2010 Projection Evaluation
Batting Projection Accuracy
Plate Appearances (PA)
Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 84 |
615
(531.0)
|
630
(546.0)
|
Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Jackson | 1 | 675 | 674.0 |
| 2 | Jason Heyward | 1 | 623 | 622.0 |
| 3 | Ike Davis | 1 | 601 | 600.0 |
| 4 | Brennan Boesch | 1 | 512 | 511.0 |
| 5 | Starlin Castro | 1 | 506 | 505.0 |
| 6 | Mike Jacobs | 489 | 28 | 461.0 |
| 7 | Jose Tabata | 1 | 441 | 440.0 |
| 8 | Willy Taveras | 472 | 37 | 435.0 |
| 9 | Mark DeRosa | 537 | 104 | 433.0 |
| 10 | Gaby Sanchez | 215 | 643 | 428.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kila Ka'aihue | 968 | 206 | 762.0 |
| 2 | Chris Carter | 660 | 78 | 582.0 |
| 3 | Mark Trumbo | 592 | 16 | 576.0 |
| 4 | Andrew Romine | 582 | 12 | 570.0 |
| 5 | Eric Sogard | 573 | 9 | 564.0 |
| 6 | Pedro Ciriaco | 550 | 6 | 544.0 |
| 7 | Mat Gamel | 552 | 17 | 535.0 |
| 8 | Mike Carp | 576 | 41 | 535.0 |
| 9 | Brandon Hicks | 540 | 6 | 534.0 |
| 10 | Juan Francisco | 589 | 59 | 530.0 |
wOBA
Everybody Missed for wOBA
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Konerko | 0.4201 |
0.3580
(46.9)
|
0.3611
(44.6)
|
| Joey Votto | 0.4411 |
0.3921
(39.7)
|
0.3832
(45.1)
|
| Josh Hamilton | 0.4468 |
0.3650
(53.7)
|
0.3655
(53.1)
|
| Robinson Canó | 0.3973 |
0.3523
(39.9)
|
0.3538
(38.4)
|
| Adrian Beltré | 0.3957 |
0.3305
(49.7)
|
0.3428
(41.4)
|
| José Bautista | 0.4228 |
0.3271
(73.7)
|
0.3218
(76.9)
|
| Aubrey Huff | 0.3889 |
0.3432
(38.8)
|
0.3439
(37.9)
|
| Carlos González | 0.4167 |
0.3312
(62.2)
|
0.3497
(50.1)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.4445 |
0.3939
(40.8)
|
0.3989
(37.1)
|
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.3231 |
0.3855
(30.9)
|
0.3870
(32.2)
|
| Vernon Wells | 0.3661 |
0.3276
(32.8)
|
0.3291
(31.4)
|
| Carlos Lee | 0.3102 |
0.3710
(31.4)
|
0.3784
(36.7)
|
Individual Misses for wOBA
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jason Heyward | 0.3267 | 0.3783 | 39.8 |
| 2 | Colby Rasmus | 0.3181 | 0.3730 | 35.9 |
| 3 | Kelly Johnson | 0.3386 | 0.3772 | 34.1 |
| 4 | Justin Morneau | 0.3689 | 0.4530 | 33.5 |
| 5 | Buster Posey | 0.3162 | 0.3752 | 31.6 |
| 6 | Carlos Ruiz | 0.3202 | 0.3784 | 30.5 |
| 7 | Ben Zobrist | 0.3718 | 0.3143 | 29.6 |
| 8 | Troy Tulowitzki | 0.3647 | 0.4078 | 29.3 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jim Thome | 0.3433 | 0.4418 | 37.5 |
| 2 | Austin Jackson | 0.2883 | 0.3296 | 35.8 |
| 3 | Brandon Wood | 0.3188 | 0.1674 | 34.0 |
| 4 | Ike Davis | 0.3075 | 0.3497 | 32.4 |
| 5 | Alex Gonzalez | 0.2823 | 0.3206 | 32.0 |
| 6 | Drew Stubbs | 0.2950 | 0.3375 | 31.6 |
| 7 | Wilson Betemit | 0.3016 | 0.3879 | 30.9 |
| 8 | Andres Torres | 0.3157 | 0.3564 | 29.9 |
Strikeout Rate
Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Ortiz | 0.2393 |
0.1793
(31.9)
|
0.1928
(26.7)
|
| Ryan Braun | 0.1533 |
0.1879
(28.7)
|
0.1947
(30.0)
|
| Colby Rasmus | 0.2772 |
0.1814
(47.3)
|
0.1948
(42.7)
|
| Adam Lind | 0.2349 |
0.1757
(31.8)
|
0.1862
(28.3)
|
| Adam LaRoche | 0.2797 |
0.2138
(36.1)
|
0.2253
(31.9)
|
| Delmon Young | 0.1321 |
0.1888
(39.2)
|
0.1953
(40.2)
|
| David Wright | 0.2403 |
0.1843
(32.7)
|
0.1988
(26.2)
|
| Michael Cuddyer | 0.1378 |
0.1727
(28.5)
|
0.1795
(29.8)
|
| Denard Span | 0.1050 |
0.1441
(32.7)
|
0.1558
(37.6)
|
| Jonny Gomes | 0.2154 |
0.2567
(27.7)
|
0.2747
(35.3)
|
Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.1797 | 0.3106 | 49.0 |
| 2 | Pedro Alvarez | 0.1797 | 0.3083 | 46.8 |
| 3 | Austin Jackson | 0.1797 | 0.2519 | 43.8 |
| 4 | Drew Stubbs | 0.2079 | 0.2882 | 42.6 |
| 5 | John Jaso | 0.1773 | 0.0965 | 35.6 |
| 6 | Adam Dunn | 0.2483 | 0.3071 | 33.4 |
| 7 | Austin Kearns | 0.1824 | 0.2516 | 28.6 |
| 8 | Buster Posey | 0.1806 | 0.1242 | 28.2 |
| 9 | Vladimir Guerrero | 0.1297 | 0.0933 | 28.0 |
| 10 | Andrew McCutchen | 0.1717 | 0.1363 | 27.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Bautista | 0.2295 | 0.1698 | 42.4 |
| 2 | Chase Headley | 0.2646 | 0.2062 | 41.0 |
| 3 | Ike Davis | 0.2945 | 0.2296 | 40.4 |
| 4 | Todd Helton | 0.1231 | 0.1903 | 30.6 |
| 5 | Kelly Johnson | 0.1732 | 0.2206 | 30.1 |
| 6 | Jhonny Peralta | 0.2138 | 0.1675 | 30.0 |
| 7 | Mark Reynolds | 0.3043 | 0.3540 | 28.2 |
| 8 | Matt Holliday | 0.1758 | 0.1378 | 27.3 |
| 9 | Adrián González | 0.2009 | 0.1645 | 26.9 |
| 10 | Hideki Matsui | 0.1267 | 0.1756 | 25.9 |
Walk Rate
Everybody Missed for Walk Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Scutaro | 0.0763 |
0.1088
(21.6)
|
0.1126
(25.0)
|
| Joey Votto | 0.1404 |
0.1080
(22.0)
|
0.1087
(20.8)
|
| Nick Swisher | 0.0913 |
0.1426
(31.6)
|
0.1412
(31.5)
|
| Daric Barton | 0.1603 |
0.1176
(30.4)
|
0.1210
(27.2)
|
| Robinson Canó | 0.0819 |
0.0530
(21.2)
|
0.0477
(24.0)
|
| Brian McCann | 0.1307 |
0.0867
(25.8)
|
0.0883
(24.2)
|
| José Bautista | 0.1464 |
0.1106
(25.5)
|
0.1179
(19.7)
|
| Aubrey Huff | 0.1243 |
0.0827
(28.8)
|
0.0806
(29.4)
|
| Jason Heyward | 0.1461 |
0.0868
(37.9)
|
0.0907
(34.7)
|
| José Reyes | 0.0514 |
0.0934
(24.4)
|
0.0957
(26.5)
|
| Mark Reynolds | 0.1393 |
0.1035
(22.2)
|
0.1070
(19.4)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.1373 |
0.0971
(27.1)
|
0.0996
(24.7)
|
| Adam Dunn | 0.1188 |
0.1628
(27.5)
|
0.1728
(34.8)
|
| Brett Gardner | 0.1388 |
0.0833
(32.5)
|
0.0974
(23.7)
|
| John Jaso | 0.1460 |
0.0837
(25.8)
|
0.0909
(22.4)
|
Individual Misses for Walk Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colby Rasmus | 0.0759 | 0.1180 | 23.3 |
| 2 | Prince Fielder | 0.1313 | 0.1597 | 21.4 |
| 3 | Julio Borbon | 0.0872 | 0.0406 | 21.1 |
| 4 | Ike Davis | 0.0868 | 0.1198 | 20.8 |
| 5 | Carlos Santana | 0.0868 | 0.1927 | 20.6 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J.D. Drew | 0.1553 | 0.1099 | 24.6 |
| 2 | Adam Jones | 0.0703 | 0.0370 | 20.4 |
| 3 | Geovany Soto | 0.1091 | 0.1602 | 19.9 |
| 4 | Ryan Howard | 0.1265 | 0.0952 | 19.2 |
| 5 | Adam LaRoche | 0.1092 | 0.0780 | 19.0 |
Hit By Pitch Rate
Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prince Fielder | 0.0294 |
0.0156
(10.2)
|
0.0160
(9.9)
|
| Brett Carroll | 0.0778 |
0.0142
(5.8)
|
0.0149
(5.7)
|
| Daniel Nava | 0.0426 |
0.0085
(6.5)
|
0.0085
(6.5)
|
| Travis Hafner | 0.0260 |
0.0122
(6.6)
|
0.0118
(6.8)
|
| Marlon Byrd | 0.0270 |
0.0148
(7.9)
|
0.0169
(6.6)
|
| Ryan Raburn | 0.0195 |
0.0055
(5.9)
|
0.0052
(6.1)
|
| Juan Pierre | 0.0286 |
0.0112
(13.1)
|
0.0128
(12.0)
|
| Alex Rodriguez | 0.0050 |
0.0193
(8.2)
|
0.0215
(9.5)
|
| Aubrey Huff | 0.0135 |
0.0054
(5.7)
|
0.0051
(5.9)
|
| Josh Wilson | 0.0309 |
0.0131
(7.1)
|
0.0183
(5.1)
|
| Jason Kendall | 0.0122 |
0.0235
(5.3)
|
0.0256
(6.3)
|
| Dan Uggla | 0.0030 |
0.0135
(6.8)
|
0.0129
(6.4)
|
| Lastings Milledge | 0.0073 |
0.0200
(5.0)
|
0.0209
(5.4)
|
| Brandon Inge | 0.0086 |
0.0199
(6.3)
|
0.0232
(8.1)
|
| Rod Barajas | 0.0236 |
0.0087
(5.2)
|
0.0086
(5.3)
|
Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rickie Weeks Jr. | 0.0206 | 0.0332 | 9.8 |
| 2 | Rubén Tejada | 0.0085 | 0.0314 | 5.9 |
| 3 | Fred Lewis | 0.0072 | 0.0187 | 5.8 |
| 4 | Brett Wallace | 0.0085 | 0.0440 | 5.7 |
| 5 | José Bautista | 0.0068 | 0.0146 | 5.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt LaPorta | 0.0213 | 0.0024 | 7.8 |
| 2 | Jason Heyward | 0.0060 | 0.0161 | 6.6 |
| 3 | Daric Barton | 0.0134 | 0.0044 | 5.9 |
| 4 | Mark Reynolds | 0.0067 | 0.0151 | 5.3 |
| 5 | Kevin Kouzmanoff | 0.0193 | 0.0102 | 5.0 |
Home Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Konerko | 0.0878 |
0.0599
(19.3)
|
0.0562
(21.1)
|
| Jason Bay | 0.0230 |
0.0693
(17.6)
|
0.0911
(26.6)
|
| Ben Zobrist | 0.0221 |
0.0577
(21.7)
|
0.0475
(15.4)
|
| Joey Votto | 0.0871 |
0.0582
(20.4)
|
0.0588
(19.5)
|
| Colby Rasmus | 0.0714 |
0.0401
(18.1)
|
0.0391
(18.3)
|
| Jim Thome | 0.1276 |
0.0870
(14.7)
|
0.0760
(18.2)
|
| Corey Hart | 0.0733 |
0.0427
(20.4)
|
0.0455
(18.2)
|
| José Bautista | 0.1182 |
0.0425
(53.4)
|
0.0459
(50.6)
|
| Carlos González | 0.0741 |
0.0393
(23.7)
|
0.0442
(20.2)
|
| Ryan Howard | 0.0783 |
0.1040
(14.4)
|
0.1183
(23.6)
|
| Vernon Wells | 0.0609 |
0.0346
(18.6)
|
0.0392
(15.2)
|
| Tyler Colvin | 0.0763 |
0.0323
(18.4)
|
0.0303
(18.9)
|
| Kelly Johnson | 0.0588 |
0.0319
(19.7)
|
0.0400
(13.9)
|
Individual Misses for Home Run Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.0367 | 0.0928 | 23.2 |
| 2 | Austin Jackson | 0.0367 | 0.0088 | 17.1 |
| 3 | Mark Reynolds | 0.0865 | 0.1092 | 15.1 |
| 4 | David Wright | 0.0471 | 0.0662 | 14.5 |
| 5 | Pedro Alvarez | 0.0367 | 0.0696 | 13.7 |
| 6 | Starlin Castro | 0.0367 | 0.0075 | 13.5 |
| 7 | Matt Kemp | 0.0461 | 0.0635 | 13.3 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Stubbs | 0.0256 | 0.0620 | 22.3 |
| 2 | Raul Ibanez | 0.0670 | 0.0348 | 19.3 |
| 3 | Evan Longoria | 0.0789 | 0.0478 | 19.3 |
| 4 | Jonny Gomes | 0.0791 | 0.0453 | 18.2 |
| 5 | Ryan Braun | 0.0752 | 0.0483 | 17.2 |
| 6 | Michael Cuddyer | 0.0511 | 0.0269 | 15.1 |
| 7 | Ryan Ludwick | 0.0734 | 0.0452 | 14.6 |
BABIP
Everybody Missed for BABIP
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Konerko | 0.3259 |
0.2706
(38.5)
|
0.2876
(30.5)
|
| Nick Swisher | 0.3325 |
0.2751
(40.0)
|
0.2857
(36.0)
|
| Colby Rasmus | 0.3512 |
0.2836
(39.1)
|
0.3035
(30.8)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.2954 |
0.3502
(32.8)
|
0.3607
(36.9)
|
| Carlos Ruiz | 0.3355 |
0.2635
(33.6)
|
0.2692
(33.0)
|
| Austin Kearns | 0.3441 |
0.2807
(31.8)
|
0.2898
(29.6)
|
| Justin Morneau | 0.3853 |
0.2893
(35.4)
|
0.2962
(34.5)
|
| Carlos González | 0.3835 |
0.3160
(46.6)
|
0.3125
(51.5)
|
| Mark Reynolds | 0.2567 |
0.3312
(41.0)
|
0.3302
(37.8)
|
| Dan Uggla | 0.3301 |
0.2906
(30.5)
|
0.2917
(32.6)
|
| Jay Bruce | 0.3343 |
0.2660
(42.4)
|
0.2831
(35.0)
|
| Rickie Weeks Jr. | 0.3318 |
0.2844
(40.1)
|
0.2918
(37.7)
|
| Austin Jackson | 0.3933 |
0.2971
(68.8)
|
0.3148
(59.8)
|
| Josh Hamilton | 0.3889 |
0.3192
(43.0)
|
0.3212
(44.3)
|
| Aaron Hill | 0.1952 |
0.2980
(56.3)
|
0.2951
(52.1)
|
| Carlos Pena | 0.2219 |
0.2837
(32.7)
|
0.2818
(29.1)
|
| Chris Johnson | 0.3868 |
0.2848
(39.0)
|
0.3028
(34.0)
|
Individual Misses for BABIP
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Cust | 0.3165 | 0.3868 | 32.3 |
| 2 | Carlos Lee | 0.2928 | 0.2376 | 32.1 |
| 3 | Adrian Beltré | 0.2888 | 0.3313 | 30.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Buck | 0.2704 | 0.3345 | 32.4 |
| 2 | Akinori Iwamura | 0.3455 | 0.2065 | 29.5 |
| 3 | Denard Span | 0.3408 | 0.2890 | 29.5 |
Single Rate
Everybody Missed for Single Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Swisher | 0.2432 |
0.1893
(35.7)
|
0.1971
(33.1)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.2203 |
0.2681
(30.3)
|
0.2670
(27.1)
|
| José Bautista | 0.1390 |
0.2014
(41.0)
|
0.1959
(34.7)
|
| Bobby Abreu | 0.1972 |
0.2450
(30.3)
|
0.2438
(27.0)
|
| Carlos González | 0.2824 |
0.2230
(39.2)
|
0.2201
(43.4)
|
| Delmon Young | 0.2138 |
0.2614
(27.7)
|
0.2625
(26.1)
|
| Dan Uggla | 0.2549 |
0.1966
(40.9)
|
0.2000
(41.1)
|
| Omar Infante | 0.3071 |
0.2444
(33.0)
|
0.2489
(32.5)
|
| Jay Bruce | 0.2550 |
0.1987
(33.6)
|
0.2078
(30.5)
|
| Rickie Weeks Jr. | 0.2500 |
0.1991
(40.2)
|
0.2060
(37.7)
|
| Austin Jackson | 0.2956 |
0.2225
(50.9)
|
0.2421
(40.1)
|
| John Buck | 0.2465 |
0.1864
(27.3)
|
0.1888
(27.9)
|
| Josh Hamilton | 0.2803 |
0.2345
(27.5)
|
0.2351
(29.3)
|
| Aaron Hill | 0.1429 |
0.2190
(42.7)
|
0.2178
(40.0)
|
| B.J. Upton | 0.1866 |
0.2391
(30.6)
|
0.2408
(29.4)
|
| Scott Podsednik | 0.2854 |
0.2422
(27.1)
|
0.2459
(27.1)
|
Individual Misses for Single Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Konerko | 0.1989 | 0.2494 | 33.3 |
| 2 | Elvis Andrus | 0.2308 | 0.2711 | 28.8 |
| 3 | Mark Reynolds | 0.2334 | 0.1839 | 28.1 |
| 4 | Mark Ellis | 0.2030 | 0.2559 | 27.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Young | 0.1738 | 0.2163 | 32.3 |
| 2 | Denard Span | 0.2780 | 0.2287 | 30.5 |
| 3 | Adrián González | 0.2114 | 0.2472 | 29.0 |
| 4 | Matt Diaz | 0.2946 | 0.1705 | 28.8 |
Double Rate
Everybody Missed for Double Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Edmonds | 0.1307 |
0.0654
(18.4)
|
0.0724
(16.7)
|
| Josh Hamilton | 0.1010 |
0.0749
(16.3)
|
0.0762
(15.9)
|
| Colby Rasmus | 0.0936 |
0.0627
(17.8)
|
0.0678
(15.4)
|
| Jerry Hairston | 0.0346 |
0.0725
(16.9)
|
0.0700
(15.4)
|
| Andres Torres | 0.1168 |
0.0645
(31.2)
|
0.0602
(33.9)
|
| Bobby Abreu | 0.0962 |
0.0743
(16.3)
|
0.0771
(14.7)
|
| Jayson Werth | 0.1183 |
0.0634
(37.3)
|
0.0671
(35.2)
|
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.1133 |
0.0804
(19.4)
|
0.0821
(18.7)
|
| Delmon Young | 0.0964 |
0.0625
(22.3)
|
0.0700
(18.0)
|
| Ronny Cedeno | 0.0799 |
0.0507
(15.9)
|
0.0485
(17.2)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.1064 |
0.0767
(20.8)
|
0.0811
(18.3)
|
| Adam Dunn | 0.1108 |
0.0799
(21.6)
|
0.0820
(20.5)
|
| Vernon Wells | 0.0921 |
0.0673
(17.5)
|
0.0695
(16.4)
|
| Scott Podsednik | 0.0300 |
0.0599
(16.3)
|
0.0656
(19.4)
|
Individual Misses for Double Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrian Beltré | 0.0736 | 0.1008 | 19.0 |
| 2 | Joe Mauer | 0.0686 | 0.0947 | 16.7 |
| 3 | James Loney | 0.0613 | 0.0842 | 16.4 |
| 4 | Travis Hafner | 0.0674 | 0.0993 | 15.8 |
| 5 | B.J. Upton | 0.0842 | 0.1058 | 14.6 |
| 6 | Omar Infante | 0.0677 | 0.0369 | 14.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Gonzalez | 0.0590 | 0.0911 | 22.4 |
| 2 | Nelson Cruz | 0.0693 | 0.1023 | 16.0 |
| 3 | Carlos Pena | 0.0893 | 0.0596 | 15.6 |
| 4 | David Ortiz | 0.0831 | 0.1043 | 14.7 |
| 5 | Kurt Suzuki | 0.0705 | 0.0412 | 14.3 |
| 6 | Brandon Wood | 0.0741 | 0.0125 | 14.2 |
Triple Rate
Everybody Missed for Triple Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Andrus | 0.0059 |
0.0165
(6.5)
|
0.0173
(7.1)
|
| Jason Bay | 0.0235 |
0.0086
(6.4)
|
0.0084
(6.5)
|
| Eric Patterson | 0.0413 |
0.0055
(7.5)
|
0.0121
(6.2)
|
| Logan Morrison | 0.0366 |
0.0069
(8.8)
|
0.0063
(9.0)
|
| Ryan Braun | 0.0020 |
0.0142
(7.7)
|
0.0135
(7.2)
|
| Evan Longoria | 0.0114 |
0.0026
(6.4)
|
0.0025
(6.5)
|
| Cliff Pennington | 0.0190 |
0.0086
(6.5)
|
0.0088
(6.4)
|
| Justin Upton | 0.0090 |
0.0204
(6.0)
|
0.0199
(5.7)
|
| Alcides Escobar | 0.0228 |
0.0098
(7.7)
|
0.0103
(7.4)
|
| Dexter Fowler | 0.0417 |
0.0222
(10.3)
|
0.0193
(11.8)
|
| Will Venable | 0.0273 |
0.0121
(7.2)
|
0.0107
(7.8)
|
| Chris Young | 0.0000 |
0.0120
(7.3)
|
0.0126
(7.7)
|
| Rafael Furcal | 0.0219 |
0.0096
(5.7)
|
0.0103
(5.4)
|
| Austin Jackson | 0.0222 |
0.0069
(10.9)
|
0.0097
(9.1)
|
| Melvin Mora | 0.0194 |
0.0027
(6.2)
|
0.0030
(6.1)
|
Individual Misses for Triple Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rickie Weeks Jr. | 0.0190 | 0.0091 | 6.8 |
| 2 | Wes Helms | 0.0000 | 0.0226 | 6.7 |
| 3 | Carl Crawford | 0.0183 | 0.0265 | 6.0 |
| 4 | Ben Zobrist | 0.0146 | 0.0045 | 6.0 |
| 5 | Tyler Colvin | 0.0067 | 0.0207 | 5.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ángel Pagán | 0.0293 | 0.0146 | 8.7 |
| 2 | Miguel Olivo | 0.0082 | 0.0224 | 6.5 |
| 3 | Drew Stubbs | 0.0079 | 0.0180 | 6.5 |
| 4 | Kevin Youkilis | 0.0055 | 0.0178 | 5.8 |
| 5 | Andres Torres | 0.0321 | 0.0217 | 5.4 |
Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Konerko | 0.1410 |
0.1175
(19.9)
|
0.1135
(23.1)
|
| Carl Crawford | 0.1659 |
0.1404
(22.2)
|
0.1398
(23.3)
|
| Drew Stubbs | 0.1561 |
0.1287
(20.6)
|
0.1207
(25.9)
|
| Joey Votto | 0.1636 |
0.1322
(25.5)
|
0.1324
(26.0)
|
| Aubrey Huff | 0.1497 |
0.1187
(26.0)
|
0.1201
(25.8)
|
| Carlos González | 0.1745 |
0.1328
(31.6)
|
0.1341
(31.4)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.1713 |
0.1311
(31.2)
|
0.1332
(30.5)
|
| Austin Jackson | 0.1526 |
0.1171
(29.3)
|
0.0978
(43.0)
|
| Josh Hamilton | 0.1664 |
0.1325
(23.9)
|
0.1323
(24.6)
|
| Chone Figgins | 0.0883 |
0.1473
(35.8)
|
0.1483
(35.8)
|
Individual Misses for Run Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Bautista | 0.1219 | 0.1596 | 31.2 |
| 2 | Martín Prado | 0.1263 | 0.1536 | 23.0 |
| 3 | Adam Lind | 0.1336 | 0.0930 | 20.0 |
| 4 | Hunter Pence | 0.1193 | 0.1413 | 19.7 |
| 5 | Brett Gardner | 0.1444 | 0.1705 | 19.3 |
| 6 | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.1352 | 0.1011 | 19.1 |
| 7 | Alex Rodriguez | 0.1644 | 0.1244 | 19.1 |
| 8 | Orlando Hudson | 0.1173 | 0.1431 | 18.9 |
| 9 | Howie Kendrick | 0.1383 | 0.1018 | 18.8 |
| 10 | Chris Young | 0.1214 | 0.1416 | 18.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nyjer Morgan | 0.1692 | 0.1040 | 32.5 |
| 2 | Ike Davis | 0.0880 | 0.1215 | 25.5 |
| 3 | Robinson Canó | 0.1262 | 0.1480 | 21.4 |
| 4 | Lance Berkman | 0.1517 | 0.0998 | 20.6 |
| 5 | Alex Rios | 0.1198 | 0.1442 | 20.6 |
| 6 | Adam Jones | 0.1640 | 0.1224 | 20.3 |
| 7 | Tyler Colvin | 0.1101 | 0.1519 | 20.1 |
| 8 | Nate McLouth | 0.1825 | 0.1042 | 20.0 |
| 9 | Michael Saunders | 0.1586 | 0.0887 | 19.9 |
| 10 | Kevin Youkilis | 0.1412 | 0.1770 | 19.5 |
RBI Rate
Everybody Missed for RBI Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prince Fielder | 0.1162 |
0.1672
(31.4)
|
0.2067
(56.3)
|
| Paul Konerko | 0.1759 |
0.1320
(32.1)
|
0.1294
(36.7)
|
| José Bautista | 0.1816 |
0.1106
(53.2)
|
0.1263
(45.7)
|
| Bengie Molina | 0.0865 |
0.1522
(24.4)
|
0.1770
(32.8)
|
| Brandon Phillips | 0.0859 |
0.1372
(30.5)
|
0.1452
(32.8)
|
| Delmon Young | 0.1827 |
0.1266
(38.7)
|
0.1356
(36.0)
|
| Carlos González | 0.1840 |
0.0952
(60.9)
|
0.1210
(47.4)
|
| Nick Markakis | 0.0846 |
0.1374
(32.5)
|
0.1474
(36.3)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.1944 |
0.1618
(25.7)
|
0.1611
(29.2)
|
| Troy Tulowitzki | 0.1796 |
0.1343
(27.7)
|
0.1331
(30.7)
|
Individual Misses for RBI Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corey Hart | 0.1248 | 0.1661 | 29.7 |
| 2 | Austin Jackson | 0.1116 | 0.0607 | 29.6 |
| 3 | Adrian Beltré | 0.1207 | 0.1591 | 29.1 |
| 4 | Erick Aybar | 0.1048 | 0.0492 | 28.6 |
| 5 | Robinson Canó | 0.1258 | 0.1566 | 26.3 |
| 6 | Chris Young | 0.1063 | 0.1370 | 25.1 |
| 7 | Vladimir Guerrero | 0.1473 | 0.1788 | 24.8 |
| 8 | Pedro Alvarez | 0.1116 | 0.1658 | 23.6 |
| 9 | Neil Walker | 0.0978 | 0.1407 | 23.4 |
| 10 | Joey Votto | 0.1453 | 0.1744 | 23.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Stubbs | 0.0777 | 0.1321 | 38.5 |
| 2 | Pablo Sandoval | 0.1705 | 0.1023 | 34.9 |
| 3 | Alex Gonzalez | 0.0973 | 0.1375 | 33.2 |
| 4 | Alex Rodriguez | 0.1667 | 0.2101 | 32.7 |
| 5 | Ian Desmond | 0.0702 | 0.1132 | 31.3 |
| 6 | Scott Rolen | 0.1121 | 0.1546 | 29.0 |
| 7 | Yuniesky Betancourt | 0.0955 | 0.1327 | 28.7 |
| 8 | Ryan Ludwick | 0.1873 | 0.1248 | 28.1 |
| 9 | Dan Uggla | 0.1262 | 0.1558 | 27.8 |
| 10 | Orlando Hudson | 0.1272 | 0.0662 | 27.6 |
Stolen Base Rate
Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cliff Pennington | 0.2071 |
0.0909
(68.0)
|
0.1078
(54.6)
|
| Jarrod Dyson | 0.8182 |
0.0649
(49.1)
|
0.0649
(48.7)
|
| Andres Torres | 0.2047 |
0.1045
(58.2)
|
0.1011
(56.4)
|
| Coco Crisp | 0.3765 |
0.1685
(68.8)
|
0.1935
(58.5)
|
| Will Venable | 0.2566 |
0.0645
(86.3)
|
0.0652
(83.1)
|
| Franklin Gutierrez | 0.1667 |
0.0935
(47.2)
|
0.0625
(62.6)
|
| Brandon Phillips | 0.0941 |
0.1583
(42.8)
|
0.1678
(53.8)
|
| Ángel Pagán | 0.2256 |
0.1250
(64.9)
|
0.1500
(44.9)
|
| Rafael Furcal | 0.1864 |
0.0927
(40.9)
|
0.0769
(44.9)
|
| Alex Rios | 0.2222 |
0.1460
(48.2)
|
0.1477
(43.2)
|
| B.J. Upton | 0.3088 |
0.2025
(66.0)
|
0.2096
(57.7)
|
Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Jackson | 0.0649 | 0.1467 | 56.6 |
| 2 | Peter Bourjos | 0.0649 | 0.3448 | 54.4 |
| 3 | Rickie Weeks Jr. | 0.1250 | 0.0521 | 53.5 |
| 4 | Corey Hart | 0.1327 | 0.0500 | 49.6 |
| 5 | Adrian Beltré | 0.0877 | 0.0129 | 46.7 |
| 6 | Drew Stubbs | 0.1316 | 0.2083 | 45.9 |
| 7 | Eric Young Jr. | 0.1000 | 0.3208 | 42.1 |
| 8 | Torii Hunter | 0.1190 | 0.0529 | 41.5 |
| 9 | Jose Tabata | 0.0649 | 0.1557 | 40.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Young | 0.0667 | 0.1687 | 64.7 |
| 2 | José Reyes | 0.3028 | 0.2113 | 58.0 |
| 3 | Julio Borbon | 0.2398 | 0.1210 | 57.8 |
| 4 | Jayson Nix | 0.1429 | 0.0139 | 48.5 |
| 5 | Rajai Davis | 0.2617 | 0.3497 | 46.8 |
| 6 | Alcides Escobar | 0.1534 | 0.0769 | 44.7 |
| 7 | Elvis Andrus | 0.2138 | 0.1546 | 43.0 |
| 8 | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.1250 | 0.1883 | 43.0 |
| 9 | Alex Rodriguez | 0.0943 | 0.0282 | 42.1 |
Batting Average
Everybody Missed for Batting Average
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Konerko | 0.3120 |
0.2614
(37.8)
|
0.2685
(31.5)
|
| Nick Swisher | 0.2880 |
0.2452
(33.1)
|
0.2427
(32.9)
|
| Nelson Cruz | 0.3183 |
0.2637
(28.5)
|
0.2697
(24.5)
|
| Matt Kemp | 0.2492 |
0.2962
(25.2)
|
0.3002
(29.7)
|
| Carlos Ruiz | 0.3019 |
0.2480
(27.4)
|
0.2515
(24.6)
|
| Adrian Beltré | 0.3209 |
0.2670
(40.5)
|
0.2762
(32.8)
|
| Carlos González | 0.3356 |
0.2659
(50.2)
|
0.2705
(45.5)
|
| Mark Reynolds | 0.1984 |
0.2562
(28.9)
|
0.2585
(32.0)
|
| Dan Uggla | 0.2869 |
0.2505
(30.8)
|
0.2458
(32.1)
|
| Rickie Weeks Jr. | 0.2688 |
0.2448
(25.1)
|
0.2395
(27.0)
|
| Austin Jackson | 0.2929 |
0.2612
(27.7)
|
0.2468
(35.5)
|
| Josh Hamilton | 0.3591 |
0.2857
(47.2)
|
0.2833
(47.0)
|
| Carlos Lee | 0.2463 |
0.2992
(28.3)
|
0.2976
(29.1)
|
| Aaron Hill | 0.2045 |
0.2807
(38.8)
|
0.2746
(36.9)
|
Individual Misses for Batting Average
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Butler | 0.2870 | 0.3176 | 27.1 |
| 2 | Buster Posey | 0.2539 | 0.3054 | 27.0 |
| 3 | Carlos Pena | 0.2511 | 0.1963 | 26.5 |
| 4 | Derek Jeter | 0.3143 | 0.2700 | 25.9 |
| 5 | Jay Bruce | 0.2451 | 0.2809 | 25.9 |
| 6 | Justin Morneau | 0.2808 | 0.3446 | 25.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Buck | 0.2208 | 0.2812 | 29.2 |
| 2 | Pablo Sandoval | 0.3199 | 0.2682 | 27.9 |
| 3 | José Bautista | 0.2271 | 0.2601 | 27.0 |
| 4 | Ike Davis | 0.2267 | 0.2639 | 26.2 |
| 5 | Chris Johnson | 0.2433 | 0.3079 | 25.7 |
| 6 | Adrián González | 0.2677 | 0.2978 | 25.4 |
On-Base Percentage
Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Konerko | 0.3930 |
0.3472
(35.2)
|
0.3528
(30.4)
|
| Joey Votto | 0.4244 |
0.3799
(35.2)
|
0.3735
(38.2)
|
| Josh Hamilton | 0.4105 |
0.3488
(40.9)
|
0.3475
(40.6)
|
| Robinson Canó | 0.3807 |
0.3377
(36.8)
|
0.3354
(37.2)
|
| Carlos Ruiz | 0.3995 |
0.3365
(31.6)
|
0.3429
(28.0)
|
| José Bautista | 0.3777 |
0.3341
(36.6)
|
0.3263
(40.6)
|
| Adrian Beltré | 0.3651 |
0.3185
(36.2)
|
0.3268
(29.7)
|
| Aubrey Huff | 0.3847 |
0.3333
(40.9)
|
0.3328
(40.1)
|
| Jason Heyward | 0.3933 |
0.3300
(45.6)
|
0.3448
(35.2)
|
| Carlos González | 0.3758 |
0.3241
(39.2)
|
0.3371
(29.8)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.4198 |
0.3754
(35.2)
|
0.3792
(31.5)
|
| Aramis Ramirez | 0.2939 |
0.3698
(33.5)
|
0.3702
(34.6)
|
| Carlos Lee | 0.2912 |
0.3497
(31.6)
|
0.3538
(35.4)
|
| Brett Gardner | 0.3830 |
0.3305
(35.5)
|
0.3295
(35.0)
|
Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daric Barton | 0.3446 | 0.3932 | 40.1 |
| 2 | Billy Butler | 0.3450 | 0.3879 | 35.8 |
| 3 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.3444 | 0.3881 | 32.3 |
| 4 | Justin Morneau | 0.3575 | 0.4368 | 31.0 |
| 5 | Colby Rasmus | 0.3156 | 0.3609 | 29.5 |
| 6 | Aaron Hill | 0.3299 | 0.2712 | 28.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Jackson | 0.3002 | 0.3452 | 35.9 |
| 2 | Ike Davis | 0.3021 | 0.3511 | 34.3 |
| 3 | Brandon Wood | 0.3016 | 0.1745 | 28.9 |
| 4 | Wilson Betemit | 0.2957 | 0.3778 | 28.4 |
| 5 | Adam Lind | 0.3412 | 0.2871 | 28.2 |
| 6 | Jim Thome | 0.3388 | 0.4118 | 27.6 |
Slugging Percentage
Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Konerko | 0.5839 |
0.4689
(86.3)
|
0.4649
(83.8)
|
| Joey Votto | 0.5996 |
0.5190
(66.3)
|
0.5000
(73.5)
|
| Josh Hamilton | 0.6332 |
0.4901
(94.1)
|
0.4877
(91.0)
|
| Colby Rasmus | 0.4978 |
0.4112
(57.8)
|
0.4110
(53.7)
|
| Jim Thome | 0.6268 |
0.4922
(53.1)
|
0.4321
(70.9)
|
| Adrian Beltré | 0.5535 |
0.4354
(89.6)
|
0.4540
(72.6)
|
| José Bautista | 0.6169 |
0.4110
(155.4)
|
0.3889
(165.1)
|
| Corey Hart | 0.5251 |
0.4605
(53.0)
|
0.4531
(52.7)
|
| Carlos González | 0.5980 |
0.4377
(115.7)
|
0.4590
(97.1)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.6223 |
0.5319
(72.6)
|
0.5361
(64.8)
|
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.4085 |
0.5181
(54.2)
|
0.5159
(57.7)
|
| Vernon Wells | 0.5153 |
0.4248
(72.4)
|
0.4300
(64.0)
|
| Carlos Pena | 0.4070 |
0.5291
(58.5)
|
0.5239
(60.0)
|
| Buster Posey | 0.5049 |
0.3938
(58.8)
|
0.3983
(53.3)
|
Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Zobrist | 0.4878 | 0.3530 | 74.0 |
| 2 | Delmon Young | 0.4152 | 0.4930 | 61.0 |
| 3 | Robinson Canó | 0.4689 | 0.5335 | 60.1 |
| 4 | Troy Tulowitzki | 0.4810 | 0.5681 | 57.6 |
| 5 | Kelly Johnson | 0.4323 | 0.4957 | 57.1 |
| 6 | Nick Swisher | 0.4499 | 0.5106 | 52.3 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Gonzalez | 0.3537 | 0.4471 | 68.5 |
| 2 | Drew Stubbs | 0.3479 | 0.4436 | 63.8 |
| 3 | Andres Torres | 0.3965 | 0.4793 | 55.0 |
| 4 | Carlos Lee | 0.5142 | 0.4165 | 54.4 |
| 5 | Casey McGehee | 0.3972 | 0.4639 | 53.9 |
| 6 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.3894 | 0.5070 | 52.0 |
Pitching Projection Accuracy
Batters Faced (BF)
Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Davis | 191 |
761
(570.0)
|
797
(606.0)
|
| Mike Leake | 604 |
1
(603.0)
|
1
(603.0)
|
| Sean West | 47 |
509
(462.0)
|
666
(619.0)
|
| Jake Westbrook | 860 |
267
(593.0)
|
231
(629.0)
|
Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colby Lewis | 114 | 844 | 730.0 |
| 2 | Rodrigo Lopez | 295 | 874 | 579.0 |
| 3 | Jaime García | 134 | 695 | 561.0 |
| 4 | C.J. Wilson | 290 | 850 | 560.0 |
| 5 | Ian Kennedy | 261 | 810 | 549.0 |
| 6 | Tim Hudson | 388 | 920 | 532.0 |
| 7 | Mitch Talbot | 168 | 696 | 528.0 |
| 8 | Hisanori Takahashi | 1 | 516 | 515.0 |
| 9 | Jason Marquis | 791 | 276 | 515.0 |
| 10 | Brett Myers | 425 | 936 | 511.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Mulvey | 714 | 17 | 697.0 |
| 2 | Billy Buckner | 766 | 72 | 694.0 |
| 3 | Drew Carpenter | 698 | 14 | 684.0 |
| 4 | Matt Maloney | 749 | 86 | 663.0 |
| 5 | Evan MacLane | 665 | 4 | 661.0 |
| 6 | Josh Banks | 671 | 24 | 647.0 |
| 7 | Ian Snell | 862 | 227 | 635.0 |
| 8 | Samuel Deduno | 633 | 12 | 621.0 |
| 9 | Esmailin Caridad | 643 | 23 | 620.0 |
| 10 | Mitch Atkins | 664 | 49 | 615.0 |
wOBA
Everybody Missed for wOBA
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Oswalt | 0.2700 |
0.3140
(32.6)
|
0.2862
(31.0)
|
| Brett Myers | 0.3003 |
0.3453
(37.4)
|
0.3151
(33.4)
|
| Rich Harden | 0.3724 |
0.3049
(31.2)
|
0.2794
(31.0)
|
| Jered Weaver | 0.2749 |
0.3213
(37.4)
|
0.2942
(36.4)
|
| R.A. Dickey | 0.2911 |
0.3455
(35.1)
|
0.3189
(34.7)
|
| Javier Vazquez | 0.3549 |
0.3004
(40.7)
|
0.2689
(44.4)
|
| Josh Beckett | 0.3682 |
0.3075
(38.0)
|
0.2743
(42.2)
|
| Ryan Rowland-Smith | 0.4065 |
0.3174
(48.0)
|
0.2875
(50.0)
|
| A.J. Burnett | 0.3601 |
0.3202
(37.3)
|
0.2983
(34.0)
|
| James Shields | 0.3589 |
0.3237
(36.2)
|
0.2824
(50.1)
|
| Ricky Romero | 0.3015 |
0.3449
(33.7)
|
0.3222
(36.7)
|
| Gio González | 0.2930 |
0.3577
(50.7)
|
0.3216
(42.1)
|
| Trevor Cahill | 0.2783 |
0.3451
(48.3)
|
0.3111
(42.0)
|
| Livan Hernandez | 0.3114 |
0.3623
(41.0)
|
0.3312
(36.5)
|
| Scott Kazmir | 0.3680 |
0.3254
(32.6)
|
0.2924
(37.3)
|
Individual Misses for wOBA
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Buchholz | 0.3341 | 0.2790 | 35.5 |
| 2 | Félix Hernández | 0.3035 | 0.2632 | 35.1 |
| 3 | Mat Latos | 0.3206 | 0.2685 | 35.1 |
| 4 | Brad Bergesen | 0.3202 | 0.3579 | 31.9 |
| 5 | Francisco Liriano | 0.3435 | 0.2991 | 31.6 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Haren | 0.2572 | 0.3201 | 41.8 |
| 2 | Zach Duke | 0.3036 | 0.3788 | 39.7 |
| 3 | David Price | 0.3062 | 0.2860 | 35.4 |
| 4 | Paul Maholm | 0.2921 | 0.3533 | 33.9 |
| 5 | Scott Feldman | 0.2956 | 0.3674 | 32.6 |
Strikeout Rate
Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Oswalt | 0.2306 |
0.1826
(36.9)
|
0.1786
(33.9)
|
| Rich Harden | 0.1744 |
0.2586
(37.9)
|
0.2687
(45.4)
|
| Mat Latos | 0.2527 |
0.1799
(51.5)
|
0.1616
(59.6)
|
| Jered Weaver | 0.2575 |
0.1910
(56.5)
|
0.1827
(57.3)
|
| Jon Lester | 0.2613 |
0.2157
(35.9)
|
0.2023
(40.9)
|
| Randy Wolf | 0.1517 |
0.1883
(38.0)
|
0.1828
(39.8)
|
| Brandon Morrow | 0.2830 |
0.2087
(44.2)
|
0.2126
(37.1)
|
| Javier Vazquez | 0.1772 |
0.2371
(43.7)
|
0.2264
(41.5)
|
| Colby Lewis | 0.2322 |
0.1754
(44.6)
|
0.1686
(44.0)
|
| A.J. Burnett | 0.1749 |
0.2205
(41.1)
|
0.2072
(36.3)
|
| Scott Kazmir | 0.1364 |
0.2141
(55.7)
|
0.2158
(62.0)
|
| Carlos Marmol | 0.4157 |
0.2557
(51.8)
|
0.2978
(35.3)
|
Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Liriano | 0.1935 | 0.2494 | 41.9 |
| 2 | Billy Wagner | 0.2288 | 0.3881 | 41.6 |
| 3 | Stephen Strasburg | 0.1849 | 0.3358 | 40.2 |
| 4 | Carl Pavano | 0.1676 | 0.1291 | 38.5 |
| 5 | Joel Hanrahan | 0.2128 | 0.3401 | 36.3 |
| 6 | Adam Wainwright | 0.1913 | 0.2341 | 35.4 |
| 7 | Mitch Talbot | 0.1726 | 0.1264 | 34.9 |
| 8 | Rafael Betancourt | 0.2146 | 0.3589 | 34.8 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johan Santana | 0.2374 | 0.1763 | 59.3 |
| 2 | Zack Greinke | 0.2433 | 0.1970 | 53.1 |
| 3 | Jhoulys Chacín | 0.1352 | 0.2367 | 52.5 |
| 4 | Jonny Venters | 0.1209 | 0.2657 | 46.7 |
| 5 | Tommy Hanson | 0.2438 | 0.2047 | 42.7 |
| 6 | Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.1860 | 0.2394 | 37.5 |
| 7 | Matt Belisle | 0.1362 | 0.2493 | 37.1 |
| 8 | Sean Marshall | 0.1719 | 0.2932 | 33.7 |
Walk Rate
Everybody Missed for Walk Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Marcum | 0.0537 |
0.0814
(22.0)
|
0.0747
(16.3)
|
| Rich Harden | 0.1442 |
0.1015
(18.4)
|
0.1007
(18.9)
|
| R.A. Dickey | 0.0589 |
0.0954
(25.9)
|
0.0951
(25.3)
|
| Cliff Lee | 0.0214 |
0.0539
(27.3)
|
0.0509
(24.4)
|
| Jon Garland | 0.1039 |
0.0716
(27.1)
|
0.0642
(33.8)
|
| Javier Vazquez | 0.0952 |
0.0631
(21.9)
|
0.0575
(26.2)
|
| Tommy Hanson | 0.0663 |
0.0880
(18.3)
|
0.0937
(22.6)
|
| Wilton Lopez | 0.0191 |
0.0872
(17.8)
|
0.0850
(17.1)
|
| Aníbal Sánchez | 0.0832 |
0.1059
(19.0)
|
0.1064
(19.0)
|
Individual Misses for Walk Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doug Fister | 0.0763 | 0.0444 | 22.9 |
| 2 | Francisco Liriano | 0.0993 | 0.0720 | 22.0 |
| 3 | Mat Latos | 0.0952 | 0.0668 | 21.2 |
| 4 | Kris Medlen | 0.0935 | 0.0479 | 19.9 |
| 5 | Matt Cain | 0.0898 | 0.0681 | 19.4 |
| 6 | Jeff Karstens | 0.0876 | 0.0514 | 18.9 |
| 7 | Roberto Hernandez | 0.1032 | 0.0818 | 18.7 |
| 8 | Roy Halladay | 0.0487 | 0.0302 | 18.2 |
| 9 | Dontrelle Willis | 0.1204 | 0.1772 | 18.0 |
| 10 | Dallas Braden | 0.0782 | 0.0551 | 18.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Wood | 0.1150 | 0.0621 | 21.9 |
| 2 | Brandon Morrow | 0.1388 | 0.1049 | 20.9 |
| 3 | Jon Lester | 0.0740 | 0.0964 | 19.8 |
| 4 | Aaron Cook | 0.0589 | 0.0909 | 18.7 |
| 5 | Rick Porcello | 0.0815 | 0.0543 | 18.6 |
| 6 | Tim Hudson | 0.0620 | 0.0804 | 17.6 |
| 7 | Cole Hamels | 0.0515 | 0.0713 | 17.4 |
| 8 | CC Sabathia | 0.0592 | 0.0763 | 17.1 |
| 9 | Josh Beckett | 0.0508 | 0.0780 | 16.0 |
| 10 | John Axford | 0.1812 | 0.1134 | 16.0 |
Hit By Pitch Rate
Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rich Harden | 0.0209 |
0.0082
(5.5)
|
0.0000
(5.6)
|
| Jered Weaver | 0.0000 |
0.0064
(5.7)
|
0.0000
(7.3)
|
| Phil Hughes | 0.0000 |
0.0113
(8.2)
|
0.0000
(5.9)
|
| Jonny Venters | 0.0229 |
0.0083
(5.1)
|
0.0000
(5.2)
|
| Jason Vargas | 0.0012 |
0.0075
(5.0)
|
0.0000
(5.5)
|
| Tommy Hanson | 0.0166 |
0.0094
(6.2)
|
0.0000
(7.2)
|
| Jeremy Guthrie | 0.0183 |
0.0092
(8.0)
|
0.0000
(9.0)
|
| A.J. Burnett | 0.0229 |
0.0114
(9.6)
|
0.0000
(12.3)
|
| Chad Gaudin | 0.0271 |
0.0107
(4.9)
|
0.0000
(5.6)
|
| Jason Marquis | 0.0290 |
0.0076
(5.9)
|
0.0000
(5.8)
|
| Brett Cecil | 0.0014 |
0.0105
(6.6)
|
0.0000
(4.8)
|
| Scott Kazmir | 0.0176 |
0.0076
(6.8)
|
0.0000
(6.5)
|
Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dave Bush | 0.0175 | 0.0051 | 9.6 |
| 2 | Kyle Kendrick | 0.0137 | 0.0039 | 7.5 |
| 3 | Brandon Morrow | 0.0031 | 0.0143 | 7.1 |
| 4 | Brett Myers | 0.0094 | 0.0032 | 5.7 |
| 5 | Jhoulys Chacín | 0.0065 | 0.0154 | 5.3 |
| 6 | Justin Germano | 0.0085 | 0.0411 | 4.8 |
| 7 | Wade LeBlanc | 0.0109 | 0.0032 | 4.7 |
| 8 | Justin Verlander | 0.0117 | 0.0065 | 4.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Leake | 0.0083 | 0.0050 | 6.9 |
| 2 | Mark Buehrle | 0.0000 | 0.0011 | 6.2 |
| 3 | Cliff Lee | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 5.8 |
| 4 | Carlos Marmol | 0.0000 | 0.0241 | 5.3 |
| 5 | Chris Carpenter | 0.0000 | 0.0134 | 5.2 |
| 6 | Carlos Monasterios | 0.0000 | 0.0201 | 4.8 |
| 7 | Ramon E Ramirez | 0.0083 | 0.0000 | 4.6 |
| 8 | Justin Masterson | 0.0000 | 0.0137 | 4.6 |
Home Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime García | 0.0181 |
0.0408
(14.6)
|
0.0369
(12.1)
|
| Brett Myers | 0.0291 |
0.0525
(20.3)
|
0.0568
(24.6)
|
| Brian Tallet | 0.0766 |
0.0345
(15.6)
|
0.0307
(16.8)
|
| Doug Fister | 0.0221 |
0.0455
(15.6)
|
0.0448
(15.4)
|
| Felipe Paulino | 0.0143 |
0.0530
(15.2)
|
0.0452
(12.1)
|
| Javier Vazquez | 0.0653 |
0.0372
(20.3)
|
0.0369
(20.3)
|
| Jason Vargas | 0.0281 |
0.0461
(13.2)
|
0.0452
(12.7)
|
| Gavin Floyd | 0.0240 |
0.0417
(12.8)
|
0.0448
(15.5)
|
| Ryan Rowland-Smith | 0.0610 |
0.0342
(14.5)
|
0.0347
(14.1)
|
| Juan Gutierrez | 0.0751 |
0.0263
(12.5)
|
0.0287
(11.8)
|
| Chad Gaudin | 0.0766 |
0.0357
(12.5)
|
0.0357
(12.5)
|
| Gio González | 0.0257 |
0.0486
(18.1)
|
0.0456
(15.7)
|
| Rodrigo Lopez | 0.0529 |
0.0360
(16.2)
|
0.0383
(14.0)
|
| James Shields | 0.0518 |
0.0399
(12.2)
|
0.0382
(13.5)
|
| Francisco Liriano | 0.0168 |
0.0417
(18.7)
|
0.0391
(16.9)
|
Individual Misses for Home Run Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aníbal Sánchez | 0.0377 | 0.0165 | 16.4 |
| 2 | Clay Buchholz | 0.0416 | 0.0173 | 16.0 |
| 3 | Chad Billingsley | 0.0315 | 0.0141 | 12.9 |
| 4 | Barry Enright | 0.0343 | 0.0604 | 11.4 |
| 5 | Chris Carpenter | 0.0194 | 0.0294 | 11.3 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Wilson | 0.0363 | 0.0173 | 14.9 |
| 2 | Mark Buehrle | 0.0400 | 0.0227 | 14.3 |
| 3 | David Price | 0.0428 | 0.0255 | 13.8 |
| 4 | Ian Kennedy | 0.0308 | 0.0463 | 13.7 |
| 5 | Zach Duke | 0.0286 | 0.0432 | 11.6 |
BABIP
Everybody Missed for BABIP
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Oswalt | 0.2531 |
0.2963
(34.6)
|
0.2956
(40.2)
|
| Yovani Gallardo | 0.3236 |
0.2864
(31.4)
|
0.2837
(27.6)
|
| Brandon Morrow | 0.3425 |
0.2829
(38.6)
|
0.2787
(36.6)
|
| Jonathan Sánchez | 0.2516 |
0.2957
(34.3)
|
0.2931
(38.3)
|
| Kyle Lohse | 0.3636 |
0.2943
(30.7)
|
0.2907
(29.0)
|
| Bronson Arroyo | 0.2391 |
0.2884
(41.7)
|
0.2733
(35.0)
|
| Esmil Rogers | 0.3853 |
0.2953
(30.6)
|
0.2934
(28.7)
|
| Gavin Floyd | 0.3251 |
0.2784
(38.8)
|
0.2781
(33.1)
|
| John Lannan | 0.3188 |
0.2753
(29.2)
|
0.2718
(26.7)
|
| James Shields | 0.3408 |
0.2976
(40.6)
|
0.2823
(47.7)
|
| Trevor Cahill | 0.2357 |
0.2794
(32.7)
|
0.2734
(33.9)
|
| Tim Hudson | 0.2493 |
0.2917
(37.3)
|
0.2868
(39.7)
|
| Livan Hernandez | 0.2865 |
0.3222
(30.2)
|
0.3097
(25.7)
|
| Scott Feldman | 0.3273 |
0.2832
(29.5)
|
0.2569
(41.6)
|
| Ian Kennedy | 0.2556 |
0.2983
(33.1)
|
0.2937
(35.3)
|
Individual Misses for BABIP
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gio González | 0.3195 | 0.2742 | 37.0 |
| 2 | Félix Hernández | 0.2983 | 0.2626 | 33.8 |
| 3 | Carl Pavano | 0.3183 | 0.2812 | 31.9 |
| 4 | Justin Masterson | 0.2923 | 0.3245 | 27.3 |
| 5 | Jon Garland | 0.2995 | 0.2653 | 27.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edwin Jackson | 0.2753 | 0.3133 | 29.3 |
| 2 | Dan Haren | 0.2786 | 0.3110 | 26.7 |
| 3 | Clay Buchholz | 0.2922 | 0.2608 | 26.3 |
| 4 | Francisco Liriano | 0.2934 | 0.3314 | 26.2 |
| 5 | A.J. Burnett | 0.2825 | 0.3185 | 25.3 |
Single Rate
Everybody Missed for Single Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Oswalt | 0.1823 |
0.2203
(31.9)
|
0.2956
(41.3)
|
| Justin Masterson | 0.2660 |
0.2277
(30.6)
|
0.2921
(30.3)
|
| Jorge De La Rosa | 0.1728 |
0.2229
(25.7)
|
0.2940
(29.3)
|
| Edwin Jackson | 0.2468 |
0.2175
(26.3)
|
0.2753
(31.9)
|
| Gavin Floyd | 0.2583 |
0.2064
(41.4)
|
0.2781
(35.2)
|
| Jeremy Guthrie | 0.1722 |
0.2029
(26.8)
|
0.2748
(33.8)
|
| James Shields | 0.2508 |
0.2163
(31.0)
|
0.2823
(29.2)
|
| Joe Blanton | 0.2545 |
0.2222
(24.6)
|
0.2828
(27.2)
|
| Brian Burres | 0.1604 |
0.2404
(29.0)
|
0.3036
(28.7)
|
| John Lannan | 0.2495 |
0.2061
(27.9)
|
0.2718
(26.8)
|
Individual Misses for Single Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blake Hawksworth | 0.2014 | 0.2804 | 32.3 |
| 2 | Jason Vargas | 0.2276 | 0.1881 | 32.1 |
| 3 | Yovani Gallardo | 0.1963 | 0.2339 | 30.1 |
| 4 | Carl Pavano | 0.2397 | 0.2078 | 29.0 |
| 5 | Kyle Kendrick | 0.2319 | 0.1954 | 28.2 |
| 6 | Bronson Arroyo | 0.2142 | 0.1835 | 27.1 |
| 7 | Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.2196 | 0.1916 | 25.1 |
| 8 | Félix Hernández | 0.2322 | 0.2077 | 24.6 |
| 9 | Charlie Morton | 0.2231 | 0.2873 | 24.5 |
| 10 | Cliff Lee | 0.2375 | 0.2087 | 24.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Leake | 0.2210 | 0.2489 | 55.4 |
| 2 | Jonathan Sánchez | 0.2931 | 0.1830 | 37.6 |
| 3 | Ian Kennedy | 0.2937 | 0.1866 | 35.0 |
| 4 | Scott Feldman | 0.2569 | 0.2450 | 33.3 |
| 5 | Rick Porcello | 0.2776 | 0.2586 | 31.4 |
| 6 | Sergio Santos | 0.2210 | 0.2770 | 28.2 |
| 7 | Matt Cain | 0.2719 | 0.1772 | 27.6 |
| 8 | Brad Bergesen | 0.2887 | 0.1893 | 26.5 |
| 9 | Clayton Richard | 0.2810 | 0.2475 | 26.2 |
| 10 | Brett Cecil | 0.3068 | 0.2071 | 26.0 |
Double Rate
Everybody Missed for Double Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Bergesen | 0.0912 |
0.0705
(16.7)
|
0.0000
(21.0)
|
| John Lackey | 0.0874 |
0.0613
(25.8)
|
0.0000
(22.7)
|
| Brandon Morrow | 0.1151 |
0.0585
(36.6)
|
0.0000
(32.7)
|
| Jorge De La Rosa | 0.1049 |
0.0758
(15.8)
|
0.0000
(21.5)
|
| Scott Baker | 0.0970 |
0.0648
(24.6)
|
0.0000
(24.6)
|
| Paul Maholm | 0.0905 |
0.0708
(18.0)
|
0.0000
(23.1)
|
| Ryan Rowland-Smith | 0.0987 |
0.0707
(15.1)
|
0.0000
(18.2)
|
| Brian Burres | 0.1194 |
0.0721
(17.7)
|
0.0000
(20.4)
|
| Trevor Cahill | 0.0347 |
0.0749
(30.2)
|
0.0000
(22.2)
|
| Tim Hudson | 0.0413 |
0.0590
(14.7)
|
0.0000
(20.0)
|
Individual Misses for Double Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gio González | 0.0767 | 0.0457 | 24.9 |
| 2 | Randy Wells | 0.0502 | 0.0753 | 22.6 |
| 3 | Kyle Davies | 0.0583 | 0.0832 | 21.8 |
| 4 | Max Scherzer | 0.0764 | 0.0520 | 18.1 |
| 5 | Vin Mazzaro | 0.0745 | 0.0416 | 16.8 |
| 6 | Brett Myers | 0.0796 | 0.0600 | 16.8 |
| 7 | Kyle Kendrick | 0.0616 | 0.0805 | 15.9 |
| 8 | Josh Johnson | 0.0453 | 0.0643 | 15.4 |
| 9 | Phil Hughes | 0.0763 | 0.0539 | 15.1 |
| 10 | R.A. Dickey | 0.0641 | 0.0418 | 14.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Leake | 0.0656 | 0.0633 | 39.4 |
| 2 | Alex Sanabia | 0.0656 | 0.0511 | 23.8 |
| 3 | Scott Atchison | 0.0656 | 0.0492 | 20.1 |
| 4 | Kameron Loe | 0.0656 | 0.0468 | 19.6 |
| 5 | Kyle Lohse | 0.0000 | 0.1061 | 18.5 |
| 6 | Logan Ondrusek | 0.0656 | 0.0517 | 18.4 |
| 7 | Ramon E Ramirez | 0.0656 | 0.0637 | 18.4 |
| 8 | Yovani Gallardo | 0.0000 | 0.0858 | 18.3 |
| 9 | Wilton Lopez | 0.0656 | 0.0591 | 18.2 |
| 10 | Alexi Ogando | 0.0656 | 0.0265 | 17.4 |
Triple Rate
Everybody Missed for Triple Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jair Jurrjens | 0.0252 |
0.0103
(7.6)
|
0.0000
(9.4)
|
| David Price | 0.0122 |
0.0027
(8.4)
|
0.0000
(5.0)
|
| Joel Pineiro | 0.0203 |
0.0052
(9.7)
|
0.0000
(8.8)
|
| Tim Lincecum | 0.0141 |
0.0058
(7.7)
|
0.0000
(6.9)
|
| Octavio Dotel | 0.0375 |
0.0123
(7.1)
|
0.0000
(8.7)
|
| Guillermo Mota | 0.0305 |
0.0054
(5.8)
|
0.0000
(5.5)
|
| Esmil Rogers | 0.0216 |
0.0052
(5.6)
|
0.0000
(5.1)
|
| Ben Sheets | 0.0219 |
0.0084
(7.0)
|
0.0000
(7.9)
|
| Charlie Haeger | 0.0444 |
0.0074
(5.6)
|
0.0000
(5.7)
|
| Craig Stammen | 0.0166 |
0.0054
(6.4)
|
0.0000
(5.7)
|
| Chad Billingsley | 0.0161 |
0.0081
(6.7)
|
0.0000
(7.9)
|
Individual Misses for Triple Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gio González | 0.0128 | 0.0035 | 7.7 |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | 0.0035 | 0.0114 | 7.5 |
| 3 | Trevor Cahill | 0.0101 | 0.0017 | 6.4 |
| 4 | Francisco Liriano | 0.0026 | 0.0095 | 5.8 |
| 5 | Jaime García | 0.0106 | 0.0021 | 5.8 |
| 6 | Colby Lewis | 0.0125 | 0.0054 | 5.8 |
| 7 | Ian Kennedy | 0.0110 | 0.0037 | 5.7 |
| 8 | Jason Hammel | 0.0112 | 0.0036 | 5.6 |
| 9 | Carl Pavano | 0.0118 | 0.0055 | 5.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Leake | 0.0067 | 0.0023 | 6.5 |
| 2 | Jeremy Bonderman | 0.0000 | 0.0146 | 6.2 |
| 3 | Ricky Romero | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 5.7 |
| 4 | Kenshin Kawakami | 0.0000 | 0.0208 | 5.6 |
| 5 | Matt Cain | 0.0000 | 0.0127 | 5.6 |
| 6 | Ian Snell | 0.0000 | 0.0303 | 5.4 |
| 7 | Tom Gorzelanny | 0.0000 | 0.0149 | 5.1 |
| 8 | Dallas Braden | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 5.0 |
| 9 | Greg Smith | 0.0000 | 0.0339 | 5.0 |
Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Duke | 0.1575 |
0.1239
(26.4)
|
0.1322
(23.7)
|
| Brett Myers | 0.0940 |
0.1224
(24.1)
|
0.1342
(31.0)
|
| R.A. Dickey | 0.0870 |
0.1231
(23.9)
|
0.1356
(29.6)
|
| Carl Pavano | 0.1049 |
0.1344
(24.4)
|
0.1405
(25.9)
|
| Charlie Morton | 0.2068 |
0.1294
(30.6)
|
0.1139
(38.2)
|
| David Price | 0.0825 |
0.1241
(33.6)
|
0.1269
(32.2)
|
| Zack Greinke | 0.1240 |
0.0914
(32.4)
|
0.0907
(37.1)
|
| Clay Buchholz | 0.0774 |
0.1272
(33.6)
|
0.1241
(28.2)
|
| Javier Vazquez | 0.1406 |
0.1070
(24.7)
|
0.1034
(30.2)
|
| Josh Beckett | 0.1542 |
0.1110
(26.5)
|
0.1155
(26.5)
|
| Ryan Rowland-Smith | 0.1843 |
0.1096
(39.5)
|
0.1144
(39.3)
|
| James Shields | 0.1424 |
0.1161
(26.0)
|
0.1133
(32.5)
|
| Gio González | 0.0881 |
0.1449
(46.1)
|
0.1389
(37.2)
|
| Chad Qualls | 0.1993 |
0.1066
(26.8)
|
0.1011
(29.6)
|
| Livan Hernandez | 0.1038 |
0.1384
(28.7)
|
0.1502
(35.3)
|
| Scott Kazmir | 0.1510 |
0.1147
(26.6)
|
0.1188
(26.8)
|
Individual Misses for Run Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Liriano | 0.1370 | 0.0955 | 31.3 |
| 2 | Mat Latos | 0.1270 | 0.0842 | 30.0 |
| 3 | A.J. Burnett | 0.1128 | 0.1423 | 26.7 |
| 4 | Brad Bergesen | 0.1092 | 0.1394 | 24.5 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Duensing | 0.1397 | 0.0785 | 28.9 |
| 2 | Dan Haren | 0.0904 | 0.1107 | 27.2 |
| 3 | Trevor Cahill | 0.1306 | 0.0932 | 23.7 |
| 4 | Tim Stauffer | 0.1329 | 0.0552 | 23.0 |
Earned Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime García | 0.0705 |
0.1119
(26.9)
|
0.1174
(28.5)
|
| Brett Myers | 0.0833 |
0.1176
(29.5)
|
0.1226
(31.2)
|
| R.A. Dickey | 0.0771 |
0.1169
(26.4)
|
0.1232
(28.7)
|
| Charlie Morton | 0.1754 |
0.1216
(21.6)
|
0.1042
(29.5)
|
| David Price | 0.0732 |
0.1111
(30.3)
|
0.1161
(31.9)
|
| Zack Greinke | 0.1110 |
0.0825
(28.8)
|
0.0832
(30.9)
|
| Clay Buchholz | 0.0633 |
0.1193
(37.8)
|
0.1128
(31.0)
|
| Javier Vazquez | 0.1362 |
0.1005
(26.3)
|
0.0943
(32.7)
|
| Josh Beckett | 0.1421 |
0.1044
(23.3)
|
0.1051
(24.8)
|
| Ryan Rowland-Smith | 0.1608 |
0.1002
(32.3)
|
0.1045
(31.7)
|
| Gio González | 0.0846 |
0.1327
(38.5)
|
0.1267
(30.8)
|
| James Shields | 0.1301 |
0.1061
(24.1)
|
0.1039
(28.9)
|
| Trevor Cahill | 0.0830 |
0.1159
(23.6)
|
0.1208
(25.0)
|
| Livan Hernandez | 0.0960 |
0.1330
(30.6)
|
0.1367
(31.2)
|
| Scott Kazmir | 0.1452 |
0.1070
(27.9)
|
0.1086
(29.0)
|
Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Sánchez | 0.1165 | 0.0813 | 26.3 |
| 2 | Mat Latos | 0.1164 | 0.0802 | 25.0 |
| 3 | Nick Blackburn | 0.1076 | 0.1402 | 24.5 |
| 4 | A.J. Burnett | 0.1052 | 0.1315 | 24.1 |
| 5 | Josh Johnson | 0.0963 | 0.0632 | 22.6 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Duensing | 0.1278 | 0.0710 | 27.2 |
| 2 | Kevin Correia | 0.1012 | 0.1357 | 25.9 |
| 3 | Dan Haren | 0.0829 | 0.1026 | 25.5 |
| 4 | Jonny Venters | 0.1275 | 0.0514 | 24.5 |
| 5 | Chad Qualls | 0.0939 | 0.1708 | 23.3 |
Win Rate
Everybody Missed for Win Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime García | 0.4643 |
0.1429
(183.9)
|
0.2500
(150.9)
|
| Ervin Santana | 0.5152 |
0.2647
(184.7)
|
0.3571
(153.4)
|
| R.A. Dickey | 0.4074 |
0.0968
(181.0)
|
0.1351
(196.1)
|
| Carl Pavano | 0.5313 |
0.2750
(180.7)
|
0.3158
(197.8)
|
| Phil Hughes | 0.5806 |
0.1316
(286.3)
|
0.1750
(298.2)
|
| Jon Lester | 0.5938 |
0.3250
(182.5)
|
0.3939
(174.5)
|
| David Price | 0.5938 |
0.2222
(271.0)
|
0.3103
(246.4)
|
| Clay Buchholz | 0.6071 |
0.2188
(235.7)
|
0.3548
(181.4)
|
| Brett Cecil | 0.5357 |
0.2059
(198.2)
|
0.2414
(215.7)
|
| Gio González | 0.4545 |
0.1765
(188.3)
|
0.2308
(192.8)
|
| C.J. Wilson | 0.4545 |
0.0784
(271.4)
|
0.0758
(324.4)
|
| Trevor Cahill | 0.6000 |
0.2143
(257.5)
|
0.3000
(237.1)
|
| Clayton Richard | 0.4242 |
0.1707
(169.4)
|
0.2500
(152.5)
|
Individual Misses for Win Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.2927 | 0.5758 | 202.3 |
| 2 | Roy Halladay | 0.3784 | 0.6364 | 199.8 |
| 3 | Colby Lewis | 0.0833 | 0.3750 | 198.2 |
| 4 | Adam Wainwright | 0.3590 | 0.6061 | 173.1 |
| 5 | Francisco Liriano | 0.1842 | 0.4516 | 169.7 |
| 6 | Tim Hudson | 0.2609 | 0.5000 | 167.7 |
| 7 | CC Sabathia | 0.3947 | 0.6176 | 161.1 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Myers | 0.1818 | 0.4242 | 229.5 |
| 2 | Brandon Morrow | 0.1000 | 0.3846 | 180.8 |
| 3 | Tim Wakefield | 0.4231 | 0.1250 | 180.1 |
| 4 | Kevin Millwood | 0.3333 | 0.1290 | 169.6 |
| 5 | Bruce Chen | 0.1111 | 0.3636 | 155.2 |
| 6 | Dan Haren | 0.5000 | 0.3429 | 153.4 |
| 7 | Zack Greinke | 0.4706 | 0.3030 | 151.4 |
Loss Rate
Everybody Missed for Loss Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | 0.7059 |
0.2941
(132.7)
|
0.3667
(134.1)
|
| Justin Masterson | 0.3824 |
0.1628
(124.4)
|
0.1860
(166.9)
|
| Zack Greinke | 0.4242 |
0.2093
(138.4)
|
0.2647
(157.4)
|
| Dallas Braden | 0.4667 |
0.2222
(140.6)
|
0.3214
(122.6)
|
| James Shields | 0.4412 |
0.2308
(131.3)
|
0.2941
(142.8)
|
| Joe Saunders | 0.5152 |
0.1842
(234.6)
|
0.3548
(151.4)
|
| Scott Kazmir | 0.5357 |
0.2222
(169.9)
|
0.2903
(175.4)
|
Individual Misses for Loss Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodrigo Lopez | 0.1250 | 0.4848 | 258.2 |
| 2 | Colby Lewis | 0.0833 | 0.4063 | 218.2 |
| 3 | Doug Fister | 0.1667 | 0.5000 | 193.6 |
| 4 | Mitch Talbot | 0.1250 | 0.4643 | 191.3 |
| 5 | David Huff | 0.2162 | 0.7333 | 167.1 |
| 6 | Kevin Millwood | 0.2632 | 0.5161 | 158.8 |
| 7 | Paul Maholm | 0.2368 | 0.4688 | 140.7 |
| 8 | Wade LeBlanc | 0.1724 | 0.4615 | 140.5 |
| 9 | Randy Wells | 0.2105 | 0.4375 | 137.1 |
| 10 | Brian Matusz | 0.1333 | 0.3750 | 134.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Wilson | 0.0303 | 0.2424 | 190.3 |
| 2 | Félix Hernández | 0.2059 | 0.3529 | 159.0 |
| 3 | Max Scherzer | 0.1724 | 0.3548 | 155.4 |
| 4 | Hiroki Kuroda | 0.2400 | 0.4194 | 154.8 |
| 5 | Clayton Kershaw | 0.1471 | 0.3125 | 150.3 |
| 6 | Andy Sonnanstine | 0.4545 | 0.0244 | 148.5 |
| 7 | Dan Haren | 0.2059 | 0.3429 | 147.9 |
| 8 | Craig Stammen | 0.3793 | 0.1143 | 142.3 |
| 9 | Johnny Cueto | 0.4194 | 0.2258 | 141.8 |
| 10 | Brian Duensing | 0.3125 | 0.0566 | 130.6 |
Save Rate
Everybody Missed for Save Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos Oviedo | 0.4412 |
0.1915
(73.0)
|
0.0000
(111.9)
|
| Neftalí Feliz | 0.5714 |
0.0952
(133.6)
|
0.0000
(146.5)
|
| Heath Bell | 0.7015 |
0.2400
(138.3)
|
0.0000
(193.7)
|
| Billy Wagner | 0.5211 |
0.2800
(70.1)
|
0.0000
(132.5)
|
| David Aardsma | 0.5849 |
0.2653
(68.7)
|
0.0000
(112.7)
|
| Kevin Gregg | 0.5873 |
0.3077
(76.2)
|
0.0000
(142.4)
|
| Matt Capps | 0.5676 |
0.3256
(80.1)
|
0.0000
(165.0)
|
| John Axford | 0.4800 |
0.0714
(102.1)
|
0.0000
(107.9)
|
| Rafael Soriano | 0.7031 |
0.2292
(117.2)
|
0.0000
(160.3)
|
| Brian Wilson | 0.6857 |
0.4400
(82.8)
|
0.0000
(204.9)
|
| Carlos Marmol | 0.4935 |
0.1071
(135.1)
|
0.0000
(155.0)
|
Individual Misses for Save Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Wilson | 0.2157 | 0.0000 | 165.9 |
| 2 | Octavio Dotel | 0.0426 | 0.3235 | 84.1 |
| 3 | Chris Perez | 0.0698 | 0.3651 | 82.1 |
| 4 | Brett Myers | 0.1000 | 0.0000 | 74.4 |
| 5 | Hisanori Takahashi | 0.0278 | 0.1509 | 74.1 |
| 6 | Alfredo Simon | 0.0476 | 0.3469 | 71.0 |
| 7 | Brandon Morrow | 0.1316 | 0.0000 | 69.8 |
| 8 | Jon Rauch | 0.0926 | 0.3559 | 69.6 |
| 9 | Matt Lindstrom | 0.1364 | 0.3966 | 68.5 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joakim Soria | 0.0000 | 0.6515 | 168.7 |
| 2 | Francisco Cordero | 0.0000 | 0.5333 | 160.1 |
| 3 | Jonathan Papelbon | 0.0000 | 0.5692 | 155.7 |
| 4 | Mariano Rivera | 0.0000 | 0.5410 | 118.3 |
| 5 | Ryan Franklin | 0.0000 | 0.4576 | 113.8 |
| 6 | Bobby Jenks | 0.0000 | 0.4909 | 107.2 |
| 7 | Jose Valverde | 0.0000 | 0.4333 | 105.3 |
| 8 | Francisco Rodríguez | 0.0000 | 0.4717 | 105.0 |
| 9 | Brad Lidge | 0.0000 | 0.5400 | 99.1 |
Hold Rate
Everybody Missed for Hold Rate
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Bard | 0.4384 |
0.1875
(84.4)
|
0.0000
(115.4)
|
| Gil Meche | 0.3000 |
0.0606
(77.2)
|
0.0000
(71.0)
|
| Tyler Clippard | 0.2949 |
0.1000
(87.0)
|
0.0000
(93.6)
|
| Matt Belisle | 0.2763 |
0.0909
(80.6)
|
0.0000
(83.6)
|
| Fernando Rodney | 0.2917 |
0.0833
(75.1)
|
0.0000
(75.3)
|
| Kameron Loe | 0.4151 |
0.1250
(78.1)
|
0.0492
(76.5)
|
| Jonny Venters | 0.3038 |
0.0492
(101.5)
|
0.0000
(89.8)
|
| Clay Hensley | 0.3235 |
0.1176
(74.1)
|
0.0000
(84.8)
|
| Mike Adams | 0.5286 |
0.2424
(86.2)
|
0.0000
(129.0)
|
| Luke Gregerson | 0.5000 |
0.2791
(76.1)
|
0.0000
(134.5)
|
Individual Misses for Hold Rate
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phil Hughes | 0.2105 | 0.0000 | 127.9 |
| 2 | C.J. Wilson | 0.1765 | 0.0000 | 120.0 |
| 3 | Carlos Marmol | 0.2857 | 0.0000 | 83.1 |
| 4 | Ian Kennedy | 0.1304 | 0.0000 | 77.0 |
| 5 | Ramon Pena | 0.2264 | 0.0192 | 76.3 |
| 6 | Jaime García | 0.1429 | 0.0000 | 74.7 |
| 7 | Andrew Cashner | 0.0492 | 0.3019 | 71.4 |
| 8 | Sean Marshall | 0.0976 | 0.2750 | 65.3 |
| 9 | Takashi Saito | 0.0488 | 0.3036 | 64.1 |
| 10 | Mitch Talbot | 0.1250 | 0.0000 | 62.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joba Chamberlain | 0.0000 | 0.3425 | 90.0 |
| 2 | Kevin Jepsen | 0.0000 | 0.3971 | 88.5 |
| 3 | Scott Downs | 0.0000 | 0.3881 | 82.1 |
| 4 | Matt Guerrier | 0.0000 | 0.3243 | 79.2 |
| 5 | Joaquín Benoit | 0.0000 | 0.3968 | 75.9 |
| 6 | Hung-Chih Kuo | 0.0000 | 0.3750 | 75.1 |
| 7 | Arthur Rhodes | 0.0000 | 0.3768 | 71.5 |
| 8 | Kyle McClellan | 0.0000 | 0.2794 | 71.3 |
| 9 | Matt Thornton | 0.0000 | 0.3443 | 71.0 |
| 10 | Ryan Perry | 0.0000 | 0.3167 | 70.3 |
ERA
Everybody Missed for ERA
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime García | 2.7000 |
4.3548
(1101.4)
|
4.7487
(1219.7)
|
| Brett Myers | 3.1386 |
4.5547
(1259.9)
|
4.8324
(1310.5)
|
| R.A. Dickey | 2.8394 |
4.6721
(1256.8)
|
5.0400
(1359.6)
|
| Charlie Morton | 7.5690 |
4.7897
(1088.5)
|
4.1159
(1431.3)
|
| David Price | 2.7173 |
4.3200
(1319.7)
|
4.6339
(1397.3)
|
| Zack Greinke | 4.1727 |
3.0628
(1084.4)
|
3.1062
(1250.1)
|
| Clay Buchholz | 2.3321 |
4.7203
(1648.2)
|
4.4628
(1306.1)
|
| Javier Vazquez | 5.3199 |
3.7420
(1125.6)
|
3.5255
(1426.2)
|
| Josh Beckett | 5.7807 |
3.9344
(1105.7)
|
3.9629
(1218.3)
|
| Ryan Rowland-Smith | 6.7500 |
3.8393
(1520.2)
|
4.0527
(1525.4)
|
| James Shields | 5.1787 |
3.9990
(1123.6)
|
3.9367
(1380.6)
|
| Gio González | 3.2292 |
5.3818
(1772.2)
|
5.2143
(1439.3)
|
| Chad Qualls | 7.3220 |
3.7370
(1027.1)
|
3.5634
(1138.7)
|
| Trevor Cahill | 2.9746 |
4.5116
(1148.6)
|
4.8734
(1256.8)
|
| Livan Hernandez | 3.6567 |
5.2878
(1398.7)
|
5.6654
(1536.6)
|
| Scott Kazmir | 5.9400 |
4.1557
(1264.7)
|
4.2579
(1347.5)
|
Individual Misses for ERA
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Sánchez | 4.5803 | 3.0724 | 1167.5 |
| 2 | Mat Latos | 4.4796 | 2.9242 | 1111.1 |
| 3 | Roberto Hernandez | 5.0261 | 3.7655 | 1047.7 |
| 4 | A.J. Burnett | 4.0820 | 5.2554 | 1030.8 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Duensing | 5.1830 | 2.6173 | 1215.5 |
| 2 | Dan Haren | 3.0439 | 3.9064 | 1149.3 |
| 3 | Kevin Correia | 3.9320 | 5.4000 | 1129.2 |
| 4 | Jonny Venters | 5.4187 | 1.9518 | 1110.6 |
WHIP
Everybody Missed for WHIP
| Player | Actual | Marcel | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Duke | 1.6541 |
1.4118
(183.2)
|
1.4021
(213.4)
|
| Roy Oswalt | 1.0252 |
1.2640
(192.7)
|
1.2865
(184.9)
|
| Rich Harden | 1.6630 |
1.2664
(174.2)
|
1.2540
(193.2)
|
| Jered Weaver | 1.0743 |
1.2968
(193.6)
|
1.3204
(186.2)
|
| R.A. Dickey | 1.1874 |
1.5027
(218.7)
|
1.5440
(225.5)
|
| Kyle Lohse | 1.7826 |
1.3470
(191.5)
|
1.3987
(182.9)
|
| Josh Beckett | 1.5352 |
1.2186
(187.7)
|
1.1903
(222.3)
|
| Ryan Rowland-Smith | 1.6921 |
1.3194
(194.4)
|
1.3083
(216.3)
|
| Gio González | 1.3106 |
1.5731
(216.1)
|
1.5714
(187.6)
|
| James Shields | 1.4607 |
1.2650
(183.6)
|
1.2106
(261.1)
|
| Trevor Cahill | 1.1085 |
1.4203
(237.4)
|
1.4813
(260.4)
|
| Livan Hernandez | 1.3228 |
1.5588
(203.7)
|
1.6049
(216.6)
|
| Ian Kennedy | 1.2010 |
1.4966
(232.4)
|
1.4815
(194.5)
|
Individual Misses for WHIP
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Félix Hernández | 1.2756 | 1.0574 | 209.8 |
| 2 | Cliff Lee | 1.2526 | 1.0031 | 203.0 |
| 3 | Mat Latos | 1.3575 | 1.0830 | 198.8 |
| 4 | Adam Wainwright | 1.2652 | 1.0507 | 187.4 |
| 5 | Roberto Hernandez | 1.5264 | 1.3074 | 185.1 |
| 6 | Colby Lewis | 1.4122 | 1.1891 | 181.1 |
| 7 | Dallas Braden | 1.3968 | 1.1574 | 180.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Haren | 1.0805 | 1.2723 | 230.8 |
| 2 | Ricky Romero | 1.5864 | 1.2905 | 225.5 |
| 3 | Paul Maholm | 1.3539 | 1.5647 | 211.0 |
| 4 | Javier Vazquez | 1.1561 | 1.3983 | 193.0 |
| 5 | Scott Feldman | 1.3533 | 1.5991 | 183.4 |
| 6 | Scott Kazmir | 1.3581 | 1.5800 | 178.9 |
| 7 | Aaron Harang | 1.2719 | 1.5851 | 178.2 |