2010 Projection Evaluation

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jacoby Ellsbury 84
615
(531.0)
630
(546.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 1 675 674.0
2 Jason Heyward 1 623 622.0
3 Ike Davis 1 601 600.0
4 Brennan Boesch 1 512 511.0
5 Starlin Castro 1 506 505.0
6 Mike Jacobs 489 28 461.0
7 Jose Tabata 1 441 440.0
8 Willy Taveras 472 37 435.0
9 Mark DeRosa 537 104 433.0
10 Gaby Sanchez 215 643 428.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kila Ka'aihue 968 206 762.0
2 Chris Carter 660 78 582.0
3 Mark Trumbo 592 16 576.0
4 Andrew Romine 582 12 570.0
5 Eric Sogard 573 9 564.0
6 Pedro Ciriaco 550 6 544.0
7 Mat Gamel 552 17 535.0
8 Mike Carp 576 41 535.0
9 Brandon Hicks 540 6 534.0
10 Juan Francisco 589 59 530.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Paul Konerko 0.4201
0.3580
(46.9)
0.3611
(44.6)
Joey Votto 0.4411
0.3921
(39.7)
0.3832
(45.1)
Josh Hamilton 0.4468
0.3650
(53.7)
0.3655
(53.1)
Robinson Canó 0.3973
0.3523
(39.9)
0.3538
(38.4)
Adrian Beltré 0.3957
0.3305
(49.7)
0.3428
(41.4)
José Bautista 0.4228
0.3271
(73.7)
0.3218
(76.9)
Aubrey Huff 0.3889
0.3432
(38.8)
0.3439
(37.9)
Carlos González 0.4167
0.3312
(62.2)
0.3497
(50.1)
Miguel Cabrera 0.4445
0.3939
(40.8)
0.3989
(37.1)
Pablo Sandoval 0.3231
0.3855
(30.9)
0.3870
(32.2)
Vernon Wells 0.3661
0.3276
(32.8)
0.3291
(31.4)
Carlos Lee 0.3102
0.3710
(31.4)
0.3784
(36.7)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Heyward 0.3267 0.3783 39.8
2 Colby Rasmus 0.3181 0.3730 35.9
3 Kelly Johnson 0.3386 0.3772 34.1
4 Justin Morneau 0.3689 0.4530 33.5
5 Buster Posey 0.3162 0.3752 31.6
6 Carlos Ruiz 0.3202 0.3784 30.5
7 Ben Zobrist 0.3718 0.3143 29.6
8 Troy Tulowitzki 0.3647 0.4078 29.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jim Thome 0.3433 0.4418 37.5
2 Austin Jackson 0.2883 0.3296 35.8
3 Brandon Wood 0.3188 0.1674 34.0
4 Ike Davis 0.3075 0.3497 32.4
5 Alex Gonzalez 0.2823 0.3206 32.0
6 Drew Stubbs 0.2950 0.3375 31.6
7 Wilson Betemit 0.3016 0.3879 30.9
8 Andres Torres 0.3157 0.3564 29.9

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
David Ortiz 0.2393
0.1793
(31.9)
0.1928
(26.7)
Ryan Braun 0.1533
0.1879
(28.7)
0.1947
(30.0)
Colby Rasmus 0.2772
0.1814
(47.3)
0.1948
(42.7)
Adam Lind 0.2349
0.1757
(31.8)
0.1862
(28.3)
Adam LaRoche 0.2797
0.2138
(36.1)
0.2253
(31.9)
Delmon Young 0.1321
0.1888
(39.2)
0.1953
(40.2)
David Wright 0.2403
0.1843
(32.7)
0.1988
(26.2)
Michael Cuddyer 0.1378
0.1727
(28.5)
0.1795
(29.8)
Denard Span 0.1050
0.1441
(32.7)
0.1558
(37.6)
Jonny Gomes 0.2154
0.2567
(27.7)
0.2747
(35.3)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1797 0.3106 49.0
2 Pedro Alvarez 0.1797 0.3083 46.8
3 Austin Jackson 0.1797 0.2519 43.8
4 Drew Stubbs 0.2079 0.2882 42.6
5 John Jaso 0.1773 0.0965 35.6
6 Adam Dunn 0.2483 0.3071 33.4
7 Austin Kearns 0.1824 0.2516 28.6
8 Buster Posey 0.1806 0.1242 28.2
9 Vladimir Guerrero 0.1297 0.0933 28.0
10 Andrew McCutchen 0.1717 0.1363 27.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Bautista 0.2295 0.1698 42.4
2 Chase Headley 0.2646 0.2062 41.0
3 Ike Davis 0.2945 0.2296 40.4
4 Todd Helton 0.1231 0.1903 30.6
5 Kelly Johnson 0.1732 0.2206 30.1
6 Jhonny Peralta 0.2138 0.1675 30.0
7 Mark Reynolds 0.3043 0.3540 28.2
8 Matt Holliday 0.1758 0.1378 27.3
9 Adrián González 0.2009 0.1645 26.9
10 Hideki Matsui 0.1267 0.1756 25.9

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Marco Scutaro 0.0763
0.1088
(21.6)
0.1126
(25.0)
Joey Votto 0.1404
0.1080
(22.0)
0.1087
(20.8)
Nick Swisher 0.0913
0.1426
(31.6)
0.1412
(31.5)
Daric Barton 0.1603
0.1176
(30.4)
0.1210
(27.2)
Robinson Canó 0.0819
0.0530
(21.2)
0.0477
(24.0)
Brian McCann 0.1307
0.0867
(25.8)
0.0883
(24.2)
José Bautista 0.1464
0.1106
(25.5)
0.1179
(19.7)
Aubrey Huff 0.1243
0.0827
(28.8)
0.0806
(29.4)
Jason Heyward 0.1461
0.0868
(37.9)
0.0907
(34.7)
José Reyes 0.0514
0.0934
(24.4)
0.0957
(26.5)
Mark Reynolds 0.1393
0.1035
(22.2)
0.1070
(19.4)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1373
0.0971
(27.1)
0.0996
(24.7)
Adam Dunn 0.1188
0.1628
(27.5)
0.1728
(34.8)
Brett Gardner 0.1388
0.0833
(32.5)
0.0974
(23.7)
John Jaso 0.1460
0.0837
(25.8)
0.0909
(22.4)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Colby Rasmus 0.0759 0.1180 23.3
2 Prince Fielder 0.1313 0.1597 21.4
3 Julio Borbon 0.0872 0.0406 21.1
4 Ike Davis 0.0868 0.1198 20.8
5 Carlos Santana 0.0868 0.1927 20.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Drew 0.1553 0.1099 24.6
2 Adam Jones 0.0703 0.0370 20.4
3 Geovany Soto 0.1091 0.1602 19.9
4 Ryan Howard 0.1265 0.0952 19.2
5 Adam LaRoche 0.1092 0.0780 19.0

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Prince Fielder 0.0294
0.0156
(10.2)
0.0160
(9.9)
Brett Carroll 0.0778
0.0142
(5.8)
0.0149
(5.7)
Daniel Nava 0.0426
0.0085
(6.5)
0.0085
(6.5)
Travis Hafner 0.0260
0.0122
(6.6)
0.0118
(6.8)
Marlon Byrd 0.0270
0.0148
(7.9)
0.0169
(6.6)
Ryan Raburn 0.0195
0.0055
(5.9)
0.0052
(6.1)
Juan Pierre 0.0286
0.0112
(13.1)
0.0128
(12.0)
Alex Rodriguez 0.0050
0.0193
(8.2)
0.0215
(9.5)
Aubrey Huff 0.0135
0.0054
(5.7)
0.0051
(5.9)
Josh Wilson 0.0309
0.0131
(7.1)
0.0183
(5.1)
Jason Kendall 0.0122
0.0235
(5.3)
0.0256
(6.3)
Dan Uggla 0.0030
0.0135
(6.8)
0.0129
(6.4)
Lastings Milledge 0.0073
0.0200
(5.0)
0.0209
(5.4)
Brandon Inge 0.0086
0.0199
(6.3)
0.0232
(8.1)
Rod Barajas 0.0236
0.0087
(5.2)
0.0086
(5.3)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.0206 0.0332 9.8
2 Rubén Tejada 0.0085 0.0314 5.9
3 Fred Lewis 0.0072 0.0187 5.8
4 Brett Wallace 0.0085 0.0440 5.7
5 José Bautista 0.0068 0.0146 5.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt LaPorta 0.0213 0.0024 7.8
2 Jason Heyward 0.0060 0.0161 6.6
3 Daric Barton 0.0134 0.0044 5.9
4 Mark Reynolds 0.0067 0.0151 5.3
5 Kevin Kouzmanoff 0.0193 0.0102 5.0

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Paul Konerko 0.0878
0.0599
(19.3)
0.0562
(21.1)
Jason Bay 0.0230
0.0693
(17.6)
0.0911
(26.6)
Ben Zobrist 0.0221
0.0577
(21.7)
0.0475
(15.4)
Joey Votto 0.0871
0.0582
(20.4)
0.0588
(19.5)
Colby Rasmus 0.0714
0.0401
(18.1)
0.0391
(18.3)
Jim Thome 0.1276
0.0870
(14.7)
0.0760
(18.2)
Corey Hart 0.0733
0.0427
(20.4)
0.0455
(18.2)
José Bautista 0.1182
0.0425
(53.4)
0.0459
(50.6)
Carlos González 0.0741
0.0393
(23.7)
0.0442
(20.2)
Ryan Howard 0.0783
0.1040
(14.4)
0.1183
(23.6)
Vernon Wells 0.0609
0.0346
(18.6)
0.0392
(15.2)
Tyler Colvin 0.0763
0.0323
(18.4)
0.0303
(18.9)
Kelly Johnson 0.0588
0.0319
(19.7)
0.0400
(13.9)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0367 0.0928 23.2
2 Austin Jackson 0.0367 0.0088 17.1
3 Mark Reynolds 0.0865 0.1092 15.1
4 David Wright 0.0471 0.0662 14.5
5 Pedro Alvarez 0.0367 0.0696 13.7
6 Starlin Castro 0.0367 0.0075 13.5
7 Matt Kemp 0.0461 0.0635 13.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Stubbs 0.0256 0.0620 22.3
2 Raul Ibanez 0.0670 0.0348 19.3
3 Evan Longoria 0.0789 0.0478 19.3
4 Jonny Gomes 0.0791 0.0453 18.2
5 Ryan Braun 0.0752 0.0483 17.2
6 Michael Cuddyer 0.0511 0.0269 15.1
7 Ryan Ludwick 0.0734 0.0452 14.6

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Paul Konerko 0.3259
0.2706
(38.5)
0.2876
(30.5)
Nick Swisher 0.3325
0.2751
(40.0)
0.2857
(36.0)
Colby Rasmus 0.3512
0.2836
(39.1)
0.3035
(30.8)
Matt Kemp 0.2954
0.3502
(32.8)
0.3607
(36.9)
Carlos Ruiz 0.3355
0.2635
(33.6)
0.2692
(33.0)
Austin Kearns 0.3441
0.2807
(31.8)
0.2898
(29.6)
Justin Morneau 0.3853
0.2893
(35.4)
0.2962
(34.5)
Carlos González 0.3835
0.3160
(46.6)
0.3125
(51.5)
Mark Reynolds 0.2567
0.3312
(41.0)
0.3302
(37.8)
Dan Uggla 0.3301
0.2906
(30.5)
0.2917
(32.6)
Jay Bruce 0.3343
0.2660
(42.4)
0.2831
(35.0)
Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.3318
0.2844
(40.1)
0.2918
(37.7)
Austin Jackson 0.3933
0.2971
(68.8)
0.3148
(59.8)
Josh Hamilton 0.3889
0.3192
(43.0)
0.3212
(44.3)
Aaron Hill 0.1952
0.2980
(56.3)
0.2951
(52.1)
Carlos Pena 0.2219
0.2837
(32.7)
0.2818
(29.1)
Chris Johnson 0.3868
0.2848
(39.0)
0.3028
(34.0)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jack Cust 0.3165 0.3868 32.3
2 Carlos Lee 0.2928 0.2376 32.1
3 Adrian Beltré 0.2888 0.3313 30.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Buck 0.2704 0.3345 32.4
2 Akinori Iwamura 0.3455 0.2065 29.5
3 Denard Span 0.3408 0.2890 29.5

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Nick Swisher 0.2432
0.1893
(35.7)
0.1971
(33.1)
Matt Kemp 0.2203
0.2681
(30.3)
0.2670
(27.1)
José Bautista 0.1390
0.2014
(41.0)
0.1959
(34.7)
Bobby Abreu 0.1972
0.2450
(30.3)
0.2438
(27.0)
Carlos González 0.2824
0.2230
(39.2)
0.2201
(43.4)
Delmon Young 0.2138
0.2614
(27.7)
0.2625
(26.1)
Dan Uggla 0.2549
0.1966
(40.9)
0.2000
(41.1)
Omar Infante 0.3071
0.2444
(33.0)
0.2489
(32.5)
Jay Bruce 0.2550
0.1987
(33.6)
0.2078
(30.5)
Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.2500
0.1991
(40.2)
0.2060
(37.7)
Austin Jackson 0.2956
0.2225
(50.9)
0.2421
(40.1)
John Buck 0.2465
0.1864
(27.3)
0.1888
(27.9)
Josh Hamilton 0.2803
0.2345
(27.5)
0.2351
(29.3)
Aaron Hill 0.1429
0.2190
(42.7)
0.2178
(40.0)
B.J. Upton 0.1866
0.2391
(30.6)
0.2408
(29.4)
Scott Podsednik 0.2854
0.2422
(27.1)
0.2459
(27.1)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Paul Konerko 0.1989 0.2494 33.3
2 Elvis Andrus 0.2308 0.2711 28.8
3 Mark Reynolds 0.2334 0.1839 28.1
4 Mark Ellis 0.2030 0.2559 27.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 0.1738 0.2163 32.3
2 Denard Span 0.2780 0.2287 30.5
3 Adrián González 0.2114 0.2472 29.0
4 Matt Diaz 0.2946 0.1705 28.8

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jim Edmonds 0.1307
0.0654
(18.4)
0.0724
(16.7)
Josh Hamilton 0.1010
0.0749
(16.3)
0.0762
(15.9)
Colby Rasmus 0.0936
0.0627
(17.8)
0.0678
(15.4)
Jerry Hairston 0.0346
0.0725
(16.9)
0.0700
(15.4)
Andres Torres 0.1168
0.0645
(31.2)
0.0602
(33.9)
Bobby Abreu 0.0962
0.0743
(16.3)
0.0771
(14.7)
Jayson Werth 0.1183
0.0634
(37.3)
0.0671
(35.2)
Alfonso Soriano 0.1133
0.0804
(19.4)
0.0821
(18.7)
Delmon Young 0.0964
0.0625
(22.3)
0.0700
(18.0)
Ronny Cedeno 0.0799
0.0507
(15.9)
0.0485
(17.2)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1064
0.0767
(20.8)
0.0811
(18.3)
Adam Dunn 0.1108
0.0799
(21.6)
0.0820
(20.5)
Vernon Wells 0.0921
0.0673
(17.5)
0.0695
(16.4)
Scott Podsednik 0.0300
0.0599
(16.3)
0.0656
(19.4)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrian Beltré 0.0736 0.1008 19.0
2 Joe Mauer 0.0686 0.0947 16.7
3 James Loney 0.0613 0.0842 16.4
4 Travis Hafner 0.0674 0.0993 15.8
5 B.J. Upton 0.0842 0.1058 14.6
6 Omar Infante 0.0677 0.0369 14.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Gonzalez 0.0590 0.0911 22.4
2 Nelson Cruz 0.0693 0.1023 16.0
3 Carlos Pena 0.0893 0.0596 15.6
4 David Ortiz 0.0831 0.1043 14.7
5 Kurt Suzuki 0.0705 0.0412 14.3
6 Brandon Wood 0.0741 0.0125 14.2

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Elvis Andrus 0.0059
0.0165
(6.5)
0.0173
(7.1)
Jason Bay 0.0235
0.0086
(6.4)
0.0084
(6.5)
Eric Patterson 0.0413
0.0055
(7.5)
0.0121
(6.2)
Logan Morrison 0.0366
0.0069
(8.8)
0.0063
(9.0)
Ryan Braun 0.0020
0.0142
(7.7)
0.0135
(7.2)
Evan Longoria 0.0114
0.0026
(6.4)
0.0025
(6.5)
Cliff Pennington 0.0190
0.0086
(6.5)
0.0088
(6.4)
Justin Upton 0.0090
0.0204
(6.0)
0.0199
(5.7)
Alcides Escobar 0.0228
0.0098
(7.7)
0.0103
(7.4)
Dexter Fowler 0.0417
0.0222
(10.3)
0.0193
(11.8)
Will Venable 0.0273
0.0121
(7.2)
0.0107
(7.8)
Chris Young 0.0000
0.0120
(7.3)
0.0126
(7.7)
Rafael Furcal 0.0219
0.0096
(5.7)
0.0103
(5.4)
Austin Jackson 0.0222
0.0069
(10.9)
0.0097
(9.1)
Melvin Mora 0.0194
0.0027
(6.2)
0.0030
(6.1)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.0190 0.0091 6.8
2 Wes Helms 0.0000 0.0226 6.7
3 Carl Crawford 0.0183 0.0265 6.0
4 Ben Zobrist 0.0146 0.0045 6.0
5 Tyler Colvin 0.0067 0.0207 5.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ángel Pagán 0.0293 0.0146 8.7
2 Miguel Olivo 0.0082 0.0224 6.5
3 Drew Stubbs 0.0079 0.0180 6.5
4 Kevin Youkilis 0.0055 0.0178 5.8
5 Andres Torres 0.0321 0.0217 5.4

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Paul Konerko 0.1410
0.1175
(19.9)
0.1135
(23.1)
Carl Crawford 0.1659
0.1404
(22.2)
0.1398
(23.3)
Drew Stubbs 0.1561
0.1287
(20.6)
0.1207
(25.9)
Joey Votto 0.1636
0.1322
(25.5)
0.1324
(26.0)
Aubrey Huff 0.1497
0.1187
(26.0)
0.1201
(25.8)
Carlos González 0.1745
0.1328
(31.6)
0.1341
(31.4)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1713
0.1311
(31.2)
0.1332
(30.5)
Austin Jackson 0.1526
0.1171
(29.3)
0.0978
(43.0)
Josh Hamilton 0.1664
0.1325
(23.9)
0.1323
(24.6)
Chone Figgins 0.0883
0.1473
(35.8)
0.1483
(35.8)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Bautista 0.1219 0.1596 31.2
2 Martín Prado 0.1263 0.1536 23.0
3 Adam Lind 0.1336 0.0930 20.0
4 Hunter Pence 0.1193 0.1413 19.7
5 Brett Gardner 0.1444 0.1705 19.3
6 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1352 0.1011 19.1
7 Alex Rodriguez 0.1644 0.1244 19.1
8 Orlando Hudson 0.1173 0.1431 18.9
9 Howie Kendrick 0.1383 0.1018 18.8
10 Chris Young 0.1214 0.1416 18.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nyjer Morgan 0.1692 0.1040 32.5
2 Ike Davis 0.0880 0.1215 25.5
3 Robinson Canó 0.1262 0.1480 21.4
4 Lance Berkman 0.1517 0.0998 20.6
5 Alex Rios 0.1198 0.1442 20.6
6 Adam Jones 0.1640 0.1224 20.3
7 Tyler Colvin 0.1101 0.1519 20.1
8 Nate McLouth 0.1825 0.1042 20.0
9 Michael Saunders 0.1586 0.0887 19.9
10 Kevin Youkilis 0.1412 0.1770 19.5

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Prince Fielder 0.1162
0.1672
(31.4)
0.2067
(56.3)
Paul Konerko 0.1759
0.1320
(32.1)
0.1294
(36.7)
José Bautista 0.1816
0.1106
(53.2)
0.1263
(45.7)
Bengie Molina 0.0865
0.1522
(24.4)
0.1770
(32.8)
Brandon Phillips 0.0859
0.1372
(30.5)
0.1452
(32.8)
Delmon Young 0.1827
0.1266
(38.7)
0.1356
(36.0)
Carlos González 0.1840
0.0952
(60.9)
0.1210
(47.4)
Nick Markakis 0.0846
0.1374
(32.5)
0.1474
(36.3)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1944
0.1618
(25.7)
0.1611
(29.2)
Troy Tulowitzki 0.1796
0.1343
(27.7)
0.1331
(30.7)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Corey Hart 0.1248 0.1661 29.7
2 Austin Jackson 0.1116 0.0607 29.6
3 Adrian Beltré 0.1207 0.1591 29.1
4 Erick Aybar 0.1048 0.0492 28.6
5 Robinson Canó 0.1258 0.1566 26.3
6 Chris Young 0.1063 0.1370 25.1
7 Vladimir Guerrero 0.1473 0.1788 24.8
8 Pedro Alvarez 0.1116 0.1658 23.6
9 Neil Walker 0.0978 0.1407 23.4
10 Joey Votto 0.1453 0.1744 23.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Stubbs 0.0777 0.1321 38.5
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.1705 0.1023 34.9
3 Alex Gonzalez 0.0973 0.1375 33.2
4 Alex Rodriguez 0.1667 0.2101 32.7
5 Ian Desmond 0.0702 0.1132 31.3
6 Scott Rolen 0.1121 0.1546 29.0
7 Yuniesky Betancourt 0.0955 0.1327 28.7
8 Ryan Ludwick 0.1873 0.1248 28.1
9 Dan Uggla 0.1262 0.1558 27.8
10 Orlando Hudson 0.1272 0.0662 27.6

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Cliff Pennington 0.2071
0.0909
(68.0)
0.1078
(54.6)
Jarrod Dyson 0.8182
0.0649
(49.1)
0.0649
(48.7)
Andres Torres 0.2047
0.1045
(58.2)
0.1011
(56.4)
Coco Crisp 0.3765
0.1685
(68.8)
0.1935
(58.5)
Will Venable 0.2566
0.0645
(86.3)
0.0652
(83.1)
Franklin Gutierrez 0.1667
0.0935
(47.2)
0.0625
(62.6)
Brandon Phillips 0.0941
0.1583
(42.8)
0.1678
(53.8)
Ángel Pagán 0.2256
0.1250
(64.9)
0.1500
(44.9)
Rafael Furcal 0.1864
0.0927
(40.9)
0.0769
(44.9)
Alex Rios 0.2222
0.1460
(48.2)
0.1477
(43.2)
B.J. Upton 0.3088
0.2025
(66.0)
0.2096
(57.7)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 0.0649 0.1467 56.6
2 Peter Bourjos 0.0649 0.3448 54.4
3 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.1250 0.0521 53.5
4 Corey Hart 0.1327 0.0500 49.6
5 Adrian Beltré 0.0877 0.0129 46.7
6 Drew Stubbs 0.1316 0.2083 45.9
7 Eric Young Jr. 0.1000 0.3208 42.1
8 Torii Hunter 0.1190 0.0529 41.5
9 Jose Tabata 0.0649 0.1557 40.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 0.0667 0.1687 64.7
2 José Reyes 0.3028 0.2113 58.0
3 Julio Borbon 0.2398 0.1210 57.8
4 Jayson Nix 0.1429 0.0139 48.5
5 Rajai Davis 0.2617 0.3497 46.8
6 Alcides Escobar 0.1534 0.0769 44.7
7 Elvis Andrus 0.2138 0.1546 43.0
8 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1250 0.1883 43.0
9 Alex Rodriguez 0.0943 0.0282 42.1

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Paul Konerko 0.3120
0.2614
(37.8)
0.2685
(31.5)
Nick Swisher 0.2880
0.2452
(33.1)
0.2427
(32.9)
Nelson Cruz 0.3183
0.2637
(28.5)
0.2697
(24.5)
Matt Kemp 0.2492
0.2962
(25.2)
0.3002
(29.7)
Carlos Ruiz 0.3019
0.2480
(27.4)
0.2515
(24.6)
Adrian Beltré 0.3209
0.2670
(40.5)
0.2762
(32.8)
Carlos González 0.3356
0.2659
(50.2)
0.2705
(45.5)
Mark Reynolds 0.1984
0.2562
(28.9)
0.2585
(32.0)
Dan Uggla 0.2869
0.2505
(30.8)
0.2458
(32.1)
Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.2688
0.2448
(25.1)
0.2395
(27.0)
Austin Jackson 0.2929
0.2612
(27.7)
0.2468
(35.5)
Josh Hamilton 0.3591
0.2857
(47.2)
0.2833
(47.0)
Carlos Lee 0.2463
0.2992
(28.3)
0.2976
(29.1)
Aaron Hill 0.2045
0.2807
(38.8)
0.2746
(36.9)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Billy Butler 0.2870 0.3176 27.1
2 Buster Posey 0.2539 0.3054 27.0
3 Carlos Pena 0.2511 0.1963 26.5
4 Derek Jeter 0.3143 0.2700 25.9
5 Jay Bruce 0.2451 0.2809 25.9
6 Justin Morneau 0.2808 0.3446 25.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Buck 0.2208 0.2812 29.2
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.3199 0.2682 27.9
3 José Bautista 0.2271 0.2601 27.0
4 Ike Davis 0.2267 0.2639 26.2
5 Chris Johnson 0.2433 0.3079 25.7
6 Adrián González 0.2677 0.2978 25.4

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Paul Konerko 0.3930
0.3472
(35.2)
0.3528
(30.4)
Joey Votto 0.4244
0.3799
(35.2)
0.3735
(38.2)
Josh Hamilton 0.4105
0.3488
(40.9)
0.3475
(40.6)
Robinson Canó 0.3807
0.3377
(36.8)
0.3354
(37.2)
Carlos Ruiz 0.3995
0.3365
(31.6)
0.3429
(28.0)
José Bautista 0.3777
0.3341
(36.6)
0.3263
(40.6)
Adrian Beltré 0.3651
0.3185
(36.2)
0.3268
(29.7)
Aubrey Huff 0.3847
0.3333
(40.9)
0.3328
(40.1)
Jason Heyward 0.3933
0.3300
(45.6)
0.3448
(35.2)
Carlos González 0.3758
0.3241
(39.2)
0.3371
(29.8)
Miguel Cabrera 0.4198
0.3754
(35.2)
0.3792
(31.5)
Aramis Ramirez 0.2939
0.3698
(33.5)
0.3702
(34.6)
Carlos Lee 0.2912
0.3497
(31.6)
0.3538
(35.4)
Brett Gardner 0.3830
0.3305
(35.5)
0.3295
(35.0)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Daric Barton 0.3446 0.3932 40.1
2 Billy Butler 0.3450 0.3879 35.8
3 Ryan Zimmerman 0.3444 0.3881 32.3
4 Justin Morneau 0.3575 0.4368 31.0
5 Colby Rasmus 0.3156 0.3609 29.5
6 Aaron Hill 0.3299 0.2712 28.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 0.3002 0.3452 35.9
2 Ike Davis 0.3021 0.3511 34.3
3 Brandon Wood 0.3016 0.1745 28.9
4 Wilson Betemit 0.2957 0.3778 28.4
5 Adam Lind 0.3412 0.2871 28.2
6 Jim Thome 0.3388 0.4118 27.6

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Paul Konerko 0.5839
0.4689
(86.3)
0.4649
(83.8)
Joey Votto 0.5996
0.5190
(66.3)
0.5000
(73.5)
Josh Hamilton 0.6332
0.4901
(94.1)
0.4877
(91.0)
Colby Rasmus 0.4978
0.4112
(57.8)
0.4110
(53.7)
Jim Thome 0.6268
0.4922
(53.1)
0.4321
(70.9)
Adrian Beltré 0.5535
0.4354
(89.6)
0.4540
(72.6)
José Bautista 0.6169
0.4110
(155.4)
0.3889
(165.1)
Corey Hart 0.5251
0.4605
(53.0)
0.4531
(52.7)
Carlos González 0.5980
0.4377
(115.7)
0.4590
(97.1)
Miguel Cabrera 0.6223
0.5319
(72.6)
0.5361
(64.8)
Pablo Sandoval 0.4085
0.5181
(54.2)
0.5159
(57.7)
Vernon Wells 0.5153
0.4248
(72.4)
0.4300
(64.0)
Carlos Pena 0.4070
0.5291
(58.5)
0.5239
(60.0)
Buster Posey 0.5049
0.3938
(58.8)
0.3983
(53.3)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ben Zobrist 0.4878 0.3530 74.0
2 Delmon Young 0.4152 0.4930 61.0
3 Robinson Canó 0.4689 0.5335 60.1
4 Troy Tulowitzki 0.4810 0.5681 57.6
5 Kelly Johnson 0.4323 0.4957 57.1
6 Nick Swisher 0.4499 0.5106 52.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Gonzalez 0.3537 0.4471 68.5
2 Drew Stubbs 0.3479 0.4436 63.8
3 Andres Torres 0.3965 0.4793 55.0
4 Carlos Lee 0.5142 0.4165 54.4
5 Casey McGehee 0.3972 0.4639 53.9
6 Giancarlo Stanton 0.3894 0.5070 52.0

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Doug Davis 191
761
(570.0)
797
(606.0)
Mike Leake 604
1
(603.0)
1
(603.0)
Sean West 47
509
(462.0)
666
(619.0)
Jake Westbrook 860
267
(593.0)
231
(629.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Colby Lewis 114 844 730.0
2 Rodrigo Lopez 295 874 579.0
3 Jaime García 134 695 561.0
4 C.J. Wilson 290 850 560.0
5 Ian Kennedy 261 810 549.0
6 Tim Hudson 388 920 532.0
7 Mitch Talbot 168 696 528.0
8 Hisanori Takahashi 1 516 515.0
9 Jason Marquis 791 276 515.0
10 Brett Myers 425 936 511.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kevin Mulvey 714 17 697.0
2 Billy Buckner 766 72 694.0
3 Drew Carpenter 698 14 684.0
4 Matt Maloney 749 86 663.0
5 Evan MacLane 665 4 661.0
6 Josh Banks 671 24 647.0
7 Ian Snell 862 227 635.0
8 Samuel Deduno 633 12 621.0
9 Esmailin Caridad 643 23 620.0
10 Mitch Atkins 664 49 615.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Roy Oswalt 0.2700
0.3140
(32.6)
0.2862
(31.0)
Brett Myers 0.3003
0.3453
(37.4)
0.3151
(33.4)
Rich Harden 0.3724
0.3049
(31.2)
0.2794
(31.0)
Jered Weaver 0.2749
0.3213
(37.4)
0.2942
(36.4)
R.A. Dickey 0.2911
0.3455
(35.1)
0.3189
(34.7)
Javier Vazquez 0.3549
0.3004
(40.7)
0.2689
(44.4)
Josh Beckett 0.3682
0.3075
(38.0)
0.2743
(42.2)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.4065
0.3174
(48.0)
0.2875
(50.0)
A.J. Burnett 0.3601
0.3202
(37.3)
0.2983
(34.0)
James Shields 0.3589
0.3237
(36.2)
0.2824
(50.1)
Ricky Romero 0.3015
0.3449
(33.7)
0.3222
(36.7)
Gio González 0.2930
0.3577
(50.7)
0.3216
(42.1)
Trevor Cahill 0.2783
0.3451
(48.3)
0.3111
(42.0)
Livan Hernandez 0.3114
0.3623
(41.0)
0.3312
(36.5)
Scott Kazmir 0.3680
0.3254
(32.6)
0.2924
(37.3)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Clay Buchholz 0.3341 0.2790 35.5
2 Félix Hernández 0.3035 0.2632 35.1
3 Mat Latos 0.3206 0.2685 35.1
4 Brad Bergesen 0.3202 0.3579 31.9
5 Francisco Liriano 0.3435 0.2991 31.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Haren 0.2572 0.3201 41.8
2 Zach Duke 0.3036 0.3788 39.7
3 David Price 0.3062 0.2860 35.4
4 Paul Maholm 0.2921 0.3533 33.9
5 Scott Feldman 0.2956 0.3674 32.6

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Roy Oswalt 0.2306
0.1826
(36.9)
0.1786
(33.9)
Rich Harden 0.1744
0.2586
(37.9)
0.2687
(45.4)
Mat Latos 0.2527
0.1799
(51.5)
0.1616
(59.6)
Jered Weaver 0.2575
0.1910
(56.5)
0.1827
(57.3)
Jon Lester 0.2613
0.2157
(35.9)
0.2023
(40.9)
Randy Wolf 0.1517
0.1883
(38.0)
0.1828
(39.8)
Brandon Morrow 0.2830
0.2087
(44.2)
0.2126
(37.1)
Javier Vazquez 0.1772
0.2371
(43.7)
0.2264
(41.5)
Colby Lewis 0.2322
0.1754
(44.6)
0.1686
(44.0)
A.J. Burnett 0.1749
0.2205
(41.1)
0.2072
(36.3)
Scott Kazmir 0.1364
0.2141
(55.7)
0.2158
(62.0)
Carlos Marmol 0.4157
0.2557
(51.8)
0.2978
(35.3)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Francisco Liriano 0.1935 0.2494 41.9
2 Billy Wagner 0.2288 0.3881 41.6
3 Stephen Strasburg 0.1849 0.3358 40.2
4 Carl Pavano 0.1676 0.1291 38.5
5 Joel Hanrahan 0.2128 0.3401 36.3
6 Adam Wainwright 0.1913 0.2341 35.4
7 Mitch Talbot 0.1726 0.1264 34.9
8 Rafael Betancourt 0.2146 0.3589 34.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Johan Santana 0.2374 0.1763 59.3
2 Zack Greinke 0.2433 0.1970 53.1
3 Jhoulys Chacín 0.1352 0.2367 52.5
4 Jonny Venters 0.1209 0.2657 46.7
5 Tommy Hanson 0.2438 0.2047 42.7
6 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1860 0.2394 37.5
7 Matt Belisle 0.1362 0.2493 37.1
8 Sean Marshall 0.1719 0.2932 33.7

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Shaun Marcum 0.0537
0.0814
(22.0)
0.0747
(16.3)
Rich Harden 0.1442
0.1015
(18.4)
0.1007
(18.9)
R.A. Dickey 0.0589
0.0954
(25.9)
0.0951
(25.3)
Cliff Lee 0.0214
0.0539
(27.3)
0.0509
(24.4)
Jon Garland 0.1039
0.0716
(27.1)
0.0642
(33.8)
Javier Vazquez 0.0952
0.0631
(21.9)
0.0575
(26.2)
Tommy Hanson 0.0663
0.0880
(18.3)
0.0937
(22.6)
Wilton Lopez 0.0191
0.0872
(17.8)
0.0850
(17.1)
Aníbal Sánchez 0.0832
0.1059
(19.0)
0.1064
(19.0)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Doug Fister 0.0763 0.0444 22.9
2 Francisco Liriano 0.0993 0.0720 22.0
3 Mat Latos 0.0952 0.0668 21.2
4 Kris Medlen 0.0935 0.0479 19.9
5 Matt Cain 0.0898 0.0681 19.4
6 Jeff Karstens 0.0876 0.0514 18.9
7 Roberto Hernandez 0.1032 0.0818 18.7
8 Roy Halladay 0.0487 0.0302 18.2
9 Dontrelle Willis 0.1204 0.1772 18.0
10 Dallas Braden 0.0782 0.0551 18.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Travis Wood 0.1150 0.0621 21.9
2 Brandon Morrow 0.1388 0.1049 20.9
3 Jon Lester 0.0740 0.0964 19.8
4 Aaron Cook 0.0589 0.0909 18.7
5 Rick Porcello 0.0815 0.0543 18.6
6 Tim Hudson 0.0620 0.0804 17.6
7 Cole Hamels 0.0515 0.0713 17.4
8 CC Sabathia 0.0592 0.0763 17.1
9 Josh Beckett 0.0508 0.0780 16.0
10 John Axford 0.1812 0.1134 16.0

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Rich Harden 0.0209
0.0082
(5.5)
0.0000
(5.6)
Jered Weaver 0.0000
0.0064
(5.7)
0.0000
(7.3)
Phil Hughes 0.0000
0.0113
(8.2)
0.0000
(5.9)
Jonny Venters 0.0229
0.0083
(5.1)
0.0000
(5.2)
Jason Vargas 0.0012
0.0075
(5.0)
0.0000
(5.5)
Tommy Hanson 0.0166
0.0094
(6.2)
0.0000
(7.2)
Jeremy Guthrie 0.0183
0.0092
(8.0)
0.0000
(9.0)
A.J. Burnett 0.0229
0.0114
(9.6)
0.0000
(12.3)
Chad Gaudin 0.0271
0.0107
(4.9)
0.0000
(5.6)
Jason Marquis 0.0290
0.0076
(5.9)
0.0000
(5.8)
Brett Cecil 0.0014
0.0105
(6.6)
0.0000
(4.8)
Scott Kazmir 0.0176
0.0076
(6.8)
0.0000
(6.5)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dave Bush 0.0175 0.0051 9.6
2 Kyle Kendrick 0.0137 0.0039 7.5
3 Brandon Morrow 0.0031 0.0143 7.1
4 Brett Myers 0.0094 0.0032 5.7
5 Jhoulys Chacín 0.0065 0.0154 5.3
6 Justin Germano 0.0085 0.0411 4.8
7 Wade LeBlanc 0.0109 0.0032 4.7
8 Justin Verlander 0.0117 0.0065 4.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0083 0.0050 6.9
2 Mark Buehrle 0.0000 0.0011 6.2
3 Cliff Lee 0.0000 0.0012 5.8
4 Carlos Marmol 0.0000 0.0241 5.3
5 Chris Carpenter 0.0000 0.0134 5.2
6 Carlos Monasterios 0.0000 0.0201 4.8
7 Ramon E Ramirez 0.0083 0.0000 4.6
8 Justin Masterson 0.0000 0.0137 4.6

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jaime García 0.0181
0.0408
(14.6)
0.0369
(12.1)
Brett Myers 0.0291
0.0525
(20.3)
0.0568
(24.6)
Brian Tallet 0.0766
0.0345
(15.6)
0.0307
(16.8)
Doug Fister 0.0221
0.0455
(15.6)
0.0448
(15.4)
Felipe Paulino 0.0143
0.0530
(15.2)
0.0452
(12.1)
Javier Vazquez 0.0653
0.0372
(20.3)
0.0369
(20.3)
Jason Vargas 0.0281
0.0461
(13.2)
0.0452
(12.7)
Gavin Floyd 0.0240
0.0417
(12.8)
0.0448
(15.5)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.0610
0.0342
(14.5)
0.0347
(14.1)
Juan Gutierrez 0.0751
0.0263
(12.5)
0.0287
(11.8)
Chad Gaudin 0.0766
0.0357
(12.5)
0.0357
(12.5)
Gio González 0.0257
0.0486
(18.1)
0.0456
(15.7)
Rodrigo Lopez 0.0529
0.0360
(16.2)
0.0383
(14.0)
James Shields 0.0518
0.0399
(12.2)
0.0382
(13.5)
Francisco Liriano 0.0168
0.0417
(18.7)
0.0391
(16.9)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0377 0.0165 16.4
2 Clay Buchholz 0.0416 0.0173 16.0
3 Chad Billingsley 0.0315 0.0141 12.9
4 Barry Enright 0.0343 0.0604 11.4
5 Chris Carpenter 0.0194 0.0294 11.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.0363 0.0173 14.9
2 Mark Buehrle 0.0400 0.0227 14.3
3 David Price 0.0428 0.0255 13.8
4 Ian Kennedy 0.0308 0.0463 13.7
5 Zach Duke 0.0286 0.0432 11.6

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Roy Oswalt 0.2531
0.2963
(34.6)
0.2956
(40.2)
Yovani Gallardo 0.3236
0.2864
(31.4)
0.2837
(27.6)
Brandon Morrow 0.3425
0.2829
(38.6)
0.2787
(36.6)
Jonathan Sánchez 0.2516
0.2957
(34.3)
0.2931
(38.3)
Kyle Lohse 0.3636
0.2943
(30.7)
0.2907
(29.0)
Bronson Arroyo 0.2391
0.2884
(41.7)
0.2733
(35.0)
Esmil Rogers 0.3853
0.2953
(30.6)
0.2934
(28.7)
Gavin Floyd 0.3251
0.2784
(38.8)
0.2781
(33.1)
John Lannan 0.3188
0.2753
(29.2)
0.2718
(26.7)
James Shields 0.3408
0.2976
(40.6)
0.2823
(47.7)
Trevor Cahill 0.2357
0.2794
(32.7)
0.2734
(33.9)
Tim Hudson 0.2493
0.2917
(37.3)
0.2868
(39.7)
Livan Hernandez 0.2865
0.3222
(30.2)
0.3097
(25.7)
Scott Feldman 0.3273
0.2832
(29.5)
0.2569
(41.6)
Ian Kennedy 0.2556
0.2983
(33.1)
0.2937
(35.3)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Gio González 0.3195 0.2742 37.0
2 Félix Hernández 0.2983 0.2626 33.8
3 Carl Pavano 0.3183 0.2812 31.9
4 Justin Masterson 0.2923 0.3245 27.3
5 Jon Garland 0.2995 0.2653 27.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Jackson 0.2753 0.3133 29.3
2 Dan Haren 0.2786 0.3110 26.7
3 Clay Buchholz 0.2922 0.2608 26.3
4 Francisco Liriano 0.2934 0.3314 26.2
5 A.J. Burnett 0.2825 0.3185 25.3

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Roy Oswalt 0.1823
0.2203
(31.9)
0.2956
(41.3)
Justin Masterson 0.2660
0.2277
(30.6)
0.2921
(30.3)
Jorge De La Rosa 0.1728
0.2229
(25.7)
0.2940
(29.3)
Edwin Jackson 0.2468
0.2175
(26.3)
0.2753
(31.9)
Gavin Floyd 0.2583
0.2064
(41.4)
0.2781
(35.2)
Jeremy Guthrie 0.1722
0.2029
(26.8)
0.2748
(33.8)
James Shields 0.2508
0.2163
(31.0)
0.2823
(29.2)
Joe Blanton 0.2545
0.2222
(24.6)
0.2828
(27.2)
Brian Burres 0.1604
0.2404
(29.0)
0.3036
(28.7)
John Lannan 0.2495
0.2061
(27.9)
0.2718
(26.8)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Blake Hawksworth 0.2014 0.2804 32.3
2 Jason Vargas 0.2276 0.1881 32.1
3 Yovani Gallardo 0.1963 0.2339 30.1
4 Carl Pavano 0.2397 0.2078 29.0
5 Kyle Kendrick 0.2319 0.1954 28.2
6 Bronson Arroyo 0.2142 0.1835 27.1
7 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2196 0.1916 25.1
8 Félix Hernández 0.2322 0.2077 24.6
9 Charlie Morton 0.2231 0.2873 24.5
10 Cliff Lee 0.2375 0.2087 24.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.2210 0.2489 55.4
2 Jonathan Sánchez 0.2931 0.1830 37.6
3 Ian Kennedy 0.2937 0.1866 35.0
4 Scott Feldman 0.2569 0.2450 33.3
5 Rick Porcello 0.2776 0.2586 31.4
6 Sergio Santos 0.2210 0.2770 28.2
7 Matt Cain 0.2719 0.1772 27.6
8 Brad Bergesen 0.2887 0.1893 26.5
9 Clayton Richard 0.2810 0.2475 26.2
10 Brett Cecil 0.3068 0.2071 26.0

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Brad Bergesen 0.0912
0.0705
(16.7)
0.0000
(21.0)
John Lackey 0.0874
0.0613
(25.8)
0.0000
(22.7)
Brandon Morrow 0.1151
0.0585
(36.6)
0.0000
(32.7)
Jorge De La Rosa 0.1049
0.0758
(15.8)
0.0000
(21.5)
Scott Baker 0.0970
0.0648
(24.6)
0.0000
(24.6)
Paul Maholm 0.0905
0.0708
(18.0)
0.0000
(23.1)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.0987
0.0707
(15.1)
0.0000
(18.2)
Brian Burres 0.1194
0.0721
(17.7)
0.0000
(20.4)
Trevor Cahill 0.0347
0.0749
(30.2)
0.0000
(22.2)
Tim Hudson 0.0413
0.0590
(14.7)
0.0000
(20.0)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Gio González 0.0767 0.0457 24.9
2 Randy Wells 0.0502 0.0753 22.6
3 Kyle Davies 0.0583 0.0832 21.8
4 Max Scherzer 0.0764 0.0520 18.1
5 Vin Mazzaro 0.0745 0.0416 16.8
6 Brett Myers 0.0796 0.0600 16.8
7 Kyle Kendrick 0.0616 0.0805 15.9
8 Josh Johnson 0.0453 0.0643 15.4
9 Phil Hughes 0.0763 0.0539 15.1
10 R.A. Dickey 0.0641 0.0418 14.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0656 0.0633 39.4
2 Alex Sanabia 0.0656 0.0511 23.8
3 Scott Atchison 0.0656 0.0492 20.1
4 Kameron Loe 0.0656 0.0468 19.6
5 Kyle Lohse 0.0000 0.1061 18.5
6 Logan Ondrusek 0.0656 0.0517 18.4
7 Ramon E Ramirez 0.0656 0.0637 18.4
8 Yovani Gallardo 0.0000 0.0858 18.3
9 Wilton Lopez 0.0656 0.0591 18.2
10 Alexi Ogando 0.0656 0.0265 17.4

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jair Jurrjens 0.0252
0.0103
(7.6)
0.0000
(9.4)
David Price 0.0122
0.0027
(8.4)
0.0000
(5.0)
Joel Pineiro 0.0203
0.0052
(9.7)
0.0000
(8.8)
Tim Lincecum 0.0141
0.0058
(7.7)
0.0000
(6.9)
Octavio Dotel 0.0375
0.0123
(7.1)
0.0000
(8.7)
Guillermo Mota 0.0305
0.0054
(5.8)
0.0000
(5.5)
Esmil Rogers 0.0216
0.0052
(5.6)
0.0000
(5.1)
Ben Sheets 0.0219
0.0084
(7.0)
0.0000
(7.9)
Charlie Haeger 0.0444
0.0074
(5.6)
0.0000
(5.7)
Craig Stammen 0.0166
0.0054
(6.4)
0.0000
(5.7)
Chad Billingsley 0.0161
0.0081
(6.7)
0.0000
(7.9)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Gio González 0.0128 0.0035 7.7
2 Justin Verlander 0.0035 0.0114 7.5
3 Trevor Cahill 0.0101 0.0017 6.4
4 Francisco Liriano 0.0026 0.0095 5.8
5 Jaime García 0.0106 0.0021 5.8
6 Colby Lewis 0.0125 0.0054 5.8
7 Ian Kennedy 0.0110 0.0037 5.7
8 Jason Hammel 0.0112 0.0036 5.6
9 Carl Pavano 0.0118 0.0055 5.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0067 0.0023 6.5
2 Jeremy Bonderman 0.0000 0.0146 6.2
3 Ricky Romero 0.0000 0.0000 5.7
4 Kenshin Kawakami 0.0000 0.0208 5.6
5 Matt Cain 0.0000 0.0127 5.6
6 Ian Snell 0.0000 0.0303 5.4
7 Tom Gorzelanny 0.0000 0.0149 5.1
8 Dallas Braden 0.0000 0.0000 5.0
9 Greg Smith 0.0000 0.0339 5.0

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Zach Duke 0.1575
0.1239
(26.4)
0.1322
(23.7)
Brett Myers 0.0940
0.1224
(24.1)
0.1342
(31.0)
R.A. Dickey 0.0870
0.1231
(23.9)
0.1356
(29.6)
Carl Pavano 0.1049
0.1344
(24.4)
0.1405
(25.9)
Charlie Morton 0.2068
0.1294
(30.6)
0.1139
(38.2)
David Price 0.0825
0.1241
(33.6)
0.1269
(32.2)
Zack Greinke 0.1240
0.0914
(32.4)
0.0907
(37.1)
Clay Buchholz 0.0774
0.1272
(33.6)
0.1241
(28.2)
Javier Vazquez 0.1406
0.1070
(24.7)
0.1034
(30.2)
Josh Beckett 0.1542
0.1110
(26.5)
0.1155
(26.5)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.1843
0.1096
(39.5)
0.1144
(39.3)
James Shields 0.1424
0.1161
(26.0)
0.1133
(32.5)
Gio González 0.0881
0.1449
(46.1)
0.1389
(37.2)
Chad Qualls 0.1993
0.1066
(26.8)
0.1011
(29.6)
Livan Hernandez 0.1038
0.1384
(28.7)
0.1502
(35.3)
Scott Kazmir 0.1510
0.1147
(26.6)
0.1188
(26.8)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Francisco Liriano 0.1370 0.0955 31.3
2 Mat Latos 0.1270 0.0842 30.0
3 A.J. Burnett 0.1128 0.1423 26.7
4 Brad Bergesen 0.1092 0.1394 24.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.1397 0.0785 28.9
2 Dan Haren 0.0904 0.1107 27.2
3 Trevor Cahill 0.1306 0.0932 23.7
4 Tim Stauffer 0.1329 0.0552 23.0

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jaime García 0.0705
0.1119
(26.9)
0.1174
(28.5)
Brett Myers 0.0833
0.1176
(29.5)
0.1226
(31.2)
R.A. Dickey 0.0771
0.1169
(26.4)
0.1232
(28.7)
Charlie Morton 0.1754
0.1216
(21.6)
0.1042
(29.5)
David Price 0.0732
0.1111
(30.3)
0.1161
(31.9)
Zack Greinke 0.1110
0.0825
(28.8)
0.0832
(30.9)
Clay Buchholz 0.0633
0.1193
(37.8)
0.1128
(31.0)
Javier Vazquez 0.1362
0.1005
(26.3)
0.0943
(32.7)
Josh Beckett 0.1421
0.1044
(23.3)
0.1051
(24.8)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.1608
0.1002
(32.3)
0.1045
(31.7)
Gio González 0.0846
0.1327
(38.5)
0.1267
(30.8)
James Shields 0.1301
0.1061
(24.1)
0.1039
(28.9)
Trevor Cahill 0.0830
0.1159
(23.6)
0.1208
(25.0)
Livan Hernandez 0.0960
0.1330
(30.6)
0.1367
(31.2)
Scott Kazmir 0.1452
0.1070
(27.9)
0.1086
(29.0)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jonathan Sánchez 0.1165 0.0813 26.3
2 Mat Latos 0.1164 0.0802 25.0
3 Nick Blackburn 0.1076 0.1402 24.5
4 A.J. Burnett 0.1052 0.1315 24.1
5 Josh Johnson 0.0963 0.0632 22.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.1278 0.0710 27.2
2 Kevin Correia 0.1012 0.1357 25.9
3 Dan Haren 0.0829 0.1026 25.5
4 Jonny Venters 0.1275 0.0514 24.5
5 Chad Qualls 0.0939 0.1708 23.3

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jaime García 0.4643
0.1429
(183.9)
0.2500
(150.9)
Ervin Santana 0.5152
0.2647
(184.7)
0.3571
(153.4)
R.A. Dickey 0.4074
0.0968
(181.0)
0.1351
(196.1)
Carl Pavano 0.5313
0.2750
(180.7)
0.3158
(197.8)
Phil Hughes 0.5806
0.1316
(286.3)
0.1750
(298.2)
Jon Lester 0.5938
0.3250
(182.5)
0.3939
(174.5)
David Price 0.5938
0.2222
(271.0)
0.3103
(246.4)
Clay Buchholz 0.6071
0.2188
(235.7)
0.3548
(181.4)
Brett Cecil 0.5357
0.2059
(198.2)
0.2414
(215.7)
Gio González 0.4545
0.1765
(188.3)
0.2308
(192.8)
C.J. Wilson 0.4545
0.0784
(271.4)
0.0758
(324.4)
Trevor Cahill 0.6000
0.2143
(257.5)
0.3000
(237.1)
Clayton Richard 0.4242
0.1707
(169.4)
0.2500
(152.5)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2927 0.5758 202.3
2 Roy Halladay 0.3784 0.6364 199.8
3 Colby Lewis 0.0833 0.3750 198.2
4 Adam Wainwright 0.3590 0.6061 173.1
5 Francisco Liriano 0.1842 0.4516 169.7
6 Tim Hudson 0.2609 0.5000 167.7
7 CC Sabathia 0.3947 0.6176 161.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Myers 0.1818 0.4242 229.5
2 Brandon Morrow 0.1000 0.3846 180.8
3 Tim Wakefield 0.4231 0.1250 180.1
4 Kevin Millwood 0.3333 0.1290 169.6
5 Bruce Chen 0.1111 0.3636 155.2
6 Dan Haren 0.5000 0.3429 153.4
7 Zack Greinke 0.4706 0.3030 151.4

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Charlie Morton 0.7059
0.2941
(132.7)
0.3667
(134.1)
Justin Masterson 0.3824
0.1628
(124.4)
0.1860
(166.9)
Zack Greinke 0.4242
0.2093
(138.4)
0.2647
(157.4)
Dallas Braden 0.4667
0.2222
(140.6)
0.3214
(122.6)
James Shields 0.4412
0.2308
(131.3)
0.2941
(142.8)
Joe Saunders 0.5152
0.1842
(234.6)
0.3548
(151.4)
Scott Kazmir 0.5357
0.2222
(169.9)
0.2903
(175.4)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rodrigo Lopez 0.1250 0.4848 258.2
2 Colby Lewis 0.0833 0.4063 218.2
3 Doug Fister 0.1667 0.5000 193.6
4 Mitch Talbot 0.1250 0.4643 191.3
5 David Huff 0.2162 0.7333 167.1
6 Kevin Millwood 0.2632 0.5161 158.8
7 Paul Maholm 0.2368 0.4688 140.7
8 Wade LeBlanc 0.1724 0.4615 140.5
9 Randy Wells 0.2105 0.4375 137.1
10 Brian Matusz 0.1333 0.3750 134.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.0303 0.2424 190.3
2 Félix Hernández 0.2059 0.3529 159.0
3 Max Scherzer 0.1724 0.3548 155.4
4 Hiroki Kuroda 0.2400 0.4194 154.8
5 Clayton Kershaw 0.1471 0.3125 150.3
6 Andy Sonnanstine 0.4545 0.0244 148.5
7 Dan Haren 0.2059 0.3429 147.9
8 Craig Stammen 0.3793 0.1143 142.3
9 Johnny Cueto 0.4194 0.2258 141.8
10 Brian Duensing 0.3125 0.0566 130.6

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Juan Carlos Oviedo 0.4412
0.1915
(73.0)
0.0000
(111.9)
Neftalí Feliz 0.5714
0.0952
(133.6)
0.0000
(146.5)
Heath Bell 0.7015
0.2400
(138.3)
0.0000
(193.7)
Billy Wagner 0.5211
0.2800
(70.1)
0.0000
(132.5)
David Aardsma 0.5849
0.2653
(68.7)
0.0000
(112.7)
Kevin Gregg 0.5873
0.3077
(76.2)
0.0000
(142.4)
Matt Capps 0.5676
0.3256
(80.1)
0.0000
(165.0)
John Axford 0.4800
0.0714
(102.1)
0.0000
(107.9)
Rafael Soriano 0.7031
0.2292
(117.2)
0.0000
(160.3)
Brian Wilson 0.6857
0.4400
(82.8)
0.0000
(204.9)
Carlos Marmol 0.4935
0.1071
(135.1)
0.0000
(155.0)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.2157 0.0000 165.9
2 Octavio Dotel 0.0426 0.3235 84.1
3 Chris Perez 0.0698 0.3651 82.1
4 Brett Myers 0.1000 0.0000 74.4
5 Hisanori Takahashi 0.0278 0.1509 74.1
6 Alfredo Simon 0.0476 0.3469 71.0
7 Brandon Morrow 0.1316 0.0000 69.8
8 Jon Rauch 0.0926 0.3559 69.6
9 Matt Lindstrom 0.1364 0.3966 68.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joakim Soria 0.0000 0.6515 168.7
2 Francisco Cordero 0.0000 0.5333 160.1
3 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.5692 155.7
4 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.5410 118.3
5 Ryan Franklin 0.0000 0.4576 113.8
6 Bobby Jenks 0.0000 0.4909 107.2
7 Jose Valverde 0.0000 0.4333 105.3
8 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0000 0.4717 105.0
9 Brad Lidge 0.0000 0.5400 99.1

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Daniel Bard 0.4384
0.1875
(84.4)
0.0000
(115.4)
Gil Meche 0.3000
0.0606
(77.2)
0.0000
(71.0)
Tyler Clippard 0.2949
0.1000
(87.0)
0.0000
(93.6)
Matt Belisle 0.2763
0.0909
(80.6)
0.0000
(83.6)
Fernando Rodney 0.2917
0.0833
(75.1)
0.0000
(75.3)
Kameron Loe 0.4151
0.1250
(78.1)
0.0492
(76.5)
Jonny Venters 0.3038
0.0492
(101.5)
0.0000
(89.8)
Clay Hensley 0.3235
0.1176
(74.1)
0.0000
(84.8)
Mike Adams 0.5286
0.2424
(86.2)
0.0000
(129.0)
Luke Gregerson 0.5000
0.2791
(76.1)
0.0000
(134.5)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Phil Hughes 0.2105 0.0000 127.9
2 C.J. Wilson 0.1765 0.0000 120.0
3 Carlos Marmol 0.2857 0.0000 83.1
4 Ian Kennedy 0.1304 0.0000 77.0
5 Ramon Pena 0.2264 0.0192 76.3
6 Jaime García 0.1429 0.0000 74.7
7 Andrew Cashner 0.0492 0.3019 71.4
8 Sean Marshall 0.0976 0.2750 65.3
9 Takashi Saito 0.0488 0.3036 64.1
10 Mitch Talbot 0.1250 0.0000 62.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joba Chamberlain 0.0000 0.3425 90.0
2 Kevin Jepsen 0.0000 0.3971 88.5
3 Scott Downs 0.0000 0.3881 82.1
4 Matt Guerrier 0.0000 0.3243 79.2
5 Joaquín Benoit 0.0000 0.3968 75.9
6 Hung-Chih Kuo 0.0000 0.3750 75.1
7 Arthur Rhodes 0.0000 0.3768 71.5
8 Kyle McClellan 0.0000 0.2794 71.3
9 Matt Thornton 0.0000 0.3443 71.0
10 Ryan Perry 0.0000 0.3167 70.3

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jaime García 2.7000
4.3548
(1101.4)
4.7487
(1219.7)
Brett Myers 3.1386
4.5547
(1259.9)
4.8324
(1310.5)
R.A. Dickey 2.8394
4.6721
(1256.8)
5.0400
(1359.6)
Charlie Morton 7.5690
4.7897
(1088.5)
4.1159
(1431.3)
David Price 2.7173
4.3200
(1319.7)
4.6339
(1397.3)
Zack Greinke 4.1727
3.0628
(1084.4)
3.1062
(1250.1)
Clay Buchholz 2.3321
4.7203
(1648.2)
4.4628
(1306.1)
Javier Vazquez 5.3199
3.7420
(1125.6)
3.5255
(1426.2)
Josh Beckett 5.7807
3.9344
(1105.7)
3.9629
(1218.3)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 6.7500
3.8393
(1520.2)
4.0527
(1525.4)
James Shields 5.1787
3.9990
(1123.6)
3.9367
(1380.6)
Gio González 3.2292
5.3818
(1772.2)
5.2143
(1439.3)
Chad Qualls 7.3220
3.7370
(1027.1)
3.5634
(1138.7)
Trevor Cahill 2.9746
4.5116
(1148.6)
4.8734
(1256.8)
Livan Hernandez 3.6567
5.2878
(1398.7)
5.6654
(1536.6)
Scott Kazmir 5.9400
4.1557
(1264.7)
4.2579
(1347.5)

Individual Misses for ERA

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jonathan Sánchez 4.5803 3.0724 1167.5
2 Mat Latos 4.4796 2.9242 1111.1
3 Roberto Hernandez 5.0261 3.7655 1047.7
4 A.J. Burnett 4.0820 5.2554 1030.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 5.1830 2.6173 1215.5
2 Dan Haren 3.0439 3.9064 1149.3
3 Kevin Correia 3.9320 5.4000 1129.2
4 Jonny Venters 5.4187 1.9518 1110.6

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Zach Duke 1.6541
1.4118
(183.2)
1.4021
(213.4)
Roy Oswalt 1.0252
1.2640
(192.7)
1.2865
(184.9)
Rich Harden 1.6630
1.2664
(174.2)
1.2540
(193.2)
Jered Weaver 1.0743
1.2968
(193.6)
1.3204
(186.2)
R.A. Dickey 1.1874
1.5027
(218.7)
1.5440
(225.5)
Kyle Lohse 1.7826
1.3470
(191.5)
1.3987
(182.9)
Josh Beckett 1.5352
1.2186
(187.7)
1.1903
(222.3)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 1.6921
1.3194
(194.4)
1.3083
(216.3)
Gio González 1.3106
1.5731
(216.1)
1.5714
(187.6)
James Shields 1.4607
1.2650
(183.6)
1.2106
(261.1)
Trevor Cahill 1.1085
1.4203
(237.4)
1.4813
(260.4)
Livan Hernandez 1.3228
1.5588
(203.7)
1.6049
(216.6)
Ian Kennedy 1.2010
1.4966
(232.4)
1.4815
(194.5)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Félix Hernández 1.2756 1.0574 209.8
2 Cliff Lee 1.2526 1.0031 203.0
3 Mat Latos 1.3575 1.0830 198.8
4 Adam Wainwright 1.2652 1.0507 187.4
5 Roberto Hernandez 1.5264 1.3074 185.1
6 Colby Lewis 1.4122 1.1891 181.1
7 Dallas Braden 1.3968 1.1574 180.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Haren 1.0805 1.2723 230.8
2 Ricky Romero 1.5864 1.2905 225.5
3 Paul Maholm 1.3539 1.5647 211.0
4 Javier Vazquez 1.1561 1.3983 193.0
5 Scott Feldman 1.3533 1.5991 183.4
6 Scott Kazmir 1.3581 1.5800 178.9
7 Aaron Harang 1.2719 1.5851 178.2