2010 Projection Evaluation

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jacoby Ellsbury 84
615
(531.0)
630
(546.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 1 675 674.0
2 Jason Heyward 1 623 622.0
3 Ike Davis 1 601 600.0
4 Brennan Boesch 1 512 511.0
5 Starlin Castro 1 506 505.0
6 Mike Jacobs 489 28 461.0
7 Jose Tabata 1 441 440.0
8 Willy Taveras 472 37 435.0
9 Mark DeRosa 537 104 433.0
10 Gaby Sanchez 215 643 428.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kila Ka'aihue 968 206 762.0
2 Chris Carter 660 78 582.0
3 Mark Trumbo 592 16 576.0
4 Andrew Romine 582 12 570.0
5 Eric Sogard 573 9 564.0
6 Pedro Ciriaco 550 6 544.0
7 Mat Gamel 552 17 535.0
8 Mike Carp 576 41 535.0
9 Brandon Hicks 540 6 534.0
10 Juan Francisco 589 59 530.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Carlos Pena 0.3280
0.3901
(30.7)
0.3895
(34.8)
Aubrey Huff 0.3889
0.3432
(36.8)
0.3439
(31.2)
Miguel Cabrera 0.4445
0.3939
(38.9)
0.3989
(30.7)
Paul Konerko 0.4201
0.3580
(45.0)
0.3611
(38.4)
Carlos Lee 0.3102
0.3710
(33.4)
0.3784
(43.1)
Chone Figgins 0.2909
0.3434
(30.4)
0.3371
(31.2)
Robinson Canó 0.3973
0.3523
(37.8)
0.3538
(31.5)
Carlos González 0.4167
0.3312
(60.3)
0.3497
(43.7)
José Bautista 0.4228
0.3271
(71.7)
0.3218
(70.2)
Pablo Sandoval 0.3231
0.3855
(32.7)
0.3870
(38.3)
Joey Votto 0.4411
0.3921
(37.8)
0.3832
(38.7)
Josh Hamilton 0.4468
0.3650
(52.0)
0.3655
(47.4)
Adrian Beltré 0.3957
0.3305
(47.8)
0.3428
(35.1)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Heyward 0.3267 0.3783 37.9
2 Colby Rasmus 0.3181 0.3730 34.3
3 Justin Morneau 0.3689 0.4530 32.5
4 Kelly Johnson 0.3386 0.3772 32.1
5 Ben Zobrist 0.3718 0.3143 31.6
6 Vernon Wells 0.3276 0.3661 30.9
7 Buster Posey 0.3162 0.3752 30.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brandon Wood 0.3188 0.1674 36.4
2 Jim Thome 0.3433 0.4418 34.1
3 Jose Lopez 0.3256 0.2702 33.4
4 Aramis Ramirez 0.3884 0.3241 31.7
5 Garrett Jones 0.3654 0.3161 31.0
6 Adam Lind 0.3625 0.3114 30.3
7 Yunel Escobar 0.3505 0.2971 29.3

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Adam Lind 0.2349
0.1757
(32.6)
0.1862
(33.7)
Colby Rasmus 0.2772
0.1814
(47.9)
0.1948
(47.3)
David Ortiz 0.2393
0.1793
(32.7)
0.1928
(32.0)
Denard Span 0.1050
0.1441
(31.7)
0.1558
(31.4)
Todd Helton 0.1903
0.1266
(27.3)
0.1231
(34.7)
Adam LaRoche 0.2797
0.2138
(36.9)
0.2253
(37.3)
David Wright 0.2403
0.1843
(33.5)
0.1988
(32.0)
Delmon Young 0.1321
0.1888
(38.4)
0.1953
(34.9)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1797 0.3106 49.5
2 Pedro Alvarez 0.1797 0.3083 47.3
3 Austin Jackson 0.1797 0.2519 44.7
4 Drew Stubbs 0.2079 0.2882 43.3
5 John Jaso 0.1773 0.0965 35.0
6 Adam Dunn 0.2483 0.3071 34.2
7 Austin Kearns 0.1824 0.2516 29.2
8 Ryan Braun 0.1879 0.1533 27.8
9 Buster Posey 0.1806 0.1242 27.6
10 Michael Cuddyer 0.1727 0.1378 27.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Bautista 0.2295 0.1698 36.4
2 Kelly Johnson 0.1732 0.2206 36.0
3 Ike Davis 0.2945 0.2296 35.2
4 Chase Headley 0.2646 0.2062 35.1
5 Mark Reynolds 0.3043 0.3540 33.4
6 Hideki Matsui 0.1267 0.1756 30.8
7 Jonny Gomes 0.2747 0.2154 30.3
8 Aramis Ramirez 0.1255 0.1775 29.5
9 Chris Coghlan 0.1461 0.2100 28.1
10 Derrek Lee 0.1761 0.2141 27.7

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Brett Gardner 0.1388
0.0833
(32.4)
0.0974
(21.8)
Aubrey Huff 0.1243
0.0827
(28.7)
0.0806
(27.1)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1373
0.0971
(27.0)
0.0996
(22.5)
Robinson Canó 0.0819
0.0530
(21.1)
0.0477
(21.7)
John Jaso 0.1460
0.0837
(25.7)
0.0909
(21.0)
Marco Scutaro 0.0763
0.1088
(21.7)
0.1126
(27.4)
Adam Dunn 0.1188
0.1628
(27.6)
0.1728
(37.0)
José Reyes 0.0514
0.0934
(24.5)
0.0957
(28.6)
Nick Swisher 0.0913
0.1426
(31.7)
0.1412
(33.6)
Brian McCann 0.1307
0.0867
(25.7)
0.0883
(22.3)
Jason Heyward 0.1461
0.0868
(37.8)
0.0907
(32.6)
Daric Barton 0.1603
0.1176
(30.3)
0.1210
(24.9)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Bautista 0.1106 0.1464 25.4
2 Colby Rasmus 0.0759 0.1180 23.2
3 Mark Reynolds 0.1035 0.1393 22.1
4 Joey Votto 0.1080 0.1404 21.9
5 Prince Fielder 0.1313 0.1597 21.3
6 Julio Borbon 0.0872 0.0406 21.2
7 Ike Davis 0.0868 0.1198 20.7
8 Carlos Santana 0.0868 0.1927 20.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Drew 0.1553 0.1099 26.5
2 Adam Jones 0.0703 0.0370 22.6
3 Ryan Howard 0.1265 0.0952 21.3
4 Adam LaRoche 0.1092 0.0780 21.0
5 Vladimir Guerrero 0.0838 0.0544 20.9
6 John Buck 0.0794 0.0366 20.1
7 Chone Figgins 0.1309 0.1054 20.1
8 David Wright 0.1284 0.1030 19.1

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Juan Pierre 0.0286
0.0112
(13.2)
0.0128
(12.0)
Ryan Raburn 0.0195
0.0055
(6.0)
0.0052
(6.1)
Brandon Inge 0.0086
0.0199
(6.2)
0.0232
(8.1)
Aubrey Huff 0.0135
0.0054
(5.8)
0.0051
(5.9)
Rod Barajas 0.0236
0.0087
(5.2)
0.0086
(5.3)
Prince Fielder 0.0294
0.0156
(10.3)
0.0160
(9.9)
Jason Kendall 0.0122
0.0235
(5.2)
0.0256
(6.3)
Dan Uggla 0.0030
0.0135
(6.7)
0.0129
(6.4)
Alex Rodriguez 0.0050
0.0193
(8.2)
0.0215
(9.5)
Josh Wilson 0.0309
0.0131
(7.2)
0.0183
(5.1)
Brett Carroll 0.0778
0.0142
(5.8)
0.0149
(5.7)
Jason Heyward 0.0161
0.0085
(5.1)
0.0060
(6.5)
Marlon Byrd 0.0270
0.0148
(8.0)
0.0169
(6.6)
Travis Hafner 0.0260
0.0122
(6.6)
0.0118
(6.8)
Daniel Nava 0.0426
0.0085
(6.5)
0.0085
(6.5)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.0206 0.0332 9.9
2 Rubén Tejada 0.0085 0.0314 6.0
3 Fred Lewis 0.0072 0.0187 5.8
4 José Bautista 0.0068 0.0146 5.8
5 Brett Wallace 0.0085 0.0440 5.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt LaPorta 0.0213 0.0024 7.8
2 Daric Barton 0.0134 0.0044 5.9
3 Lastings Milledge 0.0209 0.0073 5.4
4 Mark Reynolds 0.0067 0.0151 5.3
5 Kevin Kouzmanoff 0.0193 0.0102 5.0

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Colby Rasmus 0.0714
0.0401
(17.5)
0.0391
(16.6)
Jason Bay 0.0230
0.0693
(18.0)
0.0911
(27.8)
Paul Konerko 0.0878
0.0599
(18.6)
0.0562
(19.2)
Jonny Gomes 0.0453
0.0711
(13.8)
0.0791
(19.9)
Carlos González 0.0741
0.0393
(23.1)
0.0442
(18.2)
José Bautista 0.1182
0.0425
(52.7)
0.0459
(48.5)
Tyler Colvin 0.0763
0.0323
(18.0)
0.0303
(17.7)
Corey Hart 0.0733
0.0427
(19.8)
0.0455
(16.3)
Joey Votto 0.0871
0.0582
(19.7)
0.0588
(17.5)
Jim Thome 0.1276
0.0870
(14.3)
0.0760
(17.1)
Ryan Howard 0.0783
0.1040
(15.0)
0.1183
(25.5)
Ben Zobrist 0.0221
0.0577
(22.3)
0.0475
(17.4)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0367 0.0928 22.9
2 Kelly Johnson 0.0319 0.0588 19.1
3 Vernon Wells 0.0346 0.0609 18.0
4 Austin Jackson 0.0367 0.0088 17.8
5 Mark Reynolds 0.0865 0.1092 14.5
6 Starlin Castro 0.0367 0.0075 14.0
7 David Wright 0.0471 0.0662 13.8
8 Elvis Andrus 0.0215 0.0000 13.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Evan Longoria 0.0789 0.0478 21.3
2 Raul Ibanez 0.0670 0.0348 21.3
3 Drew Stubbs 0.0256 0.0620 20.5
4 Ryan Braun 0.0752 0.0483 19.3
5 Michael Cuddyer 0.0511 0.0269 17.1
6 Ryan Ludwick 0.0734 0.0452 16.3
7 Nick Markakis 0.0426 0.0222 15.4
8 Prince Fielder 0.0926 0.0726 15.1

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Carlos Pena 0.2219
0.2837
(33.7)
0.2818
(30.3)
Austin Jackson 0.3933
0.2971
(67.5)
0.3148
(58.3)
Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.3318
0.2844
(38.7)
0.2918
(36.1)
Colby Rasmus 0.3512
0.2836
(38.1)
0.3035
(29.6)
Aaron Hill 0.1952
0.2980
(57.4)
0.2951
(53.4)
Mark Reynolds 0.2567
0.3312
(42.1)
0.3302
(39.1)
Justin Morneau 0.3853
0.2893
(34.8)
0.2962
(33.7)
Carlos Lee 0.2376
0.2928
(33.3)
0.2919
(30.1)
Chris Johnson 0.3868
0.2848
(38.3)
0.3028
(33.3)
Nick Swisher 0.3325
0.2751
(38.9)
0.2857
(34.7)
Carlos González 0.3835
0.3160
(45.4)
0.3125
(50.2)
Carlos Ruiz 0.3355
0.2635
(32.8)
0.2692
(32.1)
Matt Kemp 0.2954
0.3502
(34.1)
0.3607
(38.3)
Jay Bruce 0.3343
0.2660
(41.3)
0.2831
(33.8)
Josh Hamilton 0.3889
0.3192
(42.0)
0.3212
(43.1)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Paul Konerko 0.2706 0.3259 37.4
2 Jack Cust 0.3165 0.3868 31.5
3 Austin Kearns 0.2807 0.3441 31.0
4 Aramis Ramirez 0.3084 0.2451 30.2
5 Adrian Beltré 0.2888 0.3313 29.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Buck 0.2704 0.3345 31.4
2 Dan Uggla 0.2917 0.3301 31.2
3 Denard Span 0.3408 0.2890 31.0
4 Akinori Iwamura 0.3455 0.2065 30.0
5 Alcides Escobar 0.3230 0.2620 29.4

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Austin Jackson 0.2956
0.2225
(50.1)
0.2421
(39.8)
Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.2500
0.1991
(39.3)
0.2060
(37.4)
John Buck 0.2465
0.1864
(26.8)
0.1888
(27.7)
Aaron Hill 0.1429
0.2190
(43.5)
0.2178
(40.2)
Dan Uggla 0.2549
0.1966
(40.0)
0.2000
(40.7)
Denard Span 0.2287
0.2693
(27.8)
0.2780
(30.8)
Nick Swisher 0.2432
0.1893
(34.9)
0.1971
(32.8)
Carlos González 0.2824
0.2230
(38.4)
0.2201
(43.1)
B.J. Upton 0.1866
0.2391
(31.3)
0.2408
(29.7)
José Bautista 0.1390
0.2014
(41.9)
0.1959
(35.1)
Matt Kemp 0.2203
0.2681
(31.2)
0.2670
(27.4)
Jay Bruce 0.2550
0.1987
(32.9)
0.2078
(30.2)
Josh Hamilton 0.2803
0.2345
(26.8)
0.2351
(29.0)
Bobby Abreu 0.1972
0.2450
(31.2)
0.2438
(27.4)
Omar Infante 0.3071
0.2444
(32.3)
0.2489
(32.3)
Delmon Young 0.2138
0.2614
(28.5)
0.2625
(26.4)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Paul Konerko 0.1989 0.2494 32.5
2 Mark Reynolds 0.2334 0.1839 28.9
3 Elvis Andrus 0.2308 0.2711 27.9
4 Derek Jeter 0.2857 0.2468 27.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 0.1738 0.2163 32.0
2 Matt Diaz 0.2946 0.1705 28.9
3 Adrián González 0.2114 0.2472 28.7
4 Scott Podsednik 0.2459 0.2854 26.8

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Colby Rasmus 0.0936
0.0627
(17.6)
0.0678
(14.6)
Vernon Wells 0.0921
0.0673
(17.3)
0.0695
(15.5)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1064
0.0767
(20.5)
0.0811
(17.3)
Jerry Hairston 0.0346
0.0725
(17.1)
0.0700
(16.1)
Ronny Cedeno 0.0799
0.0507
(15.7)
0.0485
(16.5)
Adam Dunn 0.1108
0.0799
(21.3)
0.0820
(19.6)
Jayson Werth 0.1183
0.0634
(37.1)
0.0671
(34.3)
Jim Edmonds 0.1307
0.0654
(18.3)
0.0724
(16.3)
Andres Torres 0.1168
0.0645
(31.0)
0.0602
(33.1)
Alfonso Soriano 0.1133
0.0804
(19.2)
0.0821
(17.9)
Josh Hamilton 0.1010
0.0749
(16.1)
0.0762
(15.1)
Scott Podsednik 0.0300
0.0599
(16.6)
0.0656
(20.2)
Delmon Young 0.0964
0.0625
(22.0)
0.0700
(17.1)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrian Beltré 0.0736 0.1008 18.8
2 Joe Mauer 0.0686 0.0947 16.5
3 James Loney 0.0613 0.0842 16.2
4 Bobby Abreu 0.0743 0.0962 16.0
5 Travis Hafner 0.0674 0.0993 15.7
6 Omar Infante 0.0677 0.0369 14.6
7 B.J. Upton 0.0842 0.1058 14.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Gonzalez 0.0590 0.0911 21.5
2 Carlos Pena 0.0893 0.0596 16.4
3 Nelson Cruz 0.0693 0.1023 15.4
4 Kurt Suzuki 0.0705 0.0412 15.1
5 Brandon Wood 0.0741 0.0125 14.6
6 Ryan Howard 0.0875 0.0630 14.2
7 Chris Snyder 0.0815 0.0423 14.2

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Austin Jackson 0.0222
0.0069
(10.8)
0.0097
(9.0)
Cliff Pennington 0.0190
0.0086
(6.4)
0.0088
(6.3)
Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.0091
0.0190
(6.9)
0.0172
(5.5)
Jason Bay 0.0235
0.0086
(6.3)
0.0084
(6.4)
Elvis Andrus 0.0059
0.0165
(6.7)
0.0173
(7.2)
Logan Morrison 0.0366
0.0069
(8.7)
0.0063
(8.9)
Eric Patterson 0.0413
0.0055
(7.5)
0.0121
(6.1)
Melvin Mora 0.0194
0.0027
(6.1)
0.0030
(6.1)
Ryan Braun 0.0020
0.0142
(7.8)
0.0135
(7.4)
Dexter Fowler 0.0417
0.0222
(10.2)
0.0193
(11.7)
Evan Longoria 0.0114
0.0026
(6.3)
0.0025
(6.4)
Alcides Escobar 0.0228
0.0098
(7.6)
0.0103
(7.3)
Will Venable 0.0273
0.0121
(7.1)
0.0107
(7.7)
Justin Upton 0.0090
0.0204
(6.1)
0.0199
(5.8)
Chris Young 0.0000
0.0120
(7.5)
0.0126
(7.9)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wes Helms 0.0000 0.0226 6.7
2 Ben Zobrist 0.0146 0.0045 6.1
3 Carl Crawford 0.0183 0.0265 5.9
4 Tyler Colvin 0.0067 0.0207 5.8
5 Rafael Furcal 0.0096 0.0219 5.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ángel Pagán 0.0293 0.0146 8.8
2 Miguel Olivo 0.0082 0.0224 6.4
3 Drew Stubbs 0.0079 0.0180 6.3
4 Kevin Youkilis 0.0055 0.0178 5.7
5 Andres Torres 0.0321 0.0217 5.5

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Austin Jackson 0.1526
0.1171
(28.4)
0.0978
(39.8)
Ichiro Suzuki 0.1011
0.1352
(20.1)
0.1344
(21.3)
Carl Crawford 0.1659
0.1404
(21.3)
0.1398
(20.1)
Aubrey Huff 0.1497
0.1187
(25.1)
0.1201
(22.6)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1713
0.1311
(30.4)
0.1332
(27.4)
Chone Figgins 0.0883
0.1473
(36.7)
0.1483
(39.2)
Lance Berkman 0.0998
0.1444
(18.3)
0.1517
(22.9)
Carlos González 0.1745
0.1328
(30.7)
0.1341
(28.4)
Joey Votto 0.1636
0.1322
(24.6)
0.1324
(22.9)
Josh Hamilton 0.1664
0.1325
(23.2)
0.1323
(21.9)
Drew Stubbs 0.1561
0.1287
(19.8)
0.1207
(23.1)
Adam Lind 0.0930
0.1336
(20.8)
0.1315
(21.0)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Bautista 0.1219 0.1596 30.3
2 Martín Prado 0.1263 0.1536 22.1
3 Alex Rodriguez 0.1644 0.1244 19.9
4 Howie Kendrick 0.1383 0.1018 19.6
5 Paul Konerko 0.1175 0.1410 19.0
6 Hunter Pence 0.1193 0.1413 18.9
7 Brett Gardner 0.1444 0.1705 18.6
8 Orlando Hudson 0.1173 0.1431 18.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nyjer Morgan 0.1692 0.1040 35.2
2 Adam Jones 0.1640 0.1224 23.2
3 Ike Davis 0.0880 0.1215 22.7
4 Michael Saunders 0.1586 0.0887 21.5
5 Nate McLouth 0.1825 0.1042 21.4
6 Alcides Escobar 0.1454 0.1033 20.9
7 Miguel Tejada 0.1387 0.1043 20.6
8 Luis Valbuena 0.1415 0.0710 20.6

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Bengie Molina 0.0865
0.1522
(25.0)
0.1770
(35.0)
Paul Konerko 0.1759
0.1320
(31.3)
0.1294
(33.3)
Prince Fielder 0.1162
0.1672
(32.4)
0.2067
(60.1)
Troy Tulowitzki 0.1796
0.1343
(26.9)
0.1331
(27.9)
Carlos González 0.1840
0.0952
(60.0)
0.1210
(44.0)
Erick Aybar 0.0492
0.1048
(29.4)
0.1074
(30.5)
José Bautista 0.1816
0.1106
(52.3)
0.1263
(42.0)
Nick Markakis 0.0846
0.1374
(33.5)
0.1474
(40.0)
Brandon Phillips 0.0859
0.1372
(31.4)
0.1452
(36.4)
Delmon Young 0.1827
0.1266
(37.9)
0.1356
(32.7)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 0.1116 0.0607 30.5
2 Corey Hart 0.1248 0.1661 28.9
3 Adrian Beltré 0.1207 0.1591 28.2
4 Robinson Canó 0.1258 0.1566 25.3
5 Miguel Cabrera 0.1618 0.1944 24.8
6 Chris Young 0.1063 0.1370 24.2
7 Yunel Escobar 0.1099 0.0617 24.1
8 Vladimir Guerrero 0.1473 0.1788 23.9
9 Pedro Alvarez 0.1116 0.1658 23.1
10 Ryan Hanigan 0.0761 0.1646 22.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Pablo Sandoval 0.1705 0.1023 38.2
2 Drew Stubbs 0.0777 0.1321 35.4
3 Ryan Ludwick 0.1873 0.1248 31.1
4 Orlando Hudson 0.1272 0.0662 30.6
5 Carlos Lee 0.1899 0.1371 30.2
6 Alex Gonzalez 0.0973 0.1375 29.8
7 Alex Rodriguez 0.1667 0.2101 29.6
8 Albert Pujols 0.2156 0.1686 28.5
9 Ian Desmond 0.0702 0.1132 28.3
10 Derrek Lee 0.1780 0.1278 27.5

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Jarrod Dyson 0.8182
0.0649
(48.9)
0.0649
(48.6)
Cliff Pennington 0.2071
0.0909
(66.5)
0.1078
(53.8)
Andres Torres 0.2047
0.1045
(56.7)
0.1011
(55.7)
Alex Rios 0.2222
0.1460
(46.5)
0.1477
(42.4)
B.J. Upton 0.3088
0.2025
(64.3)
0.2096
(56.9)
Will Venable 0.2566
0.0645
(85.1)
0.0652
(82.5)
Franklin Gutierrez 0.1667
0.0935
(45.5)
0.0625
(61.8)
Rafael Furcal 0.1864
0.0927
(39.8)
0.0769
(44.3)
Ángel Pagán 0.2256
0.1250
(63.2)
0.1500
(44.1)
Coco Crisp 0.3765
0.1685
(67.9)
0.1935
(58.1)
Brandon Phillips 0.0941
0.1583
(44.6)
0.1678
(54.7)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.1250 0.0521 55.6
2 Austin Jackson 0.0649 0.1467 54.7
3 Peter Bourjos 0.0649 0.3448 53.9
4 Corey Hart 0.1327 0.0500 51.3
5 Adrian Beltré 0.0877 0.0129 48.5
6 Drew Stubbs 0.1316 0.2083 44.3
7 Torii Hunter 0.1190 0.0529 43.2
8 Eric Young Jr. 0.1000 0.3208 41.6
9 Jose Tabata 0.0649 0.1557 39.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 0.0667 0.1687 63.8
2 José Reyes 0.3028 0.2113 58.8
3 Julio Borbon 0.2398 0.1210 58.4
4 Jayson Nix 0.1429 0.0139 49.0
5 Rajai Davis 0.2617 0.3497 46.0
6 Alcides Escobar 0.1534 0.0769 45.5
7 Elvis Andrus 0.2138 0.1546 43.9
8 Alex Rodriguez 0.0943 0.0282 42.9
9 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1250 0.1883 42.0

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Carlos Pena 0.1963
0.2511
(27.9)
0.2432
(27.2)
Austin Jackson 0.2929
0.2612
(26.1)
0.2468
(31.2)
Aaron Hill 0.2045
0.2807
(40.2)
0.2746
(40.5)
Mark Reynolds 0.1984
0.2562
(30.3)
0.2585
(35.7)
Paul Konerko 0.3120
0.2614
(36.3)
0.2685
(27.6)
Carlos Lee 0.2463
0.2992
(29.8)
0.2976
(33.1)
Dan Uggla 0.2869
0.2505
(29.2)
0.2458
(27.9)
Aramis Ramirez 0.2409
0.2966
(24.7)
0.2952
(27.5)
Nick Swisher 0.2880
0.2452
(31.6)
0.2427
(28.9)
Carlos González 0.3356
0.2659
(48.7)
0.2705
(41.6)
Matt Kemp 0.2492
0.2962
(26.8)
0.3002
(33.9)
Pablo Sandoval 0.2682
0.3165
(25.5)
0.3199
(31.7)
Josh Hamilton 0.3591
0.2857
(45.9)
0.2833
(43.4)
Adrian Beltré 0.3209
0.2670
(39.0)
0.2762
(28.8)
Derek Jeter 0.2700
0.3143
(27.6)
0.3030
(24.2)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nelson Cruz 0.2637 0.3183 27.4
2 Carlos Ruiz 0.2480 0.3019 26.4
3 Buster Posey 0.2539 0.3054 25.9
4 Billy Butler 0.2870 0.3176 25.5
5 Justin Morneau 0.2808 0.3446 24.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Buck 0.2208 0.2812 26.5
2 Akinori Iwamura 0.2864 0.1735 25.8
3 Garrett Jones 0.2852 0.2466 25.1
4 Brendan Ryan 0.2739 0.2232 24.5
5 Casey Kotchman 0.2709 0.2174 24.4

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Brett Gardner 0.3830
0.3305
(34.3)
0.3295
(30.4)
Aubrey Huff 0.3847
0.3333
(39.5)
0.3328
(34.6)
Aaron Hill 0.2712
0.3299
(29.6)
0.3257
(31.7)
Carlos Lee 0.2912
0.3497
(32.9)
0.3538
(40.7)
Robinson Canó 0.3807
0.3377
(35.3)
0.3354
(31.5)
Aramis Ramirez 0.2939
0.3698
(34.5)
0.3702
(38.8)
José Bautista 0.3777
0.3341
(35.1)
0.3263
(35.1)
Jason Heyward 0.3933
0.3300
(44.2)
0.3448
(30.1)
Joey Votto 0.4244
0.3799
(33.9)
0.3735
(32.9)
Josh Hamilton 0.4105
0.3488
(39.7)
0.3475
(35.9)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Daric Barton 0.3446 0.3932 38.6
2 Carlos González 0.3241 0.3758 37.9
3 Adrian Beltré 0.3185 0.3651 34.8
4 Billy Butler 0.3450 0.3879 34.4
5 Paul Konerko 0.3472 0.3930 33.8
6 Miguel Cabrera 0.3754 0.4198 33.8
7 Ryan Zimmerman 0.3444 0.3881 31.0
8 Carlos Ruiz 0.3365 0.3995 30.7
9 Justin Morneau 0.3575 0.4368 30.3
10 Denard Span 0.3800 0.3309 29.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Lind 0.3412 0.2871 33.2
2 Marco Scutaro 0.3798 0.3329 32.7
3 David Wright 0.4006 0.3537 31.5
4 Matt Kemp 0.3566 0.3099 31.3
5 Brandon Wood 0.3016 0.1745 30.9
6 Austin Jackson 0.3002 0.3452 30.3
7 Ike Davis 0.3021 0.3511 29.4
8 Pablo Sandoval 0.3705 0.3231 29.3
9 Casey Kotchman 0.3437 0.2801 29.1
10 Alberto Callaspo 0.3481 0.3017 28.0

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Carlos Pena 0.4070
0.5291
(61.6)
0.5239
(69.5)
Miguel Cabrera 0.6223
0.5319
(69.2)
0.5361
(54.3)
Paul Konerko 0.5839
0.4689
(82.9)
0.4649
(73.5)
Yunel Escobar 0.3179
0.4274
(52.8)
0.4162
(57.1)
Carlos González 0.5980
0.4377
(112.3)
0.4590
(86.8)
José Bautista 0.6169
0.4110
(151.8)
0.3889
(154.0)
Pablo Sandoval 0.4085
0.5181
(57.4)
0.5159
(67.7)
Joey Votto 0.5996
0.5190
(62.9)
0.5000
(63.0)
Jim Thome 0.6268
0.4922
(51.3)
0.4321
(65.4)
Adrian Beltré 0.5535
0.4354
(86.1)
0.4540
(62.2)
Josh Hamilton 0.6332
0.4901
(91.0)
0.4877
(81.7)
Ben Zobrist 0.3530
0.4878
(77.5)
0.4426
(60.3)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Vernon Wells 0.4248 0.5153 69.0
2 Delmon Young 0.4152 0.4930 57.7
3 Buster Posey 0.3938 0.5049 56.5
4 Robinson Canó 0.4689 0.5335 56.4
5 Colby Rasmus 0.4112 0.4978 55.0
6 Troy Tulowitzki 0.4810 0.5681 54.7
7 Kelly Johnson 0.4323 0.4957 53.5
8 Justin Morneau 0.4909 0.6182 50.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Lee 0.5142 0.4165 65.0
2 Prince Fielder 0.5515 0.4706 59.6
3 Elvis Andrus 0.3868 0.3010 59.5
4 Alex Gonzalez 0.3537 0.4471 58.2
5 Jose Lopez 0.4295 0.3390 57.9
6 Raul Ibanez 0.5313 0.4439 57.2
7 Drew Stubbs 0.3479 0.4436 54.3
8 Garrett Jones 0.4943 0.4139 54.2

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Sean West 47
509
(462.0)
666
(619.0)
Mike Leake 604
1
(603.0)
1
(603.0)
Doug Davis 191
761
(570.0)
797
(606.0)
Jake Westbrook 860
267
(593.0)
231
(629.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Colby Lewis 114 844 730.0
2 Rodrigo Lopez 295 874 579.0
3 Jaime García 134 695 561.0
4 C.J. Wilson 290 850 560.0
5 Ian Kennedy 261 810 549.0
6 Tim Hudson 388 920 532.0
7 Mitch Talbot 168 696 528.0
8 Hisanori Takahashi 1 516 515.0
9 Jason Marquis 791 276 515.0
10 Brett Myers 425 936 511.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kevin Mulvey 714 17 697.0
2 Billy Buckner 766 72 694.0
3 Drew Carpenter 698 14 684.0
4 Matt Maloney 749 86 663.0
5 Evan MacLane 665 4 661.0
6 Josh Banks 671 24 647.0
7 Ian Snell 862 227 635.0
8 Samuel Deduno 633 12 621.0
9 Esmailin Caridad 643 23 620.0
10 Mitch Atkins 664 49 615.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Zach Duke 0.3788
0.3414
(32.4)
0.3036
(43.7)
Livan Hernandez 0.3114
0.3623
(39.3)
0.3312
(31.5)
Ricky Romero 0.3015
0.3449
(32.1)
0.3222
(31.8)
Rich Harden 0.3724
0.3049
(32.1)
0.2794
(33.4)
Trevor Cahill 0.2783
0.3451
(46.8)
0.3111
(37.7)
Jered Weaver 0.2749
0.3213
(35.7)
0.2942
(31.3)
Josh Beckett 0.3682
0.3075
(39.1)
0.2743
(45.4)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.4065
0.3174
(49.0)
0.2875
(52.9)
James Shields 0.3589
0.3237
(37.9)
0.2824
(55.1)
Scott Kazmir 0.3680
0.3254
(33.8)
0.2924
(41.1)
Javier Vazquez 0.3549
0.3004
(42.0)
0.2689
(48.2)
Gio González 0.2930
0.3577
(49.1)
0.3216
(37.4)
Dan Haren 0.3201
0.2944
(32.5)
0.2572
(47.3)
A.J. Burnett 0.3601
0.3202
(38.9)
0.2983
(38.6)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Myers 0.3453 0.3003 35.6
2 Clay Buchholz 0.3341 0.2790 34.2
3 R.A. Dickey 0.3455 0.2911 33.8
4 Mat Latos 0.3206 0.2685 33.7
5 Brad Bergesen 0.3202 0.3579 33.3
6 Félix Hernández 0.3035 0.2632 33.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Paul Maholm 0.2921 0.3533 38.6
2 Scott Feldman 0.2956 0.3674 36.2
3 Tim Lincecum 0.2456 0.2988 33.9
4 Charlie Morton 0.2875 0.3884 32.7
5 John Lackey 0.2866 0.3368 32.4
6 Joe Blanton 0.2880 0.3448 31.7

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Rich Harden 0.1744
0.2586
(38.7)
0.2687
(48.7)
Colby Lewis 0.2322
0.1754
(43.0)
0.1686
(37.7)
Jered Weaver 0.2575
0.1910
(54.8)
0.1827
(50.5)
Scott Kazmir 0.1364
0.2141
(57.0)
0.2158
(67.1)
Javier Vazquez 0.1772
0.2371
(45.0)
0.2264
(46.6)
Mat Latos 0.2527
0.1799
(50.0)
0.1616
(54.0)
Johan Santana 0.1763
0.2127
(34.6)
0.2374
(65.5)
Zack Greinke 0.1970
0.2284
(34.3)
0.2433
(60.0)
Carl Pavano 0.1291
0.1676
(40.2)
0.1488
(34.9)
A.J. Burnett 0.1749
0.2205
(42.7)
0.2072
(42.5)
Randy Wolf 0.1517
0.1883
(39.8)
0.1828
(46.8)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Marmol 0.2557 0.4157 51.1
2 Brandon Morrow 0.2087 0.2830 43.0
3 Billy Wagner 0.2288 0.3881 41.1
4 Francisco Liriano 0.1935 0.2494 40.3
5 Stephen Strasburg 0.1849 0.3358 39.7
6 Mitch Talbot 0.1726 0.1264 36.2
7 Joel Hanrahan 0.2128 0.3401 35.7
8 Roy Oswalt 0.1826 0.2306 35.3
9 Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.1585 0.0961 34.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tommy Hanson 0.2438 0.2047 49.0
2 Jhoulys Chacín 0.1352 0.2367 48.1
3 Jonny Venters 0.1209 0.2657 44.1
4 Ervin Santana 0.2008 0.1771 40.6
5 Paul Maholm 0.1499 0.1214 39.8
6 Tim Lincecum 0.2796 0.2575 36.8
7 Dan Haren 0.2336 0.2173 35.0
8 Jon Lester 0.2023 0.2613 34.5
9 Matt Belisle 0.1362 0.2493 34.4

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Cliff Lee 0.0214
0.0539
(26.5)
0.0509
(20.2)
Jon Garland 0.1039
0.0716
(28.0)
0.0642
(37.9)
R.A. Dickey 0.0589
0.0954
(25.2)
0.0951
(21.8)
Rich Harden 0.1442
0.1015
(18.8)
0.1007
(21.1)
Tommy Hanson 0.0663
0.0880
(17.4)
0.0937
(18.4)
Javier Vazquez 0.0952
0.0631
(22.6)
0.0575
(29.6)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Doug Fister 0.0763 0.0444 22.2
2 Shaun Marcum 0.0814 0.0537 21.2
3 Francisco Liriano 0.0993 0.0720 21.2
4 Mat Latos 0.0952 0.0668 20.4
5 Kris Medlen 0.0935 0.0479 19.5
6 Matt Cain 0.0898 0.0681 18.5
7 Jeff Karstens 0.0876 0.0514 18.4
8 Dontrelle Willis 0.1204 0.1772 18.3
9 Aníbal Sánchez 0.1059 0.0832 18.1
10 Roberto Hernandez 0.1032 0.0818 17.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jon Lester 0.0740 0.0964 24.1
2 Tim Hudson 0.0620 0.0804 22.1
3 CC Sabathia 0.0592 0.0763 21.9
4 Cole Hamels 0.0515 0.0713 21.7
5 Aaron Cook 0.0589 0.0909 21.5
6 Randy Wolf 0.0766 0.0929 20.5
7 Ryan Dempster 0.0776 0.0937 19.9
8 Travis Wood 0.1150 0.0621 19.8
9 Scott Kazmir 0.0932 0.1158 19.2
10 Kevin Correia 0.0756 0.0998 19.1

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Chad Gaudin 0.0271
0.0107
(4.9)
0.0000
(5.5)
Jason Vargas 0.0012
0.0075
(4.9)
0.0000
(5.8)
Rich Harden 0.0209
0.0082
(5.6)
0.0000
(5.4)
Tommy Hanson 0.0166
0.0094
(6.2)
0.0000
(7.0)
Jered Weaver 0.0000
0.0064
(5.6)
0.0000
(7.6)
Jason Marquis 0.0290
0.0076
(6.0)
0.0000
(5.7)
Brett Cecil 0.0014
0.0105
(6.5)
0.0000
(5.1)
Phil Hughes 0.0000
0.0113
(8.1)
0.0000
(6.1)
Brett Myers 0.0032
0.0094
(5.7)
0.0000
(4.8)
Scott Kazmir 0.0176
0.0076
(6.9)
0.0000
(6.3)
Jonny Venters 0.0229
0.0083
(5.1)
0.0000
(5.1)
Jeremy Guthrie 0.0183
0.0092
(8.1)
0.0000
(8.7)
A.J. Burnett 0.0229
0.0114
(9.7)
0.0000
(12.1)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dave Bush 0.0175 0.0051 9.5
2 Kyle Kendrick 0.0137 0.0039 7.4
3 Brandon Morrow 0.0031 0.0143 7.1
4 Jhoulys Chacín 0.0065 0.0154 5.3
5 Justin Germano 0.0085 0.0411 4.8
6 Carlos Monasterios 0.0083 0.0201 4.7
7 Wade LeBlanc 0.0109 0.0032 4.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0083 0.0050 7.1
2 Mark Buehrle 0.0000 0.0011 6.5
3 Cliff Lee 0.0000 0.0012 6.0
4 Carlos Marmol 0.0000 0.0241 5.2
5 Chris Carpenter 0.0000 0.0134 4.9
6 Johan Santana 0.0000 0.0024 4.8
7 Kyle Davies 0.0000 0.0024 4.8

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Francisco Liriano 0.0168
0.0417
(18.5)
0.0391
(16.1)
Brian Tallet 0.0766
0.0345
(15.7)
0.0307
(17.2)
Jason Vargas 0.0281
0.0461
(13.0)
0.0452
(12.0)
Rodrigo Lopez 0.0529
0.0360
(16.4)
0.0383
(14.8)
Felipe Paulino 0.0143
0.0530
(15.1)
0.0452
(11.7)
Juan Gutierrez 0.0751
0.0263
(12.5)
0.0287
(12.0)
James Shields 0.0518
0.0399
(12.5)
0.0382
(14.3)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.0610
0.0342
(14.6)
0.0347
(14.6)
Javier Vazquez 0.0653
0.0372
(20.5)
0.0369
(21.0)
Gio González 0.0257
0.0486
(17.9)
0.0456
(15.0)
Brett Myers 0.0291
0.0525
(20.1)
0.0568
(23.7)
Doug Fister 0.0221
0.0455
(15.5)
0.0448
(14.7)
Chad Gaudin 0.0766
0.0357
(12.6)
0.0357
(12.7)
Gavin Floyd 0.0240
0.0417
(12.6)
0.0448
(14.7)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0377 0.0165 16.2
2 Clay Buchholz 0.0416 0.0173 15.9
3 Jaime García 0.0408 0.0181 14.4
4 Chad Billingsley 0.0315 0.0141 12.6
5 Chris Carpenter 0.0194 0.0294 11.6
6 Brad Bergesen 0.0293 0.0428 11.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ian Kennedy 0.0308 0.0463 14.4
2 C.J. Wilson 0.0363 0.0173 14.1
3 Mark Buehrle 0.0400 0.0227 13.4
4 David Price 0.0428 0.0255 13.0
5 Zach Duke 0.0286 0.0432 12.3
6 Ted Lilly 0.0438 0.0561 11.5

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Yovani Gallardo 0.3236
0.2864
(31.8)
0.2837
(28.7)
Trevor Cahill 0.2357
0.2794
(32.3)
0.2734
(32.8)
Tim Hudson 0.2493
0.2917
(36.8)
0.2868
(38.4)
Scott Feldman 0.3273
0.2832
(29.8)
0.2569
(42.5)
Roy Oswalt 0.2531
0.2963
(34.1)
0.2956
(39.0)
Brandon Morrow 0.3425
0.2829
(39.0)
0.2787
(37.5)
James Shields 0.3408
0.2976
(41.1)
0.2823
(48.9)
Esmil Rogers 0.3853
0.2953
(30.8)
0.2934
(29.2)
Jonathan Sánchez 0.2516
0.2957
(33.9)
0.2931
(37.1)
John Lannan 0.3188
0.2753
(29.5)
0.2718
(27.6)
Kyle Lohse 0.3636
0.2943
(30.9)
0.2907
(29.6)
Gavin Floyd 0.3251
0.2784
(39.2)
0.2781
(34.2)
Bronson Arroyo 0.2391
0.2884
(41.3)
0.2733
(33.7)
Ian Kennedy 0.2556
0.2983
(32.7)
0.2937
(34.2)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Gio González 0.3195 0.2742 36.5
2 Félix Hernández 0.2983 0.2626 33.3
3 Carl Pavano 0.3183 0.2812 31.4
4 Livan Hernandez 0.3222 0.2865 29.8
5 Justin Masterson 0.2923 0.3245 27.7
6 Scott Baker 0.2876 0.3228 27.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Jackson 0.2753 0.3133 30.5
2 Dan Haren 0.2786 0.3110 28.1
3 Francisco Liriano 0.2934 0.3314 27.3
4 A.J. Burnett 0.2825 0.3185 26.4
5 Joe Blanton 0.2828 0.3208 25.8
6 Clay Buchholz 0.2922 0.2608 25.3

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Charlie Morton 0.2873
0.2231
(24.5)
0.2865
(26.3)
Justin Masterson 0.2660
0.2277
(30.7)
0.2921
(33.6)
Joe Blanton 0.2545
0.2222
(24.7)
0.2828
(30.4)
Edwin Jackson 0.2468
0.2175
(26.4)
0.2753
(35.6)
Brian Burres 0.1604
0.2404
(28.9)
0.3036
(27.2)
James Shields 0.2508
0.2163
(31.1)
0.2823
(32.9)
Jorge De La Rosa 0.1728
0.2229
(25.6)
0.2940
(27.2)
Roy Oswalt 0.1823
0.2203
(31.8)
0.2956
(37.8)
John Lannan 0.2495
0.2061
(27.9)
0.2718
(29.4)
Jeremy Guthrie 0.1722
0.2029
(26.7)
0.2748
(30.1)
Gavin Floyd 0.2583
0.2064
(41.4)
0.2781
(38.5)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Blake Hawksworth 0.2014 0.2804 32.3
2 Jason Vargas 0.2276 0.1881 32.0
3 Yovani Gallardo 0.1963 0.2339 30.2
4 Carl Pavano 0.2397 0.2078 28.9
5 Kyle Kendrick 0.2319 0.1954 28.1
6 Bronson Arroyo 0.2142 0.1835 27.0
7 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2196 0.1916 25.0
8 Félix Hernández 0.2322 0.2077 24.5
9 Jason Hammel 0.2299 0.2616 24.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.2210 0.2489 57.9
2 Scott Feldman 0.2569 0.2450 36.0
3 Rick Porcello 0.2776 0.2586 34.4
4 Jonathan Sánchez 0.2931 0.1830 34.2
5 Ian Kennedy 0.2937 0.1866 31.6
6 Clayton Richard 0.2810 0.2475 29.8
7 Sergio Santos 0.2210 0.2770 29.2
8 Tim Lincecum 0.2832 0.2469 28.5
9 Kevin Millwood 0.2943 0.2594 27.9

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
John Lackey 0.0874
0.0613
(26.0)
0.0000
(20.3)
Scott Baker 0.0970
0.0648
(24.8)
0.0000
(22.8)
Trevor Cahill 0.0347
0.0749
(30.0)
0.0000
(24.2)
Brandon Morrow 0.1151
0.0585
(36.8)
0.0000
(31.1)
Jorge De La Rosa 0.1049
0.0758
(15.9)
0.0000
(20.2)
Brian Burres 0.1194
0.0721
(17.8)
0.0000
(19.5)
Paul Maholm 0.0905
0.0708
(18.2)
0.0000
(21.0)
Brad Bergesen 0.0912
0.0705
(16.9)
0.0000
(19.2)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Gio González 0.0767 0.0457 24.7
2 Randy Wells 0.0502 0.0753 22.8
3 Kyle Davies 0.0583 0.0832 22.0
4 Max Scherzer 0.0764 0.0520 17.9
5 Vin Mazzaro 0.0745 0.0416 16.7
6 Brett Myers 0.0796 0.0600 16.6
7 Kyle Kendrick 0.0616 0.0805 16.0
8 Josh Johnson 0.0453 0.0643 15.6
9 Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.0707 0.0987 15.2
10 Phil Hughes 0.0763 0.0539 14.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0656 0.0633 40.9
2 Alex Sanabia 0.0656 0.0511 24.6
3 Tim Hudson 0.0000 0.0413 22.3
4 Scott Atchison 0.0656 0.0492 20.7
5 Kameron Loe 0.0656 0.0468 20.2
6 Ramon E Ramirez 0.0656 0.0637 19.1
7 Logan Ondrusek 0.0656 0.0517 19.1
8 Wilton Lopez 0.0656 0.0591 18.9
9 Alexi Ogando 0.0656 0.0265 17.9
10 Kyle Lohse 0.0000 0.1061 17.5

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Craig Stammen 0.0166
0.0054
(6.6)
0.0000
(5.6)
Chad Billingsley 0.0161
0.0081
(6.9)
0.0000
(7.7)
Tim Lincecum 0.0141
0.0058
(7.9)
0.0000
(6.7)
Charlie Haeger 0.0444
0.0074
(5.7)
0.0000
(5.7)
Ben Sheets 0.0219
0.0084
(7.1)
0.0000
(7.8)
Joel Pineiro 0.0203
0.0052
(9.9)
0.0000
(8.7)
Guillermo Mota 0.0305
0.0054
(5.8)
0.0000
(5.4)
Jair Jurrjens 0.0252
0.0103
(7.7)
0.0000
(9.3)
Octavio Dotel 0.0375
0.0123
(7.1)
0.0000
(8.6)
Esmil Rogers 0.0216
0.0052
(5.6)
0.0000
(5.0)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 David Price 0.0027 0.0122 8.6
2 Justin Verlander 0.0035 0.0114 7.7
3 Gio González 0.0128 0.0035 7.5
4 Trevor Cahill 0.0101 0.0017 6.2
5 Francisco Liriano 0.0026 0.0095 5.9
6 Jaime García 0.0106 0.0021 5.6
7 Colby Lewis 0.0125 0.0054 5.6
8 Ian Kennedy 0.0110 0.0037 5.6
9 Jason Hammel 0.0112 0.0036 5.5
10 Jorge De La Rosa 0.0108 0.0000 5.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0067 0.0023 6.7
2 Jeremy Bonderman 0.0000 0.0146 6.0
3 Ricky Romero 0.0000 0.0000 5.9
4 Kenshin Kawakami 0.0000 0.0208 5.5
5 Ian Snell 0.0000 0.0303 5.4
6 Matt Cain 0.0000 0.0127 5.4
7 Dallas Braden 0.0000 0.0000 5.2
8 Greg Smith 0.0000 0.0339 5.0
9 Tom Gorzelanny 0.0000 0.0149 4.9
10 Doug Fister 0.0000 0.0000 4.8

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Zach Duke 0.1575
0.1239
(27.5)
0.1322
(27.2)
Livan Hernandez 0.1038
0.1384
(27.4)
0.1502
(30.9)
David Price 0.0825
0.1241
(32.4)
0.1269
(28.0)
Charlie Morton 0.2068
0.1294
(31.1)
0.1139
(40.1)
R.A. Dickey 0.0870
0.1231
(22.9)
0.1356
(26.1)
Chad Qualls 0.1993
0.1066
(27.2)
0.1011
(31.0)
Josh Beckett 0.1542
0.1110
(27.3)
0.1155
(29.3)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.1843
0.1096
(40.2)
0.1144
(41.8)
James Shields 0.1424
0.1161
(27.3)
0.1133
(36.9)
Scott Kazmir 0.1510
0.1147
(27.5)
0.1188
(30.2)
Javier Vazquez 0.1406
0.1070
(25.7)
0.1034
(33.5)
Gio González 0.0881
0.1449
(44.9)
0.1389
(33.0)
A.J. Burnett 0.1423
0.1128
(27.8)
0.1234
(25.6)
Zack Greinke 0.1240
0.0914
(33.7)
0.0907
(41.7)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Clay Buchholz 0.1272 0.0774 32.6
2 Francisco Liriano 0.1370 0.0955 30.2
3 Mat Latos 0.1270 0.0842 29.0
4 Brad Bergesen 0.1092 0.1394 25.5
5 Kyle Lohse 0.1214 0.1740 24.4
6 Carl Pavano 0.1344 0.1049 23.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Haren 0.0904 0.1107 32.0
2 Paul Maholm 0.1219 0.1417 26.7
3 Brett Myers 0.1342 0.0940 26.4
4 Brian Duensing 0.1397 0.0785 26.3
5 Kevin Correia 0.1107 0.1388 25.8
6 Scott Feldman 0.1248 0.1529 25.7

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Livan Hernandez 0.0960
0.1330
(29.4)
0.1367
(27.2)
Charlie Morton 0.1754
0.1216
(22.1)
0.1042
(31.2)
David Price 0.0732
0.1111
(29.1)
0.1161
(28.0)
R.A. Dickey 0.0771
0.1169
(25.4)
0.1232
(25.5)
Jaime García 0.0705
0.1119
(25.9)
0.1174
(25.4)
Josh Beckett 0.1421
0.1044
(24.1)
0.1051
(27.4)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.1608
0.1002
(33.0)
0.1045
(34.0)
James Shields 0.1301
0.1061
(25.3)
0.1039
(32.9)
Scott Kazmir 0.1452
0.1070
(28.8)
0.1086
(32.0)
Javier Vazquez 0.1362
0.1005
(27.2)
0.0943
(35.7)
Gio González 0.0846
0.1327
(37.4)
0.1267
(27.0)
Brett Myers 0.0833
0.1176
(28.3)
0.1226
(27.0)
Clay Buchholz 0.0633
0.1193
(36.9)
0.1128
(27.8)
A.J. Burnett 0.1315
0.1052
(25.2)
0.1129
(24.0)
Zack Greinke 0.1110
0.0825
(30.0)
0.0832
(35.0)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nick Blackburn 0.1076 0.1402 25.4
2 Jonathan Sánchez 0.1165 0.0813 25.2
3 Mat Latos 0.1164 0.0802 24.0
4 Brad Bergesen 0.0998 0.1260 22.6
5 Trevor Cahill 0.1159 0.0830 22.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Haren 0.0829 0.1026 29.9
2 Kevin Correia 0.1012 0.1357 28.8
3 Tim Lincecum 0.0720 0.0903 25.7
4 Brian Duensing 0.1278 0.0710 24.8
5 Chad Qualls 0.0939 0.1708 24.5

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
David Price 0.5938
0.2222
(259.2)
0.3103
(225.1)
R.A. Dickey 0.4074
0.0968
(171.3)
0.1351
(178.5)
Kevin Millwood 0.1290
0.2632
(172.2)
0.3333
(190.5)
Trevor Cahill 0.6000
0.2143
(246.9)
0.3000
(217.7)
Brett Cecil 0.5357
0.2059
(188.3)
0.2414
(197.8)
Jon Lester 0.5938
0.3250
(170.8)
0.3939
(153.1)
Phil Hughes 0.5806
0.1316
(276.4)
0.1750
(280.1)
Tim Wakefield 0.1250
0.3226
(163.5)
0.4231
(195.2)
Gio González 0.4545
0.1765
(176.7)
0.2308
(171.8)
Carl Pavano 0.5313
0.2750
(168.3)
0.3158
(175.3)
C.J. Wilson 0.4545
0.0784
(259.8)
0.0758
(303.3)
Clay Buchholz 0.6071
0.2188
(226.1)
0.3548
(163.8)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2927 0.5758 190.1
2 Colby Lewis 0.0833 0.3750 186.7
3 Roy Halladay 0.3784 0.6364 186.2
4 Jaime García 0.1429 0.4643 174.4
5 Ervin Santana 0.2647 0.5152 171.7
6 Adam Wainwright 0.3590 0.6061 160.8
7 Francisco Liriano 0.1842 0.4516 158.8
8 Clayton Richard 0.1707 0.4242 157.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Myers 0.1818 0.4242 206.4
2 Dan Haren 0.5000 0.3429 178.0
3 Zack Greinke 0.4706 0.3030 174.1
4 Brandon Morrow 0.1000 0.3846 165.2
5 Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.3333 0.0370 162.3
6 Javier Vazquez 0.5313 0.3226 157.5
7 Tommy Hanson 0.4516 0.2941 151.6
8 Johan Santana 0.5333 0.3793 143.8

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Charlie Morton 0.7059
0.2941
(129.4)
0.3667
(135.2)
James Shields 0.4412
0.2308
(123.5)
0.2941
(145.4)
Scott Kazmir 0.5357
0.2222
(164.0)
0.2903
(177.4)
Joe Saunders 0.5152
0.1842
(226.9)
0.3548
(154.0)
Dallas Braden 0.4667
0.2222
(133.9)
0.3214
(124.9)
Doug Fister 0.5000
0.1667
(187.4)
0.3438
(123.1)
Zack Greinke 0.4242
0.2093
(130.4)
0.2647
(160.1)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rodrigo Lopez 0.1250 0.4848 250.7
2 Colby Lewis 0.0833 0.4063 210.9
3 Mitch Talbot 0.1250 0.4643 185.3
4 David Huff 0.2162 0.7333 163.9
5 Kevin Millwood 0.2632 0.5161 151.5
6 Wade LeBlanc 0.1724 0.4615 135.0
7 Paul Maholm 0.2368 0.4688 133.4
8 Randy Wells 0.2105 0.4375 129.8
9 Brian Matusz 0.1333 0.3750 128.1
10 Ross Ohlendorf 0.1905 0.5238 123.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.0303 0.2424 192.8
2 Justin Masterson 0.1860 0.3824 169.2
3 Félix Hernández 0.2059 0.3529 161.9
4 Max Scherzer 0.1724 0.3548 157.7
5 Hiroki Kuroda 0.2400 0.4194 157.2
6 Clayton Kershaw 0.1471 0.3125 152.8
7 Dan Haren 0.2059 0.3429 150.8
8 Andy Sonnanstine 0.4545 0.0244 147.5
9 Craig Stammen 0.3793 0.1143 140.7
10 Johnny Cueto 0.4194 0.2258 139.5

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Rafael Soriano 0.7031
0.2292
(117.3)
0.0000
(160.1)
Matt Capps 0.5676
0.3256
(80.2)
0.0000
(164.6)
John Axford 0.4800
0.0714
(102.3)
0.0000
(107.6)
Juan Carlos Oviedo 0.4412
0.1915
(73.1)
0.0000
(111.6)
Brian Wilson 0.6857
0.4400
(83.0)
0.0000
(204.6)
Kevin Gregg 0.5873
0.3077
(76.4)
0.0000
(142.1)
Heath Bell 0.7015
0.2400
(138.5)
0.0000
(193.3)
Billy Wagner 0.5211
0.2800
(70.3)
0.0000
(132.2)
Neftalí Feliz 0.5714
0.0952
(133.8)
0.0000
(146.2)
David Aardsma 0.5849
0.2653
(68.8)
0.0000
(112.5)
Carlos Marmol 0.4935
0.1071
(135.3)
0.0000
(154.6)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.2157 0.0000 165.4
2 Octavio Dotel 0.0426 0.3235 84.3
3 Chris Perez 0.0698 0.3651 82.3
4 Hisanori Takahashi 0.0278 0.1509 74.4
5 Brett Myers 0.1000 0.0000 73.9
6 Alfredo Simon 0.0476 0.3469 71.1
7 Jon Rauch 0.0926 0.3559 69.7
8 Brandon Morrow 0.1316 0.0000 69.5
9 Matt Lindstrom 0.1364 0.3966 68.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joakim Soria 0.0000 0.6515 168.4
2 Francisco Cordero 0.0000 0.5333 159.7
3 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.5692 155.4
4 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.5410 118.0
5 Ryan Franklin 0.0000 0.4576 113.5
6 Bobby Jenks 0.0000 0.4909 107.0
7 Jose Valverde 0.0000 0.4333 105.0
8 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0000 0.4717 104.8
9 Brad Lidge 0.0000 0.5400 98.9

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Kameron Loe 0.4151
0.1250
(79.4)
0.0492
(76.0)
Ryan Perry 0.3167
0.1143
(63.5)
0.0000
(69.8)
Daniel Bard 0.4384
0.1875
(86.0)
0.0000
(114.8)
Gil Meche 0.3000
0.0606
(78.7)
0.0000
(70.5)
Fernando Rodney 0.2917
0.0833
(76.7)
0.0000
(74.7)
Tyler Clippard 0.2949
0.1000
(89.1)
0.0000
(92.9)
Jonny Venters 0.3038
0.0492
(103.4)
0.0000
(89.1)
Mike Adams 0.5286
0.2424
(87.6)
0.0000
(128.5)
Luke Gregerson 0.5000
0.2791
(77.7)
0.0000
(133.9)
Clay Hensley 0.3235
0.1176
(75.7)
0.0000
(84.2)
Matt Belisle 0.2763
0.0909
(82.5)
0.0000
(82.9)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Phil Hughes 0.2105 0.0000 123.9
2 C.J. Wilson 0.1765 0.0000 115.4
3 Carlos Marmol 0.2857 0.0000 81.3
4 Ramon Pena 0.2264 0.0192 73.9
5 Andrew Cashner 0.0492 0.3019 72.8
6 Ian Kennedy 0.1304 0.0000 72.7
7 Jaime García 0.1429 0.0000 71.0
8 Sean Marshall 0.0976 0.2750 67.0
9 Takashi Saito 0.0488 0.3036 65.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joba Chamberlain 0.0000 0.3425 89.5
2 Kevin Jepsen 0.0000 0.3971 88.0
3 Scott Downs 0.0000 0.3881 81.7
4 Matt Guerrier 0.0000 0.3243 78.7
5 Joaquín Benoit 0.0000 0.3968 75.4
6 Hung-Chih Kuo 0.0000 0.3750 74.6
7 Arthur Rhodes 0.0000 0.3768 71.1
8 Kyle McClellan 0.0000 0.2794 70.7
9 Matt Thornton 0.0000 0.3443 70.5

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Livan Hernandez 3.6567
5.2878
(1345.7)
5.6654
(1328.2)
David Price 2.7173
4.3200
(1268.8)
4.6339
(1197.0)
Charlie Morton 7.5690
4.7897
(1111.0)
4.1159
(1520.2)
R.A. Dickey 2.8394
4.6721
(1214.7)
5.0400
(1193.8)
Chad Qualls 7.3220
3.7370
(1043.7)
3.5634
(1204.1)
Josh Beckett 5.7807
3.9344
(1139.8)
3.9629
(1352.5)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 6.7500
3.8393
(1550.3)
4.0527
(1644.0)
James Shields 5.1787
3.9990
(1176.7)
3.9367
(1589.7)
Scott Kazmir 5.9400
4.1557
(1305.0)
4.2579
(1506.2)
Javier Vazquez 5.3199
3.7420
(1165.9)
3.5255
(1585.1)
Gio González 3.2292
5.3818
(1721.9)
5.2143
(1241.4)
Brett Myers 3.1386
4.5547
(1204.5)
4.8324
(1092.8)
Clay Buchholz 2.3321
4.7203
(1606.2)
4.4628
(1140.8)
A.J. Burnett 5.2554
4.0820
(1079.8)
4.4617
(1094.3)
Zack Greinke 4.1727
3.0628
(1138.7)
3.1062
(1463.8)

Individual Misses for ERA

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jonathan Sánchez 4.5803 3.0724 1119.5
2 Trevor Cahill 4.5116 2.9746 1102.3
3 Mat Latos 4.4796 2.9242 1066.9
4 Jaime García 4.3548 2.7000 1060.3
5 Zach Duke 4.4278 5.7170 1035.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Haren 3.0439 3.9064 1380.5
2 Kevin Correia 3.9320 5.4000 1278.3
3 Tim Lincecum 2.6800 3.4333 1147.8
4 Brian Duensing 5.1830 2.6173 1091.1
5 Rich Harden 3.5714 5.5761 1088.3

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Marcel ZiPS
Zach Duke 1.6541
1.4118
(190.9)
1.4021
(249.7)
R.A. Dickey 1.1874
1.5027
(211.2)
1.5440
(190.0)
Rich Harden 1.6630
1.2664
(178.8)
1.2540
(214.7)
Trevor Cahill 1.1085
1.4203
(229.2)
1.4813
(221.4)
Josh Beckett 1.5352
1.2186
(193.8)
1.1903
(251.0)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 1.6921
1.3194
(199.8)
1.3083
(241.7)
James Shields 1.4607
1.2650
(193.1)
1.2106
(305.8)
Kyle Lohse 1.7826
1.3470
(196.0)
1.3987
(204.3)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ian Kennedy 1.4966 1.2010 223.9
2 Gio González 1.5731 1.3106 207.1
3 Félix Hernández 1.2756 1.0574 199.2
4 Livan Hernandez 1.5588 1.3228 194.2
5 Cliff Lee 1.2526 1.0031 194.1
6 Mat Latos 1.3575 1.0830 190.9
7 Jered Weaver 1.2968 1.0743 184.0
8 Roy Oswalt 1.2640 1.0252 183.9
9 Adam Wainwright 1.2652 1.0507 177.7
10 Roberto Hernandez 1.5264 1.3074 175.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Haren 1.0805 1.2723 280.3
2 Paul Maholm 1.3539 1.5647 252.8
3 Javier Vazquez 1.1561 1.3983 227.0
4 Scott Feldman 1.3533 1.5991 215.3
5 Scott Kazmir 1.3581 1.5800 212.8
6 Tim Lincecum 1.1333 1.2716 204.9
7 Aaron Harang 1.2719 1.5851 203.3
8 John Lackey 1.2945 1.4186 199.2
9 Dave Bush 1.3500 1.5086 194.3
10 Chad Qualls 1.2183 1.7966 187.8