2011 Projection Evaluation

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Hosmer 1 563 562.0
2 Cesar Izturis 495 33 462.0
3 Jemile Weeks 1 437 436.0
4 Lastings Milledge 440 4 436.0
5 Trevor Crowe 462 32 430.0
6 Jacoby Ellsbury 313 732 419.0
7 Freddie Freeman 221 635 414.0
8 Danny Espinosa 264 658 394.0
9 Eric Thames 1 394 393.0
10 Adam LaRoche 565 177 388.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cedric Hunter 705 5 700.0
2 Eduardo Escobar 672 7 665.0
3 Osvaldo Martínez 662 23 639.0
4 Lars Anderson 644 5 639.0
5 Iván De Jesús Jr. 671 35 636.0
6 Alexi Amarista 692 56 636.0
7 Pete Kozma 651 22 629.0
8 Alex Liddi 666 44 622.0
9 Chris Carter 668 46 622.0
10 Brandon Laird 644 25 619.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Michael Morse 0.3927
0.3524
(29.8)
0.3452
(31.2)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.3971
0.3222
(63.2)
0.3224
(59.7)
Ryan Braun 0.4270
0.3804
(36.5)
0.3806
(33.5)
Matt Kemp 0.4229
0.3438
(62.4)
0.3416
(60.7)
Alex Gordon 0.3823
0.3232
(48.7)
0.3329
(38.7)
José Bautista 0.4519
0.3696
(61.4)
0.3808
(51.0)
Emilio Bonifácio 0.3296
0.2881
(34.0)
0.2870
(31.7)
Alex Avila 0.3865
0.3196
(43.2)
0.3071
(47.5)
Miguel Cabrera 0.4457
0.4045
(36.3)
0.4098
(29.3)
Mike Napoli 0.4464
0.3548
(44.6)
0.3674
(37.0)
Adam Dunn 0.2681
0.3842
(51.9)
0.3995
(61.9)
Melky Cabrera 0.3482
0.3101
(35.0)
0.3129
(29.7)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Curtis Granderson 0.3453 0.3908 39.4
2 David Ortiz 0.3646 0.4127 36.1
3 Jeff Francoeur 0.3078 0.3481 34.0
4 Casey Kotchman 0.3080 0.3566 33.8
5 Casey McGehee 0.3456 0.2778 33.8
6 José Reyes 0.3360 0.3800 32.5
7 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3436 0.2876 32.0
8 Hunter Pence 0.3448 0.3789 30.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jemile Weeks 0.2621 0.3318 33.4
2 Lance Berkman 0.3669 0.4160 32.8
3 Carl Crawford 0.3681 0.3009 32.5
4 Justin Morneau 0.3926 0.2765 31.5
5 Alex Rios 0.3323 0.2704 31.4
6 Jason Heyward 0.3875 0.3146 30.2
7 Carlos Beltrán 0.3520 0.3943 29.3
8 Aubrey Huff 0.3556 0.2994 28.6

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
David Ortiz 0.1372
0.2076
(45.2)
0.2136
(47.9)
Prince Fielder 0.1532
0.1918
(29.8)
0.1980
(32.8)
Curtis Granderson 0.2446
0.1970
(29.8)
0.2029
(26.9)
Michael Young 0.1132
0.1598
(35.1)
0.1530
(29.3)
Justin Upton 0.1869
0.2460
(42.8)
0.2385
(36.6)
Nick Markakis 0.1047
0.1463
(32.9)
0.1491
(33.6)
Jamey Carroll 0.1137
0.1667
(29.2)
0.1648
(27.4)
Kelly Johnson 0.2659
0.1947
(40.9)
0.1873
(46.6)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ben Revere 0.1794 0.0852 47.4
2 Adam Dunn 0.2667 0.3569 42.6
3 Josh Willingham 0.1953 0.2664 37.6
4 J.P. Arencibia 0.1964 0.2737 35.4
5 Aramis Ramirez 0.1598 0.1102 33.8
6 Darwin Barney 0.1700 0.1173 32.6
7 Trayvon Robinson 0.1814 0.3935 32.2
8 José Reyes 0.1190 0.0700 31.3
9 Brent Morel 0.1942 0.1284 31.2
10 Martín Prado 0.1347 0.0881 30.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Sean Rodríguez 0.2768 0.1995 34.8
2 Brandon Crawford 0.2780 0.1409 30.7
3 Mark Reynolds 0.3628 0.3161 30.6
4 Freddie Freeman 0.1730 0.2236 30.5
5 Evan Longoria 0.2121 0.1620 30.3
6 Robert Andino 0.2165 0.1624 29.0
7 Andrew McCutchen 0.1406 0.1858 28.9
8 Miguel Cabrera 0.1677 0.1294 28.2
9 Howie Kendrick 0.1549 0.2041 27.1
10 Carl Crawford 0.1408 0.1929 26.6

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Cody Ross 0.1063
0.0664
(20.9)
0.0576
(23.4)
Joey Votto 0.1530
0.1220
(26.3)
0.1293
(18.6)
Evan Longoria 0.1394
0.1020
(24.7)
0.1091
(18.6)
Alberto Callaspo 0.1082
0.0705
(23.2)
0.0628
(25.5)
Matt Kemp 0.1074
0.0773
(24.6)
0.0750
(23.8)
José Bautista 0.2015
0.1263
(52.9)
0.1407
(41.2)
Dustin Pedroia 0.1176
0.0911
(23.5)
0.0931
(19.6)
Ian Kinsler 0.1231
0.0972
(22.8)
0.1004
(18.0)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1570
0.1074
(37.9)
0.1193
(27.4)
Raul Ibanez 0.0574
0.0987
(20.6)
0.0995
(22.9)
Albert Pujols 0.0937
0.1477
(31.6)
0.1495
(34.9)
John Buck 0.1019
0.0642
(22.9)
0.0627
(21.9)
Chipper Jones 0.0996
0.1533
(24.7)
0.1544
(26.9)
Andrew McCutchen 0.1313
0.1034
(22.7)
0.1033
(20.4)
Jonny Gomes 0.1290
0.0759
(21.8)
0.0738
(21.3)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nick Swisher 0.1200 0.1496 22.3
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0867 0.1165 21.2
3 Chris Iannetta 0.1203 0.1643 21.1
4 Darwin Barney 0.0810 0.0385 21.1
5 Mike Napoli 0.0926 0.1343 20.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wilson Ramos 0.0293 0.0874 26.2
2 Kosuke Fukudome 0.1398 0.1012 22.0
3 Carlos Lee 0.0597 0.0904 21.4
4 Scott Sizemore 0.0800 0.1235 19.6
5 Melky Cabrera 0.0787 0.0496 19.0

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Casey Kotchman 0.0213
0.0105
(6.0)
0.0102
(6.3)
Curtis Granderson 0.0174
0.0038
(9.4)
0.0048
(8.8)
Gordon Beckham 0.0233
0.0119
(6.3)
0.0144
(5.0)
Juan Pierre 0.0098
0.0200
(7.3)
0.0213
(8.1)
Danny Espinosa 0.0289
0.0076
(14.0)
0.0135
(10.2)
Robinson Canó 0.0176
0.0081
(6.4)
0.0091
(5.9)
Justin Upton 0.0282
0.0071
(14.1)
0.0059
(15.1)
Alex Gonzalez 0.0017
0.0108
(5.5)
0.0117
(5.9)
Brendan Ryan 0.0202
0.0082
(5.9)
0.0088
(5.7)
Dustin Pedroia 0.0014
0.0089
(5.5)
0.0102
(6.3)
Nyjer Morgan 0.0326
0.0148
(7.6)
0.0168
(6.9)
Sean Rodríguez 0.0413
0.0150
(11.4)
0.0222
(8.4)
Brent Lillibridge 0.0324
0.0076
(5.3)
0.0093
(5.0)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Quentin 0.0318 0.0476 7.6
2 Michael Morse 0.0114 0.0226 6.4
3 Starlin Castro 0.0105 0.0028 5.6
4 David DeJesus 0.0110 0.0217 5.4
5 Justin Turner 0.0093 0.0205 5.4
6 Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.0084 0.0165 5.4
7 Reed Johnson 0.0219 0.0414 5.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Wallace 0.0274 0.0079 7.3
2 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.0294 0.0155 7.1
3 Darwin Barney 0.0034 0.0140 6.2
4 Chris Iannetta 0.0261 0.0117 6.1
5 Maicer Izturis 0.0058 0.0162 5.2
6 Mike Napoli 0.0191 0.0069 5.2
7 Prince Fielder 0.0218 0.0145 5.0

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Curtis Granderson 0.0965
0.0565
(29.4)
0.0651
(22.7)
Logan Morrison 0.0627
0.0244
(21.4)
0.0271
(19.4)
Mark Trumbo 0.0686
0.0333
(21.6)
0.0455
(14.1)
Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.0507
0.0167
(24.4)
0.0165
(23.8)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.0558
0.0202
(28.0)
0.0159
(30.3)
Matt Kemp 0.0867
0.0524
(25.4)
0.0517
(25.1)
J.J. Hardy 0.0679
0.0337
(20.8)
0.0373
(18.1)
Lance Berkman 0.0777
0.0547
(15.0)
0.0503
(16.9)
Josh Willingham 0.0838
0.0579
(16.0)
0.0556
(16.7)
Adam Dunn 0.0458
0.0947
(23.0)
0.1258
(39.0)
Brent Lillibridge 0.1000
0.0279
(16.1)
0.0248
(16.5)
Aaron Hill 0.0175
0.0526
(18.6)
0.0517
(18.7)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Bautista 0.0795 0.1059 19.0
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0672 0.0955 18.5
3 Adrian Beltré 0.0433 0.0724 16.6
4 B.J. Upton 0.0349 0.0569 15.7
5 J.P. Arencibia 0.0437 0.0735 15.7
6 Carlos Santana 0.0431 0.0634 15.0
7 Russell Martin 0.0243 0.0529 14.8
8 Mike Napoli 0.0745 0.1049 14.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Morse 0.0480 0.0775 17.8
2 Chris Heisey 0.0373 0.0874 15.9
3 Vladimir Guerrero 0.0526 0.0255 15.2
4 Hideki Matsui 0.0536 0.0270 14.7
5 Andrew McCutchen 0.0307 0.0507 14.5
6 Adrián González 0.0739 0.0523 14.4
7 Jason Giambi 0.0570 0.1494 14.3
8 Jack Cust 0.0749 0.0217 14.0

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Casey Kotchman 0.3349
0.2636
(43.2)
0.2760
(35.1)
Evan Longoria 0.2390
0.3189
(42.7)
0.3213
(45.2)
Michael Young 0.3666
0.3213
(34.9)
0.3126
(39.7)
Michael Bourn 0.3652
0.3250
(33.0)
0.3192
(35.8)
Matt Kemp 0.3796
0.3241
(42.0)
0.3199
(43.6)
Alex Gordon 0.3568
0.2851
(53.3)
0.2988
(42.5)
José Bautista 0.3085
0.2563
(37.8)
0.2508
(40.2)
Hunter Pence 0.3613
0.3028
(42.7)
0.3049
(40.1)
Alex Avila 0.3631
0.2846
(46.3)
0.2946
(39.7)
Ian Kinsler 0.2409
0.2917
(32.7)
0.2899
(32.8)
Alex Rios 0.2370
0.3007
(33.2)
0.2971
(32.3)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrián González 0.3028 0.3804 59.4
2 Peter Bourjos 0.2605 0.3316 42.3
3 Emilio Bonifácio 0.3074 0.3624 38.8
4 Freddie Freeman 0.2876 0.3390 36.1
5 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3488 0.2944 35.3
6 Melky Cabrera 0.2835 0.3280 35.2
7 Dan Uggla 0.3092 0.2530 34.1
8 Martín Prado 0.3266 0.2653 32.9
9 Vernon Wells 0.2812 0.2141 32.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jemile Weeks 0.2542 0.3477 42.4
2 Adam Dunn 0.3173 0.2402 36.5
3 Miguel Cabrera 0.3179 0.3646 34.6
4 Victor Martinez 0.2924 0.3430 32.2
5 Mark Teixeira 0.2885 0.2388 31.5
6 Logan Morrison 0.3279 0.2645 31.4
7 José Reyes 0.3016 0.3515 31.4
8 Chone Figgins 0.3117 0.2129 29.8
9 Wilson Betemit 0.3147 0.3907 28.6

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Adrián González 0.2822
0.2290
(40.0)
0.2465
(26.0)
Casey Kotchman 0.2740
0.1984
(44.1)
0.2031
(40.2)
Michael Young 0.2813
0.2449
(26.9)
0.2381
(30.2)
Matt Kemp 0.2895
0.2462
(31.7)
0.2393
(35.0)
Alex Gordon 0.2489
0.2085
(29.7)
0.2104
(27.0)
Freddie Freeman 0.2615
0.2157
(30.8)
0.2163
(29.1)
José Bautista 0.2369
0.1755
(42.0)
0.1693
(44.7)
Hunter Pence 0.2688
0.2300
(27.7)
0.2303
(26.1)
Dustin Pedroia 0.2491
0.2159
(26.2)
0.2120
(27.5)
Ian Kinsler 0.1683
0.2139
(31.0)
0.2150
(33.4)
Andre Ethier 0.2686
0.2188
(29.0)
0.2139
(30.4)
Omar Infante 0.2283
0.2717
(26.1)
0.2693
(25.9)
Chone Figgins 0.1647
0.2648
(30.5)
0.2601
(29.7)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jimmy Rollins 0.1836 0.2263 28.6
2 Rubén Tejada 0.1975 0.2702 28.3
3 Jhonny Peralta 0.2134 0.2584 27.5
4 Peter Bourjos 0.1860 0.2326 27.2
5 Emilio Bonifácio 0.2490 0.2886 27.1
6 Ichiro Suzuki 0.2923 0.2533 26.2
7 Chris Coghlan 0.2530 0.1651 25.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Evan Longoria 0.2150 0.1648 28.5
2 Colby Rasmus 0.2312 0.1792 27.1
3 Adam Dunn 0.2251 0.1703 26.9
4 Tyler Colvin 0.2120 0.0972 25.3
5 Matt Wieters 0.2512 0.2051 25.1
6 Michael Bourn 0.2469 0.2811 25.1
7 Jemile Weeks 0.1932 0.2500 25.1

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Edwin Encarnación 0.0923
0.0638
(16.3)
0.0625
(16.7)
Michael Morse 0.0976
0.0690
(17.8)
0.0714
(16.0)
Ben Zobrist 0.1029
0.0668
(25.9)
0.0657
(26.2)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.0850
0.0535
(24.8)
0.0539
(24.0)
Adam Lind 0.0428
0.0840
(21.1)
0.0835
(21.2)
Jeff Francoeur 0.1004
0.0617
(26.9)
0.0677
(22.6)
Nick Markakis 0.0557
0.0853
(19.6)
0.0847
(19.6)
Alex Avila 0.1015
0.0632
(22.4)
0.0698
(18.4)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1048
0.0848
(15.4)
0.0835
(15.8)
Kelly Shoppach 0.0222
0.0909
(16.8)
0.0970
(18.5)
Mark Teixeira 0.0580
0.0833
(15.7)
0.0841
(16.7)
John Buck 0.0444
0.0839
(19.7)
0.0823
(19.2)
Vernon Wells 0.0378
0.0748
(18.4)
0.0708
(16.6)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Gordon 0.0723 0.0991 20.1
2 Albert Pujols 0.0883 0.0591 17.5
3 Dexter Fowler 0.0702 0.0989 17.5
4 Carlos Quentin 0.0651 0.0975 16.8
5 Adrián González 0.0712 0.0920 16.5
6 Martín Prado 0.0833 0.0531 16.5
7 Ben Revere 0.0573 0.0218 15.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Maicer Izturis 0.0584 0.0914 17.1
2 Carlos Beltrán 0.0680 0.0942 16.6
3 Chris Getz 0.0573 0.0171 16.5
4 Ryan Theriot 0.0328 0.0637 15.8
5 Reed Johnson 0.0652 0.1209 15.2
6 Yadier Molina 0.0475 0.0751 15.2
7 Peter Bourjos 0.0439 0.0695 15.0

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Robinson Canó 0.0138
0.0063
(5.5)
0.0058
(6.3)
Andres Torres 0.0040
0.0248
(8.1)
0.0269
(8.6)
Dexter Fowler 0.0424
0.0292
(7.6)
0.0327
(6.2)
Carlos González 0.0084
0.0186
(5.3)
0.0203
(5.7)
José Reyes 0.0323
0.0220
(6.3)
0.0222
(6.7)
Seth Smith 0.0240
0.0133
(5.9)
0.0140
(6.1)
Wilson Betemit 0.0186
0.0043
(5.3)
0.0043
(5.6)
Austin Jackson 0.0264
0.0187
(5.4)
0.0174
(6.9)
Nick Hundley 0.0251
0.0078
(5.5)
0.0080
(5.7)
Jemile Weeks 0.0230
0.0071
(7.1)
0.0136
(4.7)
Dustin Ackley 0.0279
0.0071
(8.0)
0.0161
(4.9)
Shane Victorino 0.0360
0.0200
(9.6)
0.0196
(10.3)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0040 0.0155 7.2
2 Alex Presley 0.0067 0.0347 6.6
3 Peter Bourjos 0.0186 0.0294 6.2
4 Cliff Pennington 0.0161 0.0048 6.2
5 Ryan Howard 0.0120 0.0028 5.6
6 Kelly Johnson 0.0105 0.0192 5.6
7 Jason Bay 0.0144 0.0030 5.6
8 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.0000 0.0134 5.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Avila 0.0000 0.0123 7.5
2 Colby Rasmus 0.0056 0.0173 6.9
3 Jimmy Rollins 0.0155 0.0040 6.4
4 J.P. Arencibia 0.0027 0.0138 6.1
5 Tsuyoshi Nishioka 0.0249 0.0000 5.7
6 Ángel Pagán 0.0201 0.0096 4.9
7 Rafael Furcal 0.0143 0.0000 4.8
8 Fred Lewis 0.0234 0.0000 4.6

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Matt Wieters 0.1307
0.0898
(26.7)
0.1013
(20.1)
Curtis Granderson 0.1968
0.1426
(42.7)
0.1449
(40.8)
Brennan Boesch 0.1589
0.1034
(29.8)
0.0945
(33.8)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.1626
0.1374
(24.0)
0.1370
(24.0)
Ryan Braun 0.1733
0.1459
(22.0)
0.1431
(23.5)
Matt Kemp 0.1669
0.1332
(28.5)
0.1375
(25.2)
Adrian Beltré 0.1562
0.1226
(21.7)
0.1252
(20.0)
Ryan Roberts 0.1550
0.1152
(26.3)
0.1130
(27.3)
Aubrey Huff 0.0777
0.1304
(26.1)
0.1332
(28.0)
Howie Kendrick 0.1475
0.1189
(21.1)
0.1153
(23.0)
Bobby Abreu 0.0923
0.1365
(21.4)
0.1306
(18.2)
José Reyes 0.1724
0.1344
(26.7)
0.1418
(22.1)
Melky Cabrera 0.1445
0.1068
(32.0)
0.1002
(36.4)
Adam Dunn 0.0726
0.1248
(22.1)
0.1332
(26.5)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jayson Werth 0.1497 0.1063 23.2
2 Justin Upton 0.1301 0.1558 22.4
3 Mike Napoli 0.1268 0.1667 20.5
4 Casey McGehee 0.1167 0.0767 19.5
5 José Bautista 0.1384 0.1603 19.3
6 Adrián González 0.1317 0.1510 19.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Robinson Canó 0.1263 0.1527 22.9
2 Yadier Molina 0.0714 0.1062 21.7
3 Shane Victorino 0.1350 0.1621 20.1
4 Tsuyoshi Nishioka 0.1459 0.0583 19.3
5 Ben Zobrist 0.1259 0.1469 19.0
6 Andrew McCutchen 0.1621 0.1283 18.0

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Curtis Granderson 0.1722
0.1107
(46.7)
0.1208
(39.5)
Michael Morse 0.1652
0.1307
(23.3)
0.1114
(34.2)
Drew Stubbs 0.0646
0.1199
(33.5)
0.1043
(23.1)
Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.1379
0.1002
(29.2)
0.0926
(34.1)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.1434
0.0863
(46.3)
0.0835
(48.1)
Robinson Canó 0.1733
0.1333
(31.3)
0.1339
(30.7)
Matt Kemp 0.1829
0.1316
(39.5)
0.1375
(35.2)
Adrian Beltré 0.2000
0.1297
(40.1)
0.1389
(35.1)
Michael Young 0.1538
0.1186
(28.4)
0.1159
(30.1)
Alfonso Soriano 0.1732
0.1296
(25.2)
0.1332
(23.3)
Alex Avila 0.1488
0.1091
(25.2)
0.1022
(28.8)
Josh Willingham 0.1741
0.1210
(33.3)
0.1184
(34.6)
Adam Dunn 0.0847
0.1504
(29.6)
0.1612
(35.1)
Andrew McCutchen 0.1313
0.0983
(26.5)
0.1004
(24.8)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Logan Morrison 0.0847 0.1371 30.7
2 J.P. Arencibia 0.1116 0.1605 26.7
3 Mark Trumbo 0.1127 0.1518 25.9
4 Jayson Werth 0.1344 0.0894 25.3
5 Andres Torres 0.1149 0.0477 24.3
6 Russell Martin 0.0923 0.1366 23.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Melky Cabrera 0.0912 0.1232 26.7
2 Todd Helton 0.0928 0.1405 26.3
3 Alex Rios 0.1279 0.0772 25.6
4 Pedro Alvarez 0.1755 0.0725 25.5
5 Mike Moustakas 0.1520 0.0822 23.4
6 Victor Martinez 0.1399 0.1731 23.2

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.2053
0.2892
(64.6)
0.3280
(89.2)
Ryan Braun 0.1908
0.0897
(60.8)
0.1078
(52.7)
Juan Pierre 0.1317
0.2614
(95.3)
0.2761
(102.1)
Tony Campana 0.5714
0.0736
(76.5)
0.0736
(77.3)
Jeff Francoeur 0.1517
0.0417
(69.3)
0.0355
(76.8)
Coco Crisp 0.3451
0.2323
(63.2)
0.2500
(55.9)
Rajai Davis 0.5313
0.3158
(71.3)
0.3534
(60.4)
Erick Aybar 0.2128
0.1042
(63.1)
0.1232
(54.7)
Cameron Maybin 0.2837
0.0816
(112.3)
0.1119
(98.0)
Eduardo Núñez 0.2785
0.1186
(52.5)
0.1409
(46.8)
Jemile Weeks 0.1964
0.0736
(51.7)
0.0899
(46.9)
Aaron Hill 0.1591
0.0407
(65.1)
0.0320
(73.0)
Jason Bourgeois 0.4493
0.1765
(67.6)
0.2126
(59.8)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ben Revere 0.0536 0.2537 94.2
2 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.0736 0.3750 69.2
3 Alcides Escobar 0.0726 0.1926 69.2
4 Sam Fuld 0.0492 0.2469 66.9
5 Jordan Schafer 0.0526 0.2500 65.2
6 Chase d'Arnaud 0.0736 0.4286 52.9
7 Craig Gentry 0.0741 0.4000 49.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Young Jr. 0.0736 0.3803 70.4
2 Will Venable 0.1333 0.2680 55.7
3 Nyjer Morgan 0.2345 0.1102 53.0
4 Carl Crawford 0.2635 0.1667 51.7
5 Orlando Hudson 0.0483 0.1532 48.0
6 Grady Sizemore 0.1622 0.0000 47.6
7 Mike Aviles 0.0776 0.2295 47.2

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
David Ortiz 0.3086
0.2579
(35.1)
0.2600
(31.8)
Casey McGehee 0.2234
0.2827
(31.2)
0.2717
(26.5)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.3212
0.2792
(36.1)
0.2840
(30.1)
Michael Young 0.3376
0.2899
(37.9)
0.2850
(39.0)
Michael Bourn 0.2942
0.2652
(26.1)
0.2589
(28.4)
Matt Kemp 0.3239
0.2740
(39.3)
0.2710
(39.2)
Alex Gordon 0.3028
0.2437
(45.8)
0.2435
(43.7)
José Bautista 0.3021
0.2505
(38.6)
0.2489
(37.5)
Hunter Pence 0.3135
0.2755
(30.2)
0.2769
(27.1)
José Reyes 0.3371
0.2821
(36.4)
0.2843
(33.2)
Alex Avila 0.2953
0.2448
(31.8)
0.2388
(33.3)
Miguel Cabrera 0.3444
0.3098
(28.8)
0.3037
(30.8)
Mike Napoli 0.3198
0.2563
(30.6)
0.2541
(30.1)
Adam Dunn 0.1590
0.2571
(45.1)
0.2515
(43.9)
Melky Cabrera 0.3055
0.2613
(36.3)
0.2695
(28.3)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrián González 0.2830 0.3381 44.6
2 Casey Kotchman 0.2500 0.3060 35.6
3 Emilio Bonifácio 0.2547 0.2956 30.9
4 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3175 0.2718 27.8
5 Jhonny Peralta 0.2583 0.2990 27.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jemile Weeks 0.2176 0.3030 39.0
2 Kelly Johnson 0.2749 0.2220 29.9
3 Carl Crawford 0.3123 0.2549 28.7
4 Victor Martinez 0.2857 0.3296 28.5
5 Ryan Braun 0.2947 0.3321 26.1

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Casey Kotchman 0.3783
0.3143
(42.0)
0.3299
(30.2)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.3760
0.3355
(37.5)
0.3362
(33.0)
Ryan Braun 0.3975
0.3610
(29.6)
0.3547
(30.2)
Matt Kemp 0.3991
0.3311
(54.2)
0.3266
(53.6)
Michael Young 0.3803
0.3432
(32.8)
0.3338
(35.6)
José Bautista 0.4473
0.3519
(69.5)
0.3619
(59.4)
Emilio Bonifácio 0.3603
0.3107
(38.6)
0.3144
(32.8)
Hunter Pence 0.3698
0.3300
(33.7)
0.3257
(33.0)
José Reyes 0.3836
0.3359
(34.2)
0.3369
(30.4)
Alex Avila 0.3887
0.3264
(40.2)
0.3200
(40.8)
Miguel Cabrera 0.4477
0.3859
(49.8)
0.3882
(44.5)
Mike Napoli 0.4144
0.3360
(38.4)
0.3413
(33.8)
Adam Dunn 0.2923
0.3716
(34.0)
0.3832
(42.5)
Albert Pujols 0.3656
0.4211
(29.2)
0.4191
(31.4)
Vernon Wells 0.2476
0.3276
(36.7)
0.3127
(31.6)
Chone Figgins 0.2412
0.3602
(33.9)
0.3528
(33.3)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Gordon 0.3324 0.3765 37.7
2 David Ortiz 0.3526 0.3983 34.1
3 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3632 0.3097 30.9
4 Casey McGehee 0.3386 0.2800 28.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carl Crawford 0.3595 0.2892 35.1
2 Jason Heyward 0.3927 0.3194 31.0
3 Jemile Weeks 0.2775 0.3402 29.7
4 Alex Rios 0.3212 0.2649 29.0

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Curtis Granderson 0.5523
0.4597
(75.9)
0.4936
(48.0)
Michael Morse 0.5498
0.4700
(55.8)
0.4569
(59.7)
Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.4603
0.3906
(58.0)
0.3898
(54.2)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.5515
0.3993
(124.1)
0.3967
(121.2)
Matt Kemp 0.5864
0.4592
(99.6)
0.4580
(95.9)
Ryan Braun 0.5968
0.5189
(59.9)
0.5250
(52.0)
Alex Gordon 0.5025
0.3987
(83.5)
0.4073
(73.1)
José Bautista 0.6082
0.5051
(78.9)
0.5244
(61.9)
Jeff Francoeur 0.4759
0.3962
(63.6)
0.4109
(49.7)
Jayson Werth 0.3886
0.5000
(61.1)
0.4751
(49.1)
Alex Avila 0.5065
0.3953
(70.8)
0.3652
(83.8)
Melky Cabrera 0.4696
0.3801
(75.4)
0.3832
(68.6)
Adam Dunn 0.2771
0.5122
(108.0)
0.5392
(124.6)
Mike Napoli 0.6314
0.4783
(73.7)
0.5055
(59.1)
Yadier Molina 0.4653
0.3761
(55.2)
0.3656
(57.2)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mark Trumbo 0.3842 0.4768 63.0
2 Adrian Beltré 0.4662 0.5606 58.7
3 J.J. Hardy 0.4128 0.4915 54.4
4 Casey McGehee 0.4538 0.3462 54.2
5 Justin Upton 0.4675 0.5287 52.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance Berkman 0.4492 0.5471 63.9
2 Carlos Beltrán 0.4469 0.5250 53.2
3 Justin Morneau 0.5275 0.3333 52.8
4 Jemile Weeks 0.3113 0.4212 52.8
5 Aubrey Huff 0.4646 0.3704 48.3

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jon Garland 230
764
(534.0)
820
(590.0)
Dallas Braden 73
706
(633.0)
700
(627.0)
Scott Kazmir 14
668
(654.0)
686
(672.0)
Craig Stammen 38
538
(500.0)
645
(607.0)
Scott Feldman 129
629
(500.0)
723
(594.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 1 752 751.0
2 Michael Pineda 1 696 695.0
3 Zack Britton 1 666 665.0
4 Tyler Chatwood 1 633 632.0
5 Josh Collmenter 1 621 620.0
6 Joe Blanton 716 180 536.0
7 Barry Zito 758 225 533.0
8 Kevin Millwood 747 222 525.0
9 Jeremy Hellickson 250 774 524.0
10 Dave Bush 682 166 516.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Elih Villanueva 726 20 706.0
2 Eric Hacker 695 22 673.0
3 Corey Kluber 697 25 672.0
4 Alan Johnson 690 20 670.0
5 Brandon Dickson 690 34 656.0
6 Alex Torres 666 39 627.0
7 Aaron Thompson 663 41 622.0
8 Michael Crotta 678 56 622.0
9 Andy Oliver 668 49 619.0
10 Adam Wilk 673 57 616.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Matt Harrison 0.3009
0.3463
(32.3)
0.3489
(30.9)
John Lackey 0.3725
0.3253
(37.7)
0.3218
(43.6)
Brian Matusz 0.4750
0.3225
(38.2)
0.3252
(38.6)
Bronson Arroyo 0.3657
0.3150
(46.4)
0.3191
(46.6)
Justin Verlander 0.2469
0.2973
(45.3)
0.2863
(30.4)
Josh Beckett 0.2692
0.3298
(43.8)
0.3182
(31.5)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.3313
0.2922
(35.0)
0.2846
(44.9)
James Shields 0.2758
0.3376
(56.8)
0.3288
(43.9)
Doug Fister 0.2722
0.3155
(34.8)
0.3358
(48.7)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.3061 0.3583 39.7
2 Cole Hamels 0.3108 0.2615 38.9
3 Johnny Cueto 0.3289 0.2658 37.6
4 Clayton Kershaw 0.2895 0.2463 36.2
5 Kyle Lohse 0.3456 0.2955 36.1
6 Tyler Chatwood 0.3156 0.3649 33.5
7 Roy Halladay 0.2903 0.2545 30.1
8 Danny Duffy 0.3156 0.3751 29.9
9 Jered Weaver 0.2988 0.2638 29.1
10 Dan Haren 0.3058 0.2726 28.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 0.3985 0.2884 69.1
2 Ryan Vogelsong 0.3830 0.2961 59.4
3 Guillermo Moscoso 0.3595 0.2739 40.9
4 Max Scherzer 0.2997 0.3390 39.4
5 Josh Collmenter 0.3508 0.2833 37.0
6 Ricky Nolasco 0.3004 0.3327 35.8
7 Ryan Dempster 0.3105 0.3417 34.5
8 Cory Luebke 0.3385 0.2703 33.4
9 Chad Billingsley 0.2909 0.3206 31.2
10 Brad Penny 0.3350 0.3657 31.1

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Matt Garza 0.2348
0.1876
(39.2)
0.1868
(38.8)
Carl Pavano 0.1068
0.1514
(43.1)
0.1469
(40.1)
Cory Luebke 0.2775
0.1901
(48.2)
0.1507
(69.3)
Jason Hammel 0.1272
0.1768
(37.0)
0.1782
(39.0)
Cliff Lee 0.2587
0.1984
(55.0)
0.2112
(42.1)
Michael Pineda 0.2486
0.1862
(43.1)
0.1800
(46.4)
Brandon Beachy 0.2860
0.1873
(58.0)
0.2024
(48.3)
Ricky Nolasco 0.1661
0.2187
(47.3)
0.2315
(59.9)
Aníbal Sánchez 0.2434
0.1860
(47.2)
0.1879
(44.5)
Brad Penny 0.0922
0.1551
(50.9)
0.1380
(38.3)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Craig Kimbrel 0.2293 0.4150 56.7
2 Zack Greinke 0.2149 0.2811 47.0
3 Kenley Jansen 0.2262 0.4404 46.6
4 Tyler Chatwood 0.1862 0.1169 44.2
5 Sergio Santos 0.2000 0.3538 39.9
6 Jeff Francis 0.1621 0.1133 39.6
7 Kevin Correia 0.1731 0.1167 37.6
8 James Shields 0.1924 0.2308 37.0
9 Kyle McClellan 0.1852 0.1252 36.7
10 David Robertson 0.2322 0.3676 36.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Madison Bumgarner 0.1516 0.2263 61.5
2 Bartolo Colon 0.1170 0.1945 52.6
3 Alexi Ogando 0.2454 0.1818 45.3
4 Jeremy Hellickson 0.2070 0.1512 44.6
5 Vance Worley 0.1348 0.2152 43.5
6 Carlos Villanueva 0.2382 0.1498 41.0
7 Max Scherzer 0.2552 0.2089 40.1
8 Koji Uehara 0.1862 0.3498 39.3
9 Vinnie Pestano 0.1818 0.3360 38.1
10 Glen Perkins 0.1163 0.2569 35.1

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jaime García 0.0605
0.0909
(22.9)
0.0946
(22.8)
Yovani Gallardo 0.0682
0.0995
(24.8)
0.0999
(21.8)
Josh Collmenter 0.0451
0.0811
(20.7)
0.1113
(37.1)
Jason Hammel 0.0920
0.0681
(19.6)
0.0590
(29.2)
Brandon McCarthy 0.0362
0.0861
(32.6)
0.0791
(25.1)
Clayton Kershaw 0.0592
0.1032
(37.8)
0.1058
(36.6)
Jordan Zimmermann 0.0468
0.0804
(20.5)
0.0871
(22.4)
Josh Tomlin 0.0317
0.0775
(28.6)
0.0782
(26.5)
Francisco Liriano 0.1269
0.0858
(25.9)
0.0824
(30.1)
Ian Kennedy 0.0611
0.0893
(23.0)
0.0903
(20.4)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kyle Drabek 0.0831 0.1507 25.6
2 Tim Collins 0.0811 0.1627 24.9
3 Aroldis Chapman 0.0863 0.1981 23.7
4 Daniel Hudson 0.0813 0.0543 22.4
5 Tyler Chatwood 0.0811 0.1122 21.3
6 Henry Alberto Rodriguez 0.0914 0.1525 18.8
7 David Price 0.0916 0.0686 18.7
8 Kevin Correia 0.0896 0.0591 18.4
9 Mike Leake 0.0832 0.0548 17.8
10 Justin Masterson 0.0938 0.0716 17.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 0.1591 0.0811 53.8
2 Alexi Ogando 0.1136 0.0620 31.2
3 Dillon Gee 0.0703 0.1006 25.9
4 Craig Kimbrel 0.1888 0.1046 23.8
5 Kevin Gregg 0.0672 0.1455 23.3
6 Nick Blackburn 0.0542 0.0806 22.0
7 Dontrelle Willis 0.1807 0.1108 21.2
8 James Shields 0.0524 0.0667 20.2
9 J.A. Happ 0.0967 0.1189 20.0
10 Tim Lincecum 0.0811 0.0956 18.9

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Shaun Marcum 0.0000
0.0092
(7.6)
0.0087
(6.1)
Randy Wolf 0.0144
0.0089
(4.9)
0.0094
(5.6)
John Lackey 0.0256
0.0102
(11.3)
0.0115
(11.3)
Brandon Morrow 0.0154
0.0091
(4.9)
0.0092
(5.8)
Erik Bedard 0.0018
0.0104
(4.7)
0.0127
(5.2)
Jhoulys Chacín 0.0048
0.0116
(5.7)
0.0141
(6.7)
Dillon Gee 0.0198
0.0060
(9.7)
0.0108
(7.2)
Gavin Floyd 0.0138
0.0068
(5.5)
0.0063
(7.0)
Alfredo Aceves 0.0316
0.0116
(9.5)
0.0122
(9.8)
Tim Hudson 0.0170
0.0084
(7.5)
0.0080
(9.0)
Ernesto Frieri 0.0326
0.0056
(7.4)
0.0104
(6.5)
Alex Burnett 0.0356
0.0091
(5.9)
0.0131
(5.3)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Carpenter 0.0114 0.0060 5.5
2 Justin Verlander 0.0085 0.0031 5.3
3 Jake Westbrook 0.0089 0.0025 5.3
4 Matt Harrison 0.0080 0.0013 5.2
5 Doug Fister 0.0077 0.0137 5.2
6 Chris Volstad 0.0083 0.0014 5.0
7 Juan Abreu 0.0084 0.1471 4.7
8 Matt Garza 0.0091 0.0036 4.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zack Britton 0.0142 0.0015 7.6
2 Matt Cain 0.0044 0.0099 6.1
3 Ricky Romero 0.0098 0.0153 6.1
4 Brandon McCarthy 0.0095 0.0000 5.7
5 Ted Lilly 0.0053 0.0112 5.7
6 Cory Luebke 0.0147 0.0036 5.5
7 R.A. Dickey 0.0056 0.0103 5.2
8 Roberto Hernandez 0.0122 0.0168 4.8

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Matt Garza 0.0243
0.0412
(13.6)
0.0423
(13.9)
Yovani Gallardo 0.0452
0.0322
(11.9)
0.0323
(12.3)
Johnny Cueto 0.0170
0.0389
(13.3)
0.0392
(13.2)
Matt Cain 0.0137
0.0344
(18.0)
0.0308
(14.3)
Jake Arrieta 0.0572
0.0296
(14.8)
0.0364
(11.6)
Edinson Volquez 0.0601
0.0326
(13.8)
0.0377
(11.6)
Charlie Morton 0.0105
0.0384
(20.8)
0.0328
(16.1)
Randy Wells 0.0509
0.0306
(12.2)
0.0316
(12.1)
Bronson Arroyo 0.0661
0.0416
(21.6)
0.0413
(22.3)
A.J. Burnett 0.0542
0.0387
(13.6)
0.0396
(13.3)
Brian Matusz 0.0984
0.0367
(15.3)
0.0369
(15.4)
Roy Halladay 0.0148
0.0309
(14.3)
0.0316
(14.4)
Colby Lewis 0.0576
0.0362
(18.5)
0.0419
(14.3)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jordan Zimmermann 0.0455 0.0240 13.7
2 Ricky Nolasco 0.0441 0.0287 13.0
3 Alex White 0.0339 0.0877 12.9
4 James McDonald 0.0293 0.0455 12.8
5 Matt Harrison 0.0389 0.0221 12.4
6 Madison Bumgarner 0.0350 0.0199 12.1
7 Justin Masterson 0.0299 0.0163 11.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 0.0621 0.0273 22.6
2 Edwin Jackson 0.0435 0.0247 15.1
3 Brandon McCarthy 0.0422 0.0203 14.2
4 Max Scherzer 0.0346 0.0487 12.9
5 Tommy Hanson 0.0277 0.0487 12.1
6 Doug Fister 0.0314 0.0162 12.1
7 Anthony Vasquez 0.0300 0.1083 11.6

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Matt Garza 0.3060
0.2748
(28.1)
0.2761
(28.8)
Félix Hernández 0.3066
0.2793
(28.5)
0.2823
(27.7)
Jered Weaver 0.2496
0.2831
(29.0)
0.2847
(28.4)
Guillermo Moscoso 0.2211
0.2963
(38.4)
0.3174
(48.3)
Chris Carpenter 0.3118
0.2792
(34.7)
0.2822
(33.9)
Edwin Jackson 0.3302
0.2980
(29.6)
0.2943
(34.7)
Justin Verlander 0.2362
0.2980
(57.7)
0.2949
(52.6)
Josh Beckett 0.2451
0.3112
(49.0)
0.3106
(46.8)
Jeremy Hellickson 0.2232
0.2874
(47.9)
0.2941
(51.4)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.3141
0.2822
(28.0)
0.2790
(32.5)
Ricky Romero 0.2423
0.3031
(53.8)
0.3065
(54.7)
James Shields 0.2584
0.3160
(54.0)
0.3127
(48.6)
Trevor Cahill 0.3023
0.2608
(39.4)
0.2718
(31.5)
Ryan Dempster 0.3241
0.2950
(27.6)
0.2919
(32.3)
CC Sabathia 0.3179
0.2847
(34.9)
0.2888
(33.0)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.2819 0.3295 35.4
2 Kyle Lohse 0.3140 0.2687 33.4
3 Cole Hamels 0.2942 0.2551 31.4
4 Daniel Hudson 0.2673 0.2954 27.9
5 Antonio Bastardo 0.3033 0.1789 27.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ricky Nolasco 0.2940 0.3314 37.2
2 Ryan Vogelsong 0.3333 0.2801 36.7
3 Madison Bumgarner 0.2882 0.3220 32.3
4 John Lackey 0.3025 0.3389 30.3
5 Doug Fister 0.3086 0.2720 28.1

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Matt Garza 0.2438
0.2056
(32.8)
0.2059
(34.4)
Félix Hernández 0.2558
0.2191
(36.3)
0.2145
(42.8)
Jhoulys Chacín 0.1767
0.2232
(37.7)
0.2173
(31.0)
Luke Hochevar 0.1854
0.2234
(31.0)
0.2304
(35.0)
Kyle Lohse 0.1841
0.2243
(30.4)
0.2272
(31.0)
Chris Carpenter 0.2610
0.2102
(51.4)
0.2147
(49.2)
Ricky Nolasco 0.2500
0.2198
(27.7)
0.2191
(30.3)
Justin Verlander 0.1827
0.2230
(38.2)
0.2237
(36.8)
Jeremy Hellickson 0.1446
0.2184
(56.4)
0.2225
(57.9)
Ricky Romero 0.1761
0.2311
(49.6)
0.2323
(48.7)
James Shields 0.2003
0.2298
(27.9)
0.2337
(29.6)
Trevor Cahill 0.2357
0.1996
(33.3)
0.2026
(32.6)
CC Sabathia 0.2552
0.2179
(37.6)
0.2189
(38.8)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tim Lincecum 0.2312 0.1937 32.9
2 A.J. Burnett 0.2294 0.1978 25.7
3 Alfredo Aceves 0.2114 0.1581 24.8
4 John Lackey 0.2232 0.2556 24.7
5 Tyler Chatwood 0.2190 0.2564 24.3
6 Antonio Bastardo 0.2295 0.1220 24.0
7 Mike Leake 0.2389 0.2036 23.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Guillermo Moscoso 0.2360 0.1658 35.2
2 Roy Halladay 0.2193 0.2515 33.0
3 Felipe Paulino 0.2293 0.2769 30.4
4 Madison Bumgarner 0.2195 0.2492 27.7
5 Derek Holland 0.2147 0.2423 25.9
6 Edwin Jackson 0.2195 0.2464 25.9
7 Jaime García 0.2206 0.2488 25.8

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Yovani Gallardo 0.0473
0.0832
(30.0)
0.0667
(15.3)
Tim Lincecum 0.0838
0.0573
(24.9)
0.0630
(20.2)
Zack Greinke 0.0919
0.0662
(19.3)
0.0663
(19.5)
Roberto Hernandez 0.0828
0.0608
(19.3)
0.0651
(16.1)
Josh Beckett 0.0451
0.0784
(24.6)
0.0705
(18.2)
J.A. Happ 0.0873
0.0638
(17.2)
0.0659
(16.2)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0836
0.0636
(17.5)
0.0605
(20.4)
James Shields 0.0535
0.0772
(21.9)
0.0712
(15.6)
John Axford 0.0158
0.0738
(17.3)
0.0678
(15.4)
Chris Capuano 0.0929
0.0721
(17.6)
0.0663
(22.7)
Roy Halladay 0.0407
0.0605
(17.4)
0.0653
(21.5)
Ryan Dempster 0.0879
0.0632
(22.8)
0.0659
(20.9)
Alfredo Simon 0.1092
0.0577
(26.3)
0.0684
(21.2)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Daniel Hudson 0.0528 0.0783 24.6
2 Brian Duensing 0.0534 0.0843 22.8
3 Cole Hamels 0.0731 0.0476 20.6
4 Francisco Liriano 0.0748 0.0418 18.8
5 Justin Verlander 0.0676 0.0488 17.1
6 Derek Holland 0.0824 0.0614 16.7
7 Chris Carpenter 0.0618 0.0453 15.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 0.0754 0.0451 21.5
2 Gio González 0.0677 0.0417 21.0
3 Jeremy Guthrie 0.0639 0.0836 19.0
4 Tim Wakefield 0.0645 0.0893 17.9
5 A.J. Burnett 0.0694 0.0887 17.5
6 Brad Bergesen 0.0669 0.1032 17.1
7 Félix Hernández 0.0615 0.0431 16.1

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Johnny Cueto 0.0000
0.0077
(4.8)
0.0071
(4.7)
Mat Latos 0.0168
0.0044
(10.0)
0.0059
(8.4)
Danny Duffy 0.0253
0.0069
(8.8)
0.0080
(8.1)
Jhoulys Chacín 0.0159
0.0060
(8.3)
0.0074
(6.7)
Jeff Karstens 0.0000
0.0107
(7.1)
0.0070
(4.9)
Kerry Wood 0.0294
0.0069
(5.1)
0.0077
(4.8)
Cory Gearrin 0.0652
0.0069
(5.0)
0.0054
(5.1)
Jeff Niemann 0.0147
0.0061
(5.0)
0.0059
(4.9)
Josh Beckett 0.0000
0.0071
(5.4)
0.0066
(5.3)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0223
0.0075
(12.3)
0.0067
(12.5)
Aaron Cook 0.0175
0.0065
(4.9)
0.0058
(5.0)
Ryan Dempster 0.0138
0.0057
(7.2)
0.0056
(6.9)
Livan Hernandez 0.0137
0.0067
(5.3)
0.0063
(5.3)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tim Lincecum 0.0099 0.0035 5.7
2 Chad Billingsley 0.0099 0.0035 5.2
3 Guillermo Moscoso 0.0123 0.0025 5.1
4 Joel Pineiro 0.0119 0.0039 5.0
5 Bartolo Colon 0.0050 0.0121 5.0
6 Jason Marquis 0.0085 0.0000 4.9
7 Rick Porcello 0.0056 0.0115 4.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Luke Hochevar 0.0065 0.0179 9.2
2 Derek Holland 0.0082 0.0017 5.7
3 Vinnie Pestano 0.0067 0.0299 5.7
4 Jake Westbrook 0.0062 0.0130 5.3
5 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0067 0.0130 4.9
6 Zack Greinke 0.0066 0.0135 4.6
7 Roberto Hernandez 0.0067 0.0016 4.5

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jered Weaver 0.0702
0.1024
(28.0)
0.1017
(25.4)
John Lackey 0.1602
0.1175
(33.1)
0.1151
(36.5)
Brian Matusz 0.2449
0.1163
(32.0)
0.1195
(31.7)
Ryan Vogelsong 0.0824
0.1123
(21.0)
0.1490
(47.0)
Tim Wakefield 0.1625
0.1297
(23.5)
0.1296
(25.0)
J.A. Happ 0.1476
0.0987
(35.4)
0.1183
(23.2)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1350
0.0961
(33.6)
0.0865
(43.2)
James Shields 0.0851
0.1274
(39.3)
0.1223
(32.3)
Doug Fister 0.0869
0.1175
(25.1)
0.1276
(32.1)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.0961 0.1435 35.1
2 Charlie Morton 0.1504 0.1066 32.2
3 Josh Beckett 0.1258 0.0847 30.0
4 Justin Verlander 0.1068 0.0753 28.6
5 Ian Kennedy 0.1146 0.0811 28.4
6 Bronson Arroyo 0.1137 0.1392 23.5
7 Eric O'Flaherty 0.1096 0.0299 23.4
8 Kyle Lohse 0.1353 0.1032 23.4
9 Justin Masterson 0.1256 0.0980 23.3
10 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1120 0.0827 21.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 0.1611 0.1050 35.2
2 Félix Hernández 0.0801 0.1027 25.6
3 Edinson Volquez 0.1002 0.1472 25.0
4 Chad Billingsley 0.0925 0.1182 24.7
5 Roberto Hernandez 0.1248 0.1501 24.4
6 Ricky Nolasco 0.1087 0.1313 23.7
7 Vance Worley 0.1319 0.0850 23.7
8 Aaron Crow 0.1660 0.0752 23.1
9 Max Scherzer 0.0976 0.1212 23.0
10 Ryan Dempster 0.1041 0.1260 22.8

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Johnny Cueto 0.0634
0.1060
(25.5)
0.1042
(22.1)
John Lackey 0.1534
0.1073
(36.0)
0.1074
(38.4)
Matt Harrison 0.0907
0.1223
(22.7)
0.1242
(21.4)
Doug Fister 0.0777
0.1082
(24.7)
0.1187
(30.8)
Ryan Vogelsong 0.0718
0.1029
(21.7)
0.1389
(46.1)
Bronson Arroyo 0.1310
0.1073
(22.2)
0.1110
(22.0)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1192
0.0911
(25.0)
0.0811
(36.1)
James Shields 0.0800
0.1159
(32.8)
0.1146
(28.2)
Brian Matusz 0.2408
0.1105
(32.5)
0.1116
(33.1)
Ryan Dempster 0.1226
0.0982
(23.5)
0.0979
(26.8)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.0895 0.1322 32.0
2 J.A. Happ 0.0924 0.1332 30.1
3 Charlie Morton 0.1362 0.0949 30.0
4 Josh Beckett 0.1177 0.0808 26.5
5 Justin Verlander 0.0983 0.0691 26.0
6 Jered Weaver 0.0961 0.0680 23.9
7 Ian Kennedy 0.1071 0.0789 23.4
8 Kyle Lohse 0.1235 0.0916 23.0
9 Justin Masterson 0.1120 0.0848 22.6
10 Eric O'Flaherty 0.0965 0.0266 20.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 0.1512 0.1006 30.3
2 Edinson Volquez 0.0938 0.1411 25.9
3 Max Scherzer 0.0907 0.1152 25.3
4 Félix Hernández 0.0749 0.0934 23.3
5 Ricky Nolasco 0.1010 0.1201 22.1
6 Jeff Karstens 0.1297 0.0913 21.8
7 Carlos Zambrano 0.0945 0.1230 21.7
8 Vance Worley 0.1232 0.0796 21.0
9 Aaron Crow 0.1555 0.0714 20.8
10 Chad Billingsley 0.0868 0.1062 20.8

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Derek Holland 0.5000
0.1724
(231.8)
0.3704
(127.0)
Matt Harrison 0.4516
0.1563
(187.4)
0.1724
(231.8)
Clayton Kershaw 0.6364
0.2381
(315.2)
0.4242
(212.6)
Kyle Lohse 0.4667
0.2000
(165.9)
0.3182
(131.4)
Justin Verlander 0.7059
0.3590
(285.2)
0.5625
(159.3)
Iván Nova 0.5714
0.1111
(287.0)
0.2500
(241.1)
Bruce Chen 0.4800
0.2105
(141.8)
0.2400
(170.7)
Gio González 0.5000
0.2619
(160.2)
0.3235
(170.6)
Alexi Ogando 0.4194
0.1034
(182.5)
0.0702
(256.5)
Aaron Harang 0.5000
0.1935
(182.5)
0.3333
(134.9)
Ian Kennedy 0.6364
0.1750
(367.9)
0.3478
(278.6)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.1786 0.4706 219.0
2 Daniel Hudson 0.2258 0.4848 190.1
3 Jered Weaver 0.3000 0.5455 178.6
4 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1739 0.4483 171.6
5 Zack Greinke 0.2821 0.5714 169.3
6 Dillon Gee 0.1429 0.4333 167.9
7 Justin Masterson 0.1364 0.3529 148.9
8 Jair Jurrjens 0.2813 0.5652 145.1
9 Yovani Gallardo 0.3000 0.5152 140.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 0.1000 0.4333 266.5
2 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.5294 0.3125 161.0
3 Philip Humber 0.1290 0.3214 144.3
4 Brett Myers 0.3793 0.2059 139.8
5 Freddy Garcia 0.2667 0.4615 135.1
6 Phil Coke 0.3667 0.0625 134.2
7 Mat Latos 0.4783 0.2903 133.4
8 Mike Pelfrey 0.3750 0.2059 127.4
9 Aníbal Sánchez 0.4231 0.2500 126.2

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Félix Hernández 0.4242
0.2250
(134.0)
0.2121
(199.0)
Jhoulys Chacín 0.4516
0.2368
(127.8)
0.2424
(168.3)
Tim Lincecum 0.4242
0.2105
(138.2)
0.1875
(208.0)
Jeff Francis 0.5161
0.2258
(184.8)
0.2632
(198.6)
Justin Verlander 0.1471
0.2308
(139.4)
0.2813
(135.5)
Hiroki Kuroda 0.5000
0.2703
(142.1)
0.2857
(174.8)
J.A. Happ 0.5357
0.1290
(241.8)
0.2414
(201.5)
Brian Duensing 0.4375
0.0930
(202.1)
0.1667
(188.5)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Cecil 0.1795 0.5500 165.1
2 Daniel Hudson 0.1290 0.3636 160.6
3 Guillermo Moscoso 0.0769 0.4348 156.6
4 Jeremy Hellickson 0.0870 0.3448 153.0
5 Ian Kennedy 0.2250 0.1212 147.6
6 Derek Lowe 0.2632 0.5000 146.6
7 David Price 0.1707 0.3824 139.0
8 R.A. Dickey 0.1795 0.3939 135.1
9 Brett Myers 0.2051 0.4118 134.3
10 Chris Capuano 0.1379 0.3636 132.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jordan Zimmermann 0.1579 0.4231 171.8
2 Alexi Ogando 0.0175 0.2581 162.8
3 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2059 0.4063 160.1
4 Tim Stauffer 0.1875 0.3871 150.7
5 Mat Latos 0.2609 0.4516 147.9
6 Paul Maholm 0.3226 0.5385 144.4
7 Daniel McCutchen 0.4242 0.0411 141.5
8 Dillon Gee 0.3913 0.2000 139.1
9 Alfredo Simon 0.1154 0.3913 134.9
10 Vance Worley 0.3448 0.1200 127.5

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Brandon League 0.5692
0.0577
(133.0)
0.0000
(135.6)
Ryan Madson 0.5161
0.0889
(110.1)
0.0000
(120.3)
Sergio Santos 0.4762
0.0294
(121.5)
0.0000
(116.8)
Juan Carlos Oviedo 0.5294
0.2941
(68.5)
0.0000
(134.7)
Heath Bell 0.6719
0.4400
(64.6)
0.0000
(165.1)
Craig Kimbrel 0.5823
0.0500
(169.1)
0.0000
(169.9)
Chris Perez 0.5625
0.1875
(98.1)
0.0000
(132.8)
Joel Hanrahan 0.5714
0.0784
(140.7)
0.0000
(149.2)
J.J. Putz 0.7500
0.1000
(153.5)
0.0000
(165.6)
Drew Storen 0.5890
0.0857
(158.7)
0.0000
(170.3)
John Axford 0.6216
0.2941
(106.1)
0.0000
(181.4)
Jordan Walden 0.5161
0.0556
(121.7)
0.0000
(123.8)
Jose Valverde 0.6533
0.3778
(89.1)
0.0000
(188.5)
Carlos Marmol 0.4533
0.2632
(68.9)
0.0000
(139.4)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.1429 0.0000 112.1
2 Alfredo Simon 0.2258 0.0000 102.5
3 Fernando Salas 0.0455 0.3529 96.7
4 Kyle Farnsworth 0.0227 0.3968 91.1
5 Javy Guerra 0.0275 0.4468 85.7
6 Mark Melancon 0.0455 0.2817 79.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.6875 153.9
2 Brian Wilson 0.0000 0.6316 146.9
3 Francisco Cordero 0.0000 0.5441 141.7
4 Neftalí Feliz 0.0000 0.5000 119.2
5 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.4921 118.6
6 Joakim Soria 0.0000 0.4667 112.6

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Daniel Bard 0.4857
0.3000
(63.5)
0.0000
(126.1)
David Hernandez 0.3108
0.0556
(84.4)
0.0000
(76.5)
Tyler Clippard 0.5278
0.2000
(119.3)
0.0000
(157.9)
Jonny Venters 0.4118
0.2391
(74.1)
0.0000
(129.9)
Kerry Wood 0.3818
0.1026
(70.4)
0.0000
(74.8)
Sean Marshall 0.4359
0.2000
(83.1)
0.0000
(119.1)
Vinnie Pestano 0.3433
0.0769
(75.3)
0.0000
(73.8)
David Robertson 0.4857
0.1556
(99.3)
0.0000
(119.1)
Greg Holland 0.3913
0.0588
(85.6)
0.0000
(80.0)
Eric O'Flaherty 0.4103
0.1522
(88.2)
0.0000
(109.1)
Rafael Soriano 0.5476
0.0625
(85.3)
0.0000
(82.0)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.1250 0.0000 82.5
2 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0217 0.2329 75.5
3 Brian Duensing 0.1395 0.0000 74.4
4 Kyle McClellan 0.2500 0.0930 74.1
5 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1304 0.0000 74.0
6 Alexi Ogando 0.1379 0.0000 71.4
7 Carlos Villanueva 0.1795 0.0000 65.7
8 Koji Uehara 0.1034 0.3385 65.6
9 Alfredo Aceves 0.1000 0.2000 63.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Adams 0.0000 0.4267 104.9
2 Joaquín Benoit 0.0000 0.4394 94.4
3 Grant Balfour 0.0000 0.4194 89.9
4 Jose Veras 0.0000 0.3418 89.6
5 Scott Downs 0.0000 0.4333 84.0
6 Jesse Crain 0.0000 0.3582 83.2
7 Jim Johnson 0.0000 0.2609 78.0
8 Tony Sipp 0.0000 0.3478 75.3
9 Chad Qualls 0.0000 0.2857 72.8

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Matt Harrison 3.3932
4.8706
(1093.7)
4.9951
(1038.7)
John Lackey 6.4125
4.1334
(1738.5)
4.1379
(1880.5)
Doug Fister 2.8290
4.1230
(1079.2)
4.6362
(1356.9)
Ryan Vogelsong 2.7050
3.9993
(927.6)
6.1338
(2385.6)
Bronson Arroyo 5.0653
4.0428
(926.2)
4.2090
(951.5)
Ubaldo Jiménez 4.6832
3.4171
(1090.6)
3.0585
(1546.3)
James Shields 2.8155
4.4852
(1568.8)
4.3811
(1276.4)
Brian Matusz 10.6913
4.3021
(1580.2)
4.3775
(1609.7)
Ryan Dempster 4.8040
3.7480
(983.8)
3.7540
(1150.9)

Individual Misses for ERA

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 3.3853 5.2330 1356.9
2 J.A. Happ 3.5200 5.3539 1322.5
3 Charlie Morton 5.4918 3.8272 1233.4
4 Josh Beckett 4.5562 2.8912 1230.5
5 Justin Verlander 3.6949 2.4024 1193.6
6 Kyle Lohse 4.8964 3.3929 1118.1
7 Johnny Cueto 4.0862 2.3077 1083.9
8 Ian Kennedy 4.1013 2.8784 1045.9
9 Justin Masterson 4.4164 3.2083 1041.8
10 Jered Weaver 3.5851 2.4059 1035.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 6.3984 3.7546 1613.9
2 Edinson Volquez 3.6565 5.7147 1131.9
3 Esmil Rogers 4.6901 7.0482 1056.3
4 Max Scherzer 3.4412 4.4308 1038.0
5 Ricky Nolasco 3.7759 4.6748 1029.4
6 Aaron Crow 6.7514 2.7581 994.0
7 Chad Billingsley 3.2996 4.2128 969.6
8 Bartolo Colon 5.6397 3.9980 961.4
9 Jeff Karstens 5.0625 3.3819 951.3
10 Vance Worley 4.9675 3.0076 942.0

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
John Lackey 1.6187
1.3505
(208.2)
1.3246
(256.9)
Clayton Kershaw 0.9771
1.2534
(241.0)
1.2390
(191.8)
Jake Westbrook 1.5327
1.3405
(165.2)
1.3398
(197.8)
Brian Matusz 2.1141
1.3639
(186.7)
1.3781
(192.9)
Justin Verlander 0.9203
1.2316
(290.0)
1.1953
(216.5)
Philip Humber 1.1779
1.4322
(163.8)
1.7188
(330.7)
Esmil Rogers 1.8916
1.4870
(168.3)
1.4789
(187.6)
Ricky Romero 1.1378
1.3730
(204.7)
1.3963
(189.8)
James Shields 1.0428
1.3582
(295.8)
1.2981
(198.7)
Doug Fister 1.0632
1.3024
(198.8)
1.3844
(236.0)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Beckett 1.3384 1.0259 230.5
2 Kyle Lohse 1.4767 1.1681 229.8
3 Tyler Chatwood 1.3279 1.6690 223.5
4 Cole Hamels 1.2284 0.9861 195.7
5 Mike Leake 1.4462 1.1750 179.6
6 Brian Duensing 1.2844 1.5155 172.8
7 Ian Kennedy 1.2848 1.0856 168.5
8 Kyle Drabek 1.3598 1.8051 166.9
9 Joel Pineiro 1.2605 1.5103 165.2
10 J.A. Happ 1.3156 1.5352 161.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 1.9455 1.2523 482.5
2 Josh Collmenter 1.5812 1.0691 286.0
3 Ricky Nolasco 1.1737 1.3981 245.9
4 Guillermo Moscoso 1.5993 1.0938 238.8
5 Chad Billingsley 1.2542 1.4521 206.8
6 Josh Tomlin 1.4363 1.0766 204.0
7 Ubaldo Jiménez 1.2324 1.4018 181.6
8 Brad Penny 1.4002 1.5633 172.4
9 Cory Luebke 1.4240 1.0668 169.6
10 Ryan Dempster 1.3102 1.4481 167.0