2011 Projection Evaluation

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eric Hosmer	1	563	562.0
2	Cesar Izturis	495	33	462.0
3	Jemile Weeks	1	437	436.0
4	Lastings Milledge	440	4	436.0
5	Trevor Crowe	462	32	430.0
6	Jacoby Ellsbury	313	732	419.0
7	Freddie Freeman	221	635	414.0
8	Danny Espinosa	264	658	394.0
9	Eric Thames	1	394	393.0
10	Adam LaRoche	565	177	388.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cedric Hunter	705	5	700.0
2	Eduardo Escobar	672	7	665.0
3	Osvaldo Martínez	662	23	639.0
4	Lars Anderson	644	5	639.0
5	Iván De Jesús Jr.	671	35	636.0
6	Alexi Amarista	692	56	636.0
7	Pete Kozma	651	22	629.0
8	Alex Liddi	666	44	622.0
9	Chris Carter	668	46	622.0
10	Brandon Laird	644	25	619.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Aubrey Huff	0.2994	0.3610 (30.6)	0.3556 (33.8)
Adam Dunn	0.2681	0.3842 (53.2)	0.3995 (66.3)
Jayson Werth	0.3218	0.3791 (31.4)	0.3652 (29.6)
Alex Gordon	0.3823	0.3232 (46.9)	0.3329 (32.5)
Matt Kemp	0.4229	0.3438 (60.6)	0.3416 (54.5)
José Bautista	0.4519	0.3696 (59.6)	0.3808 (45.1)
Alex Avila	0.3865	0.3196 (41.7)	0.3071 (42.5)
Mike Napoli	0.4464	0.3548 (43.4)	0.3674 (33.2)
Ryan Braun	0.4270	0.3804 (34.8)	0.3806 (27.8)
Casey McGehee	0.2778	0.3456 (35.4)	0.3292 (32.2)
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.3971	0.3222 (61.3)	0.3224 (53.1)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Curtis Granderson	0.3453	0.3908	37.5
2	David Ortiz	0.3646	0.4127	34.5
3	Miguel Cabrera	0.4045	0.4457	34.4
4	Ichiro Suzuki	0.3436	0.2876	34.0
5	Melky Cabrera	0.3101	0.3482	33.1
6	Casey Kotchman	0.3080	0.3566	32.3
7	Emilio Bonifácio	0.2881	0.3296	32.3
8	Jeff Francoeur	0.3078	0.3481	32.3
9	José Reyes	0.3360	0.3800	30.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Carl Crawford	0.3681	0.3009	37.4
2	Alex Rios	0.3323	0.2704	36.5
3	Jason Heyward	0.3875	0.3146	34.3
4	Justin Morneau	0.3926	0.2765	34.1
5	Jemile Weeks	0.2621	0.3318	29.5
6	Albert Pujols	0.4332	0.3910	28.9
7	Hanley Ramirez	0.3913	0.3196	28.5
8	Kelly Johnson	0.3579	0.3143	28.0
9	Lance Berkman	0.3669	0.4160	27.5

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Curtis Granderson	0.2446	0.1970 (31.6)	0.2029 (33.8)
Kelly Johnson	0.2659	0.1947 (42.5)	0.1873 (52.7)
David Ortiz	0.1372	0.2076 (43.7)	0.2136 (41.8)
Josh Willingham	0.2664	0.1953 (39.0)	0.2171 (31.9)
Nick Markakis	0.1047	0.1463 (31.1)	0.1491 (26.5)
Justin Upton	0.1869	0.2460 (41.1)	0.2385 (29.8)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ben Revere	0.1794	0.0852	46.2
2	Adam Dunn	0.2667	0.3569	43.8
3	J.P. Arencibia	0.1964	0.2737	36.6
4	Michael Young	0.1598	0.1132	33.4
5	Trayvon Robinson	0.1814	0.3935	32.6
6	Aramis Ramirez	0.1598	0.1102	32.2
7	Darwin Barney	0.1700	0.1173	31.2
8	Brent Morel	0.1942	0.1284	30.1
9	Drew Stubbs	0.2553	0.3010	29.8
10	José Reyes	0.1190	0.0700	29.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Freddie Freeman	0.1730	0.2236	36.8
2	Andrew McCutchen	0.1406	0.1858	35.6
3	Howie Kendrick	0.1549	0.2041	32.9
4	Carl Crawford	0.1408	0.1929	32.0
5	Dustin Pedroia	0.0812	0.1163	31.0
6	Alex Gonzalez	0.1676	0.2125	30.9
7	Sean Rodríguez	0.2768	0.1995	30.5
8	Brandon Crawford	0.2780	0.1409	28.6
9	Michael Brantley	0.1035	0.1532	28.3
10	Ryan Raburn	0.2132	0.2727	27.9

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Alberto Callaspo	0.1082	0.0705 (22.9)	0.0628 (23.5)
John Buck	0.1019	0.0642 (22.6)	0.0627 (20.0)
Miguel Cabrera	0.1570	0.1074 (37.6)	0.1193 (24.8)
Chipper Jones	0.0996	0.1533 (24.9)	0.1544 (28.8)
Raul Ibanez	0.0574	0.0987 (20.9)	0.0995 (25.1)
Albert Pujols	0.0937	0.1477 (31.9)	0.1495 (37.3)
Jonny Gomes	0.1290	0.0759 (21.7)	0.0738 (20.0)
Matt Kemp	0.1074	0.0773 (24.2)	0.0750 (21.3)
José Bautista	0.2015	0.1263 (52.6)	0.1407 (38.8)
Cody Ross	0.1063	0.0664 (20.7)	0.0576 (21.7)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joey Votto	0.1220	0.1530	25.9
2	Evan Longoria	0.1020	0.1394	24.4
3	Dustin Pedroia	0.0911	0.1176	23.1
4	Ian Kinsler	0.0972	0.1231	22.4
5	Andrew McCutchen	0.1034	0.1313	22.3
6	Nick Swisher	0.1200	0.1496	22.0
7	Darwin Barney	0.0810	0.0385	21.3
8	Giancarlo Stanton	0.0867	0.1165	20.9
9	Chris Iannetta	0.1203	0.1643	20.9
10	Mark Trumbo	0.0845	0.0436	20.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Wilson Ramos	0.0293	0.0874	24.6
2	Kosuke Fukudome	0.1398	0.1012	24.2
3	Melky Cabrera	0.0787	0.0496	21.7
4	Adrián González	0.1300	0.1035	20.1
5	Vladimir Guerrero	0.0612	0.0288	20.0
6	Derrek Lee	0.1075	0.0692	19.0
7	Carlos Lee	0.0597	0.0904	19.0
8	Mark Ellis	0.0769	0.0424	18.7
9	Justin Morneau	0.1294	0.0660	18.7
10	Geovany Soto	0.1326	0.0949	18.6

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Nyjer Morgan	0.0326	0.0148 (7.7)	0.0168 (6.9)
Juan Pierre	0.0098	0.0200 (7.1)	0.0213 (8.0)
Curtis Granderson	0.0174	0.0038 (9.5)	0.0048 (8.8)
Brent Lillibridge	0.0324	0.0076 (5.4)	0.0093 (5.0)
Brendan Ryan	0.0202	0.0082 (6.0)	0.0088 (5.8)
Alex Gonzalez	0.0017	0.0108 (5.3)	0.0117 (5.8)
Danny Espinosa	0.0289	0.0076 (14.1)	0.0135 (10.2)
Dustin Pedroia	0.0014	0.0089 (5.4)	0.0102 (6.3)
Casey Kotchman	0.0213	0.0105 (6.1)	0.0102 (6.4)
Sean Rodríguez	0.0413	0.0150 (11.5)	0.0222 (8.4)
Robinson Canó	0.0176	0.0081 (6.5)	0.0091 (5.9)
Justin Upton	0.0282	0.0071 (14.3)	0.0059 (15.1)
Gordon Beckham	0.0233	0.0119 (6.4)	0.0144 (5.0)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Carlos Quentin	0.0318	0.0476	7.7
2	Michael Morse	0.0114	0.0226	6.5
3	David DeJesus	0.0110	0.0217	5.5
4	Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.0084	0.0165	5.5
5	Justin Turner	0.0093	0.0205	5.5
6	Starlin Castro	0.0105	0.0028	5.4
7	Reed Johnson	0.0219	0.0414	5.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brett Wallace	0.0274	0.0079	7.3
2	Rickie Weeks Jr.	0.0294	0.0155	7.1
3	Darwin Barney	0.0034	0.0140	6.2
4	Chris Iannetta	0.0261	0.0117	6.0
5	Maicer Izturis	0.0058	0.0162	5.2
6	Mike Napoli	0.0191	0.0069	5.2
7	Geovany Soto	0.0022	0.0127	5.0

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Curtis Granderson	0.0965	0.0565 (28.8)	0.0651 (20.5)
Brent Lillibridge	0.1000	0.0279 (15.9)	0.0248 (15.9)
Aaron Hill	0.0175	0.0526 (19.1)	0.0517 (20.5)
Hideki Matsui	0.0270	0.0532 (14.3)	0.0536 (16.5)
J.J. Hardy	0.0679	0.0337 (20.3)	0.0373 (16.3)
Logan Morrison	0.0627	0.0244 (21.0)	0.0271 (17.7)
Adam Dunn	0.0458	0.0947 (23.4)	0.1258 (40.5)
Lance Berkman	0.0777	0.0547 (14.5)	0.0503 (15.1)
Matt Kemp	0.0867	0.0524 (24.8)	0.0517 (22.9)
Josh Willingham	0.0838	0.0579 (15.5)	0.0556 (14.9)
Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.0507	0.0167 (23.8)	0.0165 (21.6)
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.0558	0.0202 (27.3)	0.0159 (28.0)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mark Trumbo	0.0333	0.0686	21.1
2	José Bautista	0.0795	0.1059	18.4
3	Giancarlo Stanton	0.0672	0.0955	18.0
4	Adrian Beltré	0.0433	0.0724	16.2
5	J.P. Arencibia	0.0437	0.0735	15.3
6	B.J. Upton	0.0349	0.0569	15.1
7	Carlos Santana	0.0431	0.0634	14.5
8	Russell Martin	0.0243	0.0529	14.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Vladimir Guerrero	0.0526	0.0255	17.0
2	Adrián González	0.0739	0.0523	16.7
3	Michael Morse	0.0480	0.0775	16.0
4	Chris Heisey	0.0373	0.0874	14.9
5	Jack Cust	0.0749	0.0217	14.8
6	Jason Bay	0.0613	0.0351	14.3
7	Justin Morneau	0.0658	0.0180	14.2
8	Jason Giambi	0.0570	0.1494	13.8

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Hunter Pence	0.3613	0.3028 (42.1)	0.3049 (40.0)
Michael Young	0.3666	0.3213 (34.3)	0.3126 (39.6)
Alex Rios	0.2370	0.3007 (33.7)	0.2971 (32.3)
Alex Gordon	0.3568	0.2851 (52.7)	0.2988 (42.5)
Matt Kemp	0.3796	0.3241 (41.4)	0.3199 (43.5)
Casey Kotchman	0.3349	0.2636 (42.7)	0.2760 (35.1)
José Bautista	0.3085	0.2563 (37.2)	0.2508 (40.1)
Alex Avila	0.3631	0.2846 (45.8)	0.2946 (39.7)
Evan Longoria	0.2390	0.3189 (43.2)	0.3213 (45.2)
Ian Kinsler	0.2409	0.2917 (33.4)	0.2899 (32.8)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adrián González	0.3028	0.3804	58.7
2	Peter Bourjos	0.2605	0.3316	41.8
3	Emilio Bonifácio	0.3074	0.3624	38.2
4	Ichiro Suzuki	0.3488	0.2944	35.9
5	Freddie Freeman	0.2876	0.3390	35.6
6	Dan Uggla	0.3092	0.2530	34.6
7	Melky Cabrera	0.2835	0.3280	34.6
8	Martín Prado	0.3266	0.2653	33.4
9	Casey McGehee	0.3092	0.2494	33.1
10	Vernon Wells	0.2812	0.2141	33.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jemile Weeks	0.2542	0.3477	42.4
2	Adam Dunn	0.3173	0.2402	36.5
3	Michael Bourn	0.3192	0.3652	35.8
4	Miguel Cabrera	0.3179	0.3646	34.6
5	Victor Martinez	0.2924	0.3430	32.2
6	Mark Teixeira	0.2885	0.2388	31.5
7	Logan Morrison	0.3279	0.2645	31.4
8	José Reyes	0.3016	0.3515	31.3
9	Chone Figgins	0.3117	0.2129	29.8
10	Wilson Betemit	0.3147	0.3907	28.6

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Adrián González	0.2822	0.2290 (39.6)	0.2465 (26.4)
Chone Figgins	0.1647	0.2648 (30.7)	0.2601 (29.5)
Andre Ethier	0.2686	0.2188 (28.7)	0.2139 (30.8)
Hunter Pence	0.2688	0.2300 (27.4)	0.2303 (26.5)
Michael Young	0.2813	0.2449 (26.6)	0.2381 (30.6)
Dustin Pedroia	0.2491	0.2159 (25.8)	0.2120 (28.0)
Alex Gordon	0.2489	0.2085 (29.4)	0.2104 (27.4)
Casey Kotchman	0.2740	0.1984 (43.8)	0.2031 (40.6)
Matt Kemp	0.2895	0.2462 (31.3)	0.2393 (35.4)
José Bautista	0.2369	0.1755 (41.7)	0.1693 (45.1)
Evan Longoria	0.1648	0.2117 (25.7)	0.2150 (28.1)
Freddie Freeman	0.2615	0.2157 (30.5)	0.2163 (29.5)
Ian Kinsler	0.1683	0.2139 (31.4)	0.2150 (32.9)
Omar Infante	0.2283	0.2717 (26.4)	0.2693 (25.5)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jimmy Rollins	0.1836	0.2263	28.3
2	Rubén Tejada	0.1975	0.2702	28.1
3	Jhonny Peralta	0.2134	0.2584	27.2
4	Peter Bourjos	0.1860	0.2326	26.9
5	Emilio Bonifácio	0.2490	0.2886	26.8
6	Ichiro Suzuki	0.2923	0.2533	26.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Colby Rasmus	0.2312	0.1792	26.7
2	Adam Dunn	0.2251	0.1703	26.6
3	Michael Bourn	0.2469	0.2811	25.5
4	Jemile Weeks	0.1932	0.2500	25.3
5	Tyler Colvin	0.2120	0.0972	25.2
6	Matt Wieters	0.2512	0.2051	24.8

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Vernon Wells	0.0378	0.0748 (18.5)	0.0708 (17.1)
John Buck	0.0444	0.0839 (19.9)	0.0823 (19.8)
Miguel Cabrera	0.1048	0.0848 (15.2)	0.0835 (15.1)
Jeff Francoeur	0.1004	0.0617 (26.7)	0.0677 (21.9)
Mark Teixeira	0.0580	0.0833 (15.9)	0.0841 (17.4)
Albert Pujols	0.0591	0.0883 (17.7)	0.0833 (15.4)
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.0850	0.0535 (24.6)	0.0539 (23.2)
Alex Avila	0.1015	0.0632 (22.2)	0.0698 (17.9)
Ben Zobrist	0.1029	0.0668 (25.7)	0.0657 (25.5)
Michael Morse	0.0976	0.0690 (17.6)	0.0714 (15.4)
Kelly Shoppach	0.0222	0.0909 (16.9)	0.0970 (18.8)
Nick Markakis	0.0557	0.0853 (19.8)	0.0847 (20.3)
Edwin Encarnación	0.0923	0.0638 (16.2)	0.0625 (16.1)
Adam Lind	0.0428	0.0840 (21.2)	0.0835 (21.7)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Gordon	0.0723	0.0991	19.9
2	Dexter Fowler	0.0702	0.0989	17.3
3	Martín Prado	0.0833	0.0531	16.7
4	Carlos Quentin	0.0651	0.0975	16.6
5	Adrián González	0.0712	0.0920	16.3
6	Ben Revere	0.0573	0.0218	16.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Getz	0.0573	0.0171	17.0
2	Maicer Izturis	0.0584	0.0914	16.6
3	Carlos Beltrán	0.0680	0.0942	16.0
4	Ryan Theriot	0.0328	0.0637	15.3
5	Reed Johnson	0.0652	0.1209	15.0
6	Jed Lowrie	0.1004	0.0560	14.9

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Austin Jackson	0.0264	0.0187 (5.4)	0.0174 (7.2)
Dustin Ackley	0.0279	0.0071 (8.0)	0.0161 (5.1)
Jemile Weeks	0.0230	0.0071 (7.1)	0.0136 (4.9)
José Reyes	0.0323	0.0220 (6.3)	0.0222 (7.0)
Andres Torres	0.0040	0.0248 (8.1)	0.0269 (8.5)
Carlos González	0.0084	0.0186 (5.3)	0.0203 (5.5)
Dexter Fowler	0.0424	0.0292 (7.6)	0.0327 (6.4)
Nick Hundley	0.0251	0.0078 (5.4)	0.0080 (5.8)
Robinson Canó	0.0138	0.0063 (5.4)	0.0058 (6.6)
Seth Smith	0.0240	0.0133 (5.9)	0.0140 (6.3)
Shane Victorino	0.0360	0.0200 (9.6)	0.0196 (10.6)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Giancarlo Stanton	0.0040	0.0155	7.2
2	Alex Presley	0.0067	0.0347	6.5
3	Cliff Pennington	0.0161	0.0048	6.2
4	Peter Bourjos	0.0186	0.0294	6.2
5	Ryan Howard	0.0120	0.0028	5.7
6	Jason Bay	0.0144	0.0030	5.6
7	Kelly Johnson	0.0105	0.0192	5.6
8	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	0.0000	0.0134	5.3
9	Miguel Olivo	0.0139	0.0031	5.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Avila	0.0000	0.0123	7.7
2	Colby Rasmus	0.0056	0.0173	7.1
3	J.P. Arencibia	0.0027	0.0138	6.2
4	Jimmy Rollins	0.0155	0.0040	6.2
5	Wilson Betemit	0.0043	0.0186	5.7
6	Tsuyoshi Nishioka	0.0249	0.0000	5.6
7	Carlos Lee	0.0021	0.0078	4.8
8	Omar Infante	0.0093	0.0151	4.8
9	Aaron Hill	0.0000	0.0067	4.8

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Curtis Granderson	0.1968	0.1426 (41.6)	0.1449 (38.9)
Aubrey Huff	0.0777	0.1304 (27.0)	0.1332 (29.6)
Matt Wieters	0.1307	0.0898 (25.8)	0.1013 (18.6)
Adam Dunn	0.0726	0.1248 (22.9)	0.1332 (27.9)
José Reyes	0.1724	0.1344 (25.8)	0.1418 (20.4)
Howie Kendrick	0.1475	0.1189 (20.2)	0.1153 (21.3)
Jayson Werth	0.1063	0.1497 (24.2)	0.1401 (19.1)
Brennan Boesch	0.1589	0.1034 (29.0)	0.0945 (32.4)
Matt Kemp	0.1669	0.1332 (27.4)	0.1375 (23.3)
Ryan Braun	0.1733	0.1459 (21.0)	0.1431 (21.8)
Melky Cabrera	0.1445	0.1068 (30.9)	0.1002 (34.3)
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.1626	0.1374 (22.9)	0.1370 (21.9)
Ryan Roberts	0.1550	0.1152 (25.4)	0.1130 (25.7)
Bobby Abreu	0.0923	0.1365 (22.3)	0.1306 (19.8)
Omar Infante	0.0859	0.1224 (19.4)	0.1204 (19.3)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Justin Upton	0.1301	0.1558	21.4
2	Adrian Beltré	0.1226	0.1562	20.8
3	Casey McGehee	0.1167	0.0767	20.4
4	Mike Napoli	0.1268	0.1667	19.8
5	Justin Morneau	0.1389	0.0660	19.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Robinson Canó	0.1263	0.1527	20.9
2	Yadier Molina	0.0714	0.1062	20.3
3	Tsuyoshi Nishioka	0.1459	0.0583	20.0
4	Andrew McCutchen	0.1621	0.1283	20.0
5	Nick Markakis	0.1317	0.1006	19.2

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Curtis Granderson	0.1722	0.1107 (46.1)	0.1208 (36.7)
Robinson Canó	0.1733	0.1333 (30.7)	0.1339 (27.9)
Adam Dunn	0.0847	0.1504 (30.0)	0.1612 (37.1)
Jayson Werth	0.0894	0.1344 (25.8)	0.1259 (22.6)
Michael Young	0.1538	0.1186 (27.9)	0.1159 (27.2)
Alex Rios	0.0772	0.1228 (23.0)	0.1279 (28.0)
Matt Kemp	0.1829	0.1316 (38.9)	0.1375 (32.4)
Alex Avila	0.1488	0.1091 (24.8)	0.1022 (26.6)
Josh Willingham	0.1741	0.1210 (32.8)	0.1184 (32.2)
Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.1379	0.1002 (28.6)	0.0926 (31.3)
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.1434	0.0863 (45.7)	0.0835 (45.1)
Adrian Beltré	0.2000	0.1297 (39.7)	0.1389 (32.9)
Drew Stubbs	0.0646	0.1199 (34.1)	0.1043 (25.9)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Logan Morrison	0.0847	0.1371	30.2
2	J.P. Arencibia	0.1116	0.1605	26.3
3	Andrew McCutchen	0.0983	0.1313	25.9
4	Mark Trumbo	0.1127	0.1518	25.4
5	Alfonso Soriano	0.1296	0.1732	24.8
6	Andres Torres	0.1149	0.0477	24.7
7	Russell Martin	0.0923	0.1366	23.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Michael Morse	0.1114	0.1652	31.9
2	Pedro Alvarez	0.1755	0.0725	26.6
3	Mike Moustakas	0.1520	0.0822	24.9
4	Todd Helton	0.0928	0.1405	24.3
5	Melky Cabrera	0.0912	0.1232	23.7
6	Maicer Izturis	0.1250	0.0769	22.9
7	Kosuke Fukudome	0.0975	0.0580	22.8

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Juan Pierre	0.1317	0.2614 (97.8)	0.2761 (101.4)
Jason Bourgeois	0.4493	0.1765 (66.8)	0.2126 (60.1)
Jemile Weeks	0.1964	0.0736 (50.2)	0.0899 (47.3)
Aaron Hill	0.1591	0.0407 (63.1)	0.0320 (73.6)
Eduardo Núñez	0.2785	0.1186 (51.4)	0.1409 (47.1)
Jeff Francoeur	0.1517	0.0417 (67.0)	0.0355 (77.4)
Rajai Davis	0.5313	0.3158 (70.2)	0.3534 (60.7)
Erick Aybar	0.2128	0.1042 (61.0)	0.1232 (55.2)
Ryan Braun	0.1908	0.0897 (58.6)	0.1078 (53.3)
Tony Campana	0.5714	0.0736 (75.9)	0.0736 (77.4)
Coco Crisp	0.3451	0.2323 (61.2)	0.2500 (56.4)
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.2053	0.2892 (67.2)	0.3280 (88.6)
Cameron Maybin	0.2837	0.0816 (110.3)	0.1119 (98.6)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ben Revere	0.0536	0.2537	92.5
2	Dee Strange-Gordon	0.0736	0.3750	68.4
3	Alcides Escobar	0.0726	0.1926	67.1
4	Sam Fuld	0.0492	0.2469	65.7
5	Jordan Schafer	0.0526	0.2500	64.1
6	Chase d'Arnaud	0.0736	0.4286	52.4
7	Alex Rios	0.1778	0.0965	50.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eric Young Jr.	0.0736	0.3803	70.6
2	Will Venable	0.1333	0.2680	56.1
3	Nyjer Morgan	0.2345	0.1102	52.6
4	Carl Crawford	0.2635	0.1667	51.2
5	Orlando Hudson	0.0483	0.1532	48.4
6	Mike Aviles	0.0776	0.2295	47.5
7	Grady Sizemore	0.1622	0.0000	47.3

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Miguel Cabrera	0.3444	0.3098 (27.5)	0.3037 (27.3)
Kelly Johnson	0.2220	0.2709 (26.7)	0.2749 (33.1)
David Ortiz	0.3086	0.2579 (33.9)	0.2600 (28.7)
Adam Dunn	0.1590	0.2571 (46.0)	0.2515 (46.4)
José Reyes	0.3371	0.2821 (35.3)	0.2843 (30.2)
Michael Young	0.3376	0.2899 (36.5)	0.2850 (35.4)
Alex Gordon	0.3028	0.2437 (44.5)	0.2435 (40.1)
Matt Kemp	0.3239	0.2740 (38.0)	0.2710 (35.7)
José Bautista	0.3021	0.2505 (37.3)	0.2489 (34.1)
Alex Avila	0.2953	0.2448 (30.7)	0.2388 (30.5)
Mike Napoli	0.3198	0.2563 (29.7)	0.2541 (27.9)
Casey McGehee	0.2234	0.2827 (32.4)	0.2717 (29.6)
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.3212	0.2792 (34.7)	0.2840 (26.4)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adrián González	0.2830	0.3381	43.2
2	Melky Cabrera	0.2613	0.3055	34.9
3	Casey Kotchman	0.2500	0.3060	34.5
4	Emilio Bonifácio	0.2547	0.2956	29.6
5	Ichiro Suzuki	0.3175	0.2718	29.2
6	Hunter Pence	0.2755	0.3135	28.9
7	Jhonny Peralta	0.2583	0.2990	26.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jemile Weeks	0.2176	0.3030	36.8
2	Carl Crawford	0.3123	0.2549	31.5
3	Alex Rios	0.2727	0.2272	26.6
4	Hanley Ramirez	0.3091	0.2426	26.0
5	Victor Martinez	0.2857	0.3296	25.5
6	Jason Heyward	0.2811	0.2273	25.0
7	Michael Bourn	0.2589	0.2942	24.7

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Vernon Wells	0.2476	0.3276 (37.7)	0.3127 (35.5)
Miguel Cabrera	0.4477	0.3859 (48.5)	0.3882 (39.5)
Chone Figgins	0.2412	0.3602 (34.5)	0.3528 (35.6)
Hunter Pence	0.3698	0.3300 (32.4)	0.3257 (28.1)
Adam Dunn	0.2923	0.3716 (35.0)	0.3832 (46.1)
Michael Young	0.3803	0.3432 (31.5)	0.3338 (30.6)
Emilio Bonifácio	0.3603	0.3107 (37.4)	0.3144 (28.1)
Albert Pujols	0.3656	0.4211 (30.5)	0.4191 (36.1)
Raul Ibanez	0.2887	0.3483 (29.3)	0.3363 (28.6)
Matt Kemp	0.3991	0.3311 (52.9)	0.3266 (48.6)
José Bautista	0.4473	0.3519 (68.2)	0.3619 (54.6)
Alex Avila	0.3887	0.3264 (39.1)	0.3200 (36.7)
Mike Napoli	0.4144	0.3360 (37.6)	0.3413 (30.7)
Casey McGehee	0.2800	0.3386 (29.9)	0.3224 (26.7)
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.3760	0.3355 (36.1)	0.3362 (27.7)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Casey Kotchman	0.3143	0.3783	40.9
2	Alex Gordon	0.3324	0.3765	36.4
3	José Reyes	0.3359	0.3836	33.0
4	David Ortiz	0.3526	0.3983	32.9
5	Ichiro Suzuki	0.3632	0.3097	32.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Carl Crawford	0.3595	0.2892	39.0
2	Jason Heyward	0.3927	0.3194	34.4
3	Alex Rios	0.3212	0.2649	33.2
4	Kelly Johnson	0.3501	0.3038	29.6
5	Justin Morneau	0.3804	0.2847	28.1

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Aubrey Huff	0.3704	0.4728 (51.9)	0.4646 (56.7)
Yadier Molina	0.4653	0.3761 (52.8)	0.3656 (49.7)
Adam Dunn	0.2771	0.5122 (110.3)	0.5392 (131.9)
Jayson Werth	0.3886	0.5000 (64.1)	0.4751 (58.6)
Alex Gordon	0.5025	0.3987 (80.3)	0.4073 (63.0)
Matt Kemp	0.5864	0.4592 (96.4)	0.4580 (85.8)
José Bautista	0.6082	0.5051 (75.8)	0.5244 (52.4)
Melky Cabrera	0.4696	0.3801 (72.1)	0.3832 (58.3)
Alex Avila	0.5065	0.3953 (68.3)	0.3652 (75.8)
Mike Napoli	0.6314	0.4783 (71.7)	0.5055 (52.8)
Casey McGehee	0.3462	0.4538 (57.0)	0.4302 (52.7)
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.5515	0.3993 (120.7)	0.3967 (110.5)
Michael Morse	0.5498	0.4700 (53.2)	0.4569 (51.3)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Curtis Granderson	0.4597	0.5523	72.7
2	Jeff Francoeur	0.3962	0.4759	60.6
3	Mark Trumbo	0.3842	0.4768	60.3
4	Ryan Braun	0.5189	0.5968	57.0
5	Adrian Beltré	0.4662	0.5606	56.2
6	Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.3906	0.4603	54.9
7	J.J. Hardy	0.4128	0.4915	51.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Justin Morneau	0.5275	0.3333	57.0
2	Lance Berkman	0.4492	0.5471	55.3
3	Alex Rios	0.4397	0.3482	54.3
4	Hanley Ramirez	0.5118	0.3787	52.7
5	Aaron Hill	0.4440	0.3558	52.6
6	Pedro Alvarez	0.4787	0.2894	50.6
7	J.D. Drew	0.4725	0.3024	49.7

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Jon Garland	230	764 (534.0)	820 (590.0)
Craig Stammen	38	538 (500.0)	645 (607.0)
Scott Feldman	129	629 (500.0)	723 (594.0)
Dallas Braden	73	706 (633.0)	700 (627.0)
Scott Kazmir	14	668 (654.0)	686 (672.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ryan Vogelsong	1	752	751.0
2	Michael Pineda	1	696	695.0
3	Zack Britton	1	666	665.0
4	Tyler Chatwood	1	633	632.0
5	Josh Collmenter	1	621	620.0
6	Joe Blanton	716	180	536.0
7	Barry Zito	758	225	533.0
8	Kevin Millwood	747	222	525.0
9	Jeremy Hellickson	250	774	524.0
10	Dave Bush	682	166	516.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Elih Villanueva	726	20	706.0
2	Eric Hacker	695	22	673.0
3	Corey Kluber	697	25	672.0
4	Alan Johnson	690	20	670.0
5	Brandon Dickson	690	34	656.0
6	Alex Torres	666	39	627.0
7	Aaron Thompson	663	41	622.0
8	Michael Crotta	678	56	622.0
9	Andy Oliver	668	49	619.0
10	Adam Wilk	673	57	616.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
John Lackey	0.3725	0.3253 (39.2)	0.3218 (49.9)
Ryan Dempster	0.3417	0.3144 (28.9)	0.3105 (42.0)
Brian Matusz	0.4750	0.3225 (38.7)	0.3252 (40.7)
Joel Pineiro	0.3552	0.3145 (29.1)	0.3236 (30.3)
James Shields	0.2758	0.3376 (54.8)	0.3288 (35.6)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.3313	0.2922 (36.7)	0.2846 (51.9)
Doug Fister	0.2722	0.3155 (33.0)	0.3358 (41.2)
Bronson Arroyo	0.3657	0.3150 (48.1)	0.3191 (53.9)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Justin Verlander	0.2973	0.2469	43.4
2	Josh Beckett	0.3298	0.2692	42.3
3	Brian Duensing	0.3061	0.3583	41.1
4	Cole Hamels	0.3108	0.2615	37.2
5	Johnny Cueto	0.3289	0.2658	36.3
6	Tyler Chatwood	0.3156	0.3649	34.8
7	Kyle Lohse	0.3456	0.2955	34.5
8	Clayton Kershaw	0.2895	0.2463	34.3
9	Danny Duffy	0.3156	0.3751	30.8
10	Matt Harrison	0.3463	0.3009	30.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Philip Humber	0.3985	0.2884	63.3
2	Ryan Vogelsong	0.3830	0.2961	53.0
3	Max Scherzer	0.2997	0.3390	46.5
4	Ricky Nolasco	0.3004	0.3327	43.4
5	Chad Billingsley	0.2909	0.3206	38.3
6	Brad Penny	0.3350	0.3657	37.9
7	Guillermo Moscoso	0.3595	0.2739	36.4
8	Jake Westbrook	0.3175	0.3429	33.9
9	Edinson Volquez	0.3088	0.3607	33.4
10	Josh Collmenter	0.3508	0.2833	31.7

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Brad Penny	0.0922	0.1551 (52.4)	0.1380 (45.8)
Brandon Beachy	0.2860	0.1873 (56.9)	0.2024 (42.8)
Ricky Nolasco	0.1661	0.2187 (49.0)	0.2315 (68.2)
Jeff Francis	0.1133	0.1621 (41.1)	0.1519 (40.0)
Cory Luebke	0.2775	0.1901 (47.2)	0.1507 (64.1)
Jason Hammel	0.1272	0.1768 (38.4)	0.1782 (45.9)
Carl Pavano	0.1068	0.1514 (44.9)	0.1469 (49.0)
Michael Pineda	0.2486	0.1862 (41.8)	0.1800 (39.9)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Craig Kimbrel	0.2293	0.4150	56.1
2	Cliff Lee	0.1984	0.2587	53.3
3	Kenley Jansen	0.2262	0.4404	46.2
4	Zack Greinke	0.2149	0.2811	45.6
5	Aníbal Sánchez	0.1860	0.2434	45.6
6	Tyler Chatwood	0.1862	0.1169	45.4
7	Sergio Santos	0.2000	0.3538	39.4
8	Kevin Correia	0.1731	0.1167	38.8
9	Kyle McClellan	0.1852	0.1252	37.8
10	Matt Garza	0.1876	0.2348	37.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Madison Bumgarner	0.1516	0.2263	53.6
2	Jeremy Hellickson	0.2070	0.1512	51.9
3	Alexi Ogando	0.2454	0.1818	51.8
4	Max Scherzer	0.2552	0.2089	47.9
5	Bartolo Colon	0.1170	0.1945	46.1
6	Carlos Villanueva	0.2382	0.1498	45.2
7	Tim Lincecum	0.2808	0.2444	42.8
8	Chad Billingsley	0.2226	0.1834	41.8
9	Colby Lewis	0.2390	0.2014	41.0
10	Vance Worley	0.1348	0.2152	38.3

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Josh Collmenter	0.0451	0.0811 (20.0)	0.1113 (34.4)
Jordan Zimmermann	0.0468	0.0804 (19.8)	0.0871 (19.5)
Francisco Liriano	0.1269	0.0858 (26.5)	0.0824 (32.7)
Josh Tomlin	0.0317	0.0775 (27.8)	0.0782 (23.7)
Brandon McCarthy	0.0362	0.0861 (31.9)	0.0791 (22.2)
Clayton Kershaw	0.0592	0.1032 (36.8)	0.1058 (32.7)
Jason Hammel	0.0920	0.0681 (20.4)	0.0590 (32.4)
J.A. Happ	0.1189	0.0966 (18.1)	0.0967 (23.0)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kyle Drabek	0.0831	0.1507	26.0
2	Tim Collins	0.0811	0.1627	25.2
3	Aroldis Chapman	0.0863	0.1981	23.9
4	Yovani Gallardo	0.0995	0.0682	23.8
5	Jaime García	0.0909	0.0605	22.0
6	Ian Kennedy	0.0893	0.0611	22.0
7	Tyler Chatwood	0.0811	0.1122	22.0
8	Daniel Hudson	0.0813	0.0543	21.4
9	Henry Alberto Rodriguez	0.0914	0.1525	19.1
10	Jonathan Sánchez	0.1117	0.1486	18.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ryan Vogelsong	0.1591	0.0811	50.6
2	Dillon Gee	0.0703	0.1006	29.0
3	Alexi Ogando	0.1136	0.0620	28.3
4	Nick Blackburn	0.0542	0.0806	24.9
5	Kevin Gregg	0.0672	0.1455	24.5
6	James Shields	0.0524	0.0667	24.4
7	Tim Lincecum	0.0811	0.0956	22.7
8	Craig Kimbrel	0.1888	0.1046	22.5
9	Aaron Harang	0.0630	0.0807	20.4
10	John Lannan	0.0798	0.0941	20.2

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
John Lackey	0.0256	0.0102 (11.4)	0.0115 (12.0)
Ricky Romero	0.0153	0.0102 (4.7)	0.0098 (6.9)
Tim Hudson	0.0170	0.0084 (7.6)	0.0080 (9.8)
Dillon Gee	0.0198	0.0060 (9.7)	0.0108 (7.9)
Brandon Morrow	0.0154	0.0091 (4.9)	0.0092 (6.5)
Alfredo Aceves	0.0316	0.0116 (9.5)	0.0122 (10.2)
Alex Burnett	0.0356	0.0091 (5.9)	0.0131 (5.5)
Shaun Marcum	0.0000	0.0092 (7.6)	0.0087 (5.4)
Ernesto Frieri	0.0326	0.0056 (7.4)	0.0104 (6.7)
Jhoulys Chacín	0.0048	0.0116 (5.6)	0.0141 (5.9)
Randy Wolf	0.0144	0.0089 (5.0)	0.0094 (6.4)
Gavin Floyd	0.0138	0.0068 (5.6)	0.0063 (7.7)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Carpenter	0.0114	0.0060	5.4
2	Justin Verlander	0.0085	0.0031	5.3
3	Jake Westbrook	0.0089	0.0025	5.2
4	Doug Fister	0.0077	0.0137	5.2
5	Matt Harrison	0.0080	0.0013	5.2
6	Chris Volstad	0.0083	0.0014	5.0
7	Juan Abreu	0.0084	0.1471	4.7
8	Erik Bedard	0.0104	0.0018	4.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Zack Britton	0.0142	0.0015	7.0
2	Matt Cain	0.0044	0.0099	6.9
3	Ted Lilly	0.0053	0.0112	6.4
4	R.A. Dickey	0.0056	0.0103	6.0
5	Roberto Hernandez	0.0122	0.0168	5.6
6	Jon Lester	0.0095	0.0138	5.1
7	Brandon McCarthy	0.0095	0.0000	5.1
8	John Danks	0.0048	0.0096	5.1

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Roy Halladay	0.0148	0.0309 (14.1)	0.0316 (13.8)
Yovani Gallardo	0.0452	0.0322 (12.1)	0.0323 (12.9)
Charlie Morton	0.0105	0.0384 (20.6)	0.0328 (15.6)
Matt Cain	0.0137	0.0344 (17.8)	0.0308 (13.7)
Brian Matusz	0.0984	0.0367 (15.4)	0.0369 (15.5)
Colby Lewis	0.0576	0.0362 (18.7)	0.0419 (14.8)
Johnny Cueto	0.0170	0.0389 (13.2)	0.0392 (12.8)
James McDonald	0.0455	0.0293 (13.0)	0.0320 (11.7)
Edinson Volquez	0.0601	0.0326 (13.9)	0.0377 (12.0)
Bronson Arroyo	0.0661	0.0416 (21.8)	0.0413 (22.9)
Matt Garza	0.0243	0.0412 (13.3)	0.0423 (13.4)
Jake Arrieta	0.0572	0.0296 (14.9)	0.0364 (12.0)
A.J. Burnett	0.0542	0.0387 (13.8)	0.0396 (13.9)
Randy Wells	0.0509	0.0306 (12.4)	0.0316 (12.4)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jordan Zimmermann	0.0455	0.0240	13.5
2	Alex White	0.0339	0.0877	13.0
3	Ricky Nolasco	0.0441	0.0287	12.8
4	Matt Harrison	0.0389	0.0221	12.2
5	Madison Bumgarner	0.0350	0.0199	11.9
6	Ricky Romero	0.0287	0.0403	11.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Philip Humber	0.0621	0.0273	22.2
2	Edwin Jackson	0.0435	0.0247	14.5
3	Brandon McCarthy	0.0422	0.0203	13.7
4	Max Scherzer	0.0346	0.0487	13.4
5	Tommy Hanson	0.0277	0.0487	12.4
6	Anthony Vasquez	0.0300	0.1083	11.7

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Ryan Dempster	0.3241	0.2950 (28.4)	0.2919 (35.6)
Ricky Romero	0.2423	0.3031 (52.9)	0.3065 (51.4)
Ricky Nolasco	0.3314	0.3033 (27.7)	0.2940 (40.5)
Guillermo Moscoso	0.2211	0.2963 (37.9)	0.3174 (46.4)
Félix Hernández	0.3066	0.2793 (29.3)	0.2823 (31.2)
Jeremy Hellickson	0.2232	0.2874 (47.3)	0.2941 (48.6)
Chris Carpenter	0.3118	0.2792 (35.6)	0.2822 (37.6)
Trevor Cahill	0.3023	0.2608 (40.2)	0.2718 (34.8)
Josh Beckett	0.2451	0.3112 (48.3)	0.3106 (44.0)
Edwin Jackson	0.3302	0.2980 (30.3)	0.2943 (37.9)
James Shields	0.2584	0.3160 (53.1)	0.3127 (45.0)
Justin Verlander	0.2362	0.2980 (56.9)	0.2949 (49.0)
Matt Garza	0.3060	0.2748 (28.8)	0.2761 (31.9)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.3141	0.2822 (28.7)	0.2790 (35.6)
CC Sabathia	0.3179	0.2847 (35.7)	0.2888 (36.6)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brian Duensing	0.2819	0.3295	36.0
2	Kyle Lohse	0.3140	0.2687	32.7
3	Cole Hamels	0.2942	0.2551	30.6
4	Daniel Hudson	0.2673	0.2954	28.7
5	Jered Weaver	0.2831	0.2496	28.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Madison Bumgarner	0.2882	0.3220	35.4
2	Ryan Vogelsong	0.3333	0.2801	33.9
3	John Lackey	0.3025	0.3389	33.1
4	Jake Westbrook	0.2831	0.3127	30.5
5	Jaime García	0.2912	0.3184	29.2

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Derek Holland	0.2423	0.2151 (24.1)	0.2147 (28.2)
Ricky Romero	0.1761	0.2311 (49.2)	0.2323 (46.1)
Ricky Nolasco	0.2500	0.2198 (28.1)	0.2191 (32.7)
Chris Carpenter	0.2610	0.2102 (51.8)	0.2147 (51.9)
Félix Hernández	0.2558	0.2191 (36.7)	0.2145 (45.4)
Jeremy Hellickson	0.1446	0.2184 (56.1)	0.2225 (55.7)
Trevor Cahill	0.2357	0.1996 (33.6)	0.2026 (35.0)
James Shields	0.2003	0.2298 (27.5)	0.2337 (26.9)
Justin Verlander	0.1827	0.2230 (37.8)	0.2237 (34.1)
Matt Garza	0.2438	0.2056 (33.1)	0.2059 (36.7)
Jhoulys Chacín	0.1767	0.2232 (37.4)	0.2173 (28.7)
Luke Hochevar	0.1854	0.2234 (30.6)	0.2304 (32.7)
Kyle Lohse	0.1841	0.2243 (30.1)	0.2272 (28.8)
CC Sabathia	0.2552	0.2179 (38.0)	0.2189 (41.5)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tim Lincecum	0.2312	0.1937	32.6
2	A.J. Burnett	0.2294	0.1978	25.4
3	John Lackey	0.2232	0.2556	25.0
4	Alfredo Aceves	0.2114	0.1581	24.7
5	Tyler Chatwood	0.2190	0.2564	24.5
6	Antonio Bastardo	0.2295	0.1220	23.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Roy Halladay	0.2193	0.2515	35.5
2	Guillermo Moscoso	0.2360	0.1658	33.8
3	Felipe Paulino	0.2293	0.2769	32.0
4	Madison Bumgarner	0.2195	0.2492	30.0
5	Edwin Jackson	0.2195	0.2464	28.2
6	Jaime García	0.2206	0.2488	28.1

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Roy Halladay	0.0407	0.0605 (16.9)	0.0653 (20.6)
Chris Capuano	0.0929	0.0721 (18.0)	0.0663 (23.4)
Ryan Dempster	0.0879	0.0632 (23.2)	0.0659 (21.6)
Tim Lincecum	0.0838	0.0573 (25.3)	0.0630 (21.0)
J.A. Happ	0.0873	0.0638 (17.6)	0.0659 (16.8)
John Axford	0.0158	0.0738 (17.2)	0.0678 (15.1)
Josh Beckett	0.0451	0.0784 (24.2)	0.0705 (17.5)
Daniel Hudson	0.0783	0.0528 (25.0)	0.0634 (16.0)
Roberto Hernandez	0.0828	0.0608 (19.7)	0.0651 (16.8)
Alfredo Simon	0.1092	0.0577 (26.6)	0.0684 (21.7)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.0836	0.0636 (17.9)	0.0605 (21.1)
A.J. Burnett	0.0887	0.0724 (15.0)	0.0694 (18.3)
Zack Greinke	0.0919	0.0662 (19.6)	0.0663 (20.1)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Yovani Gallardo	0.0832	0.0473	29.6
2	Brian Duensing	0.0534	0.0843	23.1
3	James Shields	0.0772	0.0535	21.5
4	Cole Hamels	0.0731	0.0476	20.2
5	Francisco Liriano	0.0748	0.0418	18.6
6	Justin Verlander	0.0676	0.0488	16.6
7	Derek Holland	0.0824	0.0614	16.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ryan Vogelsong	0.0754	0.0451	20.9
2	Gio González	0.0677	0.0417	20.2
3	Jeremy Guthrie	0.0639	0.0836	19.7
4	Tim Wakefield	0.0645	0.0893	18.5
5	Brad Bergesen	0.0669	0.1032	17.5
6	Félix Hernández	0.0615	0.0431	15.3
7	Casey Coleman	0.0639	0.0989	14.9

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Kerry Wood	0.0294	0.0069 (5.1)	0.0077 (4.8)
Aaron Cook	0.0175	0.0065 (4.9)	0.0058 (5.0)
Ryan Dempster	0.0138	0.0057 (7.2)	0.0056 (6.9)
Livan Hernandez	0.0137	0.0067 (5.3)	0.0063 (5.3)
Jeff Niemann	0.0147	0.0061 (5.0)	0.0059 (4.9)
Jhoulys Chacín	0.0159	0.0060 (8.3)	0.0074 (6.8)
Jeff Karstens	0.0000	0.0107 (7.1)	0.0070 (4.9)
Cory Gearrin	0.0652	0.0069 (5.0)	0.0054 (5.1)
Johnny Cueto	0.0000	0.0077 (4.8)	0.0071 (4.6)
Josh Beckett	0.0000	0.0071 (5.4)	0.0066 (5.3)
Danny Duffy	0.0253	0.0069 (8.8)	0.0080 (8.1)
Mat Latos	0.0168	0.0044 (10.0)	0.0059 (8.5)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.0223	0.0075 (12.3)	0.0067 (12.6)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tim Lincecum	0.0099	0.0035	5.7
2	Chad Billingsley	0.0099	0.0035	5.2
3	Guillermo Moscoso	0.0123	0.0025	5.1
4	Joel Pineiro	0.0119	0.0039	5.0
5	Bartolo Colon	0.0050	0.0121	5.0
6	Jason Marquis	0.0085	0.0000	4.9
7	Rick Porcello	0.0056	0.0115	4.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Luke Hochevar	0.0065	0.0179	9.3
2	Vinnie Pestano	0.0067	0.0299	5.7
3	Derek Holland	0.0082	0.0017	5.7
4	Jake Westbrook	0.0062	0.0130	5.3
5	Aníbal Sánchez	0.0067	0.0130	5.0
6	Zack Greinke	0.0066	0.0135	4.7
7	Max Scherzer	0.0067	0.0123	4.5

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
John Lackey	0.1602	0.1175 (34.1)	0.1151 (40.5)
Brian Matusz	0.2449	0.1163 (32.3)	0.1195 (33.0)
J.A. Happ	0.1476	0.0987 (36.4)	0.1183 (27.0)
Tim Wakefield	0.1625	0.1297 (24.4)	0.1296 (28.7)
James Shields	0.0851	0.1274 (38.0)	0.1223 (26.9)
Roberto Hernandez	0.1501	0.1274 (21.6)	0.1248 (28.9)
Doug Fister	0.0869	0.1175 (23.9)	0.1276 (27.3)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.1350	0.0961 (34.7)	0.0865 (47.7)
Bronson Arroyo	0.1392	0.1137 (24.6)	0.1192 (25.2)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brian Duensing	0.0961	0.1435	36.0
2	Charlie Morton	0.1504	0.1066	31.2
3	Josh Beckett	0.1258	0.0847	29.0
4	Justin Verlander	0.1068	0.0753	27.3
5	Ian Kennedy	0.1146	0.0811	27.2
6	Jered Weaver	0.1024	0.0702	26.8
7	Eric O'Flaherty	0.1096	0.0299	23.0
8	Kyle Lohse	0.1353	0.1032	22.3
9	Justin Masterson	0.1256	0.0980	22.1
10	Joel Pineiro	0.1125	0.1426	21.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ryan Vogelsong	0.1490	0.0824	42.9
2	Philip Humber	0.1611	0.1050	31.5
3	Félix Hernández	0.0801	0.1027	30.9
4	Chad Billingsley	0.0925	0.1182	29.2
5	Ricky Nolasco	0.1087	0.1313	28.6
6	Edinson Volquez	0.1002	0.1472	27.6
7	Ryan Dempster	0.1041	0.1260	27.6
8	Max Scherzer	0.0976	0.1212	27.6
9	Jaime García	0.0986	0.1211	26.4
10	Brandon Morrow	0.1109	0.1326	24.2

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
John Lackey	0.1534	0.1073 (37.0)	0.1074 (42.3)
Ryan Dempster	0.1226	0.0982 (24.7)	0.0979 (31.4)
Ryan Vogelsong	0.0718	0.1029 (20.6)	0.1389 (42.3)
Félix Hernández	0.0934	0.0751 (21.2)	0.0749 (28.3)
Brian Matusz	0.2408	0.1105 (32.8)	0.1116 (34.3)
J.A. Happ	0.1332	0.0924 (31.0)	0.1100 (23.8)
James Shields	0.0800	0.1159 (31.5)	0.1146 (23.1)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.1192	0.0911 (26.1)	0.0811 (40.3)
Doug Fister	0.0777	0.1082 (23.5)	0.1187 (26.3)
Bronson Arroyo	0.1310	0.1073 (23.4)	0.1110 (26.4)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brian Duensing	0.0895	0.1322	33.0
2	Charlie Morton	0.1362	0.0949	28.9
3	Josh Beckett	0.1177	0.0808	25.5
4	Justin Verlander	0.0983	0.0691	24.7
5	Johnny Cueto	0.1060	0.0634	24.6
6	Jered Weaver	0.0961	0.0680	22.6
7	Ian Kennedy	0.1071	0.0789	22.1
8	Kyle Lohse	0.1235	0.0916	21.9
9	Matt Harrison	0.1223	0.0907	21.6
10	Justin Masterson	0.1120	0.0848	21.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Max Scherzer	0.0907	0.1152	29.6
2	Edinson Volquez	0.0938	0.1411	28.4
3	Philip Humber	0.1512	0.1006	26.8
4	Ricky Nolasco	0.1010	0.1201	26.7
5	Chad Billingsley	0.0868	0.1062	25.1
6	Carlos Zambrano	0.0945	0.1230	25.0
7	Colby Lewis	0.0989	0.1168	24.2
8	A.J. Burnett	0.1136	0.1302	23.0
9	Francisco Liriano	0.1014	0.1286	22.5
10	Brandon Morrow	0.1032	0.1210	22.2

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Alexi Ogando	0.4194	0.1034 (174.2)	0.0702 (238.5)
Mike Pelfrey	0.2059	0.3000 (136.4)	0.3750 (149.7)
Matt Harrison	0.4516	0.1563 (178.2)	0.1724 (211.7)
Bruce Chen	0.4800	0.2105 (134.1)	0.2400 (153.7)
Iván Nova	0.5714	0.1111 (278.7)	0.2500 (222.8)
Clayton Kershaw	0.6364	0.2381 (304.4)	0.4242 (188.9)
Justin Verlander	0.7059	0.3590 (273.7)	0.5625 (134.1)
Gio González	0.5000	0.2619 (150.0)	0.3235 (148.2)
Ian Kennedy	0.6364	0.1750 (357.2)	0.3478 (255.2)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Derek Holland	0.1724	0.5000	221.8
2	C.J. Wilson	0.1786	0.4706	208.2
3	Daniel Hudson	0.2258	0.4848	179.2
4	Aaron Harang	0.1935	0.5000	174.0
5	Jered Weaver	0.3000	0.5455	167.6
6	Jeremy Hellickson	0.1739	0.4483	162.4
7	Zack Greinke	0.2821	0.5714	160.8
8	Dillon Gee	0.1429	0.4333	159.6
9	Kyle Lohse	0.2000	0.4667	156.7
10	Justin Masterson	0.1364	0.3529	138.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ryan Vogelsong	0.1000	0.4333	246.9
2	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.5294	0.3125	182.4
3	Brett Myers	0.3793	0.2059	163.6
4	Mat Latos	0.4783	0.2903	154.1
5	Carl Pavano	0.4231	0.2727	148.3
6	Aníbal Sánchez	0.4231	0.2500	147.8
7	Phil Coke	0.3667	0.0625	146.5
8	Bronson Arroyo	0.4375	0.2813	137.8
9	Ricky Nolasco	0.4516	0.3030	136.8
10	R.A. Dickey	0.3929	0.2424	136.1

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Hiroki Kuroda	0.5000	0.2703 (134.9)	0.2857 (180.8)
Félix Hernández	0.4242	0.2250 (125.8)	0.2121 (205.9)
Jeff Francis	0.5161	0.2258 (177.9)	0.2632 (204.3)
Tim Lincecum	0.4242	0.2105 (130.5)	0.1875 (214.4)
Brian Duensing	0.4375	0.0930 (196.1)	0.1667 (193.6)
Justin Verlander	0.1471	0.2308 (147.7)	0.2813 (128.6)
J.A. Happ	0.5357	0.1290 (235.9)	0.2414 (206.5)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brett Cecil	0.1795	0.5500	160.5
2	Ian Kennedy	0.2250	0.1212	155.3
3	Daniel Hudson	0.1290	0.3636	152.8
4	Guillermo Moscoso	0.0769	0.4348	152.1
5	Jeremy Hellickson	0.0870	0.3448	146.4
6	Derek Lowe	0.2632	0.5000	139.5
7	David Price	0.1707	0.3824	131.2
8	Derek Holland	0.2414	0.1563	129.7
9	R.A. Dickey	0.1795	0.3939	127.7
10	Dustin Moseley	0.1786	0.5000	127.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jordan Zimmermann	0.1579	0.4231	176.5
2	Jhoulys Chacín	0.2424	0.4516	174.2
3	Alexi Ogando	0.0175	0.2581	167.7
4	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.2059	0.4063	165.9
5	Tim Stauffer	0.1875	0.3871	156.2
6	Mat Latos	0.2609	0.4516	153.6
7	Paul Maholm	0.3226	0.5385	149.3
8	Daniel McCutchen	0.4242	0.0411	138.9
9	Alfredo Simon	0.1154	0.3913	138.4
10	Dillon Gee	0.3913	0.2000	134.0

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Sergio Santos	0.4762	0.0294 (122.1)	0.0000 (116.7)
Jose Valverde	0.6533	0.3778 (89.8)	0.0000 (188.4)
J.J. Putz	0.7500	0.1000 (154.1)	0.0000 (165.5)
Jordan Walden	0.5161	0.0556 (122.3)	0.0000 (123.6)
John Axford	0.6216	0.2941 (106.9)	0.0000 (181.2)
Juan Carlos Oviedo	0.5294	0.2941 (69.2)	0.0000 (134.5)
Drew Storen	0.5890	0.0857 (159.5)	0.0000 (170.1)
Chris Perez	0.5625	0.1875 (98.7)	0.0000 (132.7)
Ryan Madson	0.5161	0.0889 (110.7)	0.0000 (120.2)
Heath Bell	0.6719	0.4400 (65.2)	0.0000 (165.0)
Craig Kimbrel	0.5823	0.0500 (169.9)	0.0000 (169.8)
Joel Hanrahan	0.5714	0.0784 (141.4)	0.0000 (149.0)
Brandon League	0.5692	0.0577 (133.6)	0.0000 (135.4)
Carlos Marmol	0.4533	0.2632 (69.7)	0.0000 (139.2)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	C.J. Wilson	0.1429	0.0000	109.7
2	Alfredo Simon	0.2258	0.0000	101.2
3	Fernando Salas	0.0455	0.3529	97.5
4	Kyle Farnsworth	0.0227	0.3968	91.7
5	Javy Guerra	0.0275	0.4468	86.2
6	Mark Melancon	0.0455	0.2817	80.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mariano Rivera	0.0000	0.6875	153.8
2	Brian Wilson	0.0000	0.6316	146.8
3	Francisco Cordero	0.0000	0.5441	141.6
4	Neftalí Feliz	0.0000	0.5000	119.1
5	Jonathan Papelbon	0.0000	0.4921	118.5
6	Joakim Soria	0.0000	0.4667	112.4

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
Kerry Wood	0.3818	0.1026 (71.3)	0.0000 (74.6)
Vinnie Pestano	0.3433	0.0769 (76.3)	0.0000 (73.6)
David Hernandez	0.3108	0.0556 (85.6)	0.0000 (76.2)
Rafael Soriano	0.5476	0.0625 (86.0)	0.0000 (81.8)
Daniel Bard	0.4857	0.3000 (64.7)	0.0000 (125.8)
Greg Holland	0.3913	0.0588 (86.5)	0.0000 (79.8)
Tyler Clippard	0.5278	0.2000 (120.7)	0.0000 (157.6)
Jonny Venters	0.4118	0.2391 (75.5)	0.0000 (129.5)
David Robertson	0.4857	0.1556 (100.4)	0.0000 (118.8)
Eric O'Flaherty	0.4103	0.1522 (89.4)	0.0000 (108.8)
Sean Marshall	0.4359	0.2000 (84.4)	0.0000 (118.8)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	C.J. Wilson	0.1250	0.0000	78.7
2	Francisco Rodríguez	0.0217	0.2329	76.8
3	Kyle McClellan	0.2500	0.0930	71.6
4	Brian Duensing	0.1395	0.0000	71.5
5	Jeremy Hellickson	0.1304	0.0000	70.8
6	Alexi Ogando	0.1379	0.0000	68.6
7	Koji Uehara	0.1034	0.3385	66.6
8	Alfredo Aceves	0.1000	0.2000	65.9
9	Glen Perkins	0.0455	0.2615	64.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Adams	0.0000	0.4267	104.6
2	Joaquín Benoit	0.0000	0.4394	94.1
3	Grant Balfour	0.0000	0.4194	89.7
4	Jose Veras	0.0000	0.3418	89.3
5	Scott Downs	0.0000	0.4333	83.8
6	Jesse Crain	0.0000	0.3582	82.9
7	Jim Johnson	0.0000	0.2609	77.6
8	Tony Sipp	0.0000	0.3478	75.0
9	Chad Qualls	0.0000	0.2857	72.5

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
John Lackey	6.4125	4.1334 (1782.3)	4.1379 (2078.0)
Ryan Dempster	4.8040	3.7480 (1035.8)	3.7540 (1385.0)
Brian Matusz	10.6913	4.3021 (1594.7)	4.3775 (1674.8)
J.A. Happ	5.3539	3.5200 (1363.6)	4.2950 (1103.6)
James Shields	2.8155	4.4852 (1511.3)	4.3811 (1017.3)
Ubaldo Jiménez	4.6832	3.4171 (1139.1)	3.0585 (1764.7)
Doug Fister	2.8290	4.1230 (1027.6)	4.6362 (1124.4)
Bronson Arroyo	5.0653	4.0428 (976.6)	4.2090 (1178.6)

Individual Misses for ERA

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brian Duensing	3.3853	5.2330	1398.8
2	Charlie Morton	5.4918	3.8272	1188.0
3	Josh Beckett	4.5562	2.8912	1185.2
4	Justin Verlander	3.6949	2.4024	1136.4
5	Kyle Lohse	4.8964	3.3929	1072.4
6	Matt Harrison	4.8706	3.3932	1048.1
7	Johnny Cueto	4.0862	2.3077	1046.7
8	Ian Kennedy	4.1013	2.8784	992.9
9	Justin Masterson	4.4164	3.2083	988.3
10	Jered Weaver	3.5851	2.4059	981.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ryan Vogelsong	6.1338	2.7050	2185.8
2	Philip Humber	6.3984	3.7546	1434.3
3	Ricky Nolasco	3.7759	4.6748	1266.1
4	Edinson Volquez	3.6565	5.7147	1261.8
5	Max Scherzer	3.4412	4.4308	1259.3
6	Félix Hernández	2.7458	3.4665	1198.1
7	Chad Billingsley	3.2996	4.2128	1189.9
8	Esmil Rogers	4.6901	7.0482	1163.6
9	Carlos Zambrano	3.7062	4.8192	1036.7
10	Colby Lewis	3.7089	4.4027	1020.1

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player	Actual	Marcel	ZiPS
John Lackey	1.6187	1.3505 (216.7)	1.3246 (299.4)
Jake Westbrook	1.5327	1.3405 (174.4)	1.3398 (244.1)
Brian Matusz	2.1141	1.3639 (189.5)	1.3781 (207.0)
Trevor Cahill	1.4254	1.2658 (164.9)	1.3097 (202.2)
Joel Pineiro	1.5103	1.2605 (172.4)	1.3082 (196.1)
Esmil Rogers	1.8916	1.4870 (172.9)	1.4789 (210.7)
Doug Fister	1.0632	1.3024 (188.8)	1.3844 (185.9)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	James Shields	1.3582	1.0428	284.7
2	Justin Verlander	1.2316	0.9203	279.0
3	Tyler Chatwood	1.3279	1.6690	230.7
4	Clayton Kershaw	1.2534	0.9771	230.6
5	Josh Beckett	1.3384	1.0259	221.8
6	Kyle Lohse	1.4767	1.1681	221.0
7	Ricky Romero	1.3730	1.1378	194.3
8	Cole Hamels	1.2284	0.9861	186.1
9	Brian Duensing	1.2844	1.5155	180.9
10	Mike Leake	1.4462	1.1750	171.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ryan Vogelsong	1.9455	1.2523	439.5
2	Ricky Nolasco	1.1737	1.3981	296.8
3	Philip Humber	1.7188	1.1779	292.1
4	Chad Billingsley	1.2542	1.4521	254.2
5	Josh Collmenter	1.5812	1.0691	250.4
6	Ubaldo Jiménez	1.2324	1.4018	228.6
7	Brad Penny	1.4002	1.5633	218.3
8	Ryan Dempster	1.3102	1.4481	217.3
9	Guillermo Moscoso	1.5993	1.0938	208.7
10	Nick Blackburn	1.4033	1.5978	203.1