9 | Justin Masterson | 0.1120 | 0.0848 | 22.6 |
| 10 | Eric O'Flaherty | 0.0965 | 0.0266 | 20.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Humber | 0.1512 | 0.1006 | 30.3 |
| 2 | Edinson Volquez | 0.0938 | 0.1411 | 25.9 |
| 3 | Max Scherzer | 0.0907 | 0.1152 | 25.3 |
| 4 | Félix Hernández | 0.0749 | 0.0934 | 23.3 |
| 5 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.1010 | 0.1201 | 22.1 |
| 6 | Jeff Karstens | 0.1297 | 0.0913 | 21.8 |
| 7 | Carlos Zambrano | 0.0945 | 0.1230 | 21.7 |
| 8 | Vance Worley | 0.1232 | 0.0796 | 21.0 |
| 9 | Aaron Crow | 0.1555 | 0.0714 | 20.8 |
| 10 | Chad Billingsley | 0.0868 | 0.1062 | 20.8 |
Win Rate
Everybody Missed for Win Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Holland | 0.5000 |
0.1724
(231.8)
|
0.3704
(127.0)
|
| Matt Harrison | 0.4516 |
0.1563
(187.4)
|
0.1724
(231.8)
|
| Clayton Kershaw | 0.6364 |
0.2381
(315.2)
|
0.4242
(212.6)
|
| Kyle Lohse | 0.4667 |
0.2000
(165.9)
|
0.3182
(131.4)
|
| Justin Verlander | 0.7059 |
0.3590
(285.2)
|
0.5625
(159.3)
|
| Iván Nova | 0.5714 |
0.1111
(287.0)
|
0.2500
(241.1)
|
| Bruce Chen | 0.4800 |
0.2105
(141.8)
|
0.2400
(170.7)
|
| Gio González | 0.5000 |
0.2619
(160.2)
|
0.3235
(170.6)
|
| Alexi Ogando | 0.4194 |
0.1034
(182.5)
|
0.0702
(256.5)
|
| Aaron Harang | 0.5000 |
0.1935
(182.5)
|
0.3333
(134.9)
|
| Ian Kennedy | 0.6364 |
0.1750
(367.9)
|
0.3478
(278.6)
|
Individual Misses for Win Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Wilson | 0.1786 | 0.4706 | 219.0 |
| 2 | Daniel Hudson | 0.2258 | 0.4848 | 190.1 |
| 3 | Jered Weaver | 0.3000 | 0.5455 | 178.6 |
| 4 | Jeremy Hellickson | 0.1739 | 0.4483 | 171.6 |
| 5 | Zack Greinke | 0.2821 | 0.5714 | 169.3 |
| 6 | Dillon Gee | 0.1429 | 0.4333 | 167.9 |
| 7 | Justin Masterson | 0.1364 | 0.3529 | 148.9 |
| 8 | Jair Jurrjens | 0.2813 | 0.5652 | 145.1 |
| 9 | Yovani Gallardo | 0.3000 | 0.5152 | 140.6 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Vogelsong | 0.1000 | 0.4333 | 266.5 |
| 2 | Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.5294 | 0.3125 | 161.0 |
| 3 | Philip Humber | 0.1290 | 0.3214 | 144.3 |
| 4 | Brett Myers | 0.3793 | 0.2059 | 139.8 |
| 5 | Freddy Garcia | 0.2667 | 0.4615 | 135.1 |
| 6 | Phil Coke | 0.3667 | 0.0625 | 134.2 |
| 7 | Mat Latos | 0.4783 | 0.2903 | 133.4 |
| 8 | Mike Pelfrey | 0.3750 | 0.2059 | 127.4 |
| 9 | Aníbal Sánchez | 0.4231 | 0.2500 | 126.2 |
Loss Rate
Everybody Missed for Loss Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Félix Hernández | 0.4242 |
0.2250
(134.0)
|
0.2121
(199.0)
|
| Jhoulys Chacín | 0.4516 |
0.2368
(127.8)
|
0.2424
(168.3)
|
| Tim Lincecum | 0.4242 |
0.2105
(138.2)
|
0.1875
(208.0)
|
| Jeff Francis | 0.5161 |
0.2258
(184.8)
|
0.2632
(198.6)
|
| Justin Verlander | 0.1471 |
0.2308
(139.4)
|
0.2813
(135.5)
|
| Hiroki Kuroda | 0.5000 |
0.2703
(142.1)
|
0.2857
(174.8)
|
| J.A. Happ | 0.5357 |
0.1290
(241.8)
|
0.2414
(201.5)
|
| Brian Duensing | 0.4375 |
0.0930
(202.1)
|
0.1667
(188.5)
|
Individual Misses for Loss Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Cecil | 0.1795 | 0.5500 | 165.1 |
| 2 | Daniel Hudson | 0.1290 | 0.3636 | 160.6 |
| 3 | Guillermo Moscoso | 0.0769 | 0.4348 | 156.6 |
| 4 | Jeremy Hellickson | 0.0870 | 0.3448 | 153.0 |
| 5 | Ian Kennedy | 0.2250 | 0.1212 | 147.6 |
| 6 | Derek Lowe | 0.2632 | 0.5000 | 146.6 |
| 7 | David Price | 0.1707 | 0.3824 | 139.0 |
| 8 | R.A. Dickey | 0.1795 | 0.3939 | 135.1 |
| 9 | Brett Myers | 0.2051 | 0.4118 | 134.3 |
| 10 | Chris Capuano | 0.1379 | 0.3636 | 132.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Zimmermann | 0.1579 | 0.4231 | 171.8 |
| 2 | Alexi Ogando | 0.0175 | 0.2581 | 162.8 |
| 3 | Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.2059 | 0.4063 | 160.1 |
| 4 | Tim Stauffer | 0.1875 | 0.3871 | 150.7 |
| 5 | Mat Latos | 0.2609 | 0.4516 | 147.9 |
| 6 | Paul Maholm | 0.3226 | 0.5385 | 144.4 |
| 7 | Daniel McCutchen | 0.4242 | 0.0411 | 141.5 |
| 8 | Dillon Gee | 0.3913 | 0.2000 | 139.1 |
| 9 | Alfredo Simon | 0.1154 | 0.3913 | 134.9 |
| 10 | Vance Worley | 0.3448 | 0.1200 | 127.5 |
Save Rate
Everybody Missed for Save Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon League | 0.5692 |
0.0577
(133.0)
|
0.0000
(135.6)
|
| Ryan Madson | 0.5161 |
0.0889
(110.1)
|
0.0000
(120.3)
|
| Sergio Santos | 0.4762 |
0.0294
(121.5)
|
0.0000
(116.8)
|
| Juan Carlos Oviedo | 0.5294 |
0.2941
(68.5)
|
0.0000
(134.7)
|
| Heath Bell | 0.6719 |
0.4400
(64.6)
|
0.0000
(165.1)
|
| Craig Kimbrel | 0.5823 |
0.0500
(169.1)
|
0.0000
(169.9)
|
| Chris Perez | 0.5625 |
0.1875
(98.1)
|
0.0000
(132.8)
|
| Joel Hanrahan | 0.5714 |
0.0784
(140.7)
|
0.0000
(149.2)
|
| J.J. Putz | 0.7500 |
0.1000
(153.5)
|
0.0000
(165.6)
|
| Drew Storen | 0.5890 |
0.0857
(158.7)
|
0.0000
(170.3)
|
| John Axford | 0.6216 |
0.2941
(106.1)
|
0.0000
(181.4)
|
| Jordan Walden | 0.5161 |
0.0556
(121.7)
|
0.0000
(123.8)
|
| Jose Valverde | 0.6533 |
0.3778
(89.1)
|
0.0000
(188.5)
|
| Carlos Marmol | 0.4533 |
0.2632
(68.9)
|
0.0000
(139.4)
|
Individual Misses for Save Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Wilson | 0.1429 | 0.0000 | 112.1 |
| 2 | Alfredo Simon | 0.2258 | 0.0000 | 102.5 |
| 3 | Fernando Salas | 0.0455 | 0.3529 | 96.7 |
| 4 | Kyle Farnsworth | 0.0227 | 0.3968 | 91.1 |
| 5 | Javy Guerra | 0.0275 | 0.4468 | 85.7 |
| 6 | Mark Melancon | 0.0455 | 0.2817 | 79.3 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mariano Rivera | 0.0000 | 0.6875 | 153.9 |
| 2 | Brian Wilson | 0.0000 | 0.6316 | 146.9 |
| 3 | Francisco Cordero | 0.0000 | 0.5441 | 141.7 |
| 4 | Neftalí Feliz | 0.0000 | 0.5000 | 119.2 |
| 5 | Jonathan Papelbon | 0.0000 | 0.4921 | 118.6 |
| 6 | Joakim Soria | 0.0000 | 0.4667 | 112.6 |
Hold Rate
Everybody Missed for Hold Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Bard | 0.4857 |
0.3000
(63.5)
|
0.0000
(126.1)
|
| David Hernandez | 0.3108 |
0.0556
(84.4)
|
0.0000
(76.5)
|
| Tyler Clippard | 0.5278 |
0.2000
(119.3)
|
0.0000
(157.9)
|
| Jonny Venters | 0.4118 |
0.2391
(74.1)
|
0.0000
(129.9)
|
| Kerry Wood | 0.3818 |
0.1026
(70.4)
|
0.0000
(74.8)
|
| Sean Marshall | 0.4359 |
0.2000
(83.1)
|
0.0000
(119.1)
|
| Vinnie Pestano | 0.3433 |
0.0769
(75.3)
|
0.0000
(73.8)
|
| David Robertson | 0.4857 |
0.1556
(99.3)
|
0.0000
(119.1)
|
| Greg Holland | 0.3913 |
0.0588
(85.6)
|
0.0000
(80.0)
|
| Eric O'Flaherty | 0.4103 |
0.1522
(88.2)
|
0.0000
(109.1)
|
| Rafael Soriano | 0.5476 |
0.0625
(85.3)
|
0.0000
(82.0)
|
Individual Misses for Hold Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Wilson | 0.1250 | 0.0000 | 82.5 |
| 2 | Francisco Rodríguez | 0.0217 | 0.2329 | 75.5 |
| 3 | Brian Duensing | 0.1395 | 0.0000 | 74.4 |
| 4 | Kyle McClellan | 0.2500 | 0.0930 | 74.1 |
| 5 | Jeremy Hellickson | 0.1304 | 0.0000 | 74.0 |
| 6 | Alexi Ogando | 0.1379 | 0.0000 | 71.4 |
| 7 | Carlos Villanueva | 0.1795 | 0.0000 | 65.7 |
| 8 | Koji Uehara | 0.1034 | 0.3385 | 65.6 |
| 9 | Alfredo Aceves | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 63.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Adams | 0.0000 | 0.4267 | 104.9 |
| 2 | Joaquín Benoit | 0.0000 | 0.4394 | 94.4 |
| 3 | Grant Balfour | 0.0000 | 0.4194 | 89.9 |
| 4 | Jose Veras | 0.0000 | 0.3418 | 89.6 |
| 5 | Scott Downs | 0.0000 | 0.4333 | 84.0 |
| 6 | Jesse Crain | 0.0000 | 0.3582 | 83.2 |
| 7 | Jim Johnson | 0.0000 | 0.2609 | 78.0 |
| 8 | Tony Sipp | 0.0000 | 0.3478 | 75.3 |
| 9 | Chad Qualls | 0.0000 | 0.2857 | 72.8 |
ERA
Everybody Missed for ERA
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Harrison | 3.3932 |
4.8706
(1093.7)
|
4.9951
(1038.7)
|
| John Lackey | 6.4125 |
4.1334
(1738.5)
|
4.1379
(1880.5)
|
| Doug Fister | 2.8290 |
4.1230
(1079.2)
|
4.6362
(1356.9)
|
| Ryan Vogelsong | 2.7050 |
3.9993
(927.6)
|
6.1338
(2385.6)
|
| Bronson Arroyo | 5.0653 |
4.0428
(926.2)
|
4.2090
(951.5)
|
| Ubaldo Jiménez | 4.6832 |
3.4171
(1090.6)
|
3.0585
(1546.3)
|
| James Shields | 2.8155 |
4.4852
(1568.8)
|
4.3811
(1276.4)
|
| Brian Matusz | 10.6913 |
4.3021
(1580.2)
|
4.3775
(1609.7)
|
| Ryan Dempster | 4.8040 |
3.7480
(983.8)
|
3.7540
(1150.9)
|
Individual Misses for ERA
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Duensing | 3.3853 | 5.2330 | 1356.9 |
| 2 | J.A. Happ | 3.5200 | 5.3539 | 1322.5 |
| 3 | Charlie Morton | 5.4918 | 3.8272 | 1233.4 |
| 4 | Josh Beckett | 4.5562 | 2.8912 | 1230.5 |
| 5 | Justin Verlander | 3.6949 | 2.4024 | 1193.6 |
| 6 | Kyle Lohse | 4.8964 | 3.3929 | 1118.1 |
| 7 | Johnny Cueto | 4.0862 | 2.3077 | 1083.9 |
| 8 | Ian Kennedy | 4.1013 | 2.8784 | 1045.9 |
| 9 | Justin Masterson | 4.4164 | 3.2083 | 1041.8 |
| 10 | Jered Weaver | 3.5851 | 2.4059 | 1035.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Humber | 6.3984 | 3.7546 | 1613.9 |
| 2 | Edinson Volquez | 3.6565 | 5.7147 | 1131.9 |
| 3 | Esmil Rogers | 4.6901 | 7.0482 | 1056.3 |
| 4 | Max Scherzer | 3.4412 | 4.4308 | 1038.0 |
| 5 | Ricky Nolasco | 3.7759 | 4.6748 | 1029.4 |
| 6 | Aaron Crow | 6.7514 | 2.7581 | 994.0 |
| 7 | Chad Billingsley | 3.2996 | 4.2128 | 969.6 |
| 8 | Bartolo Colon | 5.6397 | 3.9980 | 961.4 |
| 9 | Jeff Karstens | 5.0625 | 3.3819 | 951.3 |
| 10 | Vance Worley | 4.9675 | 3.0076 | 942.0 |
WHIP
Everybody Missed for WHIP
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Lackey | 1.6187 |
1.3505
(208.2)
|
1.3246
(256.9)
|
| Clayton Kershaw | 0.9771 |
1.2534
(241.0)
|
1.2390
(191.8)
|
| Jake Westbrook | 1.5327 |
1.3405
(165.2)
|
1.3398
(197.8)
|
| Brian Matusz | 2.1141 |
1.3639
(186.7)
|
1.3781
(192.9)
|
| Justin Verlander | 0.9203 |
1.2316
(290.0)
|
1.1953
(216.5)
|
| Philip Humber | 1.1779 |
1.4322
(163.8)
|
1.7188
(330.7)
|
| Esmil Rogers | 1.8916 |
1.4870
(168.3)
|
1.4789
(187.6)
|
| Ricky Romero | 1.1378 |
1.3730
(204.7)
|
1.3963
(189.8)
|
| James Shields | 1.0428 |
1.3582
(295.8)
|
1.2981
(198.7)
|
| Doug Fister | 1.0632 |
1.3024
(198.8)
|
1.3844
(236.0)
|
Individual Misses for WHIP
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Beckett | 1.3384 | 1.0259 | 230.5 |
| 2 | Kyle Lohse | 1.4767 | 1.1681 | 229.8 |
| 3 | Tyler Chatwood | 1.3279 | 1.6690 | 223.5 |
| 4 | Cole Hamels | 1.2284 | 0.9861 | 195.7 |
| 5 | Mike Leake | 1.4462 | 1.1750 | 179.6 |
| 6 | Brian Duensing | 1.2844 | 1.5155 | 172.8 |
| 7 | Ian Kennedy | 1.2848 | 1.0856 | 168.5 |
| 8 | Kyle Drabek | 1.3598 | 1.8051 | 166.9 |
| 9 | Joel Pineiro | 1.2605 | 1.5103 | 165.2 |
| 10 | J.A. Happ | 1.3156 | 1.5352 | 161.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Vogelsong | 1.9455 | 1.2523 | 482.5 |
| 2 | Josh Collmenter | 1.5812 | 1.0691 | 286.0 |
| 3 | Ricky Nolasco | 1.1737 | 1.3981 | 245.9 |
| 4 | Guillermo Moscoso | 1.5993 | 1.0938 | 238.8 |
| 5 | Chad Billingsley | 1.2542 | 1.4521 | 206.8 |
| 6 | Josh Tomlin | 1.4363 | 1.0766 | 204.0 |
| 7 | Ubaldo Jiménez | 1.2324 | 1.4018 | 181.6 |
| 8 | Brad Penny | 1.4002 | 1.5633 | 172.4 |
| 9 | Cory Luebke | 1.4240 | 1.0668 | 169.6 |
| 10 | Ryan Dempster | 1.3102 | 1.4481 | 167.0 |